scholarly journals Cremation Based Estimates Suggest Significant Under- and Delayed Reporting of COVID-19 Epidemic Data in Wuhan and China

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mai He ◽  
Li Li ◽  
Weisi Yan ◽  
Louis P. Dehner ◽  
Lucia F. Dunn
Keyword(s):  
Doubling Time ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
Chinese Government ◽  
Rate Model ◽  
Starting Time ◽  
Related Information ◽  
Full Capacity ◽  
Chinese Official ◽  
Media Reports ◽  
Official Data

Abstract Objective:China’s COVID-19 statistics fall outside of recognized and accepted medical norms. Here we estimated the incidence, death and starting time of the COVID-19 outbreak in Wuhan and China based on cremation related information. Methods: Data sources included literature on COVID-19 in China, official Chinese government figures, and media reports. A range of estimates is presented by an exponential growth rate model. Results:For the cumulative infections and total deaths, under different assumptions of case fatality rates (from 2.5% to 10%) and doubling time 6.4 days, the estimates projected on February 7, 2020 in Wuhan range from 305,000 to 1,272,000 for infections and from 6,811 to 7,223 for deaths - on the order of at least 10 times the official figures (13,603 and 545). The implied starting time of the outbreak is October 2019. The estimates of cumulative deaths, based on both funeral urns distribution and continuous full capacity operation of cremation services up to March 23, 2020, give results around 36,000, more than 10 times of the official death toll of 2,524. Conclusions:Our study indicates a potential significant under- and delayed reporting in Chinese official data on the COVID-19 epidemic in Wuhan in early February, 2020.

scholarly journals Cremation based estimates suggest significant under- and delayed reporting of COVID-19 epidemic data in Wuhan and China

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mai He ◽  
Li Li ◽  
Louis P. Dehner ◽  
Lucia F. Dunn
Keyword(s):  
Critical Time ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
Chinese Government ◽  
Rate Model ◽  
Starting Time ◽  
Related Information ◽  
Full Capacity ◽  
Chinese Official ◽  
Media Reports ◽  
Official Data

AbstractBackgroundChina’s COVID-19 statistics fall outside of recognized and accepted medical norms. Here we estimated the incidence, death and starting time of the COVID-19 outbreak in Wuhan and China based on cremation related information.MethodsData sources included literature on COVID-19 in China, official Chinese government figures, state-run and non state-run media reports. Our estimates are based on investigative media reports of crematory operations in Wuhan, which is considered as a common data end point to life. A range of estimates is presented by an exponential growth rate model from lockdown (Jan 23,2020) until the intervention started to show effects, which was estimated 14.5 days after lockdown.ResultsFor the cumulative infections and total deaths, under different assumptions of case fatality rates (from 2.5% to 10%) and doubling time 6.4 days, the estimates projected on February 7, 2020 in Wuhan range from 305,000 to 1,272,000 for infections and from 6,811 to 7,223 for deaths - on the order of at least 10 times the official figures (13,603 and 545). The implied starting time of the outbreak is October 2019. The estimates of cumulative deaths, based on both funeral urns distribution and continuous full capacity operation of cremation services up to March 23, 2020, give results around 36,000, more than 10 times of the official death toll of 2,524.ConclusionsOur study indicates a significant under-reporting in Chinese official data on the COVID-19 epidemic in Wuhan in early February, the critical time for response to the COVID-19 pandemic.

Cremation based estimates suggest significant under- and delayed reporting of COVID-19 epidemic data in Wuhan and China (Preprint)

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mai He ◽  
Li Li ◽  
Louis P Dehner ◽  
Lucia Dunn
Keyword(s):  
Critical Time ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
Chinese Government ◽  
Rate Model ◽  
Starting Time ◽  
Related Information ◽  
Full Capacity ◽  
Chinese Official ◽  
Media Reports ◽  
Official Data

BACKGROUND China’s COVID-19 statistics fall outside of recognized and accepted medical norms. OBJECTIVE Here we estimated the incidence, death and starting time of the COVID-19 outbreak in Wuhan and China based on cremation related information. METHODS Data sources included literature on COVID-19 in China, official Chinese government figures, state-run and non state-run media reports. Our estimates are based on investigative media reports of crematory operations in Wuhan, which is considered as a common data end point to life. A range of estimates is presented by an exponential growth rate model from lockdown (Jan 23,2020) until the intervention started to show effects, which was estimated 14.5 days after lockdown. RESULTS For the cumulative infections and total deaths, under different assumptions of case fatality rates (from 2.5% to 10%) and doubling time 6.4 days, the estimates projected on February 7, 2020 in Wuhan range from 305,000 to 1,272,000 for infections and from 6,811 to 7,223 for deaths - on the order of at least 10 times the official figures (13,603 and 545). The implied starting time of the outbreak is October 2019. The estimates of cumulative deaths, based on both funeral urns distribution and continuous full capacity operation of cremation services up to March 23, 2020, give results around 36,000, more than 10 times of the official death toll of 2,524. CONCLUSIONS Our study indicates a significant under-reporting in Chinese official data on the COVID-19 epidemic in Wuhan in early February, the critical time for response to the COVID-19 pandemic. CLINICALTRIAL Not applicable

Impact of hydroxychloroquin/azithromycin protocol on COVID-19 case-fatality rate reduction in Algeria. (Preprint)

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ahmed Youssef Kada
Keyword(s):  
Case Fatality Rate ◽  
Doubling Time ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
World Health ◽  
Fatality Rate ◽  
Therapeutic Protocol ◽  
First Case ◽  
The World ◽  
The Impact ◽  
At Home

BACKGROUND Covid-19 is an emerging infectious disease like viral zoonosis caused by new coronavirus SARS CoV 2. On December 31, 2019, Wuhan Municipal Health Commission in Hubei province (China) reported cases of pneumonia, the origin of which is a new coronavirus. Rapidly extendable around the world, the World Health Organization (WHO) declares it pandemic on March 11, 2020. This pandemic reaches Algeria on February 25, 2020, date on which the Algerian minister of health, announced the first case of Covid-19, a foreign citizen. From March 1, a cluster is formed in Blida and becomes the epicentre of the coronavirus epidemic in Algeria, its total quarantine is established on March 24, 2020, it will be smoothly alleviated on April 24. A therapeutic protocol based on hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin was put in place on March 23, for complicated cases, it was extended to all the cases confirmed on April 06. OBJECTIVE This study aimed to demonstrate the effectiveness of hydroxychloroquin/azithromycin protocol in Algeria, in particular after its extension to all patients diagnosed COVID-19 positive on RT-PCR test. We were able to illustrate this fact graphically, but not to prove it statistically because the design of our study, indeed in the 7 days which followed generalization of therapeutic protocol, case fatality rate decrease and doubling time increase, thus confirming the impact of wide and early prescription of hydroxychloroquin/azithromycin protocol. METHODS We have analyzed the data collected from press releases and follow-ups published daily by the Ministry of Health, we have studied the possible correlations of these data with certain events or decisions having a possible impact on their development, such as confinement at home and its reduction, the prescription of hydroxychloroquine/azithromycin combination for serious patients and its extension to all positive COVID subjects. Results are presented in graphics, the data collection was closed on 31/05/2020. RESULTS Covid-19 pandemic spreads from February 25, 2020, when a foreign citizen is tested positive, on March 1 a cluster is formed in the city of Blida where sixteen members of the same family are infected during a wedding party. Wilaya of Blida becomes the epicentre of coronavirus epidemic in Algeria and lockdown measures taken, while the number of national cases diagnosed begins to increases In any event, the association of early containment measures combined with a generalized initial treatment for all positive cases, whatever their degree of severity, will have contributed to a reduction in the fatality rate of COVID 19 and a slowing down of its doubling time. CONCLUSIONS In Algeria, the rapid combination of rigorous containment measure at home and early generalized treatment with hydroxychloroquin have demonstrated their effectiveness in terms of morbidity and mortality, the classic measures of social distancing and hygiene will make it possible to perpetuate these results by reducing viral transmission, the only unknown, the reopening procedure which can only be started after being surrounded by precautions aimed at ensuring the understanding of the population. CLINICALTRIAL Algeria, Covid-19, pandemic, hydroxychloroquin, azithromycin, case fatality rate

scholarly journals IMPORTANT LESSONS FROM STUDYING THE CHINESE ECONOMY

2010 ◽  
Vol 55 (03) ◽  
pp. 419-434 ◽  
Author(s):  
GREGORY C. CHOW
Keyword(s):  
The United States ◽  
Chinese Economy ◽  
Economic Science ◽  
Republic Of China ◽  
Economic Advice ◽  
Chinese Official ◽  
The Government ◽  
The 1960S ◽  
Almost All ◽  
Official Data

In 1979 the United States and China established normal diplomatic relations, allowing me to visit China and study the Chinese economy. After doing so for 30 years since and advising the government of Taiwan in the 1960s and the 1970s and the government of the People's Republic of China in the 1980s and the 1990s, this is an opportune moment for me to summarize the important lessons I have learned. The lessons will be summarized in four parts: on economic science, on formulating economic policy and providing economic advice, on the special characteristics of the Chinese economy and on the experience of China's economic reform. At the beginning, I should comment on the quality of Chinese official data on which almost all quantitative studies referred to in this article were based. Chow (2006) has presented the view that by and large the official data are useful and fairly accurate. The main justification is that every time I tested an economic hypothesis or estimated an economic relation using the official data the result confirmed the well-established economic theory. It would be a miracle if I had the power to make the Chinese official statisticians fabricate data to support my hypotheses. Even if I had had the power, most of the data had already been published for years before I conceived the ideas of the studies reported in this article.

scholarly journals KONFLIK UIGHUR DI XINJIANG, CHINA: PEMAHAMAN DARI SUDUT PENDEKATAN SEGI TIGA KONFLIK GALTUNG

2021 ◽  
pp. 129-150
Author(s):  
CHE MOHD AZIZ BIN YAACOB ◽  
NOR AZURA A RAHMAN
Keyword(s):  
Ethnic Group ◽  
Social Conflict ◽  
Double Standard ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
Chinese Government ◽  
Secondary Sources ◽  
Psychological Element ◽  
Media Reports ◽  
The Government ◽  
Protracted Social Conflict

Pergolakan antara etnik Uighur dan Kerajaan China sudah lama diperkatakan. Bermula pada tahun 1949 sehingga kini, konflik ini masih belum reda malah mengakibatkan ribuan nyawa terkorban dan harta benda musnah. Kedua-dua pihak masih memperjuangkan matlamat dan kepentingan masing-masing dan belum bersedia untuk mencari penyelesaian. Penulisan ini memfokuskan kepada pendekatan Segi tiga Konflik sebagai alternatif untuk memahami konflik yang bersifat berulang-ulang ini (Protracted Social Conflict). Terdapat tiga elemen utama dalam Pendekatan Segi tiga Konflik iaitu Situasi, Sikap dan Tingkah laku. Ketiga elemen ini saling berkaitan antara satu sama lain yang mendorong kepada turun dan naik intensiti konflik. Penulisan ini merujuk kepada sumber-sumber sekunder yang melibatkan perbincangan dalam buku, jurnal, hasil kajian, laporan media dan lain-lain lagi. Data yang diperoleh ini kemudiannya dianalisis melalui pengaplikasian elemen Segi tiga Konflik sebagai alternatif memahami konflik yang berpanjangan tersebut. Kebergantungan antara tiga elemen ini membolehkan kita memahami punca-punca konflik tersebut terperangkap di intensiti yang ekstrem. Hasil daripada pengaplikasian elemen Segi tiga Konflik ini mendapati bahawa dari sudut ‘Situasi’, konflik tersebut berlaku akibat perebutan Wilayah Xinjiang (konflik material) antara etnik Uighur dan Kerajaan China dan kini telah bertukar kepada konflik nilai (agama dan identiti) sehingga sukar dikompromi dan diselesaikan. Begitu juga dengan elemen ‘Sikap’, apabila konflik yang berpanjangan tersebut telah meningkat elemen psikologi yang tidak terkawal seperti marah, benci, cemburu, imej musuh, stereotaip dan prejudis. Akhirnya, ia membentuk elemen ‘Tingkah laku’ yang memaksa, memujuk, mengugut, ancaman, diskriminasi, asimilasi  dan pembunuhan. Salah satu contoh ialah penahanan kem pendidikan dan vokasional ke atas etnik Uighur di Xinjiang yang merupakan tingkah laku asimilasi yang melibatkan ancaman dan ugutan; ia berkaitan dengan elemen psikologi stereotaip dan double standard Kerajaan China ke atas etnik Uighur.   The unrest between the Uighurs and the Chinese government has elongated for quite a long time. Since 1949, the conflict has not subsided and resulted in thousands of lives lost and property destruction. Both sides are still fighting for their respective goals and interests, and not ready to find solutions. This paper focuses on the Galtung’s Conflict Triangle Approach as an alternative to understand this recurring conflict (Protracted Social Conflict). There are three main elements in the Conflict Triangle Approach namely Situation, Attitude and Behavior. These three elements are interconnected, leading to escalated and de-escalated of conflict intensity. This paper has made reference to secondary sources involving discussions in books, journals, research results, media reports and others. In order to understand the protracted social conflict, the data obtained are analyzed using the application of the Conflict Triangle. The interdependence between these three elements allows us to understand the causes of this conflict is trapped in extreme intensity. As a result of the application of the Conflict Triangle elements, it is found that from the ‘Situation’ point of view, there is a dispute over Xinjiang province (material conflict) between the Uighur ethnic group and the Chinese government in which has turned into a values conflict (religion and identity) that is difficult to compromise and resolve. Attitude is found as an element from the protracted social conflict which was resulted to an uncontrollable psychological element such as anger,hatred, jealousy, enemy images, stereotypes and prejudice. Eventually, it forms the behavior element of coercion, persuasion, intimidation, threats,discrimination, assimilation and murder. One example is the establishment of educational and vocational detention camps for the Uighur ethnic group in Xinjiang. The camps are part of the assimilation strategy of the government to asimilate the Uighurs. The camps are reported to execute inhuman behavior involving threats and intimidation which relate to the stereotypical psychological elements and the Chinese government’s double standard on the Uighur ethnic group.

scholarly journals THE YASUKUNI SHRINE PROBLEM IN THE EAST ASIAN CONTEXT: RELIGION AND POLITICS IN MODERN JAPAN

2009 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 235-251
Author(s):  
Okuyama Michiaki
Keyword(s):  
East Asian ◽  
Religion And Politics ◽  
Chinese Government ◽  
Documentary Films ◽  
Court Cases ◽  
War Criminals ◽  
Chinese Official ◽  
Asian Context ◽  
Yasukuni Shrine ◽  
Asian People

The problem of issues surrounding Yasukuni Shrine is one of the main topics in religion and politics in contemporary Japan. This paper tries to approach the Yasukuni Shrine problem, first by contextualizing this problem in the East Asian settings, then by reviewing the recent court cases surrounding Yasukuni Shrine, and finally by commenting on two documentary films focusing on this problem. Examining the reactions by the Chinese government to the visits paid by Japanese politicians since the mid-1970s shows that these visits, to the place where the class A war criminals are enshrined, has been regarded in the Chinese official view as offensive to the victims of the aggressive wars of Japan. The recent court cases targeting mainly the former Prime Minister Koizumi’s repeated visits to Yasukuni Shrine are worth special attention because they have involved Koreans and Taiwanese besides Japanese as the plaintiffs. These cases have presented constitutional points of dispute for both Japanese and other Asian people. These situations have set the backdrop of the production and screening of the documentary films, Annyong, Sayonara (2005), and Yasukuni (2007). These two films illustrate not only the current problem of Yasukuni Shrine but also the surrounding setting of this problem in East Asia.

scholarly journals Chasing Ghosts: Rumours and Representations of the Export of Chinese Convict Labour to Developing Countries

2012 ◽  
Vol 210 ◽  
pp. 398-418 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yan Hairong ◽  
Barry Sautman
Keyword(s):  
Developing Countries ◽  
The Internet ◽  
Chinese Government ◽  
Grass Roots ◽  
Local Media ◽  
Chinese Official ◽  
Global Discourse ◽  
Recent Addition ◽  
Political Economic ◽  
Opposition Parties

AbstractA recent addition to the global discourse of China's interaction with developing countries has been the claim that the Chinese government exports prison labour to these countries. While no evidence is ever presented to support this claim, it has been widely circulated in international and local media, as well as on the internet. This article examines the origins of the rumour and the mechanisms of its transmission. It shows that while the rumour often originates at the grass roots in developing countries, it is promoted locally and globally by political, economic and media elites with distinct agendas that often involve building support for opposition parties, competition in obtaining contracts, or geo-strategic and ideological rivalry. We analyse the rumour's circulation in light of the larger discourse on China and developing countries, and discuss why Chinese official responses to the claim have proved to be ineffective.

scholarly journals Impact of Media Reports and Environmental Pollution on Health and Health Expenditure Efficiency

Healthcare ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 7 (4) ◽  
pp. 144
Author(s):  
Li ◽  
Chiu ◽  
Chen ◽  
Lin
Keyword(s):  
Environmental Pollution ◽  
Energy Use ◽  
Environmental Damage ◽  
Chinese Government ◽  
Media Report ◽  
Middle Income ◽  
Energy Environment ◽  
Media Reports ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Better Than

Over the past few decades, China’s rapid economic, energy, and industrial developments have caused serious environmental damage. However, as there are large resource, energy use, economic, and environmental damage differences across Chinese regions, the Chinese government is seeking to reduce city pollution across the country. Most previous analyses have only looked at these issues on a single level; for example, the impact of environmental pollution on health, or energy and environmental efficiency analyses, but there have been few studies that have conducted overall analyses. Further, many of the methods that have been used in previous research have employed one-stage radial or non-radial analyses without considering regional differences. Therefore, this paper developed a meta undesirable two-stage EBM DEA model to analyze the energy, environment, health, and media communication efficiencies in 31 Chinese cities, from which it was found that the productivity efficiency in most cities was better than the health treatment efficiencies, the GDP and fixed asset efficiency improvements were small, the air quality index (AQI) and CO2 efficiencies varied widely between the cities, media report and governance inputs were generally inefficient, the birth rate efficiencies were better than the respiratory disease efficiencies, and the technical gap was best in Guangzhou, Shanghai, and Lhasa. Also, it found that high-income cities have a higher technology gap than upper middle–income cities, and media reports efficiency have a high correlation with respiratory diseases and CO2.

scholarly journals Mass media representation of suicide in a high suicide state in India: an epidemiological comparison with suicide deaths in the population

BMJ Open ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (7) ◽  
pp. e030836 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gregory Armstrong ◽  
Lakshmi Vijayakumar ◽  
Jane Pirkis ◽  
Mala Jayaseelan ◽  
Anish Cherian ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mass Media ◽  
Tamil Nadu ◽  
Agricultural Sector ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
Epidemiological Data ◽  
Prevention Education ◽  
Daily Newspapers ◽  
The Media ◽  
Media Reports ◽  
Newspaper Articles

ObjectivesSuicide rates in India are among the highest in the world, equating to over 200 000 suicides annually. Reports of suicides are a routine feature in major newspapers in India, and reporters may selectively present ‘newsworthy’ suicide stories. The aim of this paper was to systematically investigate whether mass media reports of suicides reflect the epidemiological data on suicide in a high suicide state in India.DesignWe undertook a content analysis study to extract sociodemographic data on suicides reported among nine of the most highly read daily newspapers in the high suicide southern state of Tamil Nadu between June and December 2016. A total of 1258 newspaper articles were retrieved containing reports on 1631 suicides. Two-tailed binomial tests on aggregate frequencies assessed whether the sociodemographic characteristics of suicides in the newspaper articles were different to the population suicide statistics for Tamil Nadu.ResultsWe identified some statistically significant discrepancies between suicide characteristics in the population and the media. Suicides involving females (p<0.001), those aged under 30 years (p<0.001), separated or widowed males (p<0.001), unmarried females (p<0.001), those using methods with a higher case fatality rate (ie, hanging (p<0.001), jumping off high structures (p<0.001) and coming under vehicles (p<0.001) and those who were students (p<0.001) or working in the agricultural sector (p<0.001) were significantly over-reported relative to their occurrence in the broader population. Suicides involving men (p<0.001), those aged over 30 years and above (p<0.001), those who were married and suicides by poisoning (p<0.001) were significantly under-reported relative to their occurrence in the broader population.ConclusionsThe suicide characteristics in the print media were not entirely representative of suicides in the broader Tamil Nadu population, which may lead the general public to develop misunderstandings about suicide in their state. The discrepancies we identified will inform tailored suicide prevention education for media professionals.

scholarly journals Who Is Willing to Engage in Social Gatherings During the Coronavirus Disease 2019 Lockdown? A Curvilinear Relationship Between Age and Heuristic Processing

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kexin Wang ◽  
Siyue Li
Keyword(s):  
Older Adults ◽  
Young Adults ◽  
Underlying Mechanism ◽  
Curvilinear Relationship ◽  
Chinese Government ◽  
Demographic Information ◽  
Online Questionnaire ◽  
Related Information ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Heuristic Processing

BackgroundThe Chinese government implemented a lockdown to contain the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic during the Chinese Lunar New Year when people have the tradition to visit families and friends. Previous research suggested that heuristic processing increased risky behavioral willingness (e.g., desire to have social gatherings despite the pandemic) and that people’s tendency to use heuristic processing varied across different adulthood stages. This study thus investigated the relationships among age, heuristic processing of COVID-19-related information, and the willingness to have social gatherings during the lockdown.MethodsA sample of 1,651 participants was recruited from an online crowdsourcing platform between January 31 and February 04 in 2020, with a mean age of 30.69, 47.9% being women. Participants completed an online questionnaire about heuristic processing of COVID-19-related information, willingness to engage in social gatherings during the lockdown, age, and other demographic information.ResultsAge was found to have a U-shaped curvilinear relationship with heuristic processing, and heuristic processing was positively correlated with the willingness to have social gatherings. Further analyses showed that heuristic processing curvilinearly mediated the relationship between age and the willingness to have social gatherings.ConclusionCompared with young adults, emerging and older adults are more likely to engage in heuristic processing, which in turn, increases the willingness to have social gatherings. Heuristic processing serves as an underlying mechanism to explain the relationship between age and risky behavioral willingness.

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