scholarly journals Changes in Liver-related Mortality by Etiology and Sequelae: Underlying Versus Multiple Causes of Death

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ming-Jen Sheu ◽  
Fu-Wen Liang ◽  
Ching-Yih Lin ◽  
Tsung-Hsueh Lu

Abstract Background: The expanded definition of liver-related deaths includes a wide range of etiologies and sequelae. We compared the changes in liver-related mortality by etiology and sequelae for different age groups between 2008 and 2018 in the United States using both underlying and multiple cause of death (UCOD and MCOD) data. Methods: We extracted mortality data from the CDC WONDER. Both the absolute (rate difference) and relative (rate ratio and 95% confidence intervals) changes were calculated to quantify the magnitude of change using the expanded definition of liver-related mortality. Result: Using the expanded definition including secondary liver cancer and according to UCOD data, we identified 68,037 liver-related deaths among people aged 20 years and above in 2008 (29 per 100,000) and this increased to 90,635 in 2018 (33 per 100,000), a 13% increase from 2008 to 2018. However, according to MCOD data, the number of deaths was 113,219 (48 per 100,000) in 2008 and increased to 161,312 (58 per 100,000) in 2018, indicating a 20% increase. The increase according to MCOD was mainly due to increase in alcoholic liver disease and secondary liver cancer (liver metastasis) for each age group and hepatitis C virus (HCV) and primary liver cancer among decedents aged 65–74 years. Conclusion: The direction of mortality change (increasing or decreasing) was similar in UCOD and MCOD data in most etiologies and sequelae, except secondary liver cancer. However, the extent of change differed between UCOD and MCOD data.

2021 ◽  
Vol 19 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ming-Jen Sheu ◽  
Fu-Wen Liang ◽  
Ching-Yih Lin ◽  
Tsung-Hsueh Lu

Abstract Background The expanded definition of liver-related deaths includes a wide range of etiologies and sequelae. We compared the changes in liver-related mortality by etiology and sequelae for different age groups between 2008 and 2018 in the USA using both underlying and multiple cause of death (UCOD and MCOD) data. Methods We extracted mortality data from the CDC WONDER. Both the absolute (rate difference) and relative (rate ratio and 95% confidence intervals) changes were calculated to quantify the magnitude of change using the expanded definition of liver-related mortality. Result Using the expanded definition including secondary liver cancer and according to UCOD data, we identified 68,037 liver-related deaths among people aged 20 years and above in 2008 (29 per 100,000) and this increased to 90,635 in 2018 (33 per 100,000), a 13% increase from 2008 to 2018. However, according to MCOD data, the number of deaths was 113,219 (48 per 100,000) in 2008 and increased to 161,312 (58 per 100,000) in 2018, indicating a 20% increase. The increase according to MCOD was mainly due to increase in alcoholic liver disease and secondary liver cancer (liver metastasis) for each age group and hepatitis C virus (HCV) and primary liver cancer among decedents aged 65–74 years. Conclusion The direction of mortality change (increasing or decreasing) was similar in UCOD and MCOD data in most etiologies and sequelae, except secondary liver cancer. However, the extent of change differed between UCOD and MCOD data.


Author(s):  
Tim Rutherford-Johnson

By the start of the 21st century many of the foundations of postwar culture had disappeared: Europe had been rebuilt and, as the EU, had become one of the world’s largest economies; the United States’ claim to global dominance was threatened; and the postwar social democratic consensus was being replaced by market-led neoliberalism. Most importantly of all, the Cold War was over, and the World Wide Web had been born. Music After The Fall considers contemporary musical composition against this changed backdrop, placing it in the context of globalization, digitization, and new media. Drawing on theories from the other arts, in particular art and architecture, it expands the definition of Western art music to include forms of composition, experimental music, sound art, and crossover work from across the spectrum, inside and beyond the concert hall. Each chapter considers a wide range of composers, performers, works, and institutions are considered critically to build up a broad and rich picture of the new music ecosystem, from North American string quartets to Lebanese improvisers, from South American electroacoustic studios to pianos in the Australian outback. A new approach to the study of contemporary music is developed that relies less on taxonomies of style and technique, and more on the comparison of different responses to common themes, among them permission, fluidity, excess, and loss.


2020 ◽  
Vol 30 (Supplement_5) ◽  
Author(s):  
L Kazmer ◽  
I Kulhanova ◽  
M Lustigova

Abstract Background In Czechia, alcohol-induced deaths account for a significant portion of preventable mortality. As inequalities in health are both socially and spatially determined, the paper aims at the detailed examination of socio-geographic inequalities of this phenomenon. Methods The 2011-2015 annual data on both ICD-10 cause-specific deaths (K70; F10; X45/64; Y15) and mid-year population were obtained from the official Czech registries - the data were cross-classified by gender, 5-year age-groups, and permanent residence (N = 6,302 small area spatial units). The selected socio-demographic indicators (education, unemployment, religious population) from the Czech 2011 Census were spatially merged to the mortality dataset. From the data on education and unemployment, composite deprivation index (DI) was derived. In the adult population aged 25+, the age-standardised mortality ratios (SMR) were computed for each of the spatial units, separately by genders. The SMRs were spatially modelled by the Besag-York-Mollié (BYM) autoregressive approach, applying a fully bayesian framework integrated within the INLA R-package. The study applied cross-sectional design and employed ecological regression conducted on observational data. Results Compared to the Czech average, the highest SMRs were located in the historical regions of Moravia [SMR=1.15; 95%CI: 1.11-1.19] and Silesia [SMR=1.59; 95%CI: 1.52-1.66]. The SMRs were significantly correlated with DI among males [Rel.Risk=1.15; 95%CI: 1.11-1.19], and with religiousness rate among females [Rel.Risk=0.83; 95%CI: 0.77-0.90]. Conclusions Significant socio-geographic inequalities were detected, particularly with respect to the Czech historical regions. Among males, higher mortality was associated with a structural deprivation. Among females, protective effect of religiousness rate was found to be significant. The results highlight an importance of both socially and spatially integrated efforts for public health promotion. Key messages The inequalities in health are both socially and spatially contextualised. The paper presents robust empirical evidence in favour of the proposition, as examined on alcohol-related mortality data. The health determinants may be gender sensitive. Males might be more responsive to a structural disadvantage. Among females, cultural factors related to a local community might be more relevant.


Author(s):  
В. М. Мерабишвили ◽  
В. К. Гуркало ◽  
Э. Н. Мерабишвили

Рак печени (РП) - тяжелейшая онкопатология. В России смертность превышает число первично-учтенных больных в среднем. Ежегодно в России регистрируют более 8 тыс. (8 810 - в 2018 г.) случаев рака печени и более 10 тыс. (10 018 - в 2018 г.) случаев смерти от этой причины. Использованы стандартные методы медицинской статистики, все зарегистрированные первичные случаи РП в России. Углубленная разработка материала проведена на основе базы данных Популяционного ракового регистра Северо-Западного Федерального округа РФ. Проанализированы данные всего комплекса доступной информации в целом по России. Установлен прирост заболеваемости РП населения России за 18 лет в «грубых» показателях и абсолютных числах на 20% и в стандартизованных - на 1,22%. У женщин отмечено снижение учтенных случаев РП на 4,55%. Смертность населения России в стандартизованных показателях снизилась за 18 лет практически на 3%. Превышение числа умерших над заболевшими от РП существенно возрастает в старших возрастных группах. Индекс достоверности учета (ИДУ) - это отношение абсолютных чисел или «грубых» показателей смертности населения к заболеваемости. Для всех злокачественных новообразований (ЗНО) величина в среднем по России составила 0,47, практически совпадающая со среднеевропейской. ИДУ у мужчин - 0,55, выше расчетных показателей для женщин - 0,40, что в первую очередь связано с более благоприятной структурой заболеваемости женщин ЗНО. Медиана выживаемости первичных больных РП составляет немногим более 3 мес. Пятилетняя выживаемость больных РП даже на ранних стадиях составляет у лиц моложе 60 лет с I стадией - 25,3%, старше 60 лет - только 17,2%, со II стадией - 17,9 и 11% соответственно. Liver cancer is a severe oncopathology. Mortality exceeds the number of primary-accounted patients in Russia on average. Every year in Russia more than eight thousand (8 810 in 2018) cases of liver cancer and more than 10 000 (10 018 in 2018) deaths from this cause are registered. Used Standard methods of medical statistics, all registered primary cases of liver cancer in Russia. In-depth development of the material was carried out on the basis of the database of the Population cancer register of the North-Western Federal district of the Russian Federation. The analysis of the data of the whole complex of available information in Russia as a whole is carried out. In-depth data development was carried out on the basis of the database of the Population cancer register of the North-Western Federal district of the Russian Federation. The increase in the incidence of liver cancer in Russia over 18 years in «rough» indicators and absolute numbers by 20 % and in standardized by 1,22 % was established. In women, there was a decrease in reported cases of liver cancer by 4,55 %. The mortality rate of the Russian population in standardized indicators has decreased by almost 3 % over 18 years. The excess of the number of deaths over those from liver cancer increases significantly in older age groups. The index of reliability of accounting is the ratio of absolute numbers or «rough» indicators of mortality to morbidity. For all malignant tumors, its value on average in Russia was 0,47, almost coinciding with the average European. The index of reliability of accounting for men is 0,55, higher than the calculated indicators for women - 0,40, which is primarily due to a more favorable structure of the incidence of malignant tumors in women. The median survival of primary liver cancer patients is a little more than three months. The fi ve-year survival rate of patients with liver cancer even in the early stages is in the first among persons younger than 60 years - 25,3 %, over 60 years - only 17,2 %, in the second, respectively, 17,9 and 11%.


Author(s):  
Jon Zelner ◽  
Rob Trangucci ◽  
Ramya Naraharisetti ◽  
Alex Cao ◽  
Ryan Malosh ◽  
...  

Background. As of August 5, 2020, there were more than 4.8M confirmed and probable cases and 159K deaths attributable to SARS-CoV-2 in the United States, with these numbers undoubtedly reflecting a significant underestimate of the true toll. Geographic, racial-ethnic, age and socioeconomic disparities in exposure and mortality are key features of the first and second wave of the U.S. COVID-19 epidemic. Methods. We used individual-level COVID-19 incidence and mortality data from the U.S. state of Michigan to estimate age-specific incidence and mortality rates by race/ethnic group. Data were analyzed using hierarchical Bayesian regression models, and model results were validated using posterior predictive checks. Findings. In crude and age-standardized analyses we found rates of incidence and mortality more than twice as high than Whites for all groups other than Native Americans. Of these, Blacks experienced the greatest burden of confirmed and probable COVID-19 infection (Age- standardized incidence = 1,644/100,000 population) and mortality (age-standardized mortality rate 251/100,000). These rates reflect large disparities, as Blacks experienced age-standardized incidence and mortality rates 5.6 (95% CI = 5.5, 5.7) and 6.9 (6.5, 7.3) times higher than Whites, respectively. We also found that the bulk of the disparity in mortality between Blacks and Whites is driven by dramatically higher rates of COVID-19 infection across all age groups, particularly among older adults, rather than age-specific variation in case-fatality rates. Interpretation. This work suggests that well-documented racial disparities in COVID-19 mortality in hard-hit settings, such as the U.S. state of Michigan, are driven primarily by variation in household, community and workplace exposure rather than case-fatality rates. Funding. This work was supported by a COVID-PODS grant from the Michigan Institute for Data Science (MIDAS) at the University of Michigan. The funding source had no role in the preparation of this manuscript.


Author(s):  
Carlos H. B. Morais ◽  
Danilo T. M. P. Abreu ◽  
Joaquim Santos ◽  
Marcos C. Maturana ◽  
Danilo Colombo ◽  
...  

Abstract Among the stochastic tools and risk analysis techniques, ALARP (As Low As Reasonably Practicable) concept has proved to be the most influential guidance regarding the development of regulations and standards of the offshore industry in terms of risk assessment and consequently of equipment integrity. The reasons for that can be traced back to early seventies, when the British Health and Safety Executive (HSE) released its seminal document “The Health and Safety at Work etc. Act 1974”. The 1974 Act was the first regulation to adopt a non-prescriptive approach as a basis to configure the ruling legislation of industrial activities. Since then, risk analysis methods have encountered a vast field of opportunities in the wide range of options proportionated by such framework. In this sense, the Safety Case and the NORSOK standards play a significant role in the non-prescriptive approach application in the offshore industry. The present work discusses the influence of these two frameworks in the definition of the current Brazilian offshore legislation, especially in terms of the design, tests, and monitoring of the so called Solidary Well Barriers throughout the well life cycle. The United States legislation, largely reviewed after the Macondo accident, will be used to counterpoint the prescriptive and non-prescriptive approaches.


2005 ◽  
Vol 46 (1) ◽  
pp. 127-129
Author(s):  
Harry Elam

Over the more than twenty years since the publication of two profoundly influential collections—Errol Hill's two-volume anthology of critical essays The Theatre of Black Americans (1980) and James V. Hatch's first edition of the play anthology Black Theatre USA (1974)—there has been considerable activity in African American theatre scholarship. Yet even as scholars have produced new collections of historical and critical essays that cover a wide range of African American theatre history, book-length studies that document particular moments in the historical continuum such as the Harlem Renaissance, and Samuel Hay's broader study African American Theatre: An Historical and Critical Analysis (1994), no one until now has written a comprehensive study of African American theatre history. Into this void have stepped two of the aforementioned distinguished scholars of African American theatre, Errol G. Hill and James V. Hatch. To be certain, writing a comprehensive history of African American theatre poses a daunting challenge for anyone hearty enough to undertake it. Where to begin? What to include and exclude? With their study, A History of African American Theatre, Hill and Hatch show themselves indeed worthy of the challenge. They explore the evolution of African American theatre across time and space, documenting the particular efforts of artists, writers, scholars, and practitioners, from inside as well as outside the United States, that have had an impact on our understanding of African American theatre. The authors make clear that the definition of African American theatre from the beginning has been in constant flux and that it has been affected by the changing social times in American as much as it has influenced those times.


Author(s):  
Mélodie Monod ◽  
Alexandra Blenkinsop ◽  
Xiaoyue Xi ◽  
Daniel Hebert ◽  
Sivan Bershan ◽  
...  

Following initial declines, in mid 2020, a resurgence in transmission of novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has occurred in the United States and parts of Europe. Despite the wide implementation of non-pharmaceutical interventions, it is still not known how they are impacted by changing contact patterns, age and other demographics. As COVID-19 disease control becomes more localised, understanding the age demographics driving transmission and how these impacts the loosening of interventions such as school reopening is crucial. Considering dynamics for the United States, we analyse aggregated, age-specific mobility trends from more than 10 million individuals and link these mechanistically to age-specific COVID-19 mortality data. In contrast to previous approaches, we link mobility to mortality via age-specific contact patterns and use this rich relationship to reconstruct accurate transmission dynamics. Contrary to anecdotal evidence, we find little support for age-shifts in contact and transmission dynamics over time. We estimate that, until August, 63.4% [60.9%-65.5%] of SARS-CoV-2 infections in the United States originated from adults aged 20-49, while 1.2% [0.8%-1.8%] originated from children aged 0- 9. In areas with continued, community-wide transmission, our transmission model predicts that re-opening kindergartens and elementary schools could facilitate spread and lead to additional COVID-19 attributable deaths over a 90-day period. These findings indicate that targeting interventions to adults aged 20-49 are an important consideration in halting resurgent epidemics and preventing COVID-19-attributable deaths when kindergartens and elementary schools reopen.


2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 95-106
Author(s):  
Scott C. Sheridan ◽  
P. Grady Dixon ◽  
Adam J. Kalkstein ◽  
Michael J. Allen

AbstractMuch research has shown a general decrease in the negative health response to extreme heat events in recent decades. With a society that is growing older, and a climate that is warming, whether this trend can continue is an open question. Using eight additional years of mortality data, we extend our previous research to explore trends in heat-related mortality across the United States. For the period 1975–2018, we examined the mortality associated with extreme-heat-event days across the 107 largest metropolitan areas. Mortality response was assessed over a cumulative 10-day lag period following events that were defined using thresholds of the excess heat factor, using a distributed-lag nonlinear model. We analyzed total mortality and subsets of age and sex. Our results show that in the past decade there is heterogeneity in the trends of heat-related human mortality. The decrease in heat vulnerability continues among those 65 and older across most of the country, which may be associated with improved messaging and increased awareness. These decreases are offset in many locations by an increase in mortality among men 45–64 (+1.3 deaths per year), particularly across parts of the southern and southwestern United States. As heat-warning messaging broadly identifies the elderly as the most vulnerable group, the results here suggest that differences in risk perception may play a role. Further, an increase in the number of heat events over the past decade across the United States may have contributed to the end of a decades-long downward trend in the estimated number of heat-related fatalities.


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