scholarly journals Worldwide Testing of the Snowmelt Runoff Model with Applications for Predicting the Effects of Climate Change

1992 ◽  
Vol 23 (3) ◽  
pp. 155-172 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Rango

The Snowmelt-Runoff Model (SRM), a simple degree-day model, has been applied to over 50 basins in 15 countries around the world. Where results have been reported, the average R2 has been 0.84 and the average seasonal volume difference, Dv, has been 3.8 %. The testing of SRM has taken place on basins in different climatic regions, thus setting the stage for using SRM in evaluations of the hydrological effects of climate change. A method for using SRM in evaluations of climate change has been established and tested on several basins. Initial results show some potentially serious problems involving water supply, flooding, and drought. More testing in a variety of climatic regions is necessary along with improved specification of the changes in temperature and precipitation by region.

Author(s):  
Sudeep Pokhrel ◽  
Saraswati Thapa

Water from snow-melt is crucial to provide ecosystem services in downstream of the Himalayas. To study the fate of snow hydrology, an integrated modeling system has been developed coupling Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM) outputs with Snowmelt Runoff Model (SRM) in the Dudhkoshi Basin, Nepal. The SRM model is well-calibrated in 2011 and validated in 2012 and 2014 using MODIS satellite data. The annual average observed and simulated discharges for the calibration year are 177.89 m3 /s and 181.47 m3 /s respectively. To assess future climate projections for the periods 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s, the SDSM model is used for downscaling precipitation, maximum temperature, and minimum temperature from the Canadian GCM model (CanESM2) under three different scenarios RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. All considered scenarios are significant in predicting increasing trends of maximumminimum temperature and precipitation and the storehouse of freshwater in the mountains is expected to deplete rapidly if global warming continues.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
◽  
Mpumelelo Dolo

Water is regarded as the most important substance found on earth. There is no substitute for it. The daily running of production businesses, industrial firms and agricultural production that help sustain the economy of countries are largely dependent on the availability of water for them to function. The importance of water cannot be over emphasised. The food which is consumed daily depends on water; it can therefore be safely concluded that without water there would be no food, and without food there would be no life. Despite the importance of water in relation to human life, animals and plants, research studies show that the its availability becoming increasingly deficient around the globe. Water levels of major dams and rivers around the world are dropping, limiting the supply of potable water to those dependent on them. Global warming is one factor that is influencing the dropping of water levels, through evaporation. Other factors include climate change, drought and population growth. In South Africa, the government has been fighting a continuous battle of trying to address the backlog of water infrastructure, particularly in the areas which were disadvantaged by the apartheid government. These areas include rural areas, small towns (semi-urban) and townships. The Eastern Cape province in South Africa is top of the list from a backlog point of view. Rural dwellers migrate to urban areas for various reasons such as better education, better health care, job opportunities and more efficient services. Water supply is one of the services which is more adequately supplied in the cities compared to the rural areas. Even though the supplied water in the urban areas of the Eastern Cape is not the best standard when compared to other cities around the country or the world, it is still at an acceptable standard. Thus, this study was conducted to seek ways of improving the supply of water in the urban and rural areas of the Eastern Cape. The availability and the quality of water differs between the urban and rural areas. The purpose of this study was to seek ways of bridging the gap between these areas while improving the standard of water supply in both rural and urban areas. While working towards improving the lives of the Eastern Cape people, the study also seeks to promote water preservation and awareness to the people of the province. In order to find better alternatives which have been tested in various places around the world, an in-depth literature review was conducted in the study. This functioned as an effective comparison of what is obtained in different places around the world and the context of this study, which is the Eastern Cape. A survey method was used to gather data regarding the problems surrounding water supply and options that could be adopted to remedy those problems. The survey was conducted in the form of a self-observation assessment, questionnaire for households in urban and rural areas and interview sessions with prominent government entities and local technical service providers. The survey covered the whole spectrum of individuals and groups that play a major role in the supply and usage of water. The study was conducted within three municipalities of the Eastern Cape. These municipalities cover approximately two-third of the Eastern Cape considering the size of population in those areas. The municipalities covered by the study were: Amathole District Municipality (ADM), Buffalo City Metropolitan Municipality (BCMM) and OR Tambo District Municipality (ORTDM). The findings from the study showed that indeed the standard of water supply between urban and rural areas was not equal. This relates to the purification methods, the convenience of collecting water by users, the quality of infrastructure being constructed (due to good or poor monitoring during construction) and the quality of the water as well as operation and maintenance response from the various service providers. Moreover, it was found that there was an acceptable level of awareness by citizens when it comes to using water, and precautions to save it were being taken by some. However, some dominant factors such as poor management, poor infrastructure resulting in leaks, climate change, run-offs and population growth were putting a strain on the existing water resources which is not coping with the increasing demand by people. Recommendations made in the study to balance the supply of water in rural areas and urban areas include: improving the purification of water so as to achieve a standard quality within the Eastern Cape; that rural areas be allowed to have an option of having yard or house connections, particularly those who are willing to pay rates at a scale suiting their class or standard; and that water service providers make it their responsibility to extend reticulation networks if there is expansion or development of more houses in rural areas in order to keep the distance minimal to standpipes


Pakistan is a highly vulnerable country in the world to climate change. It is ranked among the five most affected countries in the world. Sindh, among the provinces of Pakistan, is located in the southern part and it stands to suffer not only directly from local climatic and weather changes but also from the weather activities in the upstream Indus River and from the coastal environments. This study aims to examine the past trend and future projections of climate variables, assess the climate change impacts on agriculture sector, and recommend adaptation measures for Sindh. The results show that there is statistically significant trend in the temperature and precipitation in some parts of Sindh. The results from climate change projections show that the average annual temperature in Sindh by the end of 21st century may increase by 2 to 5 0C depending on various emission scenarios. Furthermore, the climate change in Sindh is likely to decrease productivity of agriculture and household income. The study recommends infrastructural development, technological change, institutional reforms, information sharing, and effective regulations to make agriculture sector and other related sectors resilient to climate change.


2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (12) ◽  
pp. 1951 ◽  
Author(s):  
Til Prasad Pangali Sharma ◽  
Jiahua Zhang ◽  
Narendra Raj Khanal ◽  
Foyez Ahmed Prodhan ◽  
Basanta Paudel ◽  
...  

The Himalayan region, a major source of fresh water, is recognized as a water tower of the world. Many perennial rivers originate from Nepal Himalaya, located in the central part of the Himalayan region. Snowmelt water is essential freshwater for living, whereas it poses flood disaster potential, which is a major challenge for sustainable development. Climate change also largely affects snowmelt hydrology. Therefore, river discharge measurement requires crucial attention in the face of climate change, particularly in the Himalayan region. The snowmelt runoff model (SRM) is a frequently used method to measure river discharge in snow-fed mountain river basins. This study attempts to investigate snowmelt contribution in the overall discharge of the Budhi Gandaki River Basin (BGRB) using satellite remote sensing data products through the application of the SRM model. The model outputs were validated based on station measured river discharge data. The results show that SRM performed well in the study basin with a coefficient of determination (R2) >0.880. Moreover, this study found that the moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) snow cover data and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) meteorological datasets are highly applicable to the SRM in the Himalayan region. The study also shows that snow days have slightly decreased in the last three years, hence snowmelt contribution in overall discharge has decreased slightly in the study area. Finally, this study concludes that MOD10A2 and ECMWF precipitation and two-meter temperature products are highly applicable to measure snowmelt and associated discharge through SRM in the BGRB. Moreover, it also helps with proper freshwater planning, efficient use of winter water flow, and mitigating and preventive measures for the flood disaster.


Water ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (11) ◽  
pp. 2417 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yiheng Xiang ◽  
Lu Li ◽  
Jie Chen ◽  
Chong-Yu Xu ◽  
Jun Xia ◽  
...  

The impacts of climate change on water resources in snow- and glacier-dominated basins are of great importance for water resource management. The Snowmelt Runoff Model (SRM) was developed to simulate and predict daily streamflow for high mountain basins where snowmelt runoff is a major contributor. However, there are many sources of uncertainty when using an SRM for hydrological simulations, such as low-quality input data, imperfect model structure and model parameters, and uncertainty from climate scenarios. Among these, the identification of model parameters is considered to be one of the major sources of uncertainty. This study evaluates the parameter uncertainty for SRM simulation based on different calibration strategies, as well as its impact on future hydrological projections in a data-scarce deglaciating river basin. The generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) method implemented by Monte Carlo sampling was used to estimate the model uncertainty arising from parameters calibrated by means of different strategies. Future snowmelt runoff projections under climate change impacts in the middle of the century and their uncertainty were assessed using average annual hydrographs, annual discharge and flow duration curves as the evaluation criteria. The results show that: (1) the strategy with a division of one or two sub-period(s) in a hydrological year is more appropriate for SRM calibration, and is also more rational for hydrological climate change impact assessment; (2) the multi-year calibration strategy is also more stable; and (3) the future runoff projection contains a large amount of uncertainty, among which parameter uncertainty plays a significant role. The projections also indicate that the onset of snowmelt runoff is likely to shift earlier in the year, and the discharge over the snowmelt season is projected to increase. Overall, this study emphasizes the importance of considering the parameter uncertainty of time-varying hydrological processes in hydrological modelling and climate change impact assessment.


Agriculture ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (6) ◽  
pp. 212 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shahzad Alvi ◽  
Faisal Jamil ◽  
Roberto Roson ◽  
Martina Sartori

Greenhouse gas emissions cause climate change, and agriculture is the most vulnerable sector. Farmers do have some capability to adapt to changing weather and climate, but this capability is contingent on many factors, including geographical and socioeconomic conditions. Assessing the actual adaptation potential in the agricultural sector is therefore an empirical issue, to which this paper contributes by presenting a study examining the impacts of climate change on cereal yields in 55 developing and developed countries, using data from 1991 to 2015. The results indicate that cereal yields are affected in all regions by changes in temperature and precipitation, with significant differences in certain macro-regions in the world. In Southern Asia and Central Africa, farmers fail to adapt to climate change. The findings suggest that the world should focus more on enhancing adaptive capacity to moderate potential damage and on coping with the consequences of climate change.


2016 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 109-118
Author(s):  
Hedayatullah Arian ◽  
Rijan B. Kayastha ◽  
Bikas C. Bhattarai ◽  
Ahuti Shresta ◽  
Hafizullah Rasouli ◽  
...  

This study is carried out on the Salang River basin, which is located at the northern part of the Kabul River basin, and in the south facing slope of the Hindu Kush Mountains. The basin drains through the Salang River, which is one of the tributaries of the Panjshir River. The basin covers an area of 485.9km2 with a minimum elevation of 1653 m a.s.l. and a maximum elevation of 4770 m a.s.l. The Salang River sustains a substantial flow of water in summer months due to the melting of snow. In this study, we estimate daily discharge of Salang River from 2009 to 2011 using the Snowmelt Runoff Model (SRM, Version 1.12, 2009), originally developed by J. Martinec in 1975. The model uses daily observed precipitation, air temperature and snow cover data as input variables from which discharge is computed. The model is calibrated for the year 2009 and validated for 2010 and 2011. The observed and calculated annual average discharges for the calibration year 2009 are 11.57m3s-1 and 10.73m3s-1, respectively. Similarly, the observed and calculated annual average discharges for the validation year 2010 are 11.55m3s-1 and 10.07m3s-1, respectively and for 2011, the discharges are 9.05 m3s-1 and 9.6m3s-1, respectively. The model is also tested by changing temperature and precipitation for the year 2009. With an increase of 1°C in temperature and 10% in precipitation, the increases in discharge for winter, summer and annually are 21.8%, 13.5% and 14.8%, respectively. With an increase of 2°C in temperature and 20% in precipitation, the increases are 48.5%, 43.3% and 44.1%, respectively. The results obtained suggest that the SRM can be used as a promising tool to estimate the river discharge of the snow fed mountainous river basins of Afghanistan and to study the impact of climate change on river flow pattern of such basins.Journal of Hydrology and Meteorology, Vol. 9(1) 2015, p.109-118


2012 ◽  
Vol 13 (3) ◽  
pp. 837-855 ◽  
Author(s):  
Peter R. Furey ◽  
Stephanie K. Kampf ◽  
Jordan S. Lanini ◽  
Andre Q. Dozier

Abstract This study presents a modeling approach for examining how changes in climate affect streamflow in mesoscale mountain basins dominated by snowmelt runoff. A conceptual snowmelt-runoff model was developed that is forced by daily time series of temperature and precipitation. The model can be run using either observed climate data or artificial climate data generated from a GCM or a stochastic model. The model was applied to a case-study basin, the north fork of the Clearwater River in Idaho, using stochastically generated climate scenarios. Climate scenarios were generated using a contemporaneous auto-regressive integrated moving average (CARIMA) model for temperature and a precipitation model based on a two-state first-order Markov process. A baseline climate scenario was developed that represents recently observed temperature and precipitation conditions and then 15 additional climate scenarios that represent shifts in recent conditions. For each scenario, model application produced an ensemble of 50 streamflow traces each spanning 30 yr. Results show that an increase in temperature among scenarios leads to a decrease in streamflow and vice versa. Decreases in temperature shift the basin runoff to fully snowmelt dominated, whereas increases in temperature increase the frequency of midwinter runoff events. Increasing precipitation leads to increased runoff in cases where the temperature remains the same as the observed record, but not in cases where the temperature increases. The modeling approach presented here can be used by water managers to examine which types of climate change could require modifications in water planning and operations.


1997 ◽  
Vol 25 ◽  
pp. 232-236 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Rango

The cryosphere is represented in some hydrological models by the arcal extent of snow cover, a variable that has been operationally available in recent years through remote sensing. In particular, the snowmelt runoff model (SRM) requires the remotely sensed snow-cover extent as a major input variable. The SRM is well-suited for simulating the hydrological response of a basin to hypothetical climate change because it is a non-calibrated model. In order to run the SRM in a climate-change mode, the response of the areal snow cover to a change in climate is critical, and must be calculated as a function of elevation, precipitation, temperature, and snow-water equivalent. For the snowmelt-runoff season, the effect of climate change on conditions in the winter months has a major influence. In a warmer climate, winter may experience more rain vs snow events, and more periods of winter snowmelt that reduce the snow water equivalent present in the basin at the beginning of spring snow melt. As a result, the spring snowmelt runoff under conditions of climate warming will be affected not only by different temperatures and precipitation, but also by a different snow cover with a changed depletion rate. A new radiation-based version of the SRM is under development that will also take changes in cloudiness and humidity into account, making climate-change studies of the cryosphere even more physically based.


1979 ◽  
Vol 10 (4) ◽  
pp. 225-238 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Rango ◽  
J. Martinec

The snowmelt-runoff model developed by Martinec (1975) has been used to simulate daily streamflow on the 228 km2 Din woody Creek basin in Wyoming, U.S.A. using snowcover extent from Landsat and conventionally measured temperature and precipitation. For the six-month snowmelt seasons of 1976 and 1974 the simulated seasonal runoff volumes were within 5 and 1%, respectively, of the measured runoff. Also the daily fluctuations of discharge were simulated to a high degree by the model. Thus far the limiting basin size for applying the model has not been reached, and improvements can be expected if the hydrometeorological data can be obtained from a station inside the basin. Landsat provides an efficient way to obtain the critical snowcover input parameter required by the model.


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