scholarly journals Expert assessment method in foresight studies

2019 ◽  
Vol 16 (4) ◽  
pp. 4-13
Author(s):  
O. I. Karasev ◽  
E. I. Mukanina
Keyword(s):  
Delphi Method ◽  
Research Work ◽  
Assessment Method ◽  
Theoretical Research ◽  
Expert Assessment ◽  
Advantages And Disadvantages ◽  
Expert Model ◽  
Expert Assessments ◽  
Necessary And Sufficient ◽  
Selection Of

Purpose of the study. The main goal of this research is to identify key aspects of expert assessments and offer high-quality recommendations for their improvement.Materials and methods. Foresight is built on the basis of expert assessment method, includes: active formation of the image of the future instead of its probabilistic prediction, focus on identifying key development priorities, participation in the study of key stakeholders, the relationship with the management decision-making process. The methods of analysis used in the work suggest methods of theoretical research in the form of analysis and modeling. In the course of the research, the following tasks were solved: firstly, the Expert model was formed based on the necessary and sufficient criteria for selecting respondents to the foresight study; secondly, the main characteristics of the Delphi method for consensus decisions in expert groups were identified. The research work considers various sources of information, which became the basis for the further development of the Expert model, based on an integrated approach based on the statistical, sociological and economic fields of science.Results. On the basis of bibliometric analysis, important criteria for the selection of experts were highlighted: a practical component, a theoretical component, a creative component, an assessment of belonging to a field of study, an assessment of work in a study, an adjustment of results. The relevance of the selection of an expert greatly influences the result of the foresight, therefore, there is a need for a balanced selection of respondents to the study. Foresight studies have a distinctive feature from other areas in that the result is the achievement of consensus between experts in the subject area. Decision makers are drawn from three areas of activity business, government, science. In this regard, criteria for the selection of respondents were formed, which imply the necessary and sufficient conditions. The necessary criteria are understood as such parameters, without which the characteristics of the expert do not allow the respondent to be an expert for this study. A sufficient condition for the participation of the decision maker in the foresight analysis implies such selection criteria, which are complementary characteristics of the expert, which do not need to prove that the expert is a suitable expert for a specific study. As a result, four necessary criteria for the selection of experts for groups were identified, as well as individual sufficient criteria for each group. The process of carrying out the Delphi method is considered, the advantages and disadvantages are determined, on the basis of which the resulting indicator is proposed the foresight research reliability index.Conclusion. The method of selection of experts allows a comprehensive approach to the problem in the field of formation of expert groups based on the introduction of digital technologies that improves the qualitative characteristics of foresight research. The confidence index, as a result indicator, determines the objectivity of the study based on expert assessments.

scholarly journals Selection of optimal thickness of thermal insulation of modular buildings on the basis of multicriterial analysis

2020 ◽  
pp. 82-91
Author(s):  
V. Zhelykh ◽  
◽  
Yu. Furdas ◽  
S. Shapoval ◽  
M. Rebman ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Thermal Insulation ◽  
Multicriteria Analysis ◽  
Theoretical Research ◽  
Expert Assessment ◽  
Insulation Material ◽  
Modular Construction ◽  
Optimal Thickness ◽  
Short Period ◽  
Modular Buildings ◽  
Selection Of

Today modular construction is gaining popularity in the arrangement of production facilities. The purpose of the research is the theoretical substantiation of the choice of the optimal thickness of thermal insulation for external protections of modular buildings taking into account the evaluation criteria based on the method of hierarchy analysis. The article reflects the possibility of using modular buildings for residential and public needs. Given the peculiarities of the use of thermal insulation materials, such structures are erected in a short period of time due to the use of ready-made modules. It is also proposed to use multicriteria analysis to compare different thicknesses of thermal insulation of a modular building. The obtained results are presented in the form of petal diagrams and diagrams of global priorities, which made it possible to make an in-depth assessment of several thicknesses of thermal insulation. When conducting theoretical research, it should be noted that the importance of each of the criteria was taken into account for the selection of thermal insulation. An expert assessment was performed to determine the thickness of thermal insulation, which can be used for lightweight prefabricated structures of modular buildings. As a result of research, it was found that the most suitable thermal insulation material is polyurethane.

TOOLS FOR ASSESSING THE COMPETITIVENESS OF A COMMERCIAL ENTERPRISE

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (9) ◽  
pp. 2047-2061
Author(s):  
I.V. Sibiryatkina ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Weighted Average ◽  
Assessment Method ◽  
Practical Significance ◽  
Expert Assessment ◽  
Complex Coefficient ◽  
Advantages And Disadvantages ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Commercial Enterprise ◽  
Business Entities ◽  
Adaptation Model

The article presents the systematization of approaches to assess the enterprises' level of competitiveness. The advantages and disadvantages of the most famous models for assessing the competitiveness of business entities are considered. The identified shortcomings made it possible to form a hypothesis for studying the enterprises' competitiveness, taking into account the industry factor, financial criteria and quality indicators of the enterprise. For the formation of an objective adaptation model for assessing the competitiveness of an enterprise, taking into account its industry specificity, the author's approach to assessing the competitiveness of an enterprise, taking into account industry specifics, based on the relative and qualitative indicators of the enterprise's activities, selected by the expert assessment method, is considered. For trade enterprises, groups of the most significant indicators have been formed that characterize the competitiveness in the areas of observation of the sales of a trade enterprise, its costs, financial position and financial results, for the market share of the trade enterprise, the level of prices for goods, for the level of service of the trade enterprise. The indicators characterizing the level of competitiveness of a trading enterprise are divided into relative critical indicators and a group of qualitative critical indicators, which are included in the calculation of the complex coefficient of enterprise competitiveness model based on the theory of effective competition according to the weighted average arithmetic formula. The article presents the results of approbation of the proposed methodology on the example of the “PAO Magnit” trading enterprise and its trade competitors operating in Voronezh. The obtained results of the author's methodology for assessing the competitiveness of a trading enterprise have practical significance; the proposed model can be adapted according to the criteria for selecting indicators and their quantitative indicator, which contributes to the use of this toolkit in future studies of the competitiveness of trading enterprises.

Comparison of Various Systems for On-Site Wastewater Treatment

1990 ◽  
Vol 22 (3-4) ◽  
pp. 41-48 ◽  
Author(s):  
Frits A. Fastenau ◽  
Jaap H. J. M. van der Graaf ◽  
Gerard Martijnse
Keyword(s):  
Wastewater Treatment ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Research Work ◽  
Field Research ◽  
Limiting Factors ◽  
Land Claims ◽  
Rotating Biological Contactor ◽  
Advantages And Disadvantages ◽  
Different Types ◽  
Selection Of

Diffuse pollution, caused by direct discharges from individual houses, small built-up nuclei, farms, camp-sites, etc., for which connection to central wastewater treatment systems is unfeasible, may be significantly reduced by on-site treatment. Based on a large scale research, including intensive field-research work on 14 systems of different types and sizes in a range equal to population equivalents (p.e) of 5 - 200 persons, 8 different types of system were compared. The comparison involved technological features, such as removal efficiency, reliability, operational and maintenance aspects, environmental impacts and land claims, together with economical features showing significant differences. Advantages and disadvantages of each system are highlighted to enable a selection of suitable systems to be made. When no limiting factors are present, it was found that - in general-infiltration systems (infiltration pits; infiltration trenches) have the best features for on-site treatment up to 100 p.e. For larger capacities, or when infiltration is not possible, the rotating biological contactor will be the best solution mainly because of the lower costs.

scholarly journals Piggyback transportation as a factor in ensuring sustainable development of transport links between regions

2021 ◽  
Vol 296 ◽  
pp. 03008
Author(s):  
Laslo Kukla ◽  
Sergey Maksimov ◽  
Vladislav Shchekoldin ◽  
Valeria Nazarkina
Keyword(s):  
Sustainable Development ◽  
Russian Federation ◽  
Delphi Method ◽  
Expert Assessment ◽  
Analysis Method ◽  
Siberian Region ◽  
The West ◽  
Advantages And Disadvantages ◽  
Hierarchy Analysis ◽  
The Russian Federation

The article discusses piggyback transportation and their role in modern logistics technologies, which make it possible to implement certain elements of the concept of sustainable development of both regional and international economies. The main aspects of the organization of piggyback transportation, their advantages and disadvantages have been studied, the problems of use in the conditions of the Russian Federation have been identified. The lack of experience in their implementation, the insufficient level of interaction between various sectors of the economy were noted as one of the main problems of using piggyback transportation in the formation of logistics chains, as well as the complexity and ambiguity of assessing the effectiveness of their implementation. The paper proposes an approach to assessing the effectiveness of piggyback transportation, based on the use of expert assessment methods, in particular, the Delphi method and the Saati hierarchy analysis method. The features of the implementation of piggyback transportation in the West Siberian region of the Russian Federation are noted.

RISK ASSESSMENT METHODS AND FEATURES OF THEIR USE IN HOUSING CONSTRUCTION FINANCING

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Olena Balanska ◽  
◽  
Vasyl Kozyk ◽  
Anna Panchenko ◽  
Volodymyr Melnyk ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Modeling ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Assessment Method ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Housing Construction ◽  
Advantages And Disadvantages ◽  
Financing Mechanism ◽  
Expert Assessments ◽  
The Individual ◽  
High Level

The article examines modern methods of risk assessment, analyzes their advantages and disadvantages, as well as features of use. In particular, it is determined that most of them are based on the use of statistical data and postulates of probability theory. In the case when obtaining the necessary initial data is difficult, the methods of analogues or expert assessments are used, but they are subjective. In a separate group, we can distinguish methods that are based on the use of mathematical modeling, such as the scenarios method , project sensitivity analysis or game theory. Housing construction is characterized by a high level of risk, and the specifics of the industry complicate its unambiguous assessment and, consequently, its management. Therefore, to effectively manage the risks of financing the housing construction, it is necessary to choose an assessment method that can provide the most accurate result. The amount of risk in housing construction financing directly depends on the chosen financing mechanism, and its total value will consist of the sum of individual risks that arise at different stages of the process, and the amount of which can be estimated using different methods. It is necessary to develop a combined assessment model that not only combines different risks, but also considers them as a single object, the individual parts of which are not only related, but can also cross-influence each other. Such a model will combine economic-statistical, expert methods and methods of mathematical modeling.

scholarly journals EXPERT ASSESSMENT METHOD IN INCREASING COMPETITIVENESS OF MACHINE-BUILDING PRODUCTS

2020 ◽  
pp. 142-148
Author(s):  
R. Romancov ◽  
T. Yurakova
Keyword(s):  
Customer Orientation ◽  
Assessment Method ◽  
Machine Building ◽  
Engineering Industry ◽  
Expert Assessment ◽  
Finish Line ◽  
Material Interest ◽  
Expert Assessments ◽  
The One ◽  
Competitive Products

No one remembers the name of the one who came to the finish line second. In modern realities, increasing the competitiveness of products and improving their quality are synonymous, and the search for ways to achieve these goals has become key. This article discusses the concepts of competition and presents one of the effective ways to achieve competitive products in the engineering industry - the qualimetric method of expert assessments. This method is effective, universal and convenient for solving various problems. The application of the method of expert assessments allows the company to constantly improve the shape of its products, determine the necessary quality indicators, increase the material interest of workers, improve working conditions in the workplace and much more. Thus, the method becomes an effective "tool" that allows to maintain a stable position of the enterprise on the market and provide one of the key principles of QMS, TQM - customer orientation, which includes identifying possible causes of product defects and conducting market research to determine customer needs.

scholarly journals ALGORITHMS AND ORDER OF EXAMINATION CARRYING OUT ON ESTIMATE OF ENVIRONMENT EFFECT UPON REGIONAL SOCIAL-ECONOMIC SYSTEM FOR KNOWLEDGE BASE FORMATION OF CORRESPONDING INFORMATION SYSTEM

2016 ◽  
Vol 2016 (2) ◽  
pp. 175-185 ◽  
Author(s):  
Андрей Аверченков ◽  
Andrey Averchenkov ◽  
Елена Аверченкова ◽  
Elena Averchenkova ◽  
Дмитрий Аксененко ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Information System ◽  
Knowledge Base ◽  
Economic System ◽  
Social Economic ◽  
Assessment Method ◽  
Expert Assessment ◽  
Mathematical Apparatus ◽  
Environment Effect ◽  
Expert Opinions ◽  
Expert Assessments

The examination for the estimate of the environment effect upon a regional social-economic system for the formation of a knowledge base of a corresponding information system is a sequence of separate procedures. Expert assessments are processed in the corresponding information system (CIS). In the paper there is shown an algorithm for a computation of an expert weight at the formation of a knowledge base of a corresponding information system, and also a mathematical apparatus of expert response processing is presented. The author’s experience in the application of the expert assessment method in the estimate of the presence both a connection force between environment, and a regional social-economic system. For the assessment of the effect force as a mathematical apparatus the theory of a fuzzy set was used. The expert response processing has shown that 487 variants of connections under analysis can be divided into groups of a strong, medium and weal effect taking into account their belonging to the groups Sm . The computation of the concordance factor W and checkup for the expert response co-ordination of this stage of the examination have shown a high degree of coordination of expert opinions. The amount of 445 connections obtained as a result of the examination characterizing a strong and medium influence of environment upon a regional social-economic system were loaded into a knowledge base of CIS as the most sig-nificant ones. The CIS processes and analyzes exami-nation results after which it offers the selection of concrete measures of a management type allowing either increasing, or grading their influence depending on the context. Therefore, the developed CIS increases the efficiency of processing and analysis of expert assessments, which on the whole ensures effective decisionmaking by managers and specialists.

scholarly journals Model for assessing the competitiveness of rural areas in the region in the new economic conditions

2020 ◽  
Vol 210 ◽  
pp. 14001
Author(s):  
Svetlana Podgorskaya ◽  
Sergei Schitov
Keyword(s):  
Rural Areas ◽  
Statistical Data ◽  
Assessment Method ◽  
Expert Assessment ◽  
State Management ◽  
Rostov Region ◽  
Target Values ◽  
Expert Assessments ◽  
Weight Coefficients ◽  
Integral Indicator

A model for assessing the competitiveness of rural areas in the region has been developed, which allows analyzing the parameters of the actual socio-economic situation on the basis of statistical data and expert assessments in order to make management decisions aimed at leveling and mitigating the consequences of crisis phenomena. The system of indicative indicators for assessing the main areas of rural life: economic, institutional, innovative, social, labor, and environmental. The integral indicator of the competitiveness of rural areas based on an assessment of the extent to which the characteristic levels of performance target values, the position of the state management and key customers. To calculate the indicator, we used the multivariate average method, which generalizes the levels of characteristics of the studied sample in order to further rank the elements. The weight coefficients for each component of the model were determined by the expert assessment method based on a survey of respondents – rural residents and experts in the field of rural development. The results of testing the model on the materials of rural areas of the Rostov region are presented.

Pedagogical diagnostics of professional identity formation among cadets using expert assessment method

2021 ◽  
pp. 65-72
Author(s):  
Elena I. Meshcheryakova ◽  
Irena S. Panferkina ◽  
Lyudmila I. Paschinskaya
Keyword(s):  
Professional Identity ◽  
Identity Formation ◽  
Assessment Method ◽  
Educational Process ◽  
Practical Significance ◽  
Expert Assessment ◽  
Professional Identity Formation ◽  
Self Assessment ◽  
Advantages And Disadvantages ◽  
Assessment Of Competence

We consider the current issue of pedagogical diagnostics of professional identity formation among cadets with expert assessment method for its implementation. The expert assessment method is one of the system elements of pedagogical diagnostics methods, we present the features, advantages and disadvantages of its use for assessing the professional identity formation among cadets, directions are proposed to increase the effectiveness of the expert assessment method and overcome its shortcomings in the process of diagnosing the formation of professional identity of cadets. The main requirements for experts – subjects of pedagogical diagnostics are to use methods within the framework of objective (documentary, experimental) and subjective (self-assessment of competence, mutual assessment by experts of other potential experts) approaches for the selection of experts. In addition to theoretical, the study has practical significance, which consists in the fact that its results can contribute to the effective use of the method of expert assessments not only to study the dynamics of the formation of professional identity of cadets in the educational process of military universities, but also to identify signs of such a dangerous psychological phenomenon as professional marginalization – the antipode of professional identity.

scholarly journals METHODS FOR THE DETERMINATION OF THE STABILITY OF THE EARTH CONSTRUCTION DEVICE

2017 ◽  
pp. 81-87
Author(s):  
О. L. TIUTKIN ◽  
О. І. DUBINCHIK ◽  
V. R. KILDEEV
Keyword(s):  
Geological Structure ◽  
Calculation Model ◽  
Theoretical Research ◽  
Advantages And Disadvantages ◽  
Earth Construction ◽  
Stability Of Slopes ◽  
Research Findings ◽  
The Stability ◽  
Selection Of

Purpose. Conduct a generalized analysis of methods for assessing the stability of slopes and slopes, which are currently used. An assessment of the stability of slopes and slopes can be carried out only on the basis of a comprehensive study using different methods. Methodology. Theoretical research. Findings. The analysis carried out in the framework of this study to determine the stability characteristics of landslide slopes suggests that the coefficient of stability depends directly on the nature, steepness and geological structure of the slope. Originality. The calculation scheme for determining the coefficient of stability directly depends on the methods chosen. The calculation will be reliable in the event that the corresponding scheme is more accurately and more detailed. Practical value. The use of each of the methods considered provides for the use of a number of special geotechnical surveys and the selection of a calculation model by comparing advantages and disadvantages.

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