RISK ASSESSMENT METHODS AND FEATURES OF THEIR USE IN HOUSING CONSTRUCTION FINANCING

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Olena Balanska ◽  
◽  
Vasyl Kozyk ◽  
Anna Panchenko ◽  
Volodymyr Melnyk ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Modeling ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Assessment Method ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Housing Construction ◽  
Advantages And Disadvantages ◽  
Financing Mechanism ◽  
Expert Assessments ◽  
The Individual ◽  
High Level

The article examines modern methods of risk assessment, analyzes their advantages and disadvantages, as well as features of use. In particular, it is determined that most of them are based on the use of statistical data and postulates of probability theory. In the case when obtaining the necessary initial data is difficult, the methods of analogues or expert assessments are used, but they are subjective. In a separate group, we can distinguish methods that are based on the use of mathematical modeling, such as the scenarios method , project sensitivity analysis or game theory. Housing construction is characterized by a high level of risk, and the specifics of the industry complicate its unambiguous assessment and, consequently, its management. Therefore, to effectively manage the risks of financing the housing construction, it is necessary to choose an assessment method that can provide the most accurate result. The amount of risk in housing construction financing directly depends on the chosen financing mechanism, and its total value will consist of the sum of individual risks that arise at different stages of the process, and the amount of which can be estimated using different methods. It is necessary to develop a combined assessment model that not only combines different risks, but also considers them as a single object, the individual parts of which are not only related, but can also cross-influence each other. Such a model will combine economic-statistical, expert methods and methods of mathematical modeling.

scholarly journals Financial and Labor Benefits of the Individual TB Risk Assessment Model for Annual TB Screening

2020 ◽  
Vol 41 (S1) ◽  
pp. s234-s234
Author(s):  
Kristin Sims ◽  
Roger Stienecker
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Health Care ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Health Care Personnel ◽  
Individual Risk ◽  
Tuberculosis Screening ◽  
Hospital System ◽  
National Tuberculosis ◽  
The Individual ◽  
The Cost

Background: Since 1991, US tuberculosis (TB) rates have declined, including among health care personnel (HCP). Non–US born persons accounted for approximately two-thirds of cases. Serial TB testing has limitations in populations at low risk; it is expensive and labor intensive. Method: We moved a large hospital system from facility-level risk stratification to an individual risk model to guide TB screening based on Tuberculosis Screening, Testing, and Treatment of US Health Care Personnel: Recommendations from the National Tuberculosis Controllers Association and CDC, 2019. This process included individual TB risk assessment, symptom evaluation, TB testing for M. tuberculosis infection (by either IGRA or TST) for HCP without documented evidence of prior LTBI or TB disease, with an additional workup for TB disease for HCP with positive test results or symptoms compatible with TB disease. In addition, employees with specific job codes deemed high risk were required to undergo TB screening. Result: In 2018, this hospital system of ~10,000 employees screened 7,556 HCP for TB at a cost of $348,625. In 2019, the cost of the T Spot test increased from $45 to $100 and the cost of screening 5,754 HCP through October 31, 2019, was $543,057. In 2020, it is anticipated that 755 HCP will be screened, saving the hospital an estimated minimum of $467,557. The labor burden associated with employee health personnel will fall from ~629.66 hours to 62.91 hours. The labor burden associated with pulling HCPs from the bedside to be screened will be reduced from 629.66 hours to 62.91 hours as well. Conclusion: Adoption of the individual risk assessment model for TB screening based on Tuberculosis Screening, Testing, and Treatment of US Health Care Personnel: Recommendations from the National Tuberculosis Controllers Association and CDC, 2019 will greatly reduce financial and labor burdens in healthcare settings when implemented.Funding: NoneDisclosures: None

BUSINESS RISK ASSESSMENT METHODS

2021 ◽  
Vol 3 (4) ◽  
pp. 4-12
Author(s):  
S. A. FILIN ◽  
◽  
N. A. FADEEVA ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Assessment Method ◽  
Assessment Methods ◽  
Specific Situation ◽  
Business Risk ◽  
Advantages And Disadvantages ◽  
Risk Assessment Method ◽  
Modern Business ◽  
The Subject

In this article, the subject of research is the methods of risk assessment in business as the main way to minimize risks when choosing a particular scenario for the development of events, as well as the difficulty in choosing a method for further analysis. The purpose of this article is to identify the most appropriate risk assessment method for a given situation and, accordingly, compare them and analyze the advantages and disadvantages of the methods under consideration. The article provides examples for specific situations of the most commonly used risk assessment methods in modern business. Recommendations for the most effective application of the analyzed methods are offered, depending on the goal of risk analysis and a specific situation. The results and conclusions are presented, corresponding to the set goal.

Research on Risk Assessment Method and System Development of Small Ammonia Refrigeration Units

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiang Li ◽  
Weihua Wang ◽  
Weike Jing ◽  
Jin Shi ◽  
Fakun Zhuang
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Evaluation Method ◽  
System Development ◽  
Correction Method ◽  
Assessment Method ◽  
Scientific Basis ◽  
Assessment System ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Mitigation Measures ◽  
Risk Assessment Method

Abstract In recent years, ammonia leakage accidents occur frequently, which causes a great concern in China. Based on traditional risk analysis methods and the equipment characteristics, a risk evaluation method for small ammonia refrigeration units is proposed. The method includes a risk assessment model based on area division, a failure probability assessment method based on expert scoring system, a failure consequence assessment method based on regional population density and consequence mitigation measures, and a HAZOP risk correction method. Based on the proposed method, a risk assessment system of small ammonia refrigeration units is developed. This risk assessment method and system will provide a scientific basis to carry out the cold storage management in China.

scholarly journals A Dynamic Risk Assessment Method for Deep-Buried Tunnels Based on a Bayesian Network

Geofluids ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 2020 ◽  
pp. 1-14 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yan Wang ◽  
Jie Su ◽  
Sulei Zhang ◽  
Siyao Guo ◽  
Peng Zhang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Bayesian Network ◽  
Influencing Factors ◽  
Assessment Method ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Risk Level ◽  
Dynamic Risk ◽  
Risk Rating ◽  
Risk Assessment Method ◽  
Dynamic Risk Assessment

In view of the shortcomings in the risk assessment of deep-buried tunnels, a dynamic risk assessment method based on a Bayesian network is proposed. According to case statistics, a total of 12 specific risk rating factors are obtained and divided into three types: objective factors, subjective factors, and monitoring factors. The grading criteria of the risk rating factors are determined, and a dynamic risk rating system is established. A Bayesian network based on this system is constructed by expert knowledge and historical data. The nodes in the Bayesian network are in one-to-one correspondence with the three types of influencing factors, and the probability distribution is determined. Posterior probabilistic and sensitivity analyses are carried out, and the results show that the main influencing factors obtained by the two methods are basically the same. The constructed dynamic risk assessment model is most affected by the objective factor rating and monitoring factor rating, followed by the subjective factor rating. The dynamic risk rating is mainly affected by the surrounding rock level among the objective factors, construction management among the subjective factors, and arch crown convergence and side wall displacement among the monitoring factors. The dynamic risk assessment method based on the Bayesian network is applied to the No. 3 inclined shaft of the Humaling tunnel. According to the adjustment of the monitoring data and geological conditions, the dynamic risk rating probability of level I greatly decreased from 81.7% to 33.8%, the probability of level II significantly increased from 12.3% to 34.0%, and the probability of level III increased from 5.95% to 32.2%, which indicates that the risk level has risen sharply. The results show that this method can effectively predict the risk level during tunnel construction.

scholarly journals Individual Pension capital: Prospects of implementing

2020 ◽  
Vol 25 (2) ◽  
pp. 170-191
Author(s):  
M.A. Bundin
Keyword(s):  
Pension System ◽  
Pension Reform ◽  
Current System ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
Research Information ◽  
Advantages And Disadvantages ◽  
Refusal To Participate ◽  
The Individual ◽  
High Level ◽  
State Pension

Subject. The paper examines the Russian pension system. Individual pension capital is an alternative direction to the current system of non-State pension funding. Objectives. The author is to consider the embedding of the individual pension capital concept. He also aims at analyzing the advantages and disadvantages of the concept. Methods. The study uses the correlation-regression analysis and the analysis of the research information base on the surveyed topic. Results The article allows acknowledging the dependence between the expansion of the incapacitated group of citizens and the consumer price index growth. Besides, it allows to determine the main risks of the proposed concept. Conclusions and Relevance. The main internal risks of the proposed pension reform include: a massive refusal to participate in the new system; the decreasing of participants' contributions tariffs to funds up to 0.1 percent; high-level costs (for funds).

scholarly journals Risk Assessment Method of Heavy Metal Pollution in Agricultural Soil

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Heavy Metal ◽  
Metal Pollution ◽  
Heavy Metal Pollution ◽  
Agricultural Soil ◽  
Pollution Assessment ◽  
Assessment Method ◽  
Pollution Risk ◽  
Advantages And Disadvantages ◽  
Risk Assessment Method

Heavy metal pollution of agricultural soil has regional and long-term characteristics. Scientific and reasonable pollution assessment is the premise of environmental pollution risk control and subsequent remediation strategy. This paper lists the advantages and disadvantages of common pollution risk assessment methods, and puts forward the recommended methods and suggestions.

scholarly journals DESIGN AND CONSTRUCTION OF LOW-STOREY HOUSING IN THE LATE 1950s IN LVIV

2020 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 76-82
Author(s):  
Didyk V. ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Housing Construction ◽  
Spatial Transformation ◽  
Residential Areas ◽  
Apartment House ◽  
Housing Design ◽  
Urban Art ◽  
Architectural Planning ◽  
The Individual ◽  
High Level ◽  
Design And Construction

In 1957-1960, the mass construction of one-story attics and two-story buildings began to solve the problem of providing housing for workers of newly established enterprises. Lviv architects on a competitive basis designed a number of projects, on the basis of which the State Construction Committee of the UkrSSR proposed to the Lviv branch of Dipromist on their basis to develop a unified series of projects of typical one-and two-storey buildings. 136 hectares of land were allocated for housing construction, on which, according to the city master plan, low-rise buildings are planned. It was planned to build houses and separate groups on undeveloped sites in the old residential areas where there were already utilities. New housing construction with a high level of engineering equipment contributes to the improvement of working areas. In residential areas, the construction of schools, children's institutions, cinemas, clinics, shops, consumer services is planned. - Levandivka is transformed into a landscaped village. The quarters are planned according to the manor type. The area of ​​the plot is 0.06 - 0.08 hectares per one-apartment house, ie - 0.03 - 0.04 ha per apartment. It should be noted that the architects of Lviv in their functional-spatial and architectural-planning solutions used the experience of low-rise construction of the period of functionalism of Lviv in the 1930s. Today, many enterprises, near which low-rise buildings were built, have ceased to exist, and multi-storey residential and public buildings are being built on their territory. Part of the low-rise buildings of that period have also been lost, and part is in the process of transformation. Didyk V. and Morklyanyk O. (2003-2018) studies the socio-political preconditions of housing design and construction, localization of construction in the spatial structure of Lviv, analysis of architectural-planning and stylistic solutions of housing and its architectural-spatial transformation. The article analyzes the individual and typical projects of low-rise buildings and notes that despite the simple facades, the houses are architecturally quite expressive. Part of the low-rise buildings of that period has been lost, part is in the stage of transformation and a small part is still preserved almost unchanged. Therefore, those fragments of low-rise buildings and individual houses that still retain architectural expressiveness and functional aesthetics should be preserved as monuments of urban art, architecture and culture.

scholarly journals Expert assessment method in foresight studies

2019 ◽  
Vol 16 (4) ◽  
pp. 4-13
Author(s):  
O. I. Karasev ◽  
E. I. Mukanina
Keyword(s):  
Delphi Method ◽  
Research Work ◽  
Assessment Method ◽  
Theoretical Research ◽  
Expert Assessment ◽  
Advantages And Disadvantages ◽  
Expert Model ◽  
Expert Assessments ◽  
Necessary And Sufficient ◽  
Selection Of

Purpose of the study. The main goal of this research is to identify key aspects of expert assessments and offer high-quality recommendations for their improvement.Materials and methods. Foresight is built on the basis of expert assessment method, includes: active formation of the image of the future instead of its probabilistic prediction, focus on identifying key development priorities, participation in the study of key stakeholders, the relationship with the management decision-making process. The methods of analysis used in the work suggest methods of theoretical research in the form of analysis and modeling. In the course of the research, the following tasks were solved: firstly, the Expert model was formed based on the necessary and sufficient criteria for selecting respondents to the foresight study; secondly, the main characteristics of the Delphi method for consensus decisions in expert groups were identified. The research work considers various sources of information, which became the basis for the further development of the Expert model, based on an integrated approach based on the statistical, sociological and economic fields of science.Results. On the basis of bibliometric analysis, important criteria for the selection of experts were highlighted: a practical component, a theoretical component, a creative component, an assessment of belonging to a field of study, an assessment of work in a study, an adjustment of results. The relevance of the selection of an expert greatly influences the result of the foresight, therefore, there is a need for a balanced selection of respondents to the study. Foresight studies have a distinctive feature from other areas in that the result is the achievement of consensus between experts in the subject area. Decision makers are drawn from three areas of activity business, government, science. In this regard, criteria for the selection of respondents were formed, which imply the necessary and sufficient conditions. The necessary criteria are understood as such parameters, without which the characteristics of the expert do not allow the respondent to be an expert for this study. A sufficient condition for the participation of the decision maker in the foresight analysis implies such selection criteria, which are complementary characteristics of the expert, which do not need to prove that the expert is a suitable expert for a specific study. As a result, four necessary criteria for the selection of experts for groups were identified, as well as individual sufficient criteria for each group. The process of carrying out the Delphi method is considered, the advantages and disadvantages are determined, on the basis of which the resulting indicator is proposed the foresight research reliability index.Conclusion. The method of selection of experts allows a comprehensive approach to the problem in the field of formation of expert groups based on the introduction of digital technologies that improves the qualitative characteristics of foresight research. The confidence index, as a result indicator, determines the objectivity of the study based on expert assessments.

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