Adapting Gravity Model for Predicting the Risk of COVID -19 in Nigeria

Coronaviruses ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 01 ◽  
Author(s):  
Olanrewaju Samson Olaitan ◽  
Olowoporoku Oluwaseun
Keyword(s):  
High Risk ◽  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Gravity Model ◽  
Infection Risk ◽  
Risk Level ◽  
Ogun State ◽  
Factors Influencing ◽  
Government Data ◽  
Housing Standards ◽  
Very High

Background: It is against the background of the emerging incidence of coronavirus pandemic in Nigeria, and the need for its management that this study adapts gravity model for predicting the risk of the disease across states of the country. Methods: The paper relied on published government data on population, and gross domestic product, while the distance of town to the nearest international airport was also obtained. These data were log transformed and further used in the calculation of gravity scores for each state of the federation. Results: The study discovered that with the gravity score ranging from 2.942 to 4.437, all the states of the federation have the risk of being infected with the pandemic. Meanwhile Ogun State (4.837) has a very high risk of being infected with the disease. Other states with high risks are Oyo (4.312), Jigawa (4.235), Niger (4.148) and Katsina (4.083). However, Taraba State has the least infection risk of the pandemic in Nigeria. Factors influencing the risk level of the pandemic are proximity, porous boundary between states, and elitism. Conclusion: The paper advocates border settlement planning, review of housing standards, and advocacy for sanitation in different states. It therefore concludes that adequate urban planning in unison with economic and epidemiology techniques will provide a strong strategy for the management of the disease.

scholarly journals SPECIFICS OF ANTIHYPERTENSION THERAPY IN HYPERTENSIVES OF VARIOUS CARDIOVASCULAR RISK (BY THE REGISTRY OF CHRONIC NON-COMMUNICABLE DISEASES IN TYUMENSKAYA OBLAST)

2018 ◽  
Vol 17 (3) ◽  
pp. 4-10
Author(s):  
A. Yu. Efanov ◽  
Yu. A. Vyalkina ◽  
Yu. A. Petrova ◽  
Z. M. Safiullina ◽  
O. V. Abaturova ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Cardiovascular Risk ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Risk Group ◽  
High Risk Group ◽  
Risk Level ◽  
Moderate Risk ◽  
High Risk Patients ◽  
Risk Patients ◽  
Very High

Aim. To assess the specifics of antihypertension therapy (AHT) in hypertensives of various cardiovascular risk, in the registry of chronic non-communicable diseases in Tyumenskaya oblast.Material and methods. A random sample studied, of 1704 patients with hypertension, inhabitants of Tyumenskaya oblast (region), ascribed to dispensary follow-up. Mean age 62±7,5 y.o. Of those 31,5% (n=537) males. The prevalence and efficacy of AHT assessed according to cardiovascular risk level. The significance was evaluated with the criteria χ2.Results. AHT was characterized by the growth of the frequency of treatment approaches with cardiovascular risk consideration. Regular treatment took 33,9% patients of low and moderate risk vs 41,3% of high and very high (p<0,01). In the male group such tendency also took place. Gender specifics of AHT was characterized by that in the groups of high and very high risk females took medications significantly more commonly than males — 46,6% vs 29,1% in high risk group (p<0,01) and 47,5% vs 30% in very high risk group (p<0,01). With the increase of the risk level, there was decline of treatment efficacy — from 95% in low risk group to 32,5% in very high risk group; 53,1% of the participants were taking monotherapy, 32,9% — two drugs, 14,0% — ≥3 drugs. With the increase of risk grade there is tendency to increase of combinational AHT, however with no significant increase of efficacy. Treatment efficacy in high and very high risk patients comparing to patients with low and moderate risk was significantly lower — 33,1% vs 69,7% (p<0,01), respectively. Statins intake among the high and very high risk patients was 10,6-11,0% males and 7,8% females (p<0,05).Conclusion. AHT in hypertensives in Tymenskaya oblast, under dispensary follow-up, is characterized by insufficient usage of combinational drugs. With the raise of cardiovascular risk there is tendency to higher rate of combinational AHT. However there is no significant increase in efficacy of treatment with the increase of medications number. A very low rate of statins intake is noted. The obtained specifics witness for the necessity to optimize AHT among the high and very high risk patients — inhabitants of Tyumenskya oblast.

scholarly journals ERGONOMIC RISK ASSESSMENT ON SELECTED HOT-WORK WORKERS AT COMPANY XXX

2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (Special1) ◽  
pp. 176-185
Author(s):  
Sivabalan Sanmugum ◽  
Karmegam Karuppiah ◽  
Sivasankar
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Extreme Temperature ◽  
Effective Control ◽  
Risk Level ◽  
Entire Body ◽  
Very High ◽  
Ergonomic Risk Assessment ◽  
Ergonomic Risk

Company XXX is a factory that involving manufacturing of offshore containers in where the hot works are one of the crucial activities in fabrication and structuring the framework of the containers. This study had been conducted at hot work section to conduct initial and advanced ergonomic risk assessment to identify ergonomic risk factors involved among hot-work workers which cause the significant number of reports on ergonomic related health issues at hot works area from the year 2011 to year 2017. The initial and advanced ergonomic risk assessment had been conducted based on DOSH latest release of guideline on ergonomic risk assessment 2017 and all findings had been tabulated and analysed. Based on the intial ergonomic assessment, total score achived is 17.7 with main risk factors identified through the hot work acticties are including awkward postures, repetitive motions, static and sustained work postures, vibration, insufficient ventilation, exposure of noise and working in extreme temperature. Based on Advanced ERA conducted on selected 3 workers, the study shows Muscle Fatigue Assessment (MFA) with average score for risk level shown ‘High’ and ‘Very High’ categories, Rapid Entire Body Assessment (REBA) with average total score more than 10 which categorized as ‘High Risk’ and Quick Exposure Check (QEC) which shown the workers have very high risk for back and shoulder or arm parts with score level are between 29 to 40 for back static and  41 to 56 for shoulder and arm parts. Based on results of the assessment, company XXX recommended had been to conduct further investigation for improvements to determine effective control measure for the work process in order to reduce that risk level towards the hot work workers.

scholarly journals Flood Risk Assessment of Metro System Using Improved Trapezoidal Fuzzy AHP: A Case Study of Guangzhou

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (24) ◽  
pp. 5154
Author(s):  
Guangpeng Wang ◽  
Lianyou Liu ◽  
Peijun Shi ◽  
Guoming Zhang ◽  
Jifu Liu
Keyword(s):  
High Risk ◽  
Flood Risk ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Fuzzy Ahp ◽  
Scientific Data ◽  
Risk Level ◽  
Analytic Hierarchy ◽  
Risk Levels ◽  
Metro Systems ◽  
Very High

Metro systems have become high-risk entities due to the increased frequency and severity of urban flooding. Therefore, understanding the flood risk of metro systems is a prerequisite for mega-cities’ flood protection and risk management. This study proposes a method for accurately assessing the flood risk of metro systems based on an improved trapezoidal fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (AHP). We applied this method to assess the flood risk of 14 lines and 268 stations of the Guangzhou Metro. The risk results validation showed that the accuracy of the improved trapezoidal fuzzy AHP (90% match) outperformed the traditional trapezoidal AHP (70% match). The distribution of different flood risk levels in Guangzhou metro lines exhibited a polarization signature. About 69% (155 km2) of very high and high risk zones were concentrated in central urban areas (Yuexiu, Liwan, Tianhe, and Haizhu); the three metro lines with the highest overall risk level were lines 3, 6, and 5; and the metro stations at very high risk were mainly located on metro lines 6, 3, 5, 1, and 2. Based on fieldwork, we suggest raising exits, installing watertight doors, and using early warning strategies to resist metro floods. This study can provide scientific data for decision-makers to reasonably allocate flood prevention resources, which is significant in reducing flood losses and promoting Guangzhou’s sustainable development.

scholarly journals Risk level mapping of organophosphate pesticides application in agricultural area of Cangkringan Subdistrict, Yogyakarta, Indonesia

2021 ◽  
Vol 933 (1) ◽  
pp. 012046
Author(s):  
S Rahmawati ◽  
D Wacano ◽  
M Erpinda ◽  
A Juliani
Keyword(s):  
High Risk ◽  
Crop Production ◽  
Loading Rate ◽  
Risk Scores ◽  
Risk Level ◽  
Organophosphate Pesticides ◽  
Wet Season ◽  
Four Levels ◽  
Crop Area ◽  
Very High

Abstract Farmers in Indonesia widely use organophosphate pesticides (OPPs) to increase crop production, despite their risk to human health and the environment. Objective of this study is to estimate the loading rate and risk level of OPPs based on OPPs characteristics, farmers’ knowledge, and the behavior of OPPs application in agriculture area in Yogyakarta Special Region in Indonesia. Data collected through interview and questionnaire distribution revealed three types of OPPs used in study area; profenofos, chlorpyrifos and diazinon. Data on application dose and crop area were used to estimate loading rate. Risk scores can be calculated by multiplying loading rate with toxicity data of each type of OPPs used. Box-Cox transformation was then used to normalized rightly skewed risk score data to get 4 (four) levels of risk classification range; low, medium, high and very high. It was found that there were areas classified as very high risk in wet season, while it is not the case in dry season. However, in total loading per year, areas with high and very high risk level were found for more than >50% in study area.

scholarly journals Factors Related to the Complaints of Musculoskeletal Disorders of Shelving Staff

2019 ◽  
Vol 8 (3) ◽  
pp. 346
Author(s):  
Yovian Treesyanova
Keyword(s):  
High Risk ◽  
Musculoskeletal Disorders ◽  
Individual Characteristics ◽  
Occupational Accidents ◽  
Observational Research ◽  
Risk Level ◽  
Entire Body ◽  
Working Postures ◽  
Years Of Service ◽  
Very High

Introduction: Every worker is exposed to the risk of occupational accidents or occupational diseases when working. Awkward working postures are the postures that cause body parts to detach from its natural postures that can result in the complaints of musculoskeletal disorders (MSDs). This research intends to analyze the factors related to the complaints of MSDs suffered by the shelving staff in the library and reading room in Universitas Airlangga Surabaya. Methods: This research is observational research that applies a cross-sectional design. The sample of this research consists of 27 people chosen by the total population method. The data regarding the individual characteristics and the complaints of MSDs are obtained through interview and filling out a questionnaire that has been standardized. The data on working postures are analyzed by referring to the Rapid Entire Body Assessment (REBA) method, while the data on the complaints of MSDs are scrutinized by implementing the Nordic Body Map (NBM) method. Results: Reveal that most of the shelving staff experience very high-risk level of MSDs (40.7%). Other than that, it is noticed that the working postures consist of squatting (high-risk level), bowing (high-risk level), standing (moderate-risk level), standing with arms stretching (very high-risk level), and standing with arms stretching while tiptoeing (very high-risk level). The collected data is analyzed by using the Spearman correlation test. Conclusion: It can be stated that the strongest factor causing the occurrence of MSDs is the years of service (r=0.803) with a positive relationship, which means that the longer the years of service is, the higher the risk to experience MSDs is. Keywords: complaints of musculoskeletal disorders, individual factors, shelving staff

scholarly journals Repetitive Movements in Melon Cultivation Workers under Greenhouses

Agriculture ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (11) ◽  
pp. 236 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gómez-Galán ◽  
Callejón-Ferre ◽  
Pérez-Alonso ◽  
Díaz-Pérez ◽  
Golasi
Keyword(s):  
High Risk ◽  
Musculoskeletal Disorders ◽  
Working Conditions ◽  
Upper Limb ◽  
Lower Limbs ◽  
Risk Level ◽  
Upper Limbs ◽  
Repetitive Movements ◽  
Ergonomic Analysis ◽  
Very High

Musculoskeletal disorders cause serious problems that affect workers in many sectors. The objective of this study is the ergonomic analysis of melon cultivation farmers in Almeria-type greenhouses. For this, the rapid upper limb assessment (RULA) method has been applied after carrying out a detailed process of observing the farmers’ tasks. The study shows that 65% of the postures have a very-high-risk level, 26% high, 9% average, and no posture is found with a low risk. They also show that in 69.57% of the postures, the upper limbs are less affected than the others such as the neck, trunk, and lower limbs. Measures are proposed to improve the working conditions for workers.

scholarly journals Quantitative Assessment of Landslide Risk Based on Susceptibility Mapping Using Random Forest and GeoDetector

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (13) ◽  
pp. 2625
Author(s):  
Yue Wang ◽  
Haijia Wen ◽  
Deliang Sun ◽  
Yuechen Li
Keyword(s):  
Spatial Distribution ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Random Forest ◽  
Landslide Susceptibility ◽  
Susceptibility Mapping ◽  
Risk Level ◽  
Landslide Risk ◽  
Risk Map ◽  
Conditioning Factors ◽  
Very High

This study aims to evaluate risk and discover the distribution law for landslides, so as to enrich landslide prevention theory and method. It first selected Fengjie County in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area as the study area. The work involved developing a landslide risk map using hazard and vulnerability maps utilizing landslide dataset from 2001 to 2016. The landslide dataset was built from historical records, satellite images and extensive field surveys. Firstly, under four primary conditioning factors (i.e., topographic factors, geological factors, meteorological and hydrological factors and vegetation factors), 19 dominant factors were selected from 25 secondary conditioning factors based on the GeoDetector to form an evaluation factor library for the LSM. Subsequently, the random forest model (RF) was used to analyze landslide susceptibility. Then, the landslide hazard map was generated based on the landslide susceptibility mapping (LSM) for the study region. Thereafter, landslide vulnerability assessment was conducted using key elements (economic, material, community) and the weights were provided based on expert judgment. Finally, when risk equals vulnerability multiplied by hazard, the region was categorized as very low, low, medium, high and very high risk level. The results showed that most landslides distribute on both sides of the reservoir bank and the primary and secondary tributaries in the study area, which showed a spatial distribution pattern of more north than south. Elevation, lithology and groundwater type are the main factors affecting landslides. Fengjie County landslide risk level is mostly low (accounting for 73.71% of the study area), but a small part is high and very high risk level (accounting for 2.5%). The overall risk level shows the spatial distribution characteristics of high risk in the central and eastern urban areas and low risk in the southern and northern high-altitude areas. Secondly, it is necessary to strictly control the key risk areas, and carry out prevention and control zoning management according to local conditions. The study is conducted for a specific region but can be extended to other areas around the investigated area. The developed landslide risk map can be considered by relevant government officials for the smooth implementation of management at the regional scale.

scholarly journals Correction of hypertriglyceridemia in order to reduce the residual risk in atherosclerosis-related diseases. Expert Council Opinion

2019 ◽  
pp. 44-51 ◽  
Author(s):  
G. P. Arutyunov ◽  
S. A. Boytsov ◽  
M. I. Voevoda ◽  
O. M. Drapkina ◽  
V. V. Kukharchuk ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Cardiovascular Disease ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Residual Risk ◽  
Risk Level ◽  
Common Condition ◽  
Target Level ◽  
Omega 3 ◽  
Risk Patients ◽  
Very High ◽  
Progression Of Atherosclerosis

In opinion the Expert council provides management tactics for patients with hypertriglyceridemia (HTG). It is demonstrated that HTG is a common condition in overweight patients and is an important component of residual risk. HTG creates additional conditions for the progression of atherosclerosis, so the level of triglycerides (TG) is recommended to be measured in patients with a high, very high and extremely high risk level. An indication for the appointment of drugs that reduce the concentration of TG is its level of more than 2,3 mmol/L. Statins are the agents of choice to reduce the risk of cardiovascular disease in high-risk patients with hypercholesterolemia and HTG. Fenofibrate is used to correct HTG, and in case of intolerance to it or when the target level of TG is not reached, omega-3 ethers of polyunsaturated fatty acids in a dose of 2-4 g/day are recommended. In patients with HTG with a TG level >5,6 mmol/L, fenofibrate is the agent of choice.

scholarly journals The Dominant Factors Influencing the Flow of Foreign Direct Investment to Indonesia

2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 36-42
Author(s):  
Makmun Syadullah ◽  
Akhmad Yasin
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Direct Investment ◽  
The Netherlands ◽  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Gravity Model ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Model Specification ◽  
Tax Rate ◽  
Real Gdp ◽  
Factors Influencing ◽  
The Impact

This paper aims to examine the impact the gross domestic product of the exporting country and the importing country, total tax rate to a commercial profit of exporting country, and importing. As for as, the object of research is the flow of FDI from four countries, namely the Netherlands, Malaysia, Singapore, and Japan to Indonesia. While the methodology used a gravity model specification to model bilateral FDI outflows. Our study finds most real GDP for both the exporting and importing country have consistently positive signs as expected, although generally, only the coefficient of the GDP of the importing country is significant. The coefficient percentage of the total tax rate to commercial profit, both in the exporting country and importing country, also in line with the theory, although both are insignificant.

scholarly journals Cara Persalinan Dan Terjadinya Komplikasi Persalinan Berdasarkan Tingkat Risiko Kehamilan Menurut Skor Poedji Rochjati Di Praktik Mandiri Bidan F Banjarmasin

2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 783-794
Author(s):  
Nur Lathifah ◽  
Fitri Yuliana
Keyword(s):  
High Risk ◽  
Pregnant Women ◽  
Risk Group ◽  
High Risk Group ◽  
Risk Level ◽  
Pregnancy Risk ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Normal Delivery ◽  
Labor Complications ◽  
Very High

Latar Belakang: Salah satu cara untuk menurunkan angka kesakitan dan kematian ibu dengan pendekatan risiko pada ibu hamil. Deteksi risiko dapat dilakukan oleh bidan dengan skor Poedji Roechayati. Di praktik Mandiri Bidan (PMB) F hal ini telah dilaksanakan. Berdasarkan data terakhir pada bulan Mei  2019, dari 48 orang ibu hamil yang berkunjung ke PMB F didapatkan 18 orang (37,5%) kelompok risiko tinggi (KRT) dan 3 orang (6,25%) kelompok risiko sangat tinggi (KRST), di  tahun 2018, terdapat 21% kasus komplikasi persalinan.Tujuan: Menganalisa hubungan antara tingkat risiko ibu hamil dengan kejadian komplikasi persalinan dan juga cara persalinannya.Metode: . Metode penelitian kuantitatif dengan rancangan penelitian Cross Sectional. Populasi penelitian ini adalah semua ibu bersalin di PMB F pada tahun 2017 s.d juni 2019 sebanyak 90 orang dengan tehnik sampling jenuh. Data dianalisis menggunakan uji Chi Squere.Hasil: Dari 90 orang sampel yang diteliti 60 orang (66,7%) yang termasuk kelompok ibu hamil risiko tinggi (KRT). Ibu dengan cara persalinan normal sebanyak 73 orang (81,1%). Ibu yang mengalami komplikasi pada saat persalinan sebanyak 32 orang (35,6%) dari 90 sampel dan komplikasi ini banyak terjadi pada kelompok risiko tinggi (23 orang) dan kelompok risiko sangat tinggi (7 orang).  Simpulan: Ada hubungan yang signifikan antara Komplikasi persalinan dengan tingkat risiko ibu hamil dan tidak ada hubungan cara persalinan dengan tingkat risiko ibu hamil. Kata Kunci: Cara Persalinan, Komplikasi Persalinan, Tingkat Risiko Kehamilan Background: One way to reduce maternal morbidity and mortality with a risk approach for pregnant women. Risk detection can be done by midwives with Poedji Roechayati scores. In practice the Mandiri Midwife (PMB) F this has been carried out. Based on the latest data in May 2019, out of 48 pregnant women visiting PMB F, there were 18 people (37.5%) high risk group (KRT) and 3 people (6.25%) very high risk group (KRST), in 2018, there were 21% of cases of childbirth complications.Objective: To analyze the relationship between the risk level of pregnant women with the incidence of labor complications and also the mode of delivery.Method: . Quantitative research methods with cross sectional research design. The population of this study were all women giving birth at PMB F in 2017 to June 2019, as many as 90 people with saturated sampling techniques. Data were analyzed using the Chi Squere test.Results: Of the 90 samples studied, 60 (66.7%) were included in the high risk group of pregnant women (KRT). Mothers by normal delivery were 73 people (81.1%). Mothers who experienced complications at the time of delivery were 32 people (35.6%) from 90 samples and this complication mostly occurred in the high risk group (23 people) and the very high risk group (7 people).Conclusion: There is a significant relationship between the complications of childbirth with the level of risk of pregnant women and there is no relationship between the way of delivery and the risk of pregnant women. Keywords: Delivery Method, Labor Complications, Pregnancy Risk Level

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