About the characteristics of «internal» and «external» epidemiological risks in the territory Rostov region

Objective: to identify some «internal» and «external» risks that are signifi cant for the Rostov region and calculate their quantitative characteristics.Materials and methods: materials for «internal» risks in the administrative territories of the Rostov region served materials FBUZ «Center of hygiene and epidemiology in the Rostov region» on the incidence of Crimean hemorrhagic fever (KGL) and West Nile (LSN) during the period 2004 – 2017 as a whole across the Rostov region and the slit regions, the data of the regional law «About administrative-territorial structure of Rostov region», the Results of the national census. To determine the «internal» risks, we used the guidelines developed by us «Methodology for assessing the territory of the subject of the Russian Federation on the integral indicator of population morbidity with arbovirus infections», approved by Th e decision of the Academic Council of the Rostov-on-Don anti-plague Institute of Rospotrebnadzor and approved by the Director.Results: based on the results of the ranking of the territory of the Rostov region on the incidence of KGL and LDL, the degree of epidemiological risk was assessed and «risk territories» were identifi ed for these nosologies, which can serve as a basis for risk management — making scientifi cally based management decisions. To calculate the magnitude of the «external» risk and further spread of the disease, you can use various methods to assess the probability of adverse development of the epidemiological situation under the infl uence of various risk factors. Epidemiological risk can also be characterized by multiplying the individual risk by the population exposed to risk factors.Conclusions: identifi cation and calculation of risk levels depending on risk factors will help determine the scope of management decisions, and the specifi cation of risk factors will allow you to develop specifi c measures to reduce risk.

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A Critical Analysis of Risk Factors for Selected Tropical Diseases

10.21203/rs.3.rs-368794/v1 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Faith-Michael Uzoka ◽

Christie Akwaowo ◽

Chinyere Nwafor Okoli ◽

Victory Ekpin ◽

Chukwudi Nwokoro ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Risk Factors ◽

Typhoid Fever ◽

Demographic Data ◽

Significant Risk ◽

Personal Hygiene ◽

Individual Risk ◽

Tropical Diseases ◽

Economic Implications ◽

Frequency Distributions ◽

The Individual

Abstract Aim: The aim of this study was to examine the impacts of different (non-clinical) risk factors on the populations’ predisposition to tropical diseases specifically Malaria, yellow fever, typhoid fever, chicken pox, measles, hepatitis B and UTI.Subject and Methods: Data for this study was obtained through patient diagnosis forms, distributed to physicians in Nigeria. A total of 2199 patient consultation forms were returned by 102 (out of 125) physicians, and considered useful for analysis. Demographic data of patients, physicians, and diagnosis outcomes were analysed descriptively through frequency distributions, aggregate analysis, and graphs, while the influence of risk factors on the disease manifestations (diagnosis outcomes) were determined using regression analysis.Results: Findings from our study demonstrated that the difficulty in diagnosing tropical disease was associated with significant increase in morbidity and mortality especially in patients with malaria, UTI and typhoid fever. Factors such as contact with an infected person and poor personal hygiene posed significant risk, while urbanization and homelessness, posed very low risks across all the diseases. Conclusion: The risk factors identified in our study exert differential and discriminating influences in the causation, predisposition, and transmission of these conditions, understanding the individual risk factors for each condition have significant socio-economic implications for people living in tropical and endemic regions, especially with respect to management and prevention of these conditions.

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Risk in the scope of research and innovative technological projects

Acta Innovations ◽

10.32933/actainnovations.34.6 ◽

2020 ◽

pp. 58-67

Author(s):

Rafał Hubicki ◽

Maria Richert ◽

Piotr Łebkowski ◽

Joanna Kulczycka ◽

Asja Mrotzek-Bloess

Keyword(s):

Risk Factors ◽

Risk Assessment ◽

Assessment Methods ◽

Individual Risk ◽

Fruitful Cooperation ◽

Specific Factors ◽

The Subject ◽

The Individual ◽

Risk Categories ◽

Management Of Risk

Assessment and management of risk constitute the subject of many researches. Nevertheless, many more specific factors are applicable during the implementation of innovative technological projects. On the article identified risk factors, which have been supplemented, systematized and assigned to the individual risk categories. The risk assessment methods for R&D projects have been analysed, as well as the risk sheets have been developed for the R&D project through the use of dotProject application. Also shown that networking and clustering is a change for fruitful cooperation within difference EU projects, which create trust between business and sciences and reduce the risk.

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RA09.07: SURGICAL MANAGEMENT OF EARLY ESOPHAGEAL CANCER BASED ON LYMPH NODE METASTASIS RISK.

Diseases of the Esophagus ◽

10.1093/dote/doy089.ra09.07 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 31 (Supplement_1) ◽

pp. 41-41

Author(s):

Xiaofeng Duan ◽

Zhentao Yu

Keyword(s):

Risk Factors ◽

Esophageal Cancer ◽

Lymph Node ◽

Lymph Node Dissection ◽

Tumor Location ◽

Individual Risk ◽

Node Dissection ◽

Early Esophageal Cancer ◽

Node Metastasis ◽

The Individual

Abstract Background Esophagectomy and lymph node dissection is still the main treatment for esophageal cancer. Endoscopic mucosal resection and submucosal dissection are increasingly becoming a treatment of choice to preserve the integrity of the esophagus and decrease the surgical trauma in early esophageal cancer. However, lymph node metastasos (LNM) risk is still a debate focus for the decision of treatment selection. Our objective was to evaluate the prevalence, pattern and risk factors of LNM in early stage esophageal cancer to improve surgical treatment allocation. Methods We identified patients with pathological T1 stage esophageal cancer who underwent esophagectomy and lymph node dissection. The pattern of LNM was analyzed and the risk factors related to LNM were assessed by univariate and multivariable logistic regression analysis.The nomogram model was used to estimate the individual risk of lymph node metastasis. Results In 143 patients, LNM rates were: all patients 17.5%, T1a 8.0%, and T1b 22.5% for T1b. Depth of tumor infiltration (P < 0.05), tumor size (P < 0.01), tumor location (P < 0.05), and tumor differentiation (P < 0.01) were independent risk factors related to LNM. These four parameters allowed the compilation of a nomogram to estimate the individual risk of LNM. Fig. Nomogram to estimate the individual risk of LNM. Each characteristic of the included parameters scores a specific number of points (points per parameter). The summarized total points score indicates the probability of LNM. For a middle esophageal cancer with middle differentiated (G2), 3 cm tumor (> 2.5cm) that invades the submucosa (pT1b), the calculated total scores is 129.5 = 87.5 + 21 + 0 + 21, hence the corresponding LNM risk is 20%. Conclusion T1 esophageal cancer has a relatively high LNM rate, and the depth of tumor infiltration, tumor size, tumor location and tumor differentiation are correlated with LNM. Nomograms that include factors can be used to predict individual LNM risk. The LNM risk and extent must be considered comprehensively in decision-making of a better surgical treatment and lymph node dissection strategy. Disclosure All authors have declared no conflicts of interest.

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Individual and Environmental Factors Associated with Recurrent Falls in Elderly Patients Hospitalized after Falls

International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health ◽

10.3390/ijerph17072441 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 17 (7) ◽

pp. 2441

Author(s):

Hai Minh Vu ◽

Long Hoang Nguyen ◽

Huong Lan Thi Nguyen ◽

Giang Thu Vu ◽

Cuong Tat Nguyen ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Risk Factors ◽

Environmental Factors ◽

Elderly Patients ◽

Environmental Conditions ◽

Social Consequences ◽

Individual Risk ◽

Cross Sectional ◽

Factors Associated ◽

Recurrent Falls ◽

The Individual

Falls and recurrent falls cause great health and social consequences in older people. However, these problems are poorly understood in Vietnam. A cross-sectional study was performed at seven hospitals in Thai Binh province, Vietnam, to investigate the individual and environmental factors associated with recurrent falls among elderly patients hospitalized due to fall injuries in Vietnam. A history of recurrent falls within the last 12 months, sociodemographic, health, and clinical characteristics, as well as environmental conditions, were obtained via self-reported interviews. Multivariate logistic and Poisson regression models were used to identify associated factors. Overall, the mean fall episodes in the last 12 months were 1.8 (Standard deviation—SD = 1.2) episodes, and the 12-month prevalence of recurrent falls was 40.5%. The individual risk factors included not receiving fall prevention guidelines, walking with devices, loss of sensation in hand or foot, and using pain relief medications. The environmental risk factors comprised having too-high stairs and not having dry, clean, and nonslippery bathrooms. This study highlights a significantly high 12-month prevalence of recurrent falls in older patients hospitalized after falls in Vietnam. Moreover, regular assessments of functional disabilities and hazardous environmental conditions, as well as the provision of prevention programs, have potential to prevent falls and recurrent falls.

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METHODOLOGICAL APPROACHES TO EVALUATION AND PREDICTION OF INDIVIDUAL RISK TO HEALTH UNDER THE EXPOSURE TO A COMPLEX OF DIFFERENT FACTORS FOR TASKS OF PERSONALIZED PROPHYLAXIS

Hygiene and Sanitation ◽

10.18821/0016-9900-2018-97-1-34-43 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 97 (1) ◽

pp. 34-43

Author(s):

Marina A. Zemlyanova ◽

N. V. Zaytseva ◽

D. A. Kiryanov ◽

O. Yu. Ustinova

Keyword(s):

Risk Factors ◽

Large Scale ◽

Epidemiological Studies ◽

Individual Risk ◽

Scientific Publications ◽

Managerial Decisions ◽

Model Library ◽

Genetic Status ◽

Somatic Status ◽

The Individual

Methodical approaches to the assessment and prediction of the individual risk for the development of diseases associated with the effect of a complex of heterogeneous factors, taking into account the features of the genetic and somatic status of the individual for the tasks of personalized prevention, are suggested. The conceptual basis of the methodology is the presentation of the individual risk for diseases as a quantity that varies with time depending on the level and duration of the exposure of the acting factors (evolution), with respect to the contribution of natural causes. There is presented a model describing the evolution of individual risk, which takes into account a complex system of dependencies of the indices of the body’s somatic state and genetic status on the variable exposure of factors. To assess the value of the individual risk, there are proposed a scale and a system of criteria for the assessment of the likelihood of the development of the disease with taking account of its severity. The established value of the individual risk in relation to a specific disease determines the list, scope and sequence of measures for the personalized prevention, and is also a measure of their effectiveness. A large-scale epidemiological study of the population (about 10 thousand people) from 12 regions of the Russian Federation was executed. There was obtained a system of dependencies which reflects the cause-effect relationships between indices characterizing the factors of habitat and lifestyle, the body’s somatic and genetic status (more than 500 indices), the probability of diseases associated with risk factors (about 20 nosological forms). There was created a special replenished information resource «Model Library» has been created, including parameters of more than 4 thousand adequate and reliable dependencies of cause-effect relationships, revealed by relying upon the results of own epidemiological studies and analysis of domestic and foreign scientific publications. An algorithm for the estimation and prediction the individual risk has been developed for the formation of personalized prevention programs aimed at its reducing. The algorithm is implemented in the form of an information and analytical system that can be used as a tool for making managerial decisions in the field of personalized prevention of diseases associated with risk factors at the group and population levels.

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The efficacy of combining several risk factors as a screening test

Journal of Medical Screening ◽

10.1258/096914105775220642 ◽

2005 ◽

Vol 12 (4) ◽

pp. 197-201 ◽

Cited By ~ 37

Author(s):

Nicholas J Wald ◽

Joan K Morris ◽

Simon Rish

Keyword(s):

Risk Factors ◽

Risk Factor ◽

False Positive ◽

Detection Rate ◽

False Positive Rate ◽

Individual Risk ◽

Detection Rates ◽

Screening Performance ◽

Positive Rate ◽

The Individual

Objective: To determine the quantitative effect on overall screening performance (detection rate for a given false-positive rate) of using several moderately strong, independent risk factors in combination as screening markers. Setting: Theoretical statistical analysis. Methods: For the purposes of this analysis, it was assumed that all risk factors were independent, had Gaussian distributions with the same standard deviation in affected and unaffected individuals and had the same screening performance. We determined the overall screening performance associated with using an increasing number of risk factors together, with each risk factor having a detection rate of 10%, 15% or 20% for a 5% false-positive rate. The overall screening performance was estimated as the detection rate for a 5% false-positive rate. Results: Combining the risk factors increased the screening performance, but the gain in detection at a constant false-positive rate was relatively modest and diminished with the addition of each risk factor. Combining three risk factors, each with a 15% detection rate for a 5% false-positive rate, yields a 28% detection rate. Combining five risk factors increases the detection rate to 39%. If the individual risk factors have a detection rate of 10% for a 5% false-positive rate, it would require combining about 15 such risk factors to achieve a comparable overall detection rate (41%). Conclusion: It is intuitively thought that combining moderately strong risk factors can substantially improve screening performance. For example, most cardiovascular risk factors that may be used in screening for ischaemic heart disease events, such as serum cholesterol and blood pressure, have a relatively modest screening performance (about 15% detection rate for a 5% false-positive rate). It would require the combination of about 15 or 20 such risk factors to achieve detection rates of about 80% for a 5% false-positive rate. This is impractical, given the risk factors so far discovered, because there are too few risk factors and their associations with disease are too weak.

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The Hamstrings: Anatomic and Physiologic Variations and Their Potential Relationships With Injury Risk

Frontiers in Physiology ◽

10.3389/fphys.2021.694604 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 12 ◽

Author(s):

José Afonso ◽

Sílvia Rocha-Rodrigues ◽

Filipe M. Clemente ◽

Michele Aquino ◽

Pantelis T. Nikolaidis ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Risk Factors ◽

Injury Risk ◽

Individual Characteristics ◽

Individual Risk ◽

Modifiable Risk Factors ◽

Fiber Types ◽

Cross Sectional ◽

Exercise Interventions ◽

Age Related ◽

The Individual

The incidence and recurrence of hamstrings injuries are very high in sports, posing elevated performance and financial-related costs. Attempts to identify the risk factors involved in predicting vulnerability to hamstrings injury is important for designing exercise-based programs that aim to mitigate the rate and severity of hamstrings injuries and improve rehabilitation strategies. However, research has shown that non-modifiable risk factors may play a greater role than modifiable risk factors. Recognizing non-modifiable risk factors and understanding their implications will afford the prescription of better suited exercise programs, i.e., that are more respectful of the individual characteristics. In a nutshell, non-modifiable risk factors can still be acted upon, even if indirectly. In this context, an underexplored topic is how intra and inter- individual anatomic and physiologic variations in hamstrings (e.g., muscle bellies, fiber types, tendon length, aponeurosis width, attachment sites, sex- and age-related differences) concur to alter hamstrings injuries risk. Some anatomic and physiologic variations may be modifiable through exercise interventions (e.g., cross-sectional area), while others may not (e.g., supernumerary muscle bellies). This apparent dichotomy may hide a greater complexity, i.e., there may be risk factors that are partially modifiable. Therefore, we explored the available information on the anatomic variations of the hamstrings, providing a deeper insight into the individual risk factors for hamstrings injuries and contributing with better knowledge and potential applications toward a more individualized exercise prescription.

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NEW SAFETY STANDARDS FOR COASTAL FLOOD DEFENCES IN THE NETHERLANDS

Coastal Engineering Proceedings ◽

10.9753/icce.v32.management.11 ◽

2011 ◽

Vol 1 (32) ◽

pp. 11

Author(s):

Sebastiaan N. Jonkman ◽

Ruben Jongejan ◽

Bob Maaskant ◽

Han Vrijling

Keyword(s):

The Netherlands ◽

Cost Benefit ◽

Policy Implications ◽

Individual Risk ◽

Safety Policy ◽

Risk Levels ◽

Safety Standards ◽

Annual Probability ◽

Societal Risk ◽

The Individual

The Dutch government is in the process of revising its flood safety policy. The current safety standards for flood defences in the Netherlands are largely based on the outcomes of cost-benefit analyses. Loss of life has not been considered separately in the choice for current standards. This article presents the results of a research project that evaluated the potential roles of two risk metrics, individual and societal risk, to support decision-making about new flood safety standards. These risk metrics are already used in the Dutch major hazards policy for the evaluation of risks to the public. Individual risk concerns the annual probability of death of a person. Societal risk concerns the probability of an event with many fatalities. Technical aspects of the use of individual and societal risk metrics in flood risk assessments as well as policy implications are discussed. Preliminary estimates of nationwide levels of societal risk are presented. Societal risk levels appear relatively high in the South Western part of the country where densely populated dike rings are threatened by a combination of river and coastal floods. Options for the application of the individual and societal risk in the new flood safety policy are presented and discussed.

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Network analysis after epigenome-wide methylation study revealed JUP as a regulator of co-methylated risk-module for T2DM

10.1101/2021.07.01.450660 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Dwaipayan Bharadwaj ◽

Anil Giri ◽

Gauri Prasad ◽

Vaisak Parekkat ◽

Donaka Rajashekar ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Risk Factors ◽

Network Analysis ◽

Association Study ◽

Indian Population ◽

Individual Risk ◽

Good Glycemic Control ◽

Significance Level ◽

Cpg Sites ◽

Low Hdl ◽

The Individual

Controlling the global Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) pandemic requires a better understanding of its risk factors across different populations, and needs markers that can precisely predict the individual risk to the disease. DNA methylation due to environmental factors is a known mechanism for conferring risk to T2DM. To identify such methylation signatures and associated risk to the disease, we performed an epigenome-wide association study (EWAS) in 844 individuals of Indo-European origin. Within the Indian population, we identified and validated 6 novel differentially methylated CpG sites in PDCD6IP, MIR1287, 5S_rRNA, HDAC9, KCNK16, and RTN1 genes associated with T2DM risk at the epigenome-wide-significance-level (p<1.2x10-7). Further, we also replicated the association of 3 known CpG sites in TXNIP, SREBF1, and CPT1A in the Indian population. Using methylation-based network analysis, we identified 4 co-methylated modules, which we named turquoise, yellow, brown, and blue, among differentially methylated CpG sites in discovery phase samples. We observed that methylation of the brown module with 28 CpG sites, associated with T2DM risk factors (e.g., BMI, insulin, C-peptide). Upon further analysis, we noted that these methylation signatures at 14 of the brown modules CpG can be used as markers to segregate T2DM patients with good glycemic control (e.g., low HbA1c) but poor lipid profile (low HDL and high TG) from the other patients. Additionally, we discovered that rs6503650 in the JUP gene regulates methylation at all the 14 hub CpG sites of the brown modules as methQTL. Our network-assisted epigenome-wide association study is the first to systematically explore DNA methylations conferring risks to T2DM. In addition, the study shows the potential use of identified risk CpG sites for patient segregation with different clinical outcomes. These findings can be useful for better stratification of patients in order to improve clinical management and treatment outcomes.

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Stroke and bleeding risk stratification in atrial fibrillation: a critical appraisal

European Heart Journal Supplements ◽

10.1093/eurheartj/suaa178 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 22 (Supplement_O) ◽

pp. O14-O27

Author(s):

Deirdre A Lane ◽

Gregory Y H Lip

Keyword(s):

Risk Factors ◽

Atrial Fibrillation ◽

Risk Stratification ◽

Stroke Prevention ◽

Critical Appraisal ◽

Treatment Decision ◽

Bleeding Risk ◽

Adverse Outcomes ◽

Individual Risk ◽

The Individual

Abstract Atrial fibrillation (AF) significantly increases the risk of stroke and, therefore, stroke prevention is an essential component of the management for patients with AF. This requires formal assessment of the individual risk of stroke to determine if the patient is eligible for oral anticoagulation (OAC), and if so, their risk of bleeding on OAC, before a treatment decision regarding stroke prevention is made. Risk of stroke is not homogenous; it depends on the presence or absence of risk factors. A plethora of stroke and bleeding risk factors has been identified, including common and less-well established clinical risk factors, plus imaging, urine, and blood biomarkers. Consequently, there are several stroke and bleeding risk stratification scores available and this article provides an overview of them, the risk factors included and how they are scored, and provides a critical appraisal of them. The review also discusses the debate regarding whether female sex is a risk factor or a risk modifier, and highlights the dynamic nature of both stroke and bleeding risk and the need to re-assess these risks periodically to ensure treatment is optimal to reduce the risk of adverse outcomes. This review also summarizes the recommended stroke and bleeding risk stratification scores from all current major international guidelines.

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