Has Omicron Changed the Evolution of the Pandemic? (Preprint)

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alexander Lundberg ◽  
Ramon Lorenzo Redondo ◽  
Egon A Ozer ◽  
Claudia Hawkins ◽  
Judd F. Hultquist ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Observational Studies ◽  
Population Level ◽  
Significant Shift ◽  
African Countries ◽  
Dynamic Panel ◽  
Public Health Policies ◽  
Viral Spread ◽  
Panel Regressions ◽  
Dynamic Panel Regression

BACKGROUND Variants of the SARS-CoV-2 virus carry differential risks to public health. The Omicron (B.1.1.529) variant, first identified in Botswana on November 11, 2021, has spread globally faster than any previous variant of concern. Understanding the transmissibility of Omicron is vital in the development of public health policy. OBJECTIVE To compare SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks driven by Omicron to those driven by prior variants of concern in terms of both the speed and magnitude of an outbreak. METHODS We analyzed trends in outbreaks by variant of concern with validated surveillance metrics in several southern African countries. The region offers an ideal setting for observational studies given that most outbreaks thus far have been driven primarily by a single variant at a time. To control for differences in total vaccinations and prior infections during different outbreaks, we estimated dynamic panel regressions to assess whether Omicron has a different trajectory. RESULTS The observed Omicron outbreaks in this study reach the outbreak threshold within 5-10 days after first detection, whereas other variants of concern have taken at least 14 days and up to as many as 35 days. The Omicron outbreaks also reach peak rates of new cases that are roughly double those of prior variants of concern. Dynamic panel regression estimates confirm Omicron has created a statistically significant shift in viral spread. CONCLUSIONS The transmissibility of Omicron is markedly higher than prior variants of concern. At the population level, the Omicron outbreaks occurred more quickly and with larger magnitude, despite substantial increases in vaccinations and prior infections, which should have otherwise reduced susceptibility to new infections. Unless public health policies are substantially altered, Omicron outbreaks in other countries are likely to occur with little warning. CLINICALTRIAL NA

scholarly journals Dynamic Panel Modeling of Climate Change

Econometrics ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (3) ◽  
pp. 30
Author(s):  
Peter C. B. Phillips
Keyword(s):  
Estimation Method ◽  
Practical Implementation ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Panel Regression ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Dynamic Panel ◽  
Panel Regressions ◽  
Regression Parameters ◽  
Dynamic Panel Regression ◽  
Temperature Radiation

We discuss some conceptual and practical issues that arise from the presence of global energy balance effects on station level adjustment mechanisms in dynamic panel regressions with climate data. The paper provides asymptotic analyses, observational data computations, and Monte Carlo simulations to assess the use of various estimation methodologies, including standard dynamic panel regression and cointegration techniques that have been used in earlier research. The findings reveal massive bias in system GMM estimation of the dynamic panel regression parameters, which arise from fixed effect heterogeneity across individual station level observations. Difference GMM and Within Group (WG) estimation have little bias and WG estimation is recommended for practical implementation of dynamic panel regression with highly disaggregated climate data. Intriguingly, from an econometric perspective and importantly for global policy analysis, it is shown that in this model despite the substantial differences between the estimates of the regression model parameters, estimates of global transient climate sensitivity (of temperature to a doubling of atmospheric CO2) are robust to the estimation method employed and to the specific nature of the trending mechanism in global temperature, radiation, and CO2.

scholarly journals Real-time estimation of R0 for supporting public-health policies against COVID-19

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sebastián Contreras ◽  
H. Andrés Villavicencio ◽  
David Medina-Ortiz ◽  
Claudia P. Saavedra ◽  
Álvaro Olivera-Nappa
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Real Time ◽  
Case Reports ◽  
Mathematical Formulation ◽  
Time Estimation ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Health Policies ◽  
Consensus Protocol ◽  
Public Health Policies ◽  
Viral Spread

AbstractBackgroundIn the absence of a consensus protocol to slow down the current SARS-CoV2 spread, policy makers are in need of real-time indicators to support decisions in public health matters. The Basic Reproduction Number (R0) represents viral spread rate and can be dramatically modified by the application of effective public control measures. However, current methodologies to calculate R0 from data remain cumbersome and unusable during an outbreak.ObjectiveTo provide a simple mathematical formulation for obtaining R0 in Real-Time, and apply it to assess the effectiveness of public-health policies in different iconic countries.Study designBy modifying the equations describing the spread of the virus, we derived a real-time R0 estimator that can be readily calculated from daily official case reports.ResultsWe show the application of a time trend analysis of the R0 estimator to assess the efficacy and promptness of public health measures that impacted on the development of the COVID-19 epidemic in iconic countries.ConclusionsWe propose our simple estimator and method as useful tools to follow and assess in real time the effectiveness of public health policies on COVID-19 evolution.

scholarly journals 9.I. Workshop: Healthy ageing and public health: a bound fate

2020 ◽  
Vol 30 (Supplement_5) ◽  
Author(s):  
◽  
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Older Adults ◽  
Community Care ◽  
Population Level ◽  
Healthy Ageing ◽  
Health Policies ◽  
Model Of Care ◽  
Term Care ◽  
Public Health Policies

Abstract The promotion of healthy ageing at all ages of life is a key point of public health strategy in almost all health systems throughout the world with a special focus on the systems of the advanced economies. The World Health Organization promotes a lifespan approach in order to put the basis of healthy ageing in the early life, supported by a growing set of data that show the relevance of life habits and socio-economic condition since the childhood for the older adults' health. However, we already witness the impact of large cohort of older adults who fuel the demand for health and social services, with worrying projection for the next 20-30 years in terms of economic stressors on the public finances coming from the request for Long Term Care as well as for Acute care services. Prevention at all age, namely at older age, is crucial to manage the demand for care. What interventions can lead this approach? What model of care could be put on the field in order to offer a mix of integrate health and social care able to meet the individual needs and to promote the best possible quality of life for each individual? what is the role of bio-psycho-social frailty as synthetic indicator of the needs of care at population level as well as of key information to stratify the risk of negative event at individual level? what professionals should be more involved in the new model of community care? what pathway in terms of training could we promote in the next years to support the shift from acute to long term care? what contribution should be asked to civil society to allow the spread of community care? Answers to these questions should fit with different geographical, political, social and economic settings as well as with different health systems. At the same time the development of a multidimensional assessment of the demand of care, both at individual and population level, is a crucial step to plan effective interventions. The main obstacles to this process seem to stem from the organization of community care still in silos with rare collaboration among different professionals. To overcome the obstacles a mindset change should be achieved mainly by training of personnel to set up a new model of care based on the systematic interaction among the prevention and care actors. Moreover, a pro-active component of prevention and care programs at community level, could strengthen many interventions that address a population which is not always aware of the risk associated to the progression of frailty. Finally, ICT devices could provide a valuable contribution to the reshuffling of community care, if they are embedded in a comprehensive model including a robust investment in human resources. The aim of the workshop is to report on the challenges that healthy ageing process has to face in different world areas and to discuss future developments likely to affect public health policies. Key messages Multidimensional approach to public health policies aimed at increasing health promotion programs impact on older adults is the key to promote healthy ageing. Pro-active services could increase the involvement of older adults’ population into healthy ageing program.

scholarly journals Beyond the new normal: Assessing the feasibility of vaccine-based suppression of SARS-CoV-2

PLoS ONE ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (7) ◽  
pp. e0254734
Author(s):  
Madison Stoddard ◽  
Sharanya Sarkar ◽  
Lin Yuan ◽  
Ryan P. Nolan ◽  
Douglas E. White ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Population Level ◽  
Disease Suppression ◽  
Modeling Framework ◽  
Positive Role ◽  
Health Crisis ◽  
Epidemiological Modeling ◽  
Viral Spread ◽  
Public Health Crisis ◽  
Biomedical Interventions

As the COVID-19 pandemic drags into its second year, there is hope on the horizon, in the form of SARS-CoV-2 vaccines which promise disease suppression and a return to pre-pandemic normalcy. In this study we critically examine the basis for that hope, using an epidemiological modeling framework to establish the link between vaccine characteristics and effectiveness in bringing an end to this unprecedented public health crisis. Our findings suggest that a return to pre-pandemic social and economic conditions without fully suppressing SARS-CoV-2 will lead to extensive viral spread, resulting in a high disease burden even in the presence of vaccines that reduce risk of infection and mortality. Our modeling points to the feasibility of complete SARS-CoV-2 suppression with high population-level compliance and vaccines that are highly effective at reducing SARS-CoV-2 infection. Notably, vaccine-mediated reduction of transmission is critical for viral suppression, and in order for partially-effective vaccines to play a positive role in SARS-CoV-2 suppression, complementary biomedical interventions and public health measures must be deployed simultaneously.

Exploring the World Trade Organisation's Trade and Environment/Public Health Jurisprudence as a Model for Incorporating a Trade–Labour Linkage into the Organisation's Multilateral Trade Regime: Should African Countries Accept a Policy Shift?

2017 ◽  
Vol 25 (1) ◽  
pp. 47-65
Author(s):  
Tapiwa V. Warikandwa ◽  
Patrick C. Osode
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Developing Countries ◽  
World Trade ◽  
African Countries ◽  
Trade Regime ◽  
Multilateral Trade ◽  
Appellate Body ◽  
The World ◽  
Labour Standards ◽  
The Impact

The incorporation of a trade-labour (standards) linkage into the multilateral trade regime of the World Trade Organisation (WTO) has been persistently opposed by developing countries, including those in Africa, on the grounds that it has the potential to weaken their competitive advantage. For that reason, low levels of compliance with core labour standards have been viewed as acceptable by African countries. However, with the impact of WTO agreements growing increasingly broader and deeper for the weaker and vulnerable economies of developing countries, the jurisprudence developed by the WTO Panels and Appellate Body regarding a trade-environment/public health linkage has the potential to address the concerns of developing countries regarding the potential negative effects of a trade-labour linkage. This article argues that the pertinent WTO Panel and Appellate Body decisions could advance the prospects of establishing a linkage of global trade participation to labour standards without any harm befalling developing countries.

PENERAPAN CLUSTERING PADA PENDUDUK YANG MEMPUNYAI KELUHAN KESEHATAN DENGAN DATAMINING K-MEANS

2018 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Nurul Rofiqo ◽  
Agus Perdana Windarto ◽  
Dedy Hartama
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Data Mining ◽  
Population Level ◽  
Research Data ◽  
Health Complaints ◽  
Public Health Services ◽  
National Statistics ◽  
Central Java ◽  
Indonesian Population ◽  
The Government

This study aims to utilize Clushtering Algorithm in grouping the number of people who have health complaints with the K-means algorithm in Indonesia. The source of this research data was collected based on the documents of the provincial population which had health complaints produced by the National Statistics Agency. The data used in this study are data from 2013-2017 consisting of 34 provinces. The method used in this research is K-means Algorithm. Data will be processed by clushtering in 3 clushter, namely clusther high health complaints, clusther moderate and low health complaints. Centroid data for high population level clusters 37.48, Centroid data for moderate population level clusters 27.08, and Centroid data for low population level clusters 14.89. So that obtained an assessment based on the population index that has health complaints with 7 provinces of high health complaints, namely Central Java, Yogyakarta, Bali, West Nusa Tenggara, East Nusa Tenggara, South Kalimantan, Gorontalo, 18 provinces of moderate health complaints, and 9 other provinces including low health complaints. This can be an input to the government to give more attention to residents in each region who have high health complaints through improving public health services so that the Indonesian population becomes healthier without health complaints.Keywords: data mining, health complaints, clustering, K-means, Indonesian residents

Crowdsourcing Covid-19 signals in sub-Saharan Africa: Leveraging digital contributor networks for participatory surveillance of Covid-19 symptoms and deaths (Preprint)

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ngozi A Erondu ◽  
Sagal A Ali ◽  
Mohamed Ali ◽  
Schadrac C Agbla
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Sub Saharan Africa ◽  
Specific Information ◽  
Surveillance Systems ◽  
Health Seeking ◽  
African Countries ◽  
Cross Sectional Survey ◽  
Local Networks ◽  
The World ◽  
Sub Saharan

BACKGROUND In sub-Saharan Africa, underreporting of cases and deaths has been attributed to various factors including, weak disease surveillance, low health-seeking behaviour of flu like symptoms, and stigma of Covid-19. There is evidence that SARS-CoV-2 spread mimics transmission patterns of other countries across the world. Since the Covid-19 pandemic has changed the way research can be conducted and in light of restrictions on travel and risks to in-person data collection, innovative approaches to collecting data must be considered. Nearly 50% of Africa’s population is a unique mobile subscriber and it is one of the fastest growing smart-phone marketplaces in the world; hence, mobile phone platforms should be considered to monitor Covid-19 trends in the community. OBJECTIVE We demonstrate the use of digital contributor platforms to survey individuals about cases of flu-like symptoms and instances of unexplained deaths in Ethiopia, Kenya, Nigeria, Somalia, and Zimbabwe. METHODS Rapid cross-sectional survey of individuals with severe flu and pneumonia symptoms and unexplained deaths in Ethiopia, Kenya, Nigeria, Somalia and Zimbabwe RESULTS Using a non-health specific information platform, we found COVID-19 signals in five African countries, specifically: •Across countries, nearly half of the respondents (n=739) knew someone who had severe flu or pneumonia symptoms in recent months. •One in three respondents from Somalia and one in five from Zimbabwe respondents said they knew more than five people recently displaying flu and/or pneumonia symptoms. •In Somalia there were signals that a large number of people might be dying outside of health facilities, specifically in their homes or in IDP or refugee camps. CONCLUSIONS Existing digital contributor platforms with local networks are a non-traditional data source that can provide information from the community to supplement traditional government surveillance systems and academic surveys. We demonstrate that using these distributor networks to for community surveys can provide periodic information on rumours but could also be used to capture local sentiment to inform public health decision-making; for example, these insights could be useful to inform strategies to increase confidence in Covid19 vaccine. As Covid-19 continues to spread somewhat silently across sub-Saharan Africa, regional and national public health entities should consider expanding event-based surveillance sources to include these systems.

Fidelity and Its Relationship to Implementation Effectiveness, Adaptation, and Dissemination

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jennifer D. Allen ◽  
Rachel C. Shelton ◽  
Karen M. Emmons ◽  
Laura A. Linnan
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Treatment Strategies ◽  
Implementation Fidelity ◽  
Population Level ◽  
The United States ◽  
Dissemination And Implementation ◽  
Evidence Based ◽  
Health Gains ◽  
Significant Public Health ◽  
Research Continuum

There is substantial variability in the implementation of evidence-based interventions across the United States, which leads to inconsistent access to evidence-based prevention and treatment strategies at a population level. Increased dissemination and implementation of evidence-based interventions could result in significant public health gains. While the availability of evidence-based interventions is increasing, study of implementation, adaptation, and dissemination has only recently gained attention in public health. To date, insufficient attention has been given to the issue of fidelity. Consideration of fidelity is necessary to balance the need for internal and external validity across the research continuum. There is also a need for a more robust literature to increase knowledge about factors that influence fidelity, strategies for maximizing fidelity, methods for measuring and analyzing fidelity, and examining sources of variability in implementation fidelity.

Tobacco as a Matter of Public Health: Ethical Issues

2019 ◽  
pp. 494-510
Author(s):  
Kristin Voigt
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Tobacco Use ◽  
Ethical Issues ◽  
Population Level ◽  
Third Parties ◽  
Background Factors ◽  
Normative Issues

This chapter considers normative issues that tobacco raises at the population level, particularly with respect to the anti-smoking strategies policymakers might pursue and the reasons and justifications underlying these strategies. After setting out several background factors that shape the debate, the chapter discusses different grounds on which state and public health actors might seek to restrict tobacco use, considering in turn those justifications that focus on protecting smokers and those that seek to protect third parties. The chapter then considers normative problems arising in relation to specific anti-smoking strategies, such as restrictions on the sale, use, and marketing of cigarettes; taxation; incentives for cessation; and denormalization strategies. Issues of paternalism and the stigma associated with smoking are also discussed.

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