Estimators of R0 derived from mechanistic models

Author(s):  
Odo Diekmann ◽  
Hans Heesterbeek ◽  
Tom Britton

This chapter presents a selection of methods to estimate a value of the basic reproduction number R₀ from a variety of available data. The estimation of R₀ is important, as these play a major role, for example, in gauging outbreak potential, and in public health decisions on prevention and control effort. The chapter focuses on three topics: (i) generalizing estimators presented earlier in the book based on final-size epidemic data or age-structured endemic data; (ii) controlled (transmission) experiments performed to estimate transmission potential and duration of infectivity; and (iii) the infectious agent is emerging, either for the first time or for the first time in a particular host population, so very little is known and outbreak data are becoming available “in real time,” as the epidemic progresses.

2020 ◽  
pp. 175717742097184
Author(s):  
Evonne T Curran ◽  
Emma Burnett ◽  
Jude Robinson ◽  
Heather Loveday

Background: The devolution of health to Scotland in 1999, led for the first time in the NHS, to different priorities and success indicators for infection prevention and control (IPC). This project sought to understand, compare and evaluate the national IPC priorities and available indicators of success. Aim: To identify the national IPC priorities alongside national indicators of success. Methods: Critical analysis of nationally produced documents and publicly available infection-related data up to March 2018. Findings: For both NHS Scotland and England the local and national IPC priorities are evidenced by: (1) people being cared for in an IPC-safe environment; (2) staff following IPC-safe procedures; and (3) organisations continuously striving not just to attain standards, but to improve on them. If national agencies that produce data were also charged with using a Continuous Quality Improvement (CQI) model, then there would be further opportunities to detect and improve on successes.


Author(s):  
Lucía CASADO CASADO ◽  
Josep Ramon FUENTES I GASO

LABURPENA: Lan honetan, Europako Parlamentuaren eta Kontseiluaren 2010/75/EB Zuzentarauaren eragina aztertzen da. Horretarako, lehenik eta behin, Zuzentarauaren inguruabarrak eta alderdi azpimarragarrienak adierazten dira, eta, ondoren, ingurumen-ikuskaritzaren araubidean murgiltzen da. Oso gai berria da, ingurumen-ikuskaritzari buruzko gutxieneko araudi bat sortu den lehenengo aldia baita; orain arte, arau-baliorik gabeko Europako gomendio bat besterik ez zegoen. Hain zuzen ere, Estatu kideei gai horretan ezarritako betebeharrak aztertzen dira lanean; instalazioen gaineko ingurumen-ikuskaritzako sistema bat ezartzekoa, eta aurrezarritako ingurumen ikuskaritzako programen oinarrian egongo diren ikuskaritza planak osatzekoa, instalazioak bisitatzeko maiztasuna instalazioaren beraren motaren arabera finkatuta. Era berean, Zuzentaraua Espainiara egokitzeari buruzko oharrak egiten dira, aintzat hartuta orain dela gutxi ekainaren 11ko 5/2013 Legea onartu dela, kutsaduraren prebentzio eta kontrol integratuari buruzko uztailaren 1eko 16/2002 Legea eta hondakinen eta lurzoru kutsatuen gaineko uztailaren 28ko 22/2011 Legea aldatzen dituena. Lege berri horren eta egun izapidetzen ari diren garapen-erregelamenduen bidez, bermatuta geldituko da Zuzentarauaren egokitzea. RESUMEN: Este trabajo analiza el impacto de la Directiva 2010/75/UE del Parlamento Europeo y del Consejo, de 24 de noviembre de 2010, sobre las emisiones industriales en el régimen jurídico de la inspección ambiental. Con este fin, tras realizar una aproximación general a esta Directiva y señalar sus aspectos más destacables, se centra en el examen de la regulación de la inspección ambiental en ella contenida, aspecto muy novedoso por ser la primera vez que se incluye una regulación mínima de la inspección ambiental, que hasta ahora únicamente había sido objeto —a nivel comunitario— de una recomendación sin valor normativo, en una Directiva. Concretamente, se analizan las obligaciones establecidas para los Estados miembros en esta materia, que se traducen principalmente en la obligación de establecer un sistema de inspección medioambiental de las instalaciones y de formular planes de inspección a partir de los cuales se elaborarán programas de inspección medioambiental prefijada, que incluyan la frecuencia de las visitas a los emplazamientos para los distintos tipos de instalaciones. También se realizan algunos apuntes sobre la transposición de esta Directiva en España, teniendo en cuenta que recientemente se ha aprobado la Ley 5/2013, de 11 de junio, por la que se modifican la Ley 16/2002, de 1 de julio, de prevención y control integrados de la contaminación y la Ley 22/2011, de 28 de julio, de residuos y suelos contaminados, que, junto con su reglamento de desarrollo —actualmente en trámite—, garantizará la transposición de la Directiva. ABSTRACT: This study analyses the impact of Directive 2010/75/EU of the European Parliament and the Council, of 24 November 2010, on industrial emissions on the legislation governing environmental inspection. To this end, after providing a general discussion of the Directive and pointing out its most outstanding features, we focus on the regulation of environmental inspection that it contains. This is its most novel feature because it is the first time that a minimal regulation of environmental inspection has been included in a directive (to date, within the community, it had only been the object of a recommendation of no normative value). In particular, our study focuses on the obligations of the member states in this area, which are largely to set up a system by which installations can be environmentally inspected and inspection plans drafted on the basis of which programmes for routine environmental inspection will be drawn up that include the frequency of site visits for different types of installations. Also discussed is the transposition of the Directive in Spain, bearing in mind that Law 5/2013, of 11 June, has recently been passed to modify Law 16/2002, of 1 July, on the integrated prevention and control of pollution, and Law 22/2011, of 28 July on waste and polluted soil which, in conjunction with their regulation for implementation, guarantee the transposition of the Directive.


2021 ◽  
Vol 12 ◽  
Author(s):  

Chikungunya fever (CHIKF) is an arbovirus disease caused by chikungunya virus (CHIKV), an alphavirus of Togaviridae family. Transmission follows a human-mosquito-human cycle starting with a mosquito bite. Subsequently, symptoms develop after 2–6 days of incubation, including high fever and severe arthralgia. The disease is self-limiting and usually resolve within 2 weeks. However, chronic disease can last up to several years with persistent polyarthralgia. Overlapping symptoms and common vector with dengue and malaria present many challenges for diagnosis and treatment of this disease. CHIKF was reported in India in 1963 for the first time. After a period of quiescence lasting up to 32 years, CHIKV re-emerged in India in 2005. Currently, every part of the country has become endemic for the disease with outbreaks resulting in huge economic and productivity losses. Several mutations have been identified in circulating strains of the virus resulting in better adaptations or increased fitness in the vector(s), effective transmission, and disease severity. CHIKV evolution has been a significant driver of epidemics in India, hence, the need to focus on proper surveillance, and implementation of prevention and control measure in the country. Presently, there are no licensed vaccines or antivirals available; however, India has initiated several efforts in this direction including traditional medicines. In this review, we present the current status of CHIKF in India.


2015 ◽  
Vol 1 (2) ◽  
pp. 87-102 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Eilenberg ◽  
J.M. Vlak ◽  
C. Nielsen-LeRoux ◽  
S. Cappellozza ◽  
A.B. Jensen

Increased production of insects on a large scale for food and feed will likely lead to many novel challenges, including problems with diseases. We provide an overview of important groups of insect pathogens, which can cause disease in insects produced for food and feed. Main characteristics of each pathogen group (viruses, bacteria, fungi, protists and nematodes) are described and illustrated, with a selection of examples from the most commonly produced insect species for food and feed. Honeybee and silkworm are mostly produced for other reasons than as human food, yet we can still use them as examples to learn about emergence of new diseases in production insects. Results from a 2014 survey about insect diseases in current insect production systems are presented for the first time. Finally, we give some recommendations for the prevention and control of insect diseases.


2019 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 86-104
Author(s):  
Hawa’ Hidayatul Hikmiyah ◽  
Aspandi Aspandi Aspandi

In carrying out marriage there are harmony and conditions that must be met, includes the existence of a prospective husband, prospective wife, marriage guardian, two witnesses, and qobul consent, the provision is based on KHI article 14 in chapter IV concerning the terms of marriage. But in 2019, the East Java region imposed a urine test on the bride and groom as additional marriage conditional. Urine test conducted for the bride and groom is a policy of the regional office of the ministry of religion in East Java in an effort to reduce the number of drug abuse. Because the number of drug users in East Java is very high and has expanded to remote areas of the village so that prevention and control effort are needed evenly, efficiently and structured. With the enactment of the policy of the regional office of the ministry of religion in East Java above, the religious affairs office obliges the bride and groom to take a medical and urine test. Implementation of this urine test will not obstruct the marriage process of the bride and groom, if one or both brides are proven to use narcotics, the bride and groom will get rehabilitation treatment by the East Java BNNP. This is done so that the condition in question does not become worse after marriage. Using the analysis of Istihsan al Syarakhsy shows that there is harmony and as a reinforcement that the urgency of urine tests for brides is a form of response both done in an effort to get justice and benefit.


2021 ◽  
Vol 37 (3) ◽  
pp. 175-178
Author(s):  
Ángel S. Gómez-Rivera ◽  
Rahuel J. Chan-Chablé ◽  
Karla L. Canto-Mis ◽  
Pedro C. Mis-Ávila ◽  
Fabián Correa-Morales ◽  
...  

ABSTRACT Anopheles darlingi is considered the main vector of malaria in the Neotropical region, so knowledge of its distribution in the Americas is highly relevant for the design of strategies for prevention and control of the illness. In Mexico, An. darlingi was recorded for the first time in 1943, and currently its distribution covers the states of Campeche, Chiapas, Quintana Roo, and Tabasco. In this study, new distribution data and observations of the abundance of An. darlingi in 14 localities of Quintana Roo, southeastern Mexico, are presented.


2007 ◽  
Vol 12 (51) ◽  
Author(s):  
◽  

This year has been a very important milestone in the history of Eurosurveillance. The European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) took over the funding and production of the journal in March with the result that, for the first time since its launch in 1995, the whole editorial team began operating from a single location.


2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (SPL1) ◽  
pp. 304-309
Author(s):  
Meena Shamrao Deogade

Ayurveda always recommended the holistic approach for the prevention of diseases, health promotion and curing the ailments. Agnihotra/Yagya/ homa is a part of Indian rituals, and one of the ancient therapy of healing recommended by Ayurveda. An agnihotra is a simple form of homa. Various materials are used in this therapy like cow dung cake, rice, ghee and medicinal plants either as a firewood or Samidha, which are helpful for purification of the atmosphere resulting in prevention and control of various communicable diseases. In Ayurveda epidemic or pandemic has been described as Janapadodhwansa Rogas. And causative factors mentioned that vitiation of Vayu (air), Jala (water), Desh (area), and Kala (season). Abhishyangaja (effects of pathogens, evil forces and unhygienic condition) is also one of the causes of epidemic/ pandemic. For this reason, Ayurveda advocated sterilization of water, air, soil and atmosphere with the help of Agnihotra, i.e. Homa, Yagya, Dhupana. As Agnihotra is applied in Ayurveda for therapeutic purpose is also known as Homa therapy. Many studies showed the antimicrobial activity of smoke raises from Agnihotra. When the whole world is facing the pandemic Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), need to think about this therapy. According to world meter, there are 1,853,155 cases, 114,247 deaths till 13 April 2020. Hence it is the right time to think about the control and preventive measures of the infectious agent (SARS-Cov-2) of COVID-19 disease with the help of Agnihotra/Homa therapy.


2021 ◽  
pp. 842-856
Author(s):  
Ida Samidah ◽  
. Susiwati

Teenagers are a vulnerable demographic with regards to the risk of becoming drug users. The high levels of drug abuse at a young age in Indonesia are a growing source of concern. Effective drug abuse prevention needs to start with primary prevention by individuals, families, groups and communities. This study evaluates the empowerment of Dasa Wisma and the homestead program, to identify the influence of the empowerment of Dasa Wisma through partnership on the effectiveness of anti-drug cadres and families in the Ratu Agung Sub-district of Bengkulu City. This research type is quantitative with quasi-experimental design. The design used was pre-test and post-test with control group design (quasi-experiment with control). While the treatment group who felt empowered counted 34.78%, the control group only 12.5% felt empowered, with P value = 0.00. The empowerment of Dasa Wisma affects knowledge, attitude, perception, religiosity, use of spare time, peer group, family harmony and family communication with value P = 0.00. It also affects the liveliness of anti-drug cadres with a value of P = 0.008. Dasa Wisma affects the family activeness in the prevention and control of drugs in teenagers with a value of P = 0.00. Conclusion: it can be concluded that the empowerment of Dasa Wisma as a partner in Ratu Agung sub-district of Bengkulu affects the prevention and tackling of drug abuse in teenagers, either by anti-drug cadres or by family.   Keywords: Empowerment, Dasa Wisma, partner, drugs


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