Researching the economic dynamics of high technology products

2020 ◽  
Vol 19 (4) ◽  
pp. 683-706
Author(s):  
A.V. Leonov ◽  
A.Yu. Pronin
Keyword(s):  
Nonlinear Dynamics ◽  
Initial Conditions ◽  
Technological Development ◽  
Probabilistic Approach ◽  
High Tech ◽  
Nonlinear Processes ◽  
Government Programs ◽  
Economic Dynamics ◽  
Technology Products ◽  
Macroeconomic Indicators

Subject. The article addresses the issue of adequate representation of economic dynamics. It considers the need to take into account internal nonlinear processes being an important factor and additional mechanism for managing the economic dynamics. Objectives. The purpose is to rationalize a transition to a new probabilistic mapping of economic dynamics based on modern methods of nonlinear dynamics, which enables to establish the relationship between internal nonlinear processes and macroeconomic indicators of the economic system. Methods. We employ a systems analysis of stages of State-run programs formation, a probabilistic approach to representing the economic dynamics on the basis of fundamental concepts and methods of nonlinear dynamics. Results. We analyzed the cycles of government program formation for developing the high-tech products, established the identity of the main stages of economic and nonlinear dynamics. We also designed a methodology for studying the economic dynamics, which rests on the use of nonlinear dynamics methods. Modeling the processes of economic dynamics made it possible to determine the causes of its sensitivity to initial conditions and exponential divergence of its trajectory at initial stages of government programs formation. The paper presents methods to choose the optimal model of economic dynamics when substantiating and drafting the said programs. Conclusions. The findings can be used to improve methodological tools for managing the creation of high-tech products when elaborating long-term technological programs, to reduce risk inherent in their implementation, to determine methods and ways for sustainable innovative and technological development of the country.

scholarly journals Ersatz Capitalism in Indonesian Automotive Industry during The New Order Era, 1969—1998

2018 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 157
Author(s):  
Insan Praditya Anugrah
Keyword(s):  
Automotive Industry ◽  
Foreign Capital ◽  
Technological Development ◽  
New Order ◽  
Government Programs ◽  
Self Reliance ◽  
High Profit ◽  
Technology Products ◽  
Historical Trajectory

This paper examines a historical trajectory using Kunio Yoshihara’s concept of ersatz capitalism to analyze the development of Indonesian automotive Industry during New Order Era, 1969-1998. The concept analyzes the fact that the ersatz capitalism structure and ersatz capitalists behavior had caused the failure of Indonesian automotive Industry development to achieve self-reliance. Ersatz Capitalism is characterized by patronage between capitalists and bureaucrats, the capitalists reluctance to invest in research and technological development, foreign capital and foreign technology domination, and the domestic capitalists role that act only as a distributor of the manufactured high-technology products of foreign principals instead of doing research and development, in order to seek immediate high profit return with minimum investment. Through the research, this paper analyzes the role of the ersatz capitalists from the various background such as military, Chinese capitalists, and president families and relatives had supported foreign principal domination In Indonesia. Those capitalists are reluctant to support government programs toward self-reliance industry and choose to strengthen their ties with foreign principals, in order to get immediate profit return without much investment and technological research.

World experience in using the program-targeted planning methods for high-tech industry development

2020 ◽  
Vol 19 (9) ◽  
pp. 1723-1735
Author(s):  
A.Yu. Pronin
Keyword(s):  
Russian Federation ◽  
Technological Development ◽  
High Tech ◽  
Economic Activities ◽  
High Tech Industry ◽  
Industry Development ◽  
Foreign Countries ◽  
Planning Methods ◽  
The Russian Federation ◽  
Development Objectives

Subject. The article investigates the program-targeted planning methodology, which is implemented in the Russian Federation and leading foreign countries, for high-tech industry development. Objectives. The aim is to identify the specifics of program-targeted planning for the development of high-tech industries, to shape programs and plans for innovative development in the Russian Federation and leading foreign countries. Methods. The study employs general scientific methods of systems analysis, including the statistical and logical analysis. Results. I reviewed methods of program-targeted planning, implemented by the world’s leading countries (the Russian Federation, United States of America, France, Great Britain, Netherlands, Norway, Japan, Canada), in the interests of the development of various high-tech sectors of the economy. The study established that the methodology of program-targeted management is an effective tool for resource allocation by various types of economic activities in accordance with national priorities. I developed proposals by priority areas for improving the methodology for program-targeted planning and management in the Russian Federation in modern economic conditions. Conclusions. The findings and presented proposals can be used to improve methods for program-targeted planning to develop high-tech sectors of the economy; to design various long-term programs and plans, reducing the risk of their implementation; to determine the ways and methods of sustainable socio-economic and innovative and technological development of the world's leading economies.

Rising to Grand Challenges: A Need for a Comprehensive Rusafrica Рroject

2018 ◽  
pp. 11-24
Author(s):  
Leonid Fituni
Keyword(s):  
Development Strategy ◽  
Technological Development ◽  
High Technology ◽  
Mutual Cooperation ◽  
Grand Challenges ◽  
Cooperative Approach ◽  
Technology Products ◽  
Innovative Products ◽  
The Russian Federation ◽  
Scientific And Technological Development

The author presents a vision of the mainstream vectors of global development against the backdrop of the “Grand Challenges” of the 21st century. He formulates optimal ways for Russia and Africa to interact in order to achieve the goals set by the UN Third International Conference on Financing for Development. The author proposes a RUSAFRICA project, which combines a dual goal of boosting economic, social and technological development of both Russia and Africa. The project envisages an integrated cooperative approach to mutually significant economic, technological and infrastructural requirements and capacities while prioritizing the human development aspect. Innovative approaches to mutual cooperation shale open ways to promoting Russian technologies and innovative products to new markets, generating growth of income from exports of high technology products and services with the aim to enhance Russia’s influence and competitive strengths, in accordance with the Scientific and Technological Development Strategy of the Russian Federation.

Current Trends in the International Economic Activity of Ukraine

2021 ◽  
pp. 47-55
Author(s):  
Ljudmila Romaniuk ◽  
Keyword(s):  
International Economic ◽  
Economic Performance ◽  
Economic Activity ◽  
Public Diplomacy ◽  
Technological Development ◽  
Value Added ◽  
Machine Building ◽  
Raw Material ◽  
High Tech ◽  
Economic Relations

International economic activity occupies a special place in a complex system of the global economic relations. It reflects the mutual economic dependence of trade and economic activities of different countries of the world. The significance of the development of international economic performance of each country is growing. The purpose of the article is to determine the current state and trends of international economic performance of Ukraine, taking into account changes in the external environment. SWOT-analysis was introduced to identify strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, threats and ways to overcome weaknesses, solve problems in international economic activity, use strengths and opportunities. International economic activity is a powerful factor in the development of the country's economy and has a significant potential in regard of natural, economic and human resources, but the study has also revealed problems and negative trends. To identify trends in the effectiveness of the country's international economic activity, export-import performance indicators for 2019, 2020 and similar indicators for 2013 were analyzed. In 2020 a decline in exports in the machine-building industry is observed. Furthermore, the exports are dominated by the raw material component. The growth rate of exported goods refers to industries with a small share of value added. At the same time, imports are dominated by high-tech products, indicating a lack of strategy of technical and technological development, which leads to the deindustrialization of the country, which is a significant threat to the economy of Ukraine as a whole and its international economic activity. In the context of economic globalization, the importance of international economic relations is growing. To increase the efficiency of international economic performance it is crucial to address a number of domestic issues: stabilization of political situation, termination of military actions in the east of the country, overcoming corruption, ensuring technical and technological development, implementation of innovations at enterprises, development and implementation of multi-vector strategy, implementation of the strategy of public diplomacy in order to build a positive image of Ukraine. Further research will focus on assessing the effectiveness of international economic activity, identifying threats to national competitiveness and elaborating recommendations for overcoming them.

BRICS Countries Possible Areas for Scientific Cooperation

2015 ◽  
pp. 14-23
Author(s):  
I. Dezhina
Keyword(s):  
Research And Development ◽  
New Technologies ◽  
Technological Development ◽  
High Tech ◽  
Preliminary Evaluation ◽  
Exploratory Research ◽  
Scientific Cooperation ◽  
Brics Countries ◽  
The World ◽  
A Share

The article evaluates science sectors and effectiveness of scientific research in the countries forming the BRICS group, as well as the current state of scientific and technological cooperation among the group members. The science sectors of the countries under consideration differ markedly, while facing similar problems relating to government regulations and external environments. The differences exist in total expenditures on research and development (as a share of GNP), in the scope of governmental funding (large in Russia and India, but small in China), and in the distribution of allocations among various areas and types of R&D activities. China appears to have the most well-adjusted science sector among the BRICS members. It includes not only strong universities but also high-tech companies that invest actively into research and development. The overall impact (inferred from citation indexes) of fundamental and exploratory research performed in BRICS countries remains low. BRICS's scientists prefer to collaborate with their colleagues from the world-leading countries rather than with their fellows from BRICS. Yet, in contrast to the world trend, in all BRICS countries, except Russia, a share of internationally co-authored publications is now decreasing. BRICS members have more similar interests and priorities in technological development, including infrastructural and large technological projects, than in science. Currently, bilateral cooperation in technology prevails, while the projects involving all members of the group still remain at the stage of preliminary evaluation and discussion. Russia cooperates most closely with China and India, including joint projects in such high-priority directions as new materials, photonics, biomedical, space and information technologies. For Russia, cooperation in technological development appears to be of most interest because it can lead not only to introduction of new technologies but also help to create large Russian innovative companies. Development of successful multilateral cooperation in science and technology among the BRICS members is the key for this group, originally formed for geopolitical reasons, to evolve into an effective economic union.

The long-term development of Russian biotech sector

foresight ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 19 (5) ◽  
pp. 491-500 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anna Grebenyuk ◽  
Nikolai Ravin
Keyword(s):  
High Performance ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Technological Development ◽  
Science And Technology ◽  
Plant Biotechnology ◽  
High Tech ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Research Areas ◽  
Research Activities ◽  
The Usa

Purpose To define strategic directions for the Russia’s social, economic, scientific and technological development in 2011-2013, a large-scale foresight study including the deep analysis of prospects of biotechnology development there was undertaken (Russia 2030: Science and Technology Foresight). This paper aims to present results of this research. Design/methodology/approach The study was based on a combination of technology-push and market-pull approaches that aimed not only to identify most promising science and technology (S&T) areas but also to understand how they can be realized in practice. Representatives from federal authorities, science and business were involved in the project to create future visions of technological directions; analyze grand challenges, weak signals and wild cards; and set research and development (R&D) priorities. Findings According to results of the study, Russia has a potential for biotech sector development, although the level of R&D in the majority of areas is lagging behind that in the USA and leading EU countries. However, there are several advanced applied research areas where efforts can be focused. Among them are high-performance genomics and post-genomics research platforms, systems and structural biology, microbial metabolic engineering, plant biotechnology and microbial strains and consortia for development of symbiotic plant–microbial communities. Originality/value Concentration of available resources of government and business on biotechnological sector development can help to find answers for challenges that Russia faces today or will face tomorrow. It will help to pick up on the current level of research activities, improve the quality of personnel training, make this area the engine of the economy and carry out the so-called new industrialization of the country, building a new, high-tech device industry.

scholarly journals Israel and Migration of High Skilled Workforce: Brain Drain and the Possibility of Replenishing the Market with High-Quality Human Capital

2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (4) ◽  
pp. 201-215
Author(s):  
D. A. Maryasis
Keyword(s):  
Brain Drain ◽  
Knowledge Economy ◽  
Supply And Demand ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
The United States ◽  
High Tech ◽  
Skilled Workers ◽  
Government Programs ◽  
Independent State ◽  
Highly Skilled

International labor migration is one of the most important elements of the modern global economy. Amid growing knowledge economy, migration of highly skilled specialists plays an increasingly important role. For Israel, as an immigrant society, migration issues have been of paramount importance since the early days of the independent state. However, in the first decades the discussion focused mainly around the influence of immigrants on the economic development of the country and identification of the most effective ways to adapt immigrants. At present, the Israeli economic model is built in such a way that the institutions of the knowledge economy are at its core, that requires a significant amount of labor with an appropriate level of skills. At the same time, today Israel witnesses emigration of such specialists, mainly to the United States. This paper is devoted to the analysis of the current situation. The article substantiates the relevance of the chosen topic not only for Israel, but also for other economically developed countries and gives a brief bibliographic review in the field. Next, the author analyzes the tendencies of high skilled work force immigration to Israel at the present stage through the analysis of the supply and demand in the country's labor market in the high-tech sector and assessment of the government programs created to attract foreign non-Jewish specialists to the country which appear to be not effective. The article also deals with the problems of emigration of high skilled workers from Israel. An overview of the magnitude of the phenomenon is given based on international comparisons; main reasons of the trend are identified and analyzed; government programs for the return of compatriots are assessed. It is argued that Israel should pursue a more effective policy to attract highly skilled non-Jewish immigrants into the country, which will fully realize the existing positive externalities and dampen the problem of brain drain.

scholarly journals Application of nonlinear dynamics methods for quantitative and qualitative evaluation of properties of 2D models of S-chaos

2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (91) ◽  
pp. 125-143
Author(s):  
Aleksei A. Gavrishev ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Nonlinear Dynamics ◽  
Lower Bound ◽  
Time Domain ◽  
Initial Conditions ◽  
Qualitative Evaluation ◽  
Recurrence Analysis ◽  
Combined Application ◽  
Student Version ◽  
The Time Domain ◽  
Property Characteristic

In this article, based on the mathematical, numerical and computer modeling carried out by the combined application of E&F Chaos, Past, Fractan, Visual Recurrence Analysis, Eviews Student Version Lite programs, some of the well-known 2D models of S-chaos are modeled, the data obtained are studied using nonlinear dynamics methods and the fact of their relation or non-relation to chaotic (quasi-chaotic) processes is established. As a result, it was found that the time diagrams obtained for the studied 2D models of S-chaos have a complex noise-like appearance and are continuous in the time domain. The resulting spectral diagrams have both a complex noise-like and regular appearance and are continuous in the spectral regions. The obtained values of BDS-statistics show that some of the time implementations can be attributed to chaotic (quasi-chaotic) processes. Also, the obtained values of BDS-statistics show that the studied 2D models of S-chaos have a property characteristic of classical chaotic (quasi-chaotic) processes: the slightest change in the initial conditions leads to the generation of a new set of signals. The obtained values of the lower bound of the KS-entropy show that the studied models also have the properties of chaotic (quasi-chaotic). Taking into account the conducted research and data from known works [1–5], it is possible to conclude that 2D models of S-chaos can relate to chaotic (quasi-chaotic) processes.

scholarly journals Flash-flood early warning using weather radar data: from nowcasting to forecasting

2013 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 1289-1331 ◽  
Author(s):  
K. Liechti ◽  
L. Panziera ◽  
U. Germann ◽  
M. Zappa
Keyword(s):  
Early Warning ◽  
Initial Conditions ◽  
Flash Flood ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Probabilistic Approach ◽  
Radar Data ◽  
Swiss Alps ◽  
Probabilistic Forecasting ◽  
Orographic Rainfall ◽  
Forecasting System

Abstract. This study explores the limits of radar-based forecasting for hydrological runoff prediction. Two novel probabilistic radar-based forecasting chains for flash-flood early warning are investigated in three catchments in the Southern Swiss Alps and set in relation to deterministic discharge forecast for the same catchments. The first probabilistic radar-based forecasting chain is driven by NORA (Nowcasting of Orographic Rainfall by means of Analogues), an analogue-based heuristic nowcasting system to predict orographic rainfall for the following eight hours. The second probabilistic forecasting system evaluated is REAL-C2, where the numerical weather prediction COSMO-2 is initialized with 25 different initial conditions derived from a four-day nowcast with the radar ensemble REAL. Additionally, three deterministic forecasting chains were analysed. The performance of these five flash-flood forecasting systems was analysed for 1389 h between June 2007 and December 2010 for which NORA forecasts were issued, due to the presence of orographic forcing. We found a clear preference for the probabilistic approach. Discharge forecasts perform better when forced by NORA rather than by a persistent radar QPE for lead times up to eight hours and for all discharge thresholds analysed. The best results were, however, obtained with the REAL-C2 forecasting chain, which was also remarkably skilful even with the highest thresholds. However, for regions where REAL cannot be produced, NORA might be an option for forecasting events triggered by orographic precipitation.

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