Measuring the Impact of Oil Revenues on the Level of Public Expenditures for the Iraqi Economy for the Period from (2004-2019)
Oil-producing countries depend on oil revenues mainly to finance their public budgets and thus influence Directly on the public spending process and according to economic logic, the financial abundance leads to an increase in public spending. And that's what A detailed event in the Iraqi economy during the years of explosive budgets for the years 2012 and 2013 due to high prices Oil has reached unprecedented levels. The process of public spending did not focus on the investment side, which would The economy and the various sectors developed, as they focused only on recreational and consumer activities, which led to the loss of an opportunity Financial abundance and the lack of impediment to the advancement of the Iraqi economy. The research focuses on the variables of oil revenues and public spending and the close relationship that exists between them. The quarterly data was taken, which is more accurate than the annual data, and the sample consisted of 66. Watching from 2004 to 2019. The series was subjected to silence tests for the two mentioned variables, and it was found that they did not They settle at the level and are stabilized when taking the first difference and after doing the graph test and proceeding to complete the rest the exams . An autoregressive ARDL method was selected, and the appropriate model was selected. For each of the oil revenues and public spending, and regarding the integration parameter, it was negative and significant, as well as the limits test that He indicated the possibility of long-term interpretation that the coefficients of the variables were significant, as the percentages of significance ranged between 1%, 5%, and . 10% of the sequence. The model was subjected to a dimensional test, which confirmed the integrity of the model from standard problems and the statistical as a test of autocorrelation of the residuals and the result was not significant. As well as the test for instability of homogeneity of variance, which is The other is immaterial.