Model and algorithm for mitigation the consequences of fires through an insurance system

2020 ◽  
Vol 90 ◽  
pp. 85-101
Author(s):  
S. V. Sokolov ◽  
◽  
V. M. Dashko ◽  
Keyword(s):  
System Analysis ◽  
Housing Stock ◽  
Fire Risk ◽  
Safety Requirements ◽  
Insurance System ◽  
Risk Of Death ◽  
Fire Insurance ◽  
Technical And Economic Analysis ◽  
Study Results ◽  
Goals And Objectives

Introduction. Early notification of a fire by means of fire automation can save human lives and significantly reduce material damage in case of fires. One of the ways to provide housing stock fund with fire automation is insurance. The relevance of the research is to develop a model for reducing fire risks in housing through the insurance system in the Russian Federation. Goals and objectives. The purpose of the article is to create a model for managing fire risks in housing through the domestic insurance system. This goal allows us to solve the problem of reducing fire risks in the housing stock. Methods. They include methods of system analysis, mathematical statistics, technical and economic analysis, and mathematical modeling. The research was based on domestic and foreign literature, legal and regulatory sources, statistical materials and results of research works on the subject of the study. Results and discussion. Solutions to the model of fire risk management in housing through the domestic insurance system are found. Conclusion. The results of solving the problem of reducing the risk of death in fires in the residential sector through the insurance system are presented. The decision is based on the economic motivation of both insurers and policyholders. An algorithm and model for reducing fire risks through the insurance system are proposed that allow achieving voluntary, economically motivated compliance with fire safety requirements. Key words: fires, loss of life in fires, fire risks, fire automation, fire insurance.

Support for decision-making on the need to replace fire trucks in fire and rescue units

2021 ◽  
Vol 92 ◽  
pp. 106-115
Author(s):  
V. A. Aristarkhov ◽  
◽  
A. V. Rozhkov ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Modeling ◽  
Service Life ◽  
System Analysis ◽  
Block Diagram ◽  
Operating Time ◽  
Technical Condition ◽  
Technical And Economic Analysis ◽  
Study Results ◽  
In Fire ◽  
Goals And Objectives

Introduction. A study of the fleet of fire trucks was conducted. The absence of a direct dependence of the operating time of a fire truck on its service life is confirmed on the basis of the analysis. A matrix of conditions for making a decision on the need to replace a fire truck is formed, taking into account the standard purpose of the fire truck, its service life, the actual technical condition described by the corresponding category of technical condition, as well as the date of termination of its release. A criterion for the need to replace a fire truck has been developed, as well as an algorithm for making a decision on the need to replace a fire truck in conditions of limited funding. Goals and objectives. The purpose of the article is to develop an algorithm for making a decision about the need to replace a fire truck. This goal allows us to solve the problem of justifying the need to replace the sample in the course of ensuring a given level of readiness of fire and rescue units. Methods. Methods of mathematical statistics, the theory of the importance of criteria, technical and economic analysis, mathematical modeling and system analysis were used to achieve the goal and solve the problems of the study. Results and discussion. A criterion for the need to replace a fire truck is developed, on the basis of which a block diagram of the algorithm for making a decision on the need to replace a sample is formed. Conclusion. The results obtained in the course of the work can be used in the development of programs (plans) for re-equipping fire and rescue units with modern fire trucks. Keywords: the criterion of the need for replacement, fire trucks, category by technical condition, service life

scholarly journals VILNIUS ADVANCED-SURFACE MOVEMENT GUIDANCE AND CONTROL SYSTEM (A-SMGCS) SAFETY OBJECTIVES / VILNIAUS AERODROMO AUTOMATIZUOTOS ANTŽEMINIO EISMO STEBĖJIMO IR KONTROLĖS SISTEMOS SAUGOS TIKSLŲ ANALIZĖ

Aviation ◽  
2012 ◽  
Vol 16 (4) ◽  
pp. 130-135
Author(s):  
Vaidotas Kondroška ◽  
Jonas Stankūnas
Keyword(s):  
Control System ◽  
System Analysis ◽  
Flight Safety ◽  
Frequency Of Occurrence ◽  
Surface Movement ◽  
Safety Requirements ◽  
Methods Of Determination ◽  
Guidance And Control ◽  
System A ◽  
And Control

This work reviews the innovative and progressive methods of determination and analysis of safety objectives using Vilnius A-SMGCS example. The aim of the analysis is to determine how failures in this system could affect flight safety in Vilnius aerodrome. Identified safety objectives will limit the frequency of occurrence of hazards enough for the associated risk to be acceptable, and will ensure that appropriate mitigation means are reflected subsequently as Safety Requirements for the system. Analysis reflects aspects of A-SMGCS Safety objectives, which should be taken into consideration. Santrauka Darbe apžvelgiami progresyvūs saugos tikslų analizės metodai pagal Vilniaus aerodromo automatizuotos antžeminio eismo stebėjimo ir kontrolės sistemos veiklos pavyzdį. Analizuojama, kaip šios sistemos sutrikimai gali paveikti skrydžių saugą Vilniaus aerodrome. Remiantis galimų pavojų skrydžių saugai analize, tyrime nustatyti saugos tikslai, pagal kuriuos vėliau bus numatomos riziką mažinančios priemonės (galimų pavojų neutralizavimui ar kylančios rizikos sumažinimui iki priimtino lygio). Straipsnyje pateikiami veiksniai, kuriuos reikėtų įvertinti nustatant aerodromo automatizuotos antžeminio eismo stebėjimo ir kontrolės sistemos saugos tikslus.

The Human Reliability Analysis in Fire PSA Using Spar-H Method

2013 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yao Wang
Keyword(s):  
Reliability Analysis ◽  
Nuclear Power ◽  
Significant Contribution ◽  
Fire Risk ◽  
Nuclear Industry ◽  
Total Risk ◽  
Human Reliability ◽  
Human Reliability Analysis ◽  
Study Results ◽  
In Fire

According to existing research results, fire risk makes a significant contribution to the total risk of a nuclear power plant (NPP). So fire probabilistic safety analysis (PSA) for NPPs is becoming more and more important in recent years. How to perform human reliability analysis (HRA) which is an essential part of PSA is therefore being paid more and more attention in fire PSA. This paper describes the characteristics and special considerations of HRA in fire PSA, and demonstrates in fire PSA how to use SPAR-H method which is so-called an advanced second-generation HRA method and is being widely used in PSA for Chinese NPPs. The study results can be a reference for other HRA analysts to use SPAR-H method in fire PSA models or other PSA models in Chinese NPPs or the world-wide nuclear industry.

Specificity of using messengers by schoolchildren and students in mobile learning

Ergodesign ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 0 (3) ◽  
pp. 197-204
Author(s):  
Pavel Paderno ◽  
Elizaveta Stroeva
Keyword(s):  
High School ◽  
High School Students ◽  
Mobile Applications ◽  
Online Survey ◽  
Online Communication ◽  
School Students ◽  
Study Results ◽  
The Russian Federation ◽  
Goals And Objectives ◽  
Positive Effect

The aim of the work is to identify the functionality required by mobile messengers for convenient online communication between pupils and high school students. To achieve this aim, a survey of 116 questions was developed, which adjusted to the respondent’s answers and reduced its volume in order to avoid the respondents’ fatigue and to decrease the time spent on completing the survey. An online survey of students aged 16 to 24 living in different cities of the Russian Federation was carried out. Then the information obtained was processed, and possible relations between the analysis results were found. Based on the study results, recommendations were formed to improve messengers according to the students- users’ goals and objectives. Now messengers are created mainly for the widespread use. There are already more than a hundred of them, and therefore products need to stand out in order to be competitive. One of the ways to excel is to be narrowly focused, tailored to a specific audience. Since the functionality of the messenger directly affects its popularity, the introduction and refinement of the necessary functions will have a positive effect on the number of users. The analysis shows that developers of instant messengers can improve the efficiency of using messengers by the students and, possibly, reduce the number of installed mobile applications on their devices, and, consequently, decrease the number of competitors for their target audience.

scholarly journals FORECASTING OF DAMAGES FROM NATURAL HAZARDS FOR THE “NORTHERN CAUCASUS RESORTS” TOURIST CLUSTER

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 349-356
Author(s):  
Vyacheslav BABURIN ◽  
◽  
Svetlana BADINA ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Natural Hazards ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Northern Caucasus ◽  
Individual Risk ◽  
Economic Damage ◽  
North Caucasus ◽  
Limit Values ◽  
Risk Of Death ◽  
The North ◽  
Study Results

The article proposes a methodological approach to potential damage from natural hazards forecasting in case of large-scale investment projects realization in ski tourism planning, as well as to assessing changes in the vulnerability of the territory in which these projects will be implemented. The method was verified on the data of the “Northern Caucasus Resorts” tourist cluster. The study purpose is the creation and verification of a methodology for socio-economic damage predicting in limit values and vulnerability changing in the regions of the “North Caucasus Resorts” tourist cluster objects localization for the long term. Research methods – statistical (a structural approach based on the identification of common structural patterns of several sets). The lack of statistical information on significant parameters for forecasting determine necessitates of using the various logically non-contradictory revaluations based on the identified structural similarities for the calculation of their values within the planning horizon. The study results and main conclusions – in case of the “North Caucasus Resorts” tourist cluster creation the number of people potentially located in avalanche and mudflow danger areas will significantly increase in all of its facilities localization municipalities, which indicate an increase in the individual risk of death level for this territory. The present population in the ski season in some of the most remote and underdeveloped areas can increase up to 30 times. The increment in the value of the fixed assets for the municipalities under consideration will be from two to 90 times, potential damages in limit values will reach tens of billions rubles.

A Successful City-Wide Smoke Detector Giveaway Program

PEDIATRICS ◽  
1985 ◽  
Vol 75 (1) ◽  
pp. 14-18 ◽  
Author(s):  
Richard L. Gorman ◽  
Evan Charney ◽  
Neil A. Holtzman ◽  
Kenneth B. Roberts
Keyword(s):  
High Risk ◽  
Fire Risk ◽  
Smoke Detector ◽  
High Risk Population ◽  
Inexpensive Method ◽  
Baltimore City ◽  
Risk Of Death ◽  
Smoke Detectors ◽  
Almost All ◽  
House Fires

Each year, 5,000 Americans die and 300,000 are hospitalized as a result of 2.8 million residential fires. Almost all house fires allow time for safe exit if an early warning is given. Smoke detectors are an effective, reliable, and inexpensive method of providing such warning. After an upsurge of deaths related to fires in 1982, Baltimore City gave away 3,720 smoke detectors to households that requested them. This study addressed two questions: (1) Did the households that received the smoke detectors install them? (2) Was the population reached by this giveaway program a population at high risk from fire? A survey of 231 randomly selected households among those requesting smoke detectors was conducted 8 to 10 months after the giveaway program. At that time, smoke detectors were installed in 92% (212/231) of the homes and 88% (187/212) of the installed smoke detectors were operational. Households requesting smoke detectors were in census tracts at higher risk from fire. The correlation coefficient between the rate of requesting a smoke detector and the risk of death or injury related to fires was r = .90, P < .001. The 231 surveyed households had more personal fire risk factors than the general population. The success of this smoke detector giveaway program is notable in that it required the active participation of a high-risk population.

Residential fire risk assessment and management

2021 ◽  
Vol 92 ◽  
pp. 128-141
Author(s):  
A. A. Tanygina ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Russian Federation ◽  
System Analysis ◽  
Fire Hazard ◽  
Fire Risk ◽  
Economic Indicator ◽  
Federal State ◽  
Residential Sector ◽  
The Russian Federation ◽  
Hazard Levels

Introduction. The article analyzes statistical data for the period of 2006-2018 and presents an assessment of fire hazard levels in residential sectors of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation, which were determined on the basis of an integral socio-economic indicator of fire risk. It also considers the problems of assessing fire hazard in the residential sector as in a complex social and economic systems. The purpose of the study is to determine the levels of fire hazard and build a model for managing fire risks in residential sectors of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation. Research methods. To solve the research problems, the methods of system analysis, statistical analysis, mathematical statistics, etc. were used. Research results. A number of statistical dependencies of the fire situation in the Russian Federation have been analyzed and obtained. The indicators with the most fire hazardous level in the residential sectors of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation were determined by calculation. A block diagram of a model for managing fire risks in the residential sector using the integral socio-economic indicator of fire risk (ISEPPR) is built. Conclusion. The values of the fire hazard levels obtained in the work and the model of fire risk management in residential sectors of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation make it possible to improve management decisions in the field of supervisory activities and preventive work of the Federal State Fire Supervision Authorities. Keywords: residential sector, integral socio-economic indicator of fire risk, risk assessment, level of fire hazard

Closed Cycle Gas Turbines: An ECAS Update — Part 1

1979 ◽  
Author(s):  
H. C. Daudet ◽  
C. A. Kinney
Keyword(s):  
Heat Exchanger ◽  
Gas Turbine ◽  
Gas Turbines ◽  
Power Plants ◽  
System Analysis ◽  
Public Utility ◽  
Department Of Energy ◽  
Closed Cycle ◽  
Study Program ◽  
Study Results

This paper presents a discussion of the significant results of a study program conducted for the Department of Energy to evaluate the potential for closed cycle gas turbines and the associated combustion heater systems for use in coal fired public utility power plants. Two specific problem areas were addressed: (a) the identification and analysis of system concepts which offer high overall plant efficiency consistent with low cost of electricity (COE) from coal-pile-to-bus-bar, and (b) the identification and conceptual design of combustor/heat exchanger concepts compatible for use as the cycle gas primary heater for those plant systems. The study guidelines were based directly upon the ground rules established for the ECAS studies to facilitate comparison of study results. Included is a discussion of a unique computer model approach to accomplish the system analysis and parametric studies performed to evaluate entire closed cycle gas turbine utility power plants with and without Rankine bottoming cycles. Both atmospheric fluidized bed and radiant/convective combustor /heat exchanger systems were addressed. Each incorporated metallic or ceramic heat exchanger technology. The work culminated in conceptual designs of complete coal fired, closed cycle gas turbine power plants. Critical component technology assessment and cost and performance estimates for the plants are also discussed.

scholarly journals Fire Risk Assessment Models Using Statistical Machine Learning and Optimized Risk Indexing

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (12) ◽  
pp. 4199
Author(s):  
Myoung-Young Choi ◽  
Sunghae Jun
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Logistic Regression ◽  
Prediction Model ◽  
Fire Risk ◽  
Fire Occurrence ◽  
Statistical Machine Learning ◽  
Fire Insurance ◽  
Comparison Results ◽  
Fire Risk Assessment

It is very difficult for us to accurately predict occurrence of a fire. But, this is very important to protect human life and property. So, we study fire hazard prediction and evaluation methods to cope with fire risks. In this paper, we propose three models based on statistical machine learning and optimized risk indexing for fire risk assessment. We build logistic regression, deep neural networks (DNN) and fire risk indexing models, and verify performances between proposed and traditional models using real investigated data related to fire occurrence in Korea. In general, fire prediction models currently in use do not provide satisfactory levels of accuracy. The reason for this result is that the factors affecting fire occurrence are very diverse and frequency of fire occurrence is very sparse. To improve accuracy of fire occurrence, we first build logistic regression and DNN models. In addition, we construct a fire risk indexing model for a more improved model of fire prediction. To illustrate comparison results between our research models and current fire prediction model, we use real fire data investigated in Korea between 2011 to 2017. From the experimental results of this paper, we can confirm that accuracy of prediction by the proposed method is superior to the existing fire occurrence prediction model. Therefore, we expect the proposed model to contribute to evaluating the possibility of fire risk in buildings and factories in the field of fire insurance and to calculate the fire insurance premium.

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