ANALYSIS OF APPROACHES FOR MODELING AND FORECASTING THE SOCIO-ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT OF THE REGION

2021 ◽  
Vol 4 (6) ◽  
pp. 12-17
Author(s):  
Gafur Namazov ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Neural Networks ◽  
Economic Development ◽  
Economic System ◽  
System Modeling ◽  
Modeling And Forecasting ◽  
Socio Economic Development

The article analyzes the main approaches to modeling and forecasting the development of the socio-economic system (SES) of the region based on a neural network. The features of using the approaches and the advantages, disadvantages and limitations of their application are also described in detail.Keywords:socio-economic development of the region, socio-economic system, modeling, forecasting, neural networks

SYSTEMIC CAUSES OF THE APPEARANCE OF “COBRA EFFECT” IN THE MANAGEMENT OF SOCIO-ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT

2019 ◽  
Vol 86 (3) ◽  
pp. 51-61
Author(s):  
M. S. Mokiy ◽  
E. K. Borzenko
Keyword(s):  
Economic Development ◽  
Economic System ◽  
Gross National Product ◽  
The Family ◽  
Social And Economic Development ◽  
Socio Economic Development ◽  
Energy Consuming ◽  
The Right ◽  
Goals And Objectives ◽  
Least Energy

The article on the basis of extrapolation of system laws of management of social and economic development illustrates the system reason of the Cobra effect, that is, a situation where, despite the rather attractive goals that managers formulate, the result of the activities of subordinates is opposite to what was intended. The main problem of management is the development of a system of indicators, in which, working on the indicator, employees would change the state in the right direction. The reason for the Cobra effect is the manifestation of systemic patterns of socio-economic development. The main system regularity is the desire of the system for stability and self-preservation. This state of the system is achieved using the least energy-consuming way. It is shown that any worker, realizing system regularities, aspires to stability and self-preservation. Therefore, the employee is always forced to work for achieving the indicator. The article analyzes the manifestation of these laws at the level of enterprises and state. When managers understand these patterns explicitly or covertly, changes in the economic system are moving in the right direction. It is shown that the existing system of target indicators used as indicators to assess the effectiveness of management does not meet the goals and objectives of socio-economic development. At the meso- and macrolevel, absolute, volumetric indicators, such as gross national product and others, reduce the range of benefits to the population. The article defines the vector of change in the system of indicators for assessing the effectiveness of management at the regional and state levels, based on the fact that the key element is the family. At the same time, the targets should be indicators to assess the availability of benefits for households.

scholarly journals System for Forecasting COVID-19 Cases Using Time-Series and Neural Networks Models

2021 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 46
Author(s):  
Mostafa Abotaleb ◽  
Tatiana Makarovskikh
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Neural Networks ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Models ◽  
Third Wave ◽  
The Third ◽  
Modeling And Forecasting ◽  
Auto Regressive ◽  
The Russian Federation ◽  
R Programming

COVID-19 is one of the biggest challenges that countries face at the present time, as infections and deaths change daily and because this pandemic has a dynamic spread. Our paper considers two tasks. The first one is to develop a system for modeling COVID-19 based on time-series models due to their accuracy in forecasting COVID-19 cases. We developed an “Epidemic. TA” system using R programming for modeling and forecasting COVID-19 cases. This system contains linear (ARIMA and Holt’s model) and non-linear (BATS, TBATS, and SIR) time-series models and neural network auto-regressive models (NNAR), which allows us to obtain the most accurate forecasts of infections, deaths, and vaccination cases. The second task is the implementation of our system to forecast the risk of the third wave of infections in the Russian Federation.

HUMAN CAPITAL IN THE STRUCTURE OF THE SOCIO-ECONOMIC POTENTIAL OF THE REGION

2021 ◽  
Vol 1 (181) ◽  
pp. 94-101
Author(s):  
O.V. Berezhnaya ◽  
◽  
V.N. Glaz ◽  
E.G. Strukova ◽  
A.H. Goshokov ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Human Capital ◽  
Economic Development ◽  
Human Resources ◽  
Economic System ◽  
Modern Society ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
Economic Potential ◽  
Socio Economic Development ◽  
Productive Factor ◽  
Regional Authorities

The article considers approaches to determining the importance of human capital for the socio-economic development of the territories of the Russian Federation, as well as determining its place in the structure of the territorial socio-economic potential. The article shows that human capital is the basis for the formation of the regional economic system and serves as the basis for the implementation of the regional socio-economic potential. The authors define human capital as a key socio-economic and productive factor in the development of not only the modern economy, but also modern society. Regional human capital is defined as a set of human resources with their knowledge, abilities, skills, etc., formed both within the framework of individual human capital and within the framework of corporate human capital, localized on the territory of the region and able to provide reproduction processes within the regional socio-economic system. The article shows that the regional human capital in the structure of the socio-economic potential of the region has both quantitative (population size, including population migration; the gender and age composition of the population of the region, etc.), and the quality characteristics (the level of education and qualifications of the population of the region, the effectiveness of the use of human capital, etc.), reflect the importance of human capital in the state’s program documents. The article proposes the author’s vision of human capital as a resource for the socio-economic development of the region and proves that from the point of view of the realization of the socioeconomic potential of the region, the human resources of a particular region should be considered by regional authorities and management not only as a key resource that ensures the socio-economic development of the region, but also as a resource that imposes certain requirements necessary for the direct realization of human capital (potential).

Analyzing the "Strategy of Socio-Economic Development of the Chuvash Republic until 2035" content

2021 ◽  
Vol 20 (2) ◽  
pp. 299-324
Author(s):  
Valerii V. SMIRNOV
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Cluster Analysis ◽  
Economic Development ◽  
Growth Rates ◽  
Systems Approach ◽  
Cultural Institutions ◽  
Socio Economic Development ◽  
Chuvash Republic ◽  
Number Of Visits ◽  
And Cluster Analysis

Subject. The article addresses a strategy for socio-economic development of the region. Objectives. The purpose is to define contradictions and opportunities to achieve the expected results of the "Strategy of Socio-economic Development of the Chuvash Republic until 2035". Methods. The study rests on the systems approach, using the methods of statistical, neural network, and cluster analysis. Results. The statistical analysis of trends in expected outcomes of the Strategy implementation enabled to build a median hierarchy of their growth rates, where the indicator of an increase in the number of visits to cultural institutions is a priority in setting the goals for the region’s development. The neural network analysis demonstrates the importance of the growth rate of real accrued wages of employees of organizations and the insignificant value of the increase in the number of visits to cultural institutions for effective achievement of all objectives of the Strategy. The cluster analysis shows the importance of growth rates of indicators of the proportion of organizations engaged in technological innovations, and the proportion of shipped innovative products. The analysis of growth rates of GRP and expenditures of the consolidated budget of the Chuvash Republic reveals a decrease in the cyclical lag of the first dynamic pattern from the second one. Conclusions. For the Chuvash Republic, a strategic priority is to overcome the GRP growth limit through the innovative development of backbone areas of economic activity.

INCREASING THE COMPETITIVENESS OF THE NATIONAL ECONOMY THROUGH THE CREATION OF AN INNOVATION SYSTEM

2021 ◽  
Vol 3 (10) ◽  
pp. 76-82
Author(s):  
A. L. Poltarykhin ◽  
◽  
M. A. Ponomarev ◽  
S. V. Nikolaev ◽  
◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Development ◽  
Economic System ◽  
National Economy ◽  
Innovation System ◽  
Innovative Development ◽  
National Economic ◽  
Socio Economic Development ◽  
Main Factors ◽  
The Creation

The article discusses increasing the competitiveness of the national economy based on the creation of an innovation system. One of the main factors in increasing competitiveness is the innovative development of economic entities. The lag in innovative development prevents the emergence of technological industries within the country and restrains the socio-economic development of the national economic system.

scholarly journals Modeling and Forecasting of Socio-Economic Development of the Region

2018 ◽  
pp. 404-410
Keyword(s):  
Economic Development ◽  
Pair Correlation ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
Correlation Coefficients ◽  
Analysis Data ◽  
Annual Number ◽  
Modeling And Forecasting ◽  
Socio Economic Development ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
Average Annual Number

The article is devoted to the modeling and forecasting of socio-economic development of the region. The dependence of GRP per capita of the Belgorod region on the average annual number of employed in the economy, the consolidated budget revenues, the volume of innovative works and services, the consumer price index, the industrial production index, the balanced financial result, exports was established. The analysis of the matrix of pair correlation coefficients of the selected indicators allowed to choose as the most significant explanatory variables the consolidated budget revenues and the average annual number of employees in the economy. The models of socio-economic development of the region were built. The quality of the models was evaluated. It was revealed that the most accurate is the power regression model. The forecast of further changes in GRP per capita was built on the basis of the retrospective analysis data. The method of extrapolation based on the construction of trend models for each explanatory variable was used to carry out the forecast.

scholarly journals ESSENCE AND CHARACTERISTIC OF INSTITUTIONAL TRANSFORMATIONS AND INSTITUTIONAL CHANGES

2017 ◽  
Vol 21 (5) ◽  
pp. 107-113
Author(s):  
L. V. Borovskaya
Keyword(s):  
Economic Development ◽  
Economic System ◽  
Bifurcation Point ◽  
National Economy ◽  
Institutional Environment ◽  
Institutional Changes ◽  
Social And Economic Development ◽  
Socio Economic Development ◽  
The Difference ◽  
The Republic

The structure of the national model of social and economic development is considered in the composition of types and subtypes of the economic system, taking into account the types of macroeconomic policy and the sector of the national economy, the nature of institutional transformations and institutional changes in the national economy is described, types of modern transformations or choice of alternative development options are identified. The difference between institutional changes and institutional transformations is revealed, namely institutional transformations and institutional changes are associated with the replacement of institutions, but it is the result of the former that the institutions that predetermine the functioning of the main components (predetermining attributes) of the economic system are replaced. It has been established that as a result of institutional transformations, changes take place in the system-forming institutions that predetermine the nature and characteristics of social and economic development. The transformations that took place or are potentially possible are determined in the context of the problem of managing the socio-economic development of the Republic of Crimea. It is determined that in the case of institutional transformations, there is necessarily a specific bifurcation point, characterized by the occurrence of a certain event or group of events, and is the starting platform for a specific institutional transformation. A scheme of various variants (scenarios) of the passage of the bifurcation point in the process of development of the national economy under the influence of external and internal factors is constructed, and changes in the states of development of the national economy during the passage of the bifurcation point are determined. The internal critical instability of the current state of development of the national economy has been studied. It is determined that institutional changes without the flow of institutional transformations represent a combination of the replacement of institutions in certain areas or spheres of socio-economic development. At the same time, the bifurcation point is absolutely not an obligatory condition, as a result of which institutional changes can take place constantly, thus constantly modernizing the institutional environment, taking into account new agreements, decision-making features and many other factors.

Real-Time Neural Network Based Camera Localization and its Extension to Mobile Robot Control

1997 ◽  
Vol 08 (03) ◽  
pp. 279-293 ◽  
Author(s):  
Doo-Hyun Choi ◽  
Se-Young Oh
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Neural Networks ◽  
Mobile Robot ◽  
Real Time ◽  
Robot Control ◽  
Imaging System ◽  
System Modeling ◽  
Hybrid Approach ◽  
Camera Localization ◽  
Mobile Robot Control

The feasibility of using neural networks for camera localization and mobile robot control is investigated here. This approach has the advantages of eliminating the laborious and error-prone process of imaging system modeling and calibration procedures. Basically, two different approaches of using neural networks are introduced of which one is a hybrid approach combining neural networks and the pinhole-based analytic solution while the other is purely neural network based. These techniques have been tested and compared through both simulation and real-time experiments and are shown to yield more precise localization than analytic approaches. Furthermore, this neural localization method is also shown to be directly applicable to the navigation control of an experimental mobile robot along the hallway purely guided by a dark wall strip. It also facilitates multi-sensor fusion through the use of multiple sensors of different types for control due to the network's capability of learning without models.

scholarly journals Application of Kohonen networks for clustering of the Zachodniopomorskie Voivodeship districts in terms of the level of socio-economic development

2020 ◽  
Vol 64 (9) ◽  
pp. 100-118
Author(s):  
Joanna Perzyńska
Keyword(s):  
Neural Networks ◽  
Cluster Analysis ◽  
Economic Development ◽  
Statistical Data ◽  
Multidimensional Analysis ◽  
Diagnostic Features ◽  
Self Organizing Maps ◽  
Socio Economic Development ◽  
Kohonen Networks ◽  
Theoretical Considerations

The author presents the possibilities of using artificial neural networks in a multidimensional analysis – cluster analysis. The empirical example using districts of the Zachodniopomorskie (West Pomeranian) Voivodeship is the illustration of theoretical considerations. The study used statistical data from many areas related to socio-economic development: demography, labour market, natural environment, recreation, culture, social and technical infrastructure, and the economy. The aim of the study was to divide the voivodeship into disjointed typological groups of districts using Kohonen networks (Self-Organizing Maps). Several networks differing in structure of the output layer were constructed and trained. Selected diagnostic features of socio-economic development of districts were their input values. Using verified Kohonen networks, various sets of groups of the researched objects were created, and confirmed them are a useful tool for identifying clusters of districts similar to each other in terms of the level of socio-economic development.

scholarly journals Imitation of the impact of external factors in the modeling of innovation-oriented regional socio-economic systems

2020 ◽  
Vol 210 ◽  
pp. 13035
Author(s):  
Tatyana Ladykova ◽  
Inessa Vasilieva
Keyword(s):  
Economic Development ◽  
Economic System ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Optimal Strategies ◽  
External Factors ◽  
Regional Innovation ◽  
Stage Of Development ◽  
Regional Strategies ◽  
Socio Economic Development ◽  
The Impact

The regions of the Russian Federation function and develop in conditions of instability and uncertainty of the external strategic environment. Therefore, each region tries to develop optimal strategies for its innovation oriented development on the principles of efficiency and minimizing uncertainty (risk). At the same time, it is important not just to form a strategic set of alternatives for the development of the region, but it is important at every moment to know at what stage of development the region is, how close it is to the strategic goal of its development. Analysis of studies on strategic planning and management, shows the lack of a single accepted methodology for assessing the effectiveness of the implementation of regional strategies and general approaches to formation of system of indicators of its assessment. Nevertheless, the majority of researchers agree that it is important to assess not whether the implementation of the developed strategy is carried out correctly or not, but it is important to assess how close the implementation of the innovation oriented strategy is to the goals set for the region. Indicative planning is an important tool for regulating the processes of socio-economic development at the regional level. In modern conditions, the world economy is experiencing an increase in the level of negative impact of various external factors and major challenges to economic actors, including regions. The article substantiates the conceptual scheme of the imitation model of the regional socio-economic system, which takes into account not only the subjects and objects of management, but also the impact of the external environment. A method of increasing the realism of imitation models of the regional innovation oriented socio-economic system is proposed – the use of a random choice of one of the options for adaptation to a given external factor. Within the framework of this model, it is proposed to allocate the following macro-regional blocks (objects of regional management): income, labor, business, ecology, society, prospects, Finance. In this case, the control regulation within the framework of the proposed model is carried out on the basis of an indicative plan, which sets goals, objectives and indicators of regional innovation oriented socio-economic development.

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