scholarly journals Analisis Daya Saing Ekspor Lada Juga Pengaruhnya Bagi Cadangan Devisa di 5 negara Pengekspor Utama Lada (Studi Kasus Indonesia, Malaysia, Vietnam, Brazil dan India)

2021 ◽  
Vol 3 (3) ◽  
pp. 23
Author(s):  
Nuriman Ramadhani ◽  
Murtala Murtala ◽  
Fanny Nailufar ◽  
Yurina Yurina
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Comparative Advantage ◽  
Analysis Model ◽  
Foreign Exchange Reserves ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Export Competitiveness ◽  
Index Value

This study aims to analyze the level of export competitiveness of pepper and its effect on foreign exchange reserves in the 5 main exporting countries of pepper (a case study in Indonesia, Malaysia, Vietnam, Brazil, and India). The analysis model used is Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA) and the Panel Autoregressive Distributed Lag (PARDL) method. The results of the analysis in this study with the RCA index show that Vietnam is the largest exporter of pepper with an RCA index value of 1.2631, followed by Brazil with an RCA value of 1.136. For countries, Indonesia, Malaysia, and India still below average competitiveness and still have to increase their pepper exports. Furthermore, the analysis using PARDL shows that in the long term, the pepper export has a positive and significant effect on foreign exchange reserves with probability (0.000 <0.05), but the pepper export has no positive and insignificant effect on foreign exchange reserves with the probability of 0.3577> 0.05).

scholarly journals Analisis Hubungan Ekspor, Pembayaran Hutang Luar Negeri Dan Nilai Tukar Terhadap Cadangan Devisa Indonesia

2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 10
Author(s):  
Fakhrurrazi Fakhrurrazi ◽  
Hijri Juliansyah
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Foreign Debt ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Foreign Exchange Reserves ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Debt Payment

This study aims to determine the relationship between exports, foreign debt payments, and the exchange rates on the foreign exchange reserves of Indonesia in 1988-2019. This study uses secondary data for 31 years and uses the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) analysis method to analyze the data. The results of this study indicate that all variables have no relationship between variables, only on the foreign exchange reserves to exports. In short-term testing, the export does not have a significant effect on foreign exchange reserves, and the foreign debt payment and the exchange rate have a significant effect on foreign exchange reserves. However, in the long run, all variables do not have a significant effect on foreign exchange reserves.Keywords:Exports, Foreign Debt Payment, Exchange Rates, Foreign Exchange                    Reserves, ARDL

scholarly journals Pengaruh penanaman modal dalam negeri (PMDN), penanaman modal asing (PMA), ekspor dan impor terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi Provinsi Jambi

2020 ◽  
Vol 15 (2) ◽  
pp. 267-276
Author(s):  
Dian Setia Ningsih ◽  
Haryadi Haryadi ◽  
Siti Hodijah
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Analysis Model ◽  
Economic Activities ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Poverty And Inequality ◽  
Negative Effect ◽  
The Government ◽  
Positive Effect

This study aims to analyze the development of PMDN, PMA, Exports, Imports, and Economic Growth in Jambi province and to analyze the influence of PMDN, PMA, Exports, and Imports on economic growth in Jambi province. The analysis model used is the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL). The results showed that in the short term PMDN had a significant negative effect on economic growth. PMA has a positive and significant effect on economic growth. Exports have a significant positive effect on economic growth. In the long term, PMDN has a positive and significant effect on economic growth. PMA has a negative and significant effect on economic growth. The export variable has a positive and significant effect on economic growth. And imports have a positive but insignificant effect on economic growth. It is hoped that economic growth will continue to increase from year to year, so the government must play an important role in increasing economic activities that have existing potentials so that the people's income is high which also reduces poverty and inequality that occurs.

scholarly journals Analysis of the Effect of Macro Economic Indicators and Dow Jones Index on IDX Composite in Indonesia Stock Exchange

2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (9) ◽  
pp. 294-310
Author(s):  
Isra Rafika Sihombing ◽  
Irsad . ◽  
Ahmad Albar Tanjung
Keyword(s):  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Analysis Model ◽  
Jones Index ◽  
Insignificant Effect ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Ardl Approach ◽  
Macroeconomic Effect

Study aims to analyze the macroeconomic effect of the Dow Jones index on IDX Composite on the Indonesia Stock Exchange. The variables used in the macro economy are inflation, kurs, SBI rate, FED rate. Another variable is the Dow Jones index. This study uses quarterly secondary data from 2010 to 2020. The data analysis model uses the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach. The results of the ARDL model analysis show that in the long term inflation, kurs, and FED rate has a negative and insignificant effect on the IDX Composite, SBI rate variable has a positive and not significant effect on the IDX Composite, the Dow Jones index variable has a positive and no significant effect on the IDX Composite significant to the IDX Composite. In the short term, inflation has a negative and insignificant effect on the IDX Composite, kurs has a negative and significant effect on the IDX Composite, SBI rate has a positive and insignificant effect on the IDX Composite, FED rate and the Dow Jones index have a positive and significant effect on the IDX Composite. Keywords: IDX Composite, Inflation, Kurs, SBI Rate, FED Rate, Dow Jones index.

Impact of Environmental Tax on Comparative Advantage of Food and Food Products: A Study of G20 Countries in Light of Environmentally Sensitive Goods

2021 ◽  
pp. 001946622110352
Author(s):  
Alisha Mahajan ◽  
Kakali Majumdar
Keyword(s):  
Comparative Advantage ◽  
Food Products ◽  
Environmental Taxes ◽  
Environmental Tax ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Environmentally Sensitive ◽  
The Relationship

Many countries are under constant fear that environmental policies might negatively influence the international competitiveness of polluting industries. In this study, we aim to evaluate the relationship and impact of the environmental tax on comparative advantage of trade in food and food products industry, considered to be one of the highly environmentally sensitive industries. This study also investigates, whether this relationship differs among countries covered in G20, with the help of correlation analysis. We select panel autoregressive distributed lag approach for this study as it can analyse long-run as well as short-run association even when the variables are stationary at different orders of integration. Using panel data from G20 countries over the period of 21 years that is from 1994 to 2015, it is concluded that when we allow environmental taxes to interact with the revealed comparative advantage (RCA) of G20 nations, the overall impact of the environmental tax on the RCA is negative in the long period. It is therefore suggested that countries should follow Porter hypothesis to stimulate innovations resulting from strict environmental regulations that affect the environment in least possible manner. JEL Codes: C01, C23, C33, F18, O57, Q5

scholarly journals The link between urbanization and air pollution in Turkey: Evidence from dynamic Autoregressive Distributed Lag simulations

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alper Aslan ◽  
BUKET ALTINOZ ◽  
BAKİ OZSOLAK
Keyword(s):  
Air Pollution ◽  
Energy Consumption ◽  
Co2 Emissions ◽  
Sustainable Growth ◽  
Similar Relationship ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Positive Shock ◽  
The Relationship

Abstract This study investigates the relationship between urbanization and air pollution in Turkey. Dynamic ARDL method was used for the period 1960–2014. According to the findings, there is a positive and statistically significant relationship between long-term urbanization and Co2. If urbanization increased by 1%, carbon emissions increased by 0.02%. There is a similar relationship between the shocks that will occur in population growth and Co2 emission in the long term. However, there is a negative and statistically insignificant relationship between the two variables. In the relationship between GDP and Co2, there is a positive relationship in the long term. GDP increase of 1% increases Co2 emissions by 0.11%. There is a similar relationship between long-term GDP shocks and Co2 emissions. According to short-term analysis results, energy consumption increases Co2 emissions by the same rate as GDP. However, the astonishing result of the study emerges here. Empirical results show that a long-term positive shock in energy consumption reduces CO2 emissions and a negative shock increases pollution. According to these results, Turkey has not reached the point of sustainable growth. For this reason, this developing country needs to make regulatory implementations and determine future policies for these impacts affecting air pollution.

scholarly journals Comparison the Error Rate of Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) and Vector Autoregressive (VAR) (Case study: Forecast of Export Quantities in DIY)

2018 ◽  
Vol 18 (2) ◽  
pp. 167-177
Author(s):  
Dewi Kusuma Ningrum ◽  
Sugiyarto Surono
Keyword(s):  
Dynamic Model ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
Model Stability ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Distributed Lag Model ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Integration Test ◽  
Lag Model

Forecasting is estimating the size or number of something in the future. Regression model that enters current independent variable value, and lagged value is called distributed-lag model, if it enters one or more lagged value, it is called autoregressive. Koyck method is used for dynamic model which the lagged length is unknown, for the known lagged length it is used the Almon method. Vector Autoregressive (VAR) is a method that explains every variable in the model depend on the lag movement from the variable itself and all the others variable. This research aimed to explain the application of Autoregressive distributed-lag model and Vector Autoregressive (VAR) method for the forecasting for export amount in DIY. It takes export amount in DIY and inflation data, kurs, and Indonesias foreign exchange reserve. Forecasting formation: defining Koyck and Almon distributed-lag dynamic model, then the best model is chosen and distribution-lag dynamic forecasting is performed. After that it is performed stationary test, co-integration test, optimal lag examination, granger causality test, parameter estimation, VAR model stability, and performs forecasting with VAR method. The forecasting result shows MAPE value from ARDL method obtained is 0.475812%, while MAPE value from VAR method is 0.464473%. Thus it can be concluded that Vector Autoregressive (VAR) method is more effective to be used in case study of export amount in DIY forecasting. Keywords: Koyck; Almon; Lag; Autoregressive Distributed-Lag; Vector Autoregressive;

scholarly journals DAMPAK PEMBANGUNAN EKONOMI, PENGELUARAN RUMAH TANGGA, DAN KETERBUKAAN PERDAGANGAN TERHADAP KONSUMSI ENERGI FINAL DI INDONESIA

2019 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 1
Author(s):  
Bambang Priyo Cahyono ◽  
Yusro Hakimah
Keyword(s):  
Energy Consumption ◽  
Trade Openness ◽  
Value Added ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Final Consumption ◽  
Final Energy ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Final Energy Consumption

This study investigates the impact of economic growth on three main development sectors, household final consumption expenditure, and trade openness towards the growth of final energy consumption in Indonesia using annual data for the period 1972-2016. We applied autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) procedures which consist of stationarity test, cointegration test, as well as estimation the short-term and long-term relationships. The cointegration test revealed existence cointegration<br />relationship among the variables in the model. In the short-term and long-term model, our results indicated that the growth of value-added in agriculture sector and industry sector, household final consumption expenditures, and trade openness in the short-term and long-term have a significant effect toward final energy consumption in Indonesia, while the growth of value-added in the service sector only given a short-term effect toward final energy consumption in Indonesia. Based on these<br />results, it can be concluded that sustainable economic development in Indonesia needs to be accompanied by the development of new and renewable energy in order to fulfil domestic energy supply which is predicted to continue to increase rapidly in the future.<br />Keyword : final energi consumption, economic development, household final consumption expenditure, trade openness, autoregressive distributed lag modeling<br />JEL Classification : D1, E21, F14, O13, Q43.

COINTEGRATED-BASED FORECAST OF LONG-RUN RELATIONSHIPS

2021 ◽  
Vol 14(63) (1) ◽  
pp. 153-168
Author(s):  
Klara-Dalma Deszke ◽  
Liliana Duguleana
Keyword(s):  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Final Consumption ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Distributed Lag Model ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Lag Model ◽  
Relationship Of

The Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) and the Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model (ARDL) are used to estimate the cointegration in the case of long-run relationship of quarterly GDP and Final Consumption in Romania during the period 1995 – 2019. The actual data of 2020 Q1 and Q2 were used to check the best model’s validity. The static and dynamic approaches of the ARDL model were used to forecast the Final Consumption for Q3 and Q4 of the year 2020. Applying the cointegration model shows the long term relationship of GDP and Final Consumption, but also the effects of other factors, seen in the differences of Final Consumption from its Long-Run evolution, and comprised in the cointegrating terms.

Investigating the Roles of Physical Infrastructure, Financial Development and Human Capital on Economic Growth in Bangladesh

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 154-175
Author(s):  
Faroque Ahmed ◽  
Md. Jamal Hossain ◽  
Mohammad Tareque
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Human Capital ◽  
Financial Development ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Dynamic Relationship ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Physical Infrastructure ◽  
Long Term Impact

This article investigates the dynamic relationship among physical infrastructure, financial development, human capital and economic growth in Bangladesh, employing Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bound co-integration and Granger causality test for the period 1985–2019. The study finds a significantly positive long-term impact of physical infrastructure and human capital on economic growth. However, the effect of financial development on growth is found to be negative, and the result suggests that financial development will take place with economic growth. From the policy perspective, this study emphasises increasing investment in physical infrastructure and human capital for Bangladesh to foster long-term economic growth.

scholarly journals The duration of global agri-food export competitiveness

2017 ◽  
Vol 119 (6) ◽  
pp. 1378-1393 ◽  
Author(s):  
Štefan Bojnec ◽  
Imre Fertő
Keyword(s):  
Comparative Advantage ◽  
Agricultural Land ◽  
Survival Rates ◽  
Revealed Comparative Advantage ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Term Survival ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Country Level ◽  
Export Competitiveness

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to examine the pattern, duration and country-level determinants of global agri-food export competitiveness of 23 major global agri-food trading countries. Design/methodology/approach A large panel data set is compiled to facilitate assessment of the pattern, duration and country-level determinants of global agri-food export competitiveness using a revealed comparative advantage index. Findings The results suggest that the duration of revealed comparative advantage is heterogeneous at the agri-food product level. Long-term survival rates as revealed by the comparative advantage indices are among the highest for the Netherlands, France, Belgium, the USA, Argentina and New Zealand. The level of economic development, the share of agricultural employment, subsidies to agriculture and differentiated consumer agri-food products increase the likelihood of failure in the duration of comparative advantage, while the abundance of agricultural land and export diversification reduce that likelihood. Originality/value The framework is conceptually innovative in how it models the likelihood of failure in the duration of comparative advantage and assesses implications. Export competitiveness is a crucial factor in long-term global farm business survival as it fosters opportunities for business prosperity on global markets.

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