scholarly journals Military-Political Threats in Connection with the Probable Military Escalation in the Central European Region

2021 ◽  
pp. 141-151
Author(s):  
Anton Bondarenko

The article analyzes the military-political threats to Ukrainian statehood in regard to political events in the Russian Federation and a possible military escalation in the Central European region. It is noted that the Russian Federation authorities used the same strategy of regional destabilization with subsequent massive military intervention. The authoritarian Kremlin regime can protect itself exclusively with aggressive external policy and, finding itself on the rubicon of the loss of power, may resort to sharp destabilizing steps including the onset of a full-scale war in Central Europe. The geopolitical processes consisting of the latest events in the Republic of Belarus and the Russian Federation are analyzed. It is stated that as a result of the Kremlin’s aggressive policy, the entire Central European region can be at risk of military escalation. Analysis of the military-political situation indicates that in 2021 a bold plan of the Russian Federation, similar to the aggression against Georgia in 2008 and Ukraine in 2014, may be implemented in the Central European region, the process probably initiated by the armed confrontation in Belarus provoked by the Kremlin’s secret services. NATO military analysts have been considering the possibility of Russian military aggression against the Baltic states since 2014, with the most vulnerable point being the Polish-Lithuanian border between Belarus and Kaliningrad region of Russia, the so-called Suwalki Gap. The same vulnerable area of potential instability and hostilities is the border between Belarus and Ukraine. Under the conditions of the occupation of Crimea and the continuation of the undeclared war in Donbas, the hypothetical aggression of the Russian Federation in the North-Western regions of Ukraine threatens the Ukrainian statehood itself. Such a critical strategic threat requires urgent preventive action.

2019 ◽  
Vol 7 (3) ◽  
pp. 22-39
Author(s):  
Vitaly N. Naydenko

The article examines the problems of open and latent ethnonational tension in Russian society, which in the conditions of aggravation of the social situation, may lead to the use of spontaneous methods of solving ethnonational conflicts, including those of a violent nature. A survey of 20 experts, who are qualified specialists in the sphere of ethno-extremism counteraction and ethno-national conflict localization, conducted by the author of the article, has shown that the majority of them have assessed both the current and forecasted situation in the sphere of ethnonational relations as “tense” for the next five to seven years. In their opinion, “ethnonational tension” is conditioned by a number of long-term factors that will influence the content and dynamics of ethnonational conflict in the Russian Federation: the desire of the USA for global dominance and the confrontational policy of NATO member states towards Russia; the antiRussian policy of the Ukrainian leadership, which is attempting to accuse Russia of “unleashing and waging a hybrid war against Ukraine” and actively pushing Western countries to strengthen confrontation with the Russian Federation; attempts by some states to bring territorial claims against Russia; intensification of the fight against embezzlement of budgetary funds, systemic corruption and ethno-extremist manifestations in the North Caucasus region; the ethnopolitical situation in the Republic of Crimea, characterized by manifestations of Ukrainian nationalism and militant Islamism. According to expert estimates, the highest degree of ethnonational tension is currently maintained in the Republic of Dagestan, the Republic of Ingushetia, the Kabardino-Balkarian Republic, the Karachayevo-Circassian Republic, the Republic of Crimea, the Republic of Bashkortostan and the Republic of Tatarstan. The results of research in the article testify to the necessity of constant study of the problem of ethnonational conflicts, research into the factors influencing the maintenance and dynamics of conflict potential, definition of Russian regions with an increased level of tension, development of recommendations to authorities on prevention and localization of ethnonational conflicts.


2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 71-75
Author(s):  
Ekaterina Kolesnikova ◽  
Petr Afonin

The article analyzes the role of electronic Declaration centers as an administrator of customs payments transferred to the Federal budget of the Russian Federation. An analysis of the economic efficiency of creating geographically distributed electronic Declaration centers is carried out on the example of the St. Petersburg customs post (CED) and the Baltic customs post (CED). We also assessed trends in the economic efficiency of creating e-Declaration centers based on statistical methods for making a forecast.


Author(s):  
A. S. Volynkina ◽  
O. V. Maletskaya ◽  
O. N. Skudareva ◽  
I. V. Tishchenko ◽  
E. I. Vasilenko ◽  
...  

The review presents an analysis of the epidemiological and epizootiological situation on Crimean hemorrhagic fever in the Russian Federation in 2020. During the stated period, 32 CHF cases were registered, which is the minimum indicator since the activation of the natural focus of CHF in 1999. The mortality rate was 3.1 %. The incidence was recorded in the Rostov, Astrakhan Regions, Stavropol Territory, the Republics of Dagestan and Kalmykia. A significant decrease in the incidence of CHF was noted in all entities of the Southern Federal District and the North-Caucasian Federal District. An imported from the Republic of Crimea case of CHF was detected in Moscow. The seasonality of morbidity, occupational, and age composition of CHF patients, modes of transmission, features of the clinical course of the disease in 2020 corresponded to the data of long-term observations. Epizootiological monitoring of the territory of the CHF natural focus showed that the abundance of Hyalomma marginatum adults and the percentage of Ixodidae tick pools positive for the presence of CCHF virus markers corresponded to the average long-term indicators at stationary observation points in 2020 , which indicates the persisting epizootiological disadvantage of the territory of the natural CHF focus in the Russian Federation. The persisting high numbers and infection rate of H. marginatum ticks can contribute to the development of an unfavorable epidemiological situation in the south of the country with a possible increase in the incidence of CHF in the Russian Federation in 2021. 


2015 ◽  
Vol 70 (6) ◽  
pp. 741-747
Author(s):  
Fatima Nikolaevna Bidarova

Background: The modern system of state quality control over medicine makes it possible to reveal and withdraw drugs, that do not meet the requirements. However the problem of the turnover of substandard and fake drug and their destruction in the Russian Federation is still urgent. The aim of the study: to evaluate the effectiveness of state quality control over medicine and the practice of fake medicine destruction. Methods: data of the official websites of the Ministry of Health of the Russian Federation and the Republic of North Ossetia — Alania, Russian Sanitary Inspection, National Center of Quality control and Certification of Drugs were included in the investigation. Method of unrepeated samples was used in sociological investigations. 225 questionnaires have been worked out. The research was carried out in the North-Ossetian State Medical academy during the period from 2013 to 2015 with the help of the National Center of Quality Control and Certification of Drugs. Results: The shortcomings of the state quality control over the rules of fake drug destruction were studied. It was found out that the mechanism of permanent data collection monitoring of revealing, moving and destruction of substandard and fake drug destruction has not been determined. The ineffectiveness of controlling measures under the condition of critical legal base deficiency has been confirmed. The analysis of terminology characterizing the order of fake drug destruction was carried out. Conclusion: deficiencies related to the implementation of the state quality control over the fake drug destruction rules revealed during the course of investigations prove the necessity of adopting measures in creating new model of control functions, increasing the results of activity.


Author(s):  
V.A. Gurov ◽  

The article is devoted to the role and place of the armed forces of the Russian Federation in restoring constitutional order in the Chechen Republic. The author summarized the experience of using military units and subunits in regrouping and destroying militants in urban and mountainous conditions. He offers a comprehensive analysis of the shortcomings in the training of military units. The article also contains author's subjective observations made during participation in the military operations in Chechnya.


Author(s):  
D. G. Ponomarenko ◽  
E. B. Ezhlova ◽  
D. V. Rusanova ◽  
A. A. Khachaturova ◽  
N. D. Pakskina ◽  
...  

Presented is the analysis of brucellosis incidence among humans and animals in the Russian Federation in 2018. Epizootiological situation in the regions of developed animal husbandry remains reasonably tense. In 2018, as in previous years, the foci of bovine cattle and small ruminant brucellosis were registered in the North Caucasian, Southern Federal Districts, Volga and Siberian Federal Districts, the share of which made up to more than 90% of all registered in Russia potentially hazardous as regards brucellosis areas and cases of the disease in animals. Against the background of long-term unfavorable epizootic condition, the incidence of brucellosis over the past three years was, on average, 14 % lower than the average long-term indicators. The greatest number of cases (94.1 % of the overall Russian incidence) is registered in the administrative subjects of the North Caucasus Federal District, Southern Federal District and Siberian Federal District, which have the maximum levels of brucellosis incidence in cattle (88.9 %) and small ruminants (95 %). In 2019, persistence of epidemiological problems in regard to brucellosis in the subjects of the North Caucasus Federal District (primarily the Republic of Dagestan, Stavropol Territory), the Southern Federal District (the Republic of Kalmykia, Volgograd and Astrakhan Regions), and the Siberian Federal District (the Tuva Republic, the Omsk and Tyumen Regions) is predicted. The number of human cases of brucellosis may be within the range of 290–310 cases (intensive incidence rate per 100 thousand population – 0.21).


Author(s):  
L. Oldak ◽  
L. Gunko ◽  
A. Shevkun

Problem setting. The issue of Ukrainian relations with the four state members of the Visegrad Group is important from the very beginning of the establishment of the Visegrad Group as Ukraine is interested in raising the question of its support in the integration into the NATO and EU. The Visegrad Group has the experience of supporting its members in such integration. In addition, Ukraine is concerned about the resolution of its defence problems. Takin into consideration the war conflict of Ukraine with the Russian Federation that started in 2014, issues of cooperation in the military field turned out to be of top priority in relations with the state members of the Visegrad Group. Recent research and publications analysis. Issues of cooperation of Ukraine with the four state members of the Visegrad Group, in particular as a means for the European integration, have been studied by O. Andriychuk, Ye. Kish, M. Lendiel, A. Kudriachenko, S. Mitriaeva and H. Perepelytsia. Challenges and opportunities in collaboration of the Visegrad Group countries with Ukraine in the field of defence and security have been analysed in research works of V. Andreiko, H. Mysak and O. Kaplynskyi. Highlighting previously unsettled parts of the general problem. In spite of numerous studies of the above-mentioned authors, military cooperation between Ukraine and the state members of the Visegrad Group is understudied. Issues of working together with individual state members of the Visegrad Group in the military field need to be addressed deeper. Especially, it is important to outline military cooperation with the Republic of Poland in light of understanding the threats posed by the Russian Federation to Eastern-European countries. Paper main body. The Visegrad Group (Visegrad Four or V4) is a union of the four countries – Poland, Hungary, Czechia and Slovakia, founded 25 years ago on 15 February 1991, composed at that time of the three states: Poland, Hungary and Czechoslovakia. The union was formed as a result of the reaction of countries of the former Communist Bloc to the dissolution of the Warsaw Treaty Organization and the Council for Mutual Economic Assistance that created economic and security problems for the states, which they tried to solve partially by the enforcement of regional cooperation. According to the instruments of incorporation, the V4 Group is headed by one of the state members based on annual rotation, with a Summit of Heads of Governments held at the end. The countries head the organization for one year by turn. The main priorities of heading include expansion of the EU to the Western Balkans and eastern policy of the EU, cooperation in the field of defence, etc. Ukraine is one of the key partners of the V4 Group, aiming primarily at establishing a comprehensive dialogue and elaborating a joint position on the whole range of topical issues of international partnership and political situation, including in the region of the East Central Europe. In the period from 1 July 2019 to 30 June 2020, the V4 Group was headed by the Czech Republic. Taking into consideration significant changes in the security environment, the program of Czech heading was targeted at the expansion of cooperation in the following areas: – internal unity (joint political approach and solutions: there were more than 10 statements approved by the V4 Group at the level of Heads of Governments and Ministers of Foreign Affairs since the escalation of the situation in Ukraine regarding the support of Ukraine and preservation of its territorial integrity); – defence and security cooperation (implementation of common projects both within the V4 Group and the European Union), and others. Polish heading provided for coordination of the position of the state members of the V4 Group concerning Ukraine and the Ukrainian-Russian conflict, and evaluation of the previous activities of the V4 Group towards the support of Ukraine. The Republic of Poland makes every effort to strengthen relations with Ukraine aimed at minimizing political threats and enforcing Polish defence. In the area of military cooperation, Ukraine and the Republic of Poland achieved substantial success in formation of the regulatory and legal framework of cooperation and initiation of primary directions of collaboration – from participation in the Partnership for Peace Program, joint military trainings, sharing experiences, improvement of professional skills of officers, education of mobile and tank forces to formation of a Polish-Ukrainian unit. Support of the idea of creation of a common security (defence) space from the Baltic States to the Back Sea must become a prioritized direction in cooperation between Ukraine and the Visegrad Group. Intensification of mutual efforts in the mentioned area will contribute to restraining the unhidden full-scale military aggression of Russia and serve as a factor of holding the Russian Federation from new re-division of the spheres of influence and territories. Conclusions of the research and prospects for further studies. Therefore, Ukraine has a great potential for the expansion of cooperation with the countries of the V4 Group in the military field, in particular with Poland and Czech Republic. Planning of and participation in the activities within the regional military collaboration of the Visegrad Group with Ukraine gradually turn into an efficient ground for the achievement of the main strategic objective of our country – full integration into the European Atlantic security space and joining the political and military alliance NATO. Further studies will provide an insight into the possibilities for enhancement of cooperation of Ukraine with the individual state members of the Visegrad Group (Poland, Czech Republic, Slovakia) in the military field and development of comprehensive measures to mitigate the destructive policy of Hungary towards Ukraine.


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