scholarly journals Keeping a cool head at all times. What determines choice consistency?

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Felix Jan Nitsch ◽  
Tobias Kalenscher
Keyword(s):  
Empirical Work ◽  
Neurological Status ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Expected Returns ◽  
Current State ◽  
Subjective Value ◽  
Choice Consistency ◽  
Blood Alcohol Levels ◽  
Rational Choice Theories ◽  
Trait Factors

Many rational choice theories posit that rational decision makers assign subjective values to all available choice options and choose the option with highest subjective value. Choice options are usually composed of multiple attributes, e.g. healthiness and taste in dietary choice or risk and expected returns in financial choice. These attributes have to be integrated into a single subjective value. Subjective value maximizing choice requires choice consistency, i.e. consistent weighing of the choice attributes across choices. However, empirical work suggests that perfect choice consistency is often violated, for example when decision makers weigh choice attributes differently across multiple decisions. Some researchers propose to extend certain bounds of rationality or to abandon the concept of rationality as adherence to consistency principles altogether. A more conservative stance assumes that perfect consistency can be violated by decision makers in practice, but that consistency principles still can explain large parts of behavior. In a review of the recent literature, we identify factors for compromised consistency relative to baseline conditions. Broadly, we distinguish between undynamic trait factors and fluid state factors. We find evidence for an influence of age, education, intelligence, and neurological status. In contrast, choice consistency appears to be relatively robust to the influence of sex, personality traits, cognitive load, sleepiness and blood alcohol levels. We conclude, that, according to the current state of the literature, only fundamental differences in decision makers, that is, trait differences, have a significant impact on choice consistency.

The Price of Predictability: Estimating Inconsistency Premiums in Social Interactions

2021 ◽  
pp. 014616722199853
Author(s):  
Judith Gerten ◽  
Michael K. Zürn ◽  
Sascha Topolinski
Keyword(s):  
Risk Premium ◽  
Psychological Research ◽  
Expected Value ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Expected Returns ◽  
Expected Return ◽  
Total N ◽  
Financial Decision ◽  
Variance Risk ◽  
Risky Option

For financial decision-making, people trade off the expected value (return) and the variance (risk) of an option, preferring higher returns to lower ones and lower risks to higher ones. To make decision-makers indifferent between a risky and risk-free option, the expected value of the risky option must exceed the value of the risk-free option by a certain amount—the risk premium. Previous psychological research suggests that similar to risk aversion, people dislike inconsistency in an interaction partner’s behavior. In eight experiments (total N = 2,412) we pitted this inconsistency aversion against the expected returns from interacting with an inconsistent partner. We identified the additional expected return of interacting with an inconsistent partner that must be granted to make decision-makers prefer a more profitable, but inconsistent partner to a consistent, but less profitable one. We locate this inconsistency premium at around 31% of the expected value of the risk-free option.

D Minus Months: Strategic Planning for Weather-Sensitive Decisions

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eva D. Regnier ◽  
Joel W. Feldmeier
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Decision Analysis ◽  
Weather Forecasting ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Strategic Decisions ◽  
Sequential Decisions ◽  
Weather Forecasts ◽  
Current State ◽  
Set Up ◽  
Made In

General Eisenhower’s decisions to postpone and, one day later, to launch the “D-Day” invasion of Normandy are a gripping illustration of sequential decisions under uncertainty, suitable for any introductory decision analysis class. They’re also the archetypal example of weather-sensitive decision making using a forecast. This paper develops a framework for analyzing weather-sensitive decisions with a focus on the less-familiar strategic decisions that determine how forecasts are produced and what operational alternatives are available so that decision makers can extract value from forecasts. We tell the story of the decisions made in the months before D-Day regarding how to set up the forecasting process and the myriad decisions implicating nation-level resources that prepared Allied forces not just to invade, but to hold open that decision until the last possible hour so that Eisenhower and his staff could use the critical forecasts. Finally, we overview the current state of the weather-forecasting enterprise, the current challenges of interest to decision analysts, and what this means for decision analysts seeking opportunities to help the weather enterprise improve forecasts and to help operational decision makers extract more value from modern weather forecasts.

Brain, Beauty, and Art

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Empirical Work ◽  
Creative Arts ◽  
Dance Music ◽  
Short History ◽  
Future Directions ◽  
Current State ◽  
History Of ◽  
Music And Architecture ◽  
Volume Targets ◽  
Near Future

Neuroscience joins the long history of discussions about aesthetics in psychology, philosophy, art history, and the creative arts. In this volume, leading scholars in this nascent field reflect on the promise of neuroaesthetics to enrich our understanding of this universal yet diverse facet of human experience. The volume will inform and stimulate anyone with an abiding interest in why it is that, across time and culture, we respond to beauty, engage with art, and are affected by music and architecture. The volume consists of essays from foundational researchers whose empirical work launched the field. Each essay is anchored to an original, peer-reviewed paper from the short history of this new and burgeoning subdiscipline of cognitive neuroscience. Authors of each essay were asked three questions: (1) What motivated the original paper? (2) What were the main findings or theoretical claims made?, and (3) How do those findings or claims fit with the current state and anticipated near future of neuroaesthetics? Together, these essays establish the territory and current boundaries of neuroaesthetics and identify its most promising future directions. Topics include models of neuroaesthetics and discussions of beauty, art, dance, music, literature, and architecture. The volume targets the general public; it also serves as an important resource for scientists, humanitarians, educators, and newcomers to the field, and it will catalyze interdisciplinary conversations critical to the maturation of this young field.

Proximate Mechanisms of Individual Decision-Making Behavior

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Paul W. Glimcher
Keyword(s):  
Twentieth Century ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Resource Constraints ◽  
Empirical Work ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Decision Variable ◽  
Computational Resource ◽  
Human Decision ◽  
Holistic Theory ◽  
Decision Making Behavior

In the early twentieth century, neoclassical economic theorists began to explore mathematical models of maximization. The theories of human behavior that they produced explored how optimal human agents, who were subject to no internal computational resource constraints of any kind, should make choices. During the second half of the twentieth century, empirical work laid bare the limitations of this approach. Human decision makers were often observed to fail to achieve maximization in domains ranging from health to happiness to wealth. Psychologists responded to these failures by largely abandoning holistic theory in favor of large-scale multi-parameter models that retained many of the key features of the earlier models. Over the last two decades, scholars combining neurobiology, psychology, economics, and evolutionary approaches have begun to examine alternative theoretical approaches. Their data suggest explanations for some of the failures of neoclassical approaches and revealed new theoretical avenues for exploration. While neurobiologists have largely validated the economic and psychological assumption that decision makers compute and represent a single-decision variable for every option considered during choice, their data also make clear that the human brain faces severe computational resource constraints which force it to rely on very specific modular approaches to the processes of valuation and choice.

Challenge

2017 ◽  
pp. 10-25
Author(s):  
Lennie Scott-Webber
Keyword(s):  
Deep Learning ◽  
Learning Strategies ◽  
Teaching And Learning ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Evidence Based ◽  
Classroom Design ◽  
Left Behind ◽  
Current State ◽  
Behavioral Cues ◽  
Teaching And Learning Strategies

Too many stakeholders are ignoring too much scientific research and the net resulting outcome is too many students are left behind academically. Significant and strategic changes must occur quickly to correct this fundamental outcome. This chapter explores issues relative to the current state of classroom design and why they haven't changed systemically in over 4000 years. Definitions of active learning and behavioral research basics, the nature of the physical learning place, Evidence-Based Designs (EBD) solutions and examples of solution features and capabilities impacting pedagogy (i.e., teaching and learning strategies), technology and spaces are shared. Metrics of ‘proof' of engagement impact are cited, and this author argues that space provides behavioral cues. To simplify the complexity of moving from a teacher-centric paradigm and design solutions to a learner-centric one, two important items for consideration are presented: 1) a formula guiding deep learning parameters for all stakeholders and 2) a decision-makers' checklist.

scholarly journals The criteria used by key decision makers in Australia to judge the academic quality of NTROs

2020 ◽  
Vol 177 (1) ◽  
pp. 165-175 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alan McKee
Keyword(s):  
Academic Research ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Academic Disciplines ◽  
Academic Quality ◽  
Current State ◽  
Traditional Research ◽  
Academic Researchers ◽  
Expert Community ◽  
Level Of Agreement

Thirty experts in the assessment of the quality of Non-Traditional Research Outputs (NTROs) as academic research outputs were asked to rate the importance of 19 criteria that might be used in making these judgements. Analysis of responses identified four criteria where there is substantial agreement among the community of experts: (a) demonstrated familiarity in the research statement with the current state of knowledge in the relevant academic disciplines (very important); (b) demonstrated familiarity in the research statement with the current state of knowledge in the relevant industry (important); (c) evidence that the work has been engaged with by other academic researchers (relevant); (d) whether the NTRO creator is a substantive university staff member or an adjunct/honorary (unimportant). Fifteen other criteria either reached a less than ‘fair’ level of agreement, or larger numbers of respondents nominated ‘It depends’. Qualitative analysis of comments also revealed noteworthy disagreements in the expert community about how the criteria should be applied.

scholarly journals German Teachers’ Digital Habitus and Their Pandemic Pedagogy

2020 ◽  
Vol 2 (3) ◽  
pp. 879-905
Author(s):  
Carolyn Blume
Keyword(s):  
Public Schools ◽  
Technology Acceptance ◽  
Teaching And Learning ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Positive Development ◽  
Teacher Professionalization ◽  
Current State ◽  
Explanatory Account ◽  
State Of Affairs ◽  
Near Future

Abstract After closing public schools in early 2020 to slow the spread of Covid-19, attempts to provide continuity of education in Germany by means of digital tools faltered in variety of ways, with insufficient competence and inadequate technology leading to inequitable access and uneven implementation. Understanding how German teachers were caught unprepared in this time of crisis, especially in comparison with their European neighbors, requires an examination of their habitus as discussed by Bourdieu and Wacquant (1992) that accounts for their behaviors beyond existing models regarding technology acceptance. Drawing on existing sociological and media-related studies, this contribution will describe the attitudes of German teachers and educational decision-makers in light of their digital, cultural, and educational habitus to provide a partial explanatory account for the current state of affairs. It will show how traditional skepticism for innovation among teachers in general, and German teachers in particular, is reinforced by demographic and sociological characteristics of the German teacher population and the nature of German schooling. After describing extant conditions regarding digitally mediated educational experiences during the initial Covid-19 phase in Germany based on emerging data, this article will subsequently identify prospective issues in this area in the near future. While the transition to digital teaching and learning has the potential to bring about a number of challenges, early data suggests that a possibility of significant positive development may occur as well. Based on these indications, the article will conclude with implications for teacher professionalization going forward.

Combating corruption in Pakistan

2016 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 195-210 ◽  
Author(s):  
Feisal Khan
Keyword(s):  
The State ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Ruling Elite ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Current State ◽  
British Colonial ◽  
The Government ◽  
Systemic Corruption ◽  
Institutional Capabilities

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to analyze the current state of corruption in Pakistan and evaluate attempts by the government to combat its entrenched corruption culture. Design/methodology/approach – The paper shows that Pakistan’s legacy of British colonial rule, its ethno-linguistic conflict and alternating civilian governments and military coups have weakened institutional capabilities, hindered capacity building and allowed systemic corruption to flourish there. Pakistan’s many anti-corruption efforts failed because they were used to attack political foes instead of strengthening institutional capabilities. Findings – Pakistan has maintained its highly authoritarian form of governance inherited from the British in 1947. The ruling elite view the state as a milch cow for their personal enrichment and this attitude is also reflected in the performance of its bureaucracy. Existing rules of conduct and administration are not enforced as citizens encounter corruption in their dealings with officials. At the policy level, key decisions are often made to benefit the decision makers. The paper concludes that without political will no significant improvement in the state of corruption in Pakistan is likely to occur. Originality/value – This paper will be useful for scholars, policy-makers and anti-corruption practitioners who are interested in corruption in Pakistan and whether the apparent institutionalization of parliamentary democracy has reduced corruption there.

Brands, love and family

2016 ◽  
Vol 25 (1) ◽  
pp. 69-83 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pramod P. Iyer ◽  
Audhesh K Paswan ◽  
Arezoo Davari
Keyword(s):  
Content Analysis ◽  
Family Members ◽  
Empirical Work ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Product Categories ◽  
Multiple Decision Makers ◽  
Functional Product ◽  
Mother And Child ◽  
Decision Making Behavior

Purpose – The purpose of this study is to explore the extent to which love cues are used by brands targeted at multiple decision-makers in a family, specifically the mother and child. Design/methodology/approach – First, secondary database (SmartyPants, 2013) is used to identify clusters of brands with similar benefit groups (i.e. health and nutrition food, indulgence food, entertainment and technology for entertainment and learning) that are most loved by mothers and/or children. Next, a content analysis of the ads for brands in these clusters is used to identify the common positioning cues across these clusters. The data from the content analysis are used to explore the extent to which love cues (along with functional and hedonic) are used by these brands loved by mothers and children. Findings – The results of this study indicate that functional cues dominate the ads for the brands in functional product categories, as well as hedonic product categories. Love cues dominate the ads for functional brands preferred by only either moms or kids, whereas for hedonic brands, love cues dominate the ads targeted at both moms and kids. Research limitations/implications – The authors hope that this study provides an impetus for more empirical work toward understanding the role of love in positioning brands aimed at multiple family members. Practical implications – Love, the underlying thread that connects a family, can be used by brand managers to appeal to multiple family members. Social implications – Families are fundamental to the society. The authors hope that this study helps marketers appreciate that and do a better job of marketing to the families, as families also form the fundamental units of purchase and consumption. Originality/value – This study uses value congruency framework to look at the notion of love as a positioning theme for brands targeted at multiple decision-makers. Hence, the study contributes to the development of family decision-making behavior.

scholarly journals Representation of value and meaning in the structure of vandalism: an empirical study

2021 ◽  
Vol 26 (4) ◽  
pp. 80-85
Author(s):  
Kirill V. Zlokazov
Keyword(s):  
Theoretical Model ◽  
Young People ◽  
Empirical Study ◽  
Empirical Research ◽  
Theoretical Basis ◽  
Current State ◽  
Subjective Value ◽  
State Of Research ◽  
The Relationship

The article is devoted to predicting and preventing urban vandalism. In the article described current state of research on structure of vandalism – motives, attitudes, ideas. It is shown that the activity approach can serve as a theoretical basis for study of the internal plan of vandal actions. On its basis, a theoretical model is determined, including the motive of vandalism and the ideas that regulate its implementation. These are the subjective value of vandal action and value that subject attaches to vandal action. The organisation, procedure and results of empirical research are described. Using a sample of young people living in 106 Russian cities (n = 650 people), we study the relationship between subjective ideas about the ability to commit a vandal act, its motives, attributed value and meaning. The results show that there is a conjugate effect of these representations on subjective ability to behave like a vandal. Their interpretation shows the presence of opposite approaches to the assessment of vandalism – from rejection to acceptance.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document