scholarly journals How people know their risk preference

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ruben C. Arslan ◽  
Martin Brümmer ◽  
Thomas Dohmen ◽  
Johanna Drewelies ◽  
Ralph Hertwig ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Taking ◽  
Real World ◽  
Revealed Preference ◽  
Risk Preference ◽  
Stated Preferences ◽  
The Self ◽  
Third Party ◽  
High Stakes ◽  
Dominant Class ◽  
Predictive Risk

People differ in their willingness to take risks. Recent work found that revealed preference tasks (e.g., laboratory lotteries)—a dominant class of measures—are outperformed by survey-based stated preferences, which are more stable and predict real-world risk taking across different domains. How can stated preferences, often criticised as inconsequential “cheap talk,” be more valid and predictive than controlled, incentivized lotteries? In our multimethod study, over 3,000 respondents from population samples answered a single widely used and predictive risk-preference question. Respondents then explained the reasoning behind their answer. They tended to recount diagnostic behaviours and experiences, focusing on voluntary, consequential acts and experiences from which they seemed to infer their risk preference. We found that third-party readers of respondents’ brief memories and explanations reached similar inferences about respondents’ preferences, indicating the intersubjective validity of this information. Our results help unpack the self perception behind stated risk preferences that permits people to draw upon their own understanding of what constitutes diagnostic behaviours and experiences, as revealed in high-stakes situations in the real world.

scholarly journals How people know their risk preference

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ruben C. Arslan ◽  
Martin Brümmer ◽  
Thomas Dohmen ◽  
Johanna Drewelies ◽  
Ralph Hertwig ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Taking ◽  
Real World ◽  
Revealed Preference ◽  
Risk Preference ◽  
Stated Preferences ◽  
The Self ◽  
Third Party ◽  
High Stakes ◽  
Dominant Class ◽  
Predictive Risk

Abstract People differ in their willingness to take risks. Recent work found that revealed preference tasks (e.g., laboratory lotteries)—a dominant class of measures—are outperformed by survey-based stated preferences, which are more stable and predict real-world risk taking across different domains. How can stated preferences, often criticised as inconsequential “cheap talk,” be more valid and predictive than controlled, incentivized lotteries? In our multimethod study, over 3,000 respondents from population samples answered a single widely used and predictive risk-preference question. Respondents then explained the reasoning behind their answer. They tended to recount diagnostic behaviours and experiences, focusing on voluntary, consequential acts and experiences from which they seemed to infer their risk preference. We found that third-party readers of respondents’ brief memories and explanations reached similar inferences about respondents’ preferences, indicating the intersubjective validity of this information. Our results help unpack the self perception behind stated risk preferences that permits people to draw upon their own understanding of what constitutes diagnostic behaviours and experiences, as revealed in high-stakes situations in the real world.

Comparison of the self-expanding Evolut-PRO transcatheter aortic valve to its predecessor Evolut-R in the real world multicenter ATLAS registry

2020 ◽  
Vol 310 ◽  
pp. 120-125
Author(s):  
Konstantinos Kalogeras ◽  
Neil Ruparelia ◽  
Tito Kabir ◽  
Richard Jabbour ◽  
Toru Naganuma ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Aortic Valve ◽  
Real World ◽  
The Self ◽  
The Real ◽  
Transcatheter Aortic Valve

scholarly journals Offline Algorithms in Low-Frequency Trading

Queue ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 18 (6) ◽  
pp. 37-51
Author(s):  
Terence Kelly
Keyword(s):  
Real Time ◽  
Real World ◽  
High Frequency ◽  
Low Frequency ◽  
Combinatorial Auctions ◽  
Hard Problem ◽  
Np Hard ◽  
High Stakes ◽  
Drill Bits ◽  
Np Hard Problem

Expectations run high for software that makes real-world decisions, particularly when money hangs in the balance. This third episode of the Drill Bits column shows how well-designed software can effectively create wealth by optimizing gains from trade in combinatorial auctions. We'll unveil a deep connection between auctions and a classic textbook problem, we'll see that clearing an auction resembles a high-stakes mutant Tetris, we'll learn to stop worrying and love an NP-hard problem that's far from intractable in practice, and we'll contrast the deliberative business of combinatorial auctions with the near-real-time hustle of high-frequency trading. The example software that accompanies this installment of Drill Bits implements two algorithms that clear combinatorial auctions.

scholarly journals An Empirical Comparison of Bias Reduction Methods on Real-World Problems in High-Stakes Policy Settings

2021 ◽  
Vol 23 (1) ◽  
pp. 69-85
Author(s):  
Hemank Lamba ◽  
Kit T. Rodolfa ◽  
Rayid Ghani
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Real World ◽  
Empirical Work ◽  
Bias Reduction ◽  
Research Community ◽  
High Stakes ◽  
Social Good ◽  
Social Service Delivery ◽  
Reduction Methods ◽  
Applications Of Machine Learning

Applications of machine learning (ML) to high-stakes policy settings - such as education, criminal justice, healthcare, and social service delivery - have grown rapidly in recent years, sparking important conversations about how to ensure fair outcomes from these systems. The machine learning research community has responded to this challenge with a wide array of proposed fairness-enhancing strategies for ML models, but despite the large number of methods that have been developed, little empirical work exists evaluating these methods in real-world settings. Here, we seek to fill this research gap by investigating the performance of several methods that operate at different points in the ML pipeline across four real-world public policy and social good problems. Across these problems, we find a wide degree of variability and inconsistency in the ability of many of these methods to improve model fairness, but postprocessing by choosing group-specific score thresholds consistently removes disparities, with important implications for both the ML research community and practitioners deploying machine learning to inform consequential policy decisions.

scholarly journals Fingerprinting Mobile Devices Using Personalized Configurations

2016 ◽  
Vol 2016 (1) ◽  
pp. 4-19 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andreas Kurtz ◽  
Hugo Gascon ◽  
Tobias Becker ◽  
Konrad Rieck ◽  
Felix Freiling
Keyword(s):  
Supervised Learning ◽  
Mobile Devices ◽  
Real World ◽  
Third Party ◽  
Learning Approach ◽  
Total Accuracy ◽  
Over Time

Abstract Recently, Apple removed access to various device hardware identifiers that were frequently misused by iOS third-party apps to track users. We are, therefore, now studying the extent to which users of smartphones can still be uniquely identified simply through their personalized device configurations. Using Apple’s iOS as an example, we show how a device fingerprint can be computed using 29 different configuration features. These features can be queried from arbitrary thirdparty apps via the official SDK. Experimental evaluations based on almost 13,000 fingerprints from approximately 8,000 different real-world devices show that (1) all fingerprints are unique and distinguishable; and (2) utilizing a supervised learning approach allows returning users or their devices to be recognized with a total accuracy of 97% over time

Respondents in Asian Cultures (e.g., Chinese) are More Risk-Seeking and More Overconfident than Respondents in Other Cultures (e.g., in United States) but the Reciprocal Predictions are in Total Opposition: How and Why?

2004 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 263-292 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shu Li ◽  
Yongqing Fang
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Social Network ◽  
Risk Taking ◽  
Risk Preferences ◽  
Risk Preference ◽  
Cross Cultural ◽  
Cultural Variations ◽  
Risk Seeking ◽  
The Social ◽  
Predicted Risk

AbstractTriggered by rather surprising findings that respondents in Asian cultures (e.g., Chinese) are more risk-seeking and more overconfident than respondents in other cultures (e.g., in United States) and that the reciprocal predictions are in total opposition, four experiments were designed to extend previous collective-culture oriented researches. Results revealed that (1) Singapore 21, which is a vision of Singapore in the 21st century and has highlighted the promotion of a collective culture, did not advocate greater risk-seeking but led to weaker overconfidence; (2) the knowledge of "financial help from social network" did not permit prediction of risk preference but the knowledge of "the value difference between possible outcomes" did; (3) the social network could be viewed not only as a positive "cushion" but also as a negative "burden" in both gain and loss domains of risky choices; (4) the predictions of the risk-as-value, risk-as-feelings and stereotype hypotheses were not consistent with the predicted risk preferences of others but the predictions of the economic-performance hypothesis were consistent with the predicted risk preferences as well as the predicted overconfidence of others. The implications for cross-cultural variations in overconfidence and for cross-cultural variations in risk-taking were discussed.

scholarly journals Friendship jealousy: One tool for maintaining friendships in the face of third-party threats?

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jaimie Krems ◽  
Keelah Williams ◽  
Douglas Kenrick ◽  
Athena Aktipis
Keyword(s):  
Romantic Relationships ◽  
Real World ◽  
Reproductive Fitness ◽  
Third Parties ◽  
Third Party ◽  
Primary Reason ◽  
Developmental Research ◽  
Emotional Experiences ◽  
The Face ◽  
On Line

Friendships can foster happiness, health, and reproductive fitness. But friendships end—even when we might not want them to. A primary reason for this is interference from third parties. Yet little work has explored how people meet the challenge of maintaining friendships in the face of real or perceived threats from third parties, as when our friends inevitably make new friends or form new romantic relationships. In contrast to earlier conceptualizations from developmental research, which viewed friendship jealousy as solely maladaptive, we propose that friendship jealousy is one overlooked tool of friendship maintenance. We derive and test—via a series of 11 studies (N = 2918) using hypothetical scenarios, recalled real-world events, and manipulation of on-line emotional experiences—whether friendship jealousy possesses the features of a tool well-designed to help us retain friends in the face of third-party threats. Consistent with our proposition, findings suggest that friendship jealousy is (1) uniquely evoked by third-party threats to friendships (but not the prospective loss of the friendship alone), (2) sensitive to the value of the threatened friendship, (3) strongly calibrated to cues that one is being replaced, even over more intuitive cues (e.g., the amount of time a friend and interloper spend together), and (4) ultimately motivates behavior aimed at countering third-party threats to friendship (“friend guarding”). Even as friendship jealousy may be negative to experience, it may include features designed for beneficial—and arguably prosocial—ends: to help maintain friendships.

scholarly journals Pedagogy as Education to Active Thinking

2020 ◽  
Vol 54 ◽  
pp. e054009
Author(s):  
Gianluigi Segalerba ◽  
Oleg Yurievich Latyshev-Maysky
Keyword(s):  
Education System ◽  
John Dewey ◽  
Paulo Freire ◽  
Traditional Education ◽  
Common Point ◽  
The Self ◽  
Social Construct ◽  
Dominant Class ◽  
Traditional System ◽  
Political Foundations

   In our study, we analyse some reflections contained in the education thought of John Dewey, Paulo Freire and Peter McLaren. The three thinkers, with mutually different methods, have, in our opinion, as common point the intention to show that no education system is neutral in relation to the way in which societies are organised: all systems of education aim at the constitution of a particular kind of society through the formation of a corresponding mentality in the individuals. The ethical and political foundations of a society are mirrored in the education system: any reform of the society should, therefore, begin with the reform of the education system; furthermore, any reform of the society cannot be effective unless it is founded on the reform of education.  As regards Dewey’s observations, we concentrate our attention on his criticism of any education system based on the passivity of pupils and on the massification of students: Dewey steadily pleads for a system of education aiming at the individualisation of pupils. As regards Freire’s meditation, we point out Freire’s uncovering of the oppression exercised against the subaltern classes through the traditional education systems: the constant relegation of pupils of the oppressed classes to a condition of total passivity, which is the aim of the system of education described by Freire as the banking concept of education, destroys any sense and aspiration to autonomy in the pupils themselves. Self-depreciation of pupils is the result of the traditional system of education. McLaren points out that a correct system of education should have as its own aim the self-transformation and the empowerment of the students: educators ought to uncover the relations holding between knowledge, which is always a social construct, and the interests of the dominant class. 

scholarly journals Biblical Inspirations in Nikifor’s Paintings

2019 ◽  
Vol 26 (3) ◽  
pp. 31-46
Author(s):  
Krzysztof Wałczyk
Keyword(s):  
Real World ◽  
The Self ◽  
Creative Activity ◽  
The Real ◽  
Ideal World ◽  
The World ◽  
Biblical Anthropology ◽  
Divine Order ◽  
The Ideal

Nikifor Krynicki (Epifaniusz Drowniak, 1895-1968) was one of the most popular non-academic Polish painters worldwide. To show the biblical inspiration in his creative output I chose two categories from various thematic aspects: self-portraits and landscapes with a church. There are plenty of Nikifor’s paintings showing him as a teacher, as a celebrating priest, as a bishop, or even as Christ. A pop­ular way to explain this idea of self-portraits is a psychological one: as a form of auto-therapy. This analysis is aims to show a deeper expla­nation for the biblical anthropology. Nikifor’s self-portraits as a priest celebrating the liturgy are a symbol of creative activity understood as a divine re-creation of the world. Such activity needs divine inspira­tion. Here are two paintings to recall: Potrójny autoportret (The triple self-portrait) and Autoportret w trzech postaciach (Self-portrait in three persons). The proper way to understand the self-identification with Christ needs a reference to biblical anthropology. To achieve our re­al-self we need to identify with Christ, whose death and resurrection bring about our whole humanity. The key impression we may have by showing Nikifor’s landscapes with a church is harmony. The painter used plenty of warm colors. Many of the critics are of the opinion that Nikifor created an imaginary, ideal world in his landscapes, the world he wanted to be there and not the real world. The thesis of this article is that Nikifor created not only the ideal world, but he also showed the source of the harmony – the divine order.

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