scholarly journals Potential demographic dividend for India, 2001 to 2061: A macro-simulation projection using the spectrum model

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Neha Jain ◽  
Srinivas Goli
Keyword(s):  
Simulation Modelling ◽  
Gdp Per Capita ◽  
Demographic Dividend ◽  
Employment Opportunities ◽  
Economic Changes ◽  
Agricultural Growth ◽  
Windows Of Opportunity ◽  
Rapid Pace ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
Spectrum Model

This paper projects potential demographic dividend for India for the period from 2001 to 2061 by using simulation modelling software, Spectrum 5.753 which integrates demographic and socio-economic changes. Two key findings, after checking their robustness, from the simulation modelling are: First, the effective demographic windows of opportunity for India is available for the period between 2011 and 2041, giving India roughly 30 years of demographic bonus. It is the period where the maximum of the first demographic dividend can be reaped before the ageing burden starts. Second, favourable demographic changes alone provide a demographic dividend of over 165,000 rupees (almost an additional 43 percentage) in terms of GDP per capita by 2061 when integrated with supporting socio-economic policy environment in terms of investment in human capital, family planning, decent employment opportunities, the rapid pace of urbanization, and agricultural growth.

Why Isn't Wales Richer?

1997 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 219-233 ◽  
Author(s):  
Steven Brand ◽  
Stephen Hill ◽  
Max Munday ◽  
Annette Roberts
Keyword(s):  
Regional Development ◽  
Development Strategy ◽  
Gdp Per Capita ◽  
Infrastructure Development ◽  
Economic Changes ◽  
Regional Development Strategy ◽  
Main Indicator ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
Manufacturing Growth

This paper examines the extent to which economic changes in Wales during the 1980s and early 1990s have impacted upon the main indicator of regional prosperity (GDP per head). The paper shows that the economic "successes" of Wales, in terms of inward investment attraction, infrastructure development and manufacturing growth, are yet to be translated into sustained improvements in relative GDP per capita. The general implications of the Welsh case for regional development strategy are examined in the conclusions.

scholarly journals Demographic Change and Economic Growth in India

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Neha Jain ◽  
Srinivas Goli
Keyword(s):  
Capita Income ◽  
Annual Growth Rate ◽  
Window Of Opportunity ◽  
Demographic Dividend ◽  
Per Capita Income ◽  
Employment Opportunities ◽  
Gender Empowerment ◽  
Working Age ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
Working Age Population

In this paper, we assess the economic benefits of demographic changes in India by employing econometric models and robustness checks based on panel data gathered over a period of more than three decades. Our analysis highlights four key points. First, the contribution of India’s demographic dividend is estimated to be around 1.9 percentage points out of 12% average annual growth rate in per capita income during 1981–2015. Second, India’s demographic window of opportunity began in 2005, significantly improved after 2011, and will continue till 2061. Third, our empirical analysis supports the argument that the realisation of the demographic dividend is conditional on a conducive policy environment with enabling aspects such as quality education, good healthcare, decent employment opportunities, good infrastructure, and gender empowerment. Fourth, the working-age population in India contributes around one-fourth of the inequality in per capita income across states. Thus, to reap the maximum dividends from the available demographic window of opportunity, India needs to work towards enhancing the quality of education and healthcare in addition to providing good infrastructure, gender empowerment, and decent employment opportunities for the growing working-age population.

scholarly journals Fertility and Household Welfare in Nigeria: A Time Series Econometric Approach

2022 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-10
Author(s):  
Ovikuomagbe Oyedele
Keyword(s):  
Unit Root Test ◽  
Household Consumption ◽  
Gdp Per Capita ◽  
Household Welfare ◽  
Demographic Dividend ◽  
Real Gdp ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Real Gdp Per Capita ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Per Capita

This study examines the effect of fertility levels on household welfare in Nigeria during the period from 1980 to 2020. Using data from the World Development Indicators for 2021, the estimation process began with a unit root test for the stationarity of the variables. A bounds cointegration test showed the presence of a long-run relationship between household consumption expenditure and fertility, but the result was inconclusive when real GDP per capita was used as a welfare proxy. The ARDL model was employed and the results showed that fertility had a negative, significant effect on household consumption per capita only in the short run. The effect was from previous years thereby showing a lagged effect. However, when welfare is measured using real GDP per capita, there were both short-run and long-run effects, such that Kuznets’ hypothesis of an inverted U-shaped relationship was obtained in the short run. In the long run, however, the relationship becomes U-shaped, implying that there is the possibility of a demographic dividend in the long run. Fertility policies must endeavor to control for the immediate or short-run negative effects of rising fertility rates and make deliberate plans to engage the future large working population in order to reap the possible demographic dividend.

Underemployment in Agriculture

New India ◽  
2020 ◽  
pp. 33-55
Author(s):  
Arvind Panagariya
Keyword(s):  
Agricultural Policy ◽  
Animal Husbandry ◽  
Gdp Per Capita ◽  
Agricultural Output ◽  
Agricultural Growth ◽  
Long Period ◽  
Self Sufficiency ◽  
History Of ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
The Way

The chapter begins with a history of agricultural policy in India. It goes on to argue that policies aimed at improving outcomes within agriculture alone cannot bring prosperity to those engaged in it. Today, agriculture employs 44 percent of India’s workforce but produces at most 17 percent of GDP. With the overall GDP per capita itself low, agricultural output per worker is extremely low, indicating gross underemployment of labor. Therefore, marketing reforms that shift prices in favor of the farmer and against intermediaries cannot go very far. With self-sufficiency in agriculture, increases in productivity will likely result in lower prices rather than higher revenues. Besides, agricultural growth rarely exceeds 4.5 percent over even a decade-long period. Scope for increased incomes through diversification within agriculture into horticulture, fisheries, and animal husbandry is also limited. The upshot is that the only avenue to increasing agricultural incomes rapidly is to pave the way for half or more of the farm workforce to migrate into industry and services.

scholarly journals Impact of the demographic dividend on economic growth

2018 ◽  
Vol 2 (4) ◽  
pp. 85-135
Author(s):  
Zarina Kazbekova
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Russian Federation ◽  
Population Decline ◽  
Gdp Per Capita ◽  
Demographic Dividend ◽  
Working Age ◽  
Real Gdp Per Capita ◽  
The Russian Federation ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
Working Age Population

In the context of the working-age population decline in the Russian Federation, the study of the influence of the dynamics of the share of the working -age population on economic growth is of particular interest. The main purpose of the article is to assess the contribution of the first demographic dividend to the GDP per capita growth rate in Russia betwеen 1997 and 2015. The main methods used by the author of this work are statistical analysis and econometric modeling based on Rosstat data. According to the results obtained in the course of this study, the first demographic dividend provided about 13% growth of real GDP per capita in the Russian Federation in 1997-2015. It has been proved that the age structure of the population is important.

Economic Analysis of the Refugee Influx to Austria

2017 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-12
Author(s):  
Johannes Berger ◽  
Ludwig Strohner
Keyword(s):  
Economic Analysis ◽  
Unemployment Rate ◽  
Labour Force ◽  
Economic Assessment ◽  
Gdp Per Capita ◽  
Employment Opportunities ◽  
Skill Composition ◽  
Swedish Experience ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
Employment Increase

This paper presents an economic assessment of the current refugee influx to Austria. Conclusions that can be drawn from Swedish experience suggest below average labour force integration of refugees, particularly in the first years after arrival. The skill composition of refugees is taken from surveys. The simulation model PuMA suggests a considerable employment increase, particularly of the unskilled workforce. This rise in employment remains, however, significantly below the number of additional refugees. The unemployment rate rises and is concentrated upon the refugees, but to a smaller extent unskilled residents are affected as well. Furthermore, wage developments of unskilled residents are below average. GDP per capita is negatively affected as a result of below average productivity and employment opportunities of refugees.

Searching for new Sources of growth. Are the Developing Countries Catching up with the Developed ones?

2015 ◽  
pp. 30-53
Author(s):  
V. Popov
Keyword(s):  
Developing Countries ◽  
Western Europe ◽  
Gdp Per Capita ◽  
The West ◽  
Catching Up ◽  
The Us ◽  
The World ◽  
Economic Divergence ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
Relative Standing

This paper examines the trajectory of growth in the Global South. Before the 1500s all countries were roughly at the same level of development, but from the 1500s Western countries started to grow faster than the rest of the world and PPP GDP per capita by 1950 in the US, the richest Western nation, was nearly 5 times higher than the world average and 2 times higher than in Western Europe. Since 1950 this ratio stabilized - not only Western Europe and Japan improved their relative standing in per capita income versus the US, but also East Asia, South Asia and some developing countries in other regions started to bridge the gap with the West. After nearly half of the millennium of growing economic divergence, the world seems to have entered the era of convergence. The factors behind these trends are analyzed; implications for the future and possible scenarios are considered.

Atlas of economic complexity, Russian regional pages

2018 ◽  
pp. 71-91 ◽  
Author(s):  
I. L. Lyubimov ◽  
M. V. Lysyuk ◽  
M. A. Gvozdeva
Keyword(s):  
Value Added ◽  
Growth Strategy ◽  
Gdp Per Capita ◽  
Export Diversification ◽  
Russian Regions ◽  
Economic Complexity ◽  
Diversification Strategies ◽  
Central Regions ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
Regions Of Russia

Well-established results indicate that export diversification might be a better growth strategy for an emerging economy as long as its GDP per capita level is smaller than an empirically defined threshold. As average incomes in Russian regions are likely to be far below the threshold, it might be important to estimate their diversification potential. The paper discusses the Atlas of economic complexity for Russian regions created to visualize regional export baskets, to estimate their complexity and evaluate regional export potential. The paper’s results are consistent with previous findings: the complexity of export is substantially higher and diversification potential is larger in western and central regions of Russia. Their export potential might become larger if western and central regions, first, try to join global value added chains and second, cooperate and develop joint diversification strategies. Northern and eastern regions are by contrast much less complex and their diversification potential is small.

The Reproduction Vector of the Russian Economy: 1999-2007

2008 ◽  
pp. 94-109 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. Sorokin
Keyword(s):  
Economic Policy ◽  
Human Capital ◽  
Growth Rates ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
Gdp Per Capita ◽  
Real Sector ◽  
Russian Economy ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
The Developed Countries

The problem of the Russian economy’s growth rates is considered in the article in the context of Russia’s backwardness regarding GDP per capita in comparison with the developed countries. The author stresses the urgency of modernization of the real sector of the economy and the recovery of the country’s human capital. For reaching these goals short- or mid-term programs are not sufficient. Economic policy needs a long-term (15-20 years) strategy, otherwise Russia will be condemned to economic inertia and multiplying structural disproportions.

Potentials for demographic dividend and rapid economic growth in Mali: What policy scenario would yield the greatest dividend?

2018 ◽  
Vol 15 (1) ◽  
pp. 7-15
Author(s):  
Clifford O. Odimegwu ◽  
Emmanuel O. Olamijuwon
Keyword(s):  
Family Planning ◽  
Economic Reforms ◽  
High Fertility ◽  
Economic Policies ◽  
Access To Education ◽  
Demographic Dividend ◽  
Policy Scenario ◽  
Rapid Economic Growth ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
The Cost

Abstract The demographic changes occurring in Mali, evident in high fertility but declining mortality rates have raised optimism about the prospects of reaping demographic dividend. However, it remains unclear how soon and what policy scenario would yield the largest demographic dividend in the country. We used a demographic-economic model “DemDiv” to assess the prospects of reaping a demographic dividend in Mali by 2050. We illuminate this further by examining the cost and implications of different combination of education, family planning and economic policies. The results show that by increasing access to education, family planning services coupled with strong economic reforms, Mali’s GDP per capita will be $27,044 by 2050. This high per capita GDP is almost thrice the benefit of prioritising only economic reforms. Mali would also have a GDP of $977 billion. These findings highlight the need for sound demographic and market-oriented economic policies for Mali to reap a large demographic dividend by 2050.

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