APPLICATION OF THE HOLT-WINTERS METHOD FOR FORECASTION HOSPITAL ADMISSIONS IN CITIES

2021 ◽  
Vol 4 (30) ◽  
pp. 22-32
Author(s):  
V. A. Klyapko ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Hospital Admissions ◽  
Analytical Data ◽  
Transportation Of Patients ◽  
Large Cities ◽  
Forecasting Methods ◽  
The Subject ◽  
Coronavirus Infection ◽  
Object Of Study ◽  
The City ◽  
Use Of Models

The current situation of coronavirus infection necessitates the use of models and prediction methods for decision- making in a rapidly changing situation in large cities and towns. Due to the dynamics of the processes, it is necessary to use different models and forecasting methods for the development of the situation. The city of St. Petersburg is the object of study and an analysis of hospitalisation of patients is performed. St. Petersburg was chosen as the subject of the research. The presented research was carried out within the framework of the work "Mathematical modelling of logistic systems in medicine" during the performance of diploma projects on the assignment of St. Petersburg executive authorities in 2021. In the course of the study analytical data are collected, the city districts where the situation with transportation of patients to medical organizations is likely to be difficult to predict are identified, and the methodology of forecasting hospitalization of patients by ambulance cars is considered. In solving the problem of predicting the situation, forecasting methods in the class of polynomial models are used and the effectiveness of using the Holt-Winters method is justified.

Slow Tourism in Large Cities: Creating Slow Districts

2016 ◽  
Vol 39 (0) ◽  
pp. 0-0
Author(s):  
Anna Wilkońska
Keyword(s):  
Development Strategy ◽  
Specific Binding ◽  
Case Analysis ◽  
Slow Movement ◽  
Large Cities ◽  
The Subject ◽  
The City ◽  
Method Analysis ◽  
Practical Implications

Purpose. Discussion regarding the development potential of large cities with respect to the idea of slow tourism, especially in the context of designated areas of specific city districts. References were made to the city of Cracow. Method. Analysis of literature on the subject made references to issues related to the idea of slow movement with respect to cities (slow city) and tourism (slow tourism). Analysis of Cracow’s case, in the context of the establishment of a slow district which is scheduled in the city, allowed for practical references with respect to the discussed issue. Findings. The performed analyses showed the complexity of the issue of slow movement, but also its attractiveness for large cities and tourists (e.g. on account of environmental protection). However, popularisation of the idea of slow movement also entails risks, especially related to its mass character and, in effect, its commercialisation. Research and conclusion limitations. Analysis of literature on the subject only referred to a fragment of the issue and case analysis focused on only one municipal centre. Practical implications. References were made to specific binding tasks from the Tourism Development Strategy of Cracow. Originality. References were made to a large municipal centre which, in the context of the slow movement idea, is a rare subject of academic papers. The subject matter was connected to specific examples of slow districts, planned in the strategic document for Cracow. Type of paper. Overview-type article and case study.

scholarly journals BENTUK DAN FUNGSI KODE DALAM WACANA KHOTBAH JUMAT (Studi Kasus di Kota Surakarta)

2012 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 71
Author(s):  
Kundharu Saddhono
Keyword(s):  
Qualitative Research ◽  
Research Method ◽  
Code Switching ◽  
Cultural Backgrounds ◽  
Qualitative Research Method ◽  
English Only ◽  
Determining Factors ◽  
The Subject ◽  
Object Of Study ◽  
The City

This study aims at describing the discourse of Friday sermons in the city of Surakarta. This study is a sociolinguistic study with qualitative research method. The language based code shows Indonesian language is used dominantly because the object of study is in Surakarta. Arabic is widely used because the Friday sermons are one kind of worships in Islam. Javanese language is used because of the speech location and cultural backgrounds. English only slightly appears and is influenced by the speakers’ background. The code based on the variations can be divided into the standard and non standard languages. Intra-sentential code switchings take the forms of words, reduplication, word repetitions, and phrases. This is due to attitudinal and linguistic factors. Inter-sentential code switchings are permanent and temporary. The determining factors are speakers, interlocutors, topics or subject matters, special speech functions/ends, and changes in circumstances. The functions of code switching in the Friday sermons are to express gratitude, purify God, glorify God, honor someone, express amazement, prohibit, sound prestigious, express permission, beg for forgiveness, beautify utterances, change the subject, pray for someone, declare an appointment, mention terms, express doubts, and regret something.

First data on population of stray dogs in Rostov-on-Don

2020 ◽  
pp. 27-28
Author(s):  
Aleksey M. Ermakov ◽  
◽  
Aleksandr P. Evsyukov ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Spatial Distribution ◽  
Age Composition ◽  
Stray Dogs ◽  
Large Cities ◽  
Animal Populations ◽  
Gender And Age ◽  
Sexual Composition ◽  
The Subject ◽  
Federal Laws ◽  
The City

Animal populations in large cities have long been the subject of public and scientific discussions. In Russia, there are currently no federal laws regarding the management of stray animal populations. The most common and problematic animals in cities are dogs. Urban populations of homeless and stray dogs are an important link in the conservation and transmission of pathogens that can lead to the development of zooanthroposes.To regulate the situation associated with homeless and stray dogs, it is necessary to take into account their number, gender and age composition. These data allow the competent management of the population and timely take measures to regulate it. The first data on the population of stray dogs in Rostov-on-Don are presented in the article. For animal counting was used technique developed by the ICAM coalitionrepeatedly tested in different cities of Europe and shown its efficiency. To estimate the number of dogs, the city was divided into 59sectors approximately equal in area. Each sector was divided into four parts, one of them was counted, the rest of the data was extrapolated. In each sector, 2-3 volunteers worked, who recorded the dogs they met, noting at the same time their approximate age, gender, size, and possible health problems. All actions during the calculations were carried out using the Strays ID program installed on volunteers' smartphones. According to the results of calculations, the total number of stray dogs in the city is approximately 2 712 individuals. The data on the sexual composition of the population, the number of sick and damaged dogs, their physique, spatial distribution by city districts and density are discussed.

scholarly journals Eleições legislativas no Porto (1895 e agosto de 1906)

2021 ◽  
pp. 365-391
Author(s):  
Tiago Reis
Keyword(s):  
Research Question ◽  
Major Research ◽  
Legislative Elections ◽  
The Third ◽  
The Subject ◽  
Research Questions ◽  
The One ◽  
Object Of Study ◽  
Xix Century ◽  
The City

There are three major research questions within the scope of the subject under study. The first concerns the electoral diplomas that regulated the legislative elections of 1895 and 1906 (the decrees of 28th March 1895 and 4th August 1901 are covered here). The second is related to the way in which the monarchic governments “manufactured” electoral victories, emphasizing the caciquismo as an instrument of manipulation of the vote. The third major research question is related to the analysis of the journalistic coverage given by the Porto newspapers O Comércio do Porto and A Voz Pública (sources selected for the writing of this article) to the legislative elections of 1895 and 1906 in the city of Porto, elections that constitute the object of study of this article. The aforementioned electoral acts were selected for this investigation as, on the one hand, there was not an obvious explanation for the resultsrecorded in Porto and, on the other hand, it would be interesting to understand how an electoral act took place at the end of the XIX century and at the beginning of the XX century. For this reason, it became interesting to study the context of its realization.

STUDI DESKRIPTIF MINAT CALON GURU SEKOLAH DASAR TERHADAP PENGGUNAAN ALAT PERAGA MATEMATIKA SETELAH PERKULIAHAN MEDIA DAN MODEL PEMBELAJARAN MATEMATIKA SD

2015 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 19
Author(s):  
Isna Rafianti ◽  
Etika Khaerunnisa
Keyword(s):  
Elementary Teachers ◽  
Elementary Mathematics ◽  
Mathematics Learning ◽  
Learning Model ◽  
Prospective Elementary Teachers ◽  
Descriptive Research ◽  
Learning Mathematics ◽  
Mathematical Problems ◽  
The Subject ◽  
Object Of Study

This research is motivated by the lack of interest of teachers in the use of props in the process of learning mathematics in elementary school. In accordance with the demands of the curriculum in 2013 and supported by the developed learning theory, learning mathematics is abstract object of study, students need an intermediary that props math-ematics, so that students can more easily understand the concepts that will be pre-sented, and in the end it can deliver students to solve mathematical problems, not only that proposed by the teacher but also the problems in life. The purpose of this study was to determine the interest of prospective elementary teachers on the use of props mathematics after getting lectures media and elementary mathematics learning model. By knowing the interest of prospective elementary teachers will be developed further realization of the state of the subject being studied. The method used is descriptive research, then the instruments used were questionnaires and interviews. The results of this study stated that the interest of prospective elementary teachers on the use of props after attending lectures media and elementary mathematics learning model is high over-all with a percentage of 76.70%.Keywords : Interest, Props Mathematics

Museum Preserves in the Sphere of “Cultural Tourism”: Through the Example of the Cultural Preserves of Tatarstan

2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 193-198
Author(s):  
Lyudmila S. Timofeeva ◽  
Albina R. Akhmetova ◽  
Liliya R. Galimzyanova ◽  
Roman R. Nizaev ◽  
Svetlana E. Nikitina
Keyword(s):  
19Th Century ◽  
Art Museum ◽  
Medium Size ◽  
Business Elite ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
The Subject ◽  
Tourist Center ◽  
Regional Authorities ◽  
The 19Th Century ◽  
The City

Abstract The article studies the existence experience of historical cities as centers of tourism development as in the case of Elabuga. The city of Elabuga is among the historical cities of Russia. The major role in the development of the city as a tourist center is played by the Elabuga State Historical-Architectural and Art Museum-Reserve. The object of the research in the article is Elabuga as a medium-size historical city. The subject of the research is the activity of the museum-reserve which contributes to the preservation and development of the historical look of Elabuga and increases its attractiveness to tourists. The tourism attractiveness of Elabuga is obtained primarily through the presence of the perfectly preserved historical center of the city with the blocks of integral buildings of the 19th century. The Elabuga State Historical-Architectural and Art Museum-Reserve, which emerged in 1989, is currently an object of historical and cultural heritage of federal importance. Museum-reserves with their significant territories and rich historical, cultural and natural heritage have unique resources for the implementation of large partnership projects. Such projects are not only aimed at attracting a wide range of tourists, but also stimulate interest in the reserve from the business elite, municipal and regional authorities. The most famous example is the Spasskaya Fair which revived in 2008 in Elabuga. It was held in the city since the second half of the 19th century, and was widely known throughout Russia. The process of the revival and successful development of the fair can be viewed as the creation of a special tourist event contributing to the formation of new and currently important tourism products.

Using augmented reality for navigation in space. Creating Visual Dictionaries

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Aida Khakimova ◽  
Oleg Zolotarev ◽  
Lyudmila Sharapova ◽  
Daler Mirzoev ◽  
Aleksanra Belaya ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Augmented Reality ◽  
Visual Image ◽  
Cultural Codes ◽  
The Subject ◽  
Spatio Temporal ◽  
The City

The image of the city is a spatio-temporal continuum in which everything is interconnected, it exists as a single monolith expressing itself in the general atmosphere. The visual image of the city may contain two planes of meanings: culturally ratified and universally valid, expressed by cultural codes, and also significant only to those who are viewing the image. Therefore, the content of the visual image depends on who the subject of perception is, what he pays attention to and in what situation the process of perception of the image occurs.

Ukraina Wschodnia jako przestrzeń symboliczna w prozie Serhija Żadana – na podstawie powieści Woroszyłowgrad i Mezopotamia

2020 ◽  
pp. 233-248
Author(s):  
Marta Zambrzycka ◽  
Paulina Olechowska
Keyword(s):  
Urban Space ◽  
City Space ◽  
Current Events ◽  
The Subject ◽  
The City

The subject of the article is an analysis of the three aspects of depicting urban space of Eastern Ukraine, focusing specifi cally on the Donbass region and the city of Kharkov as depicted in the novels Voroshilovgrad (2010) and Mesopotamia (2014) by Serhiy Zhadan. The urban space of Eastern Ukraine overlaps with the most important values that shape a person’s personality and aff ect her or his self-identifi cation. The city space is also a “place of memory” and experiences of generations that infl uence current events. In addition to the historical and axiological dimension, the imaginative aspect of space is also important. This approach is used by the author to describe the urban space as a functioning imagination or stereotypes associated with it as opposed to its realistic depiction.

Habilidades do Enfermeiro no Diagnóstico e Cuidado ao Portador de Depressão / Nursing Skills in Diagnosis and Care For Patients With Depression

1970 ◽  
Vol 5 (4) ◽  
pp. 13-19
Author(s):  
Cristiane Rosa Guedes ◽  
Bianca Del Ducca Alvarenga ◽  
Isabella Rotella ◽  
Débora Vitória Alexandrina Lisboa Vilella
Keyword(s):  
Data Collection ◽  
Family Involvement ◽  
Nursing Care ◽  
Direct Contact ◽  
Descriptive Study ◽  
Structured Interview ◽  
Qualitative Approach ◽  
Patient Relationship ◽  
The Subject ◽  
The City

RESUMOObjetivo: Identificar o significado para o enfermeiro em prestar cuidados para pacientes com Depressão.  Materiais e métodos: Estudo exploratório e descritivo com abordagem qualitativa, a amostra foi de 12 enfermeiras, o cenário de estudo foram Unidades Básicas de Saúde e Estratégias de Saúde da Família, urbanas da cidade de Itajubá-MG. A coleta de dados foi por meio do roteiro de entrevista semiestruturada composta por questionário contendo uma pergunta inerente ao assunto. Resultados: Encontramos oito categorias como estigma da depressão, suicídio, dificuldade em lidar, tempo escasso, envolvimento familiar, aceitação da doença, acolhimento e dar medicamento, de acordo com os discursos dos sujeitos coletados na entrevista. Conclusão: Os enfermeiros não estão em contato direto com portadores de depressão no seu trabalho, não entendem que é sua tarefa identificar e encaminha-los para tratamento especializado. Sugerimos que outros estudos sejam desenvolvidos sobre essa temática.Palavras-chave: Depressão. Relação Enfermeiro-Paciente. Assistência de Enfermagem. ABSTRACTObjective: To identify the meaning for nurses when providing care for patients with depression. Materials and Methods: exploratory and descriptive study with qualitative approach, the sample consisted of 12 nurses, the study scenario was the urban Unidades Básicas de Saúde e Estrategia de Saúde da Família, in the city of Itajubá. Data collection was done through semi-structured interview guides consisting of a questionnaire containing a question related to the subject. Results and Discussion: we found eight categories as stigma of depression, suicide, coping difficulties, scarce time, family involvement, acceptance of the disease, host and give medicine, according to the speeches of the subjects collected in the interview. Conclusion: nurses are not in direct contact with individuals with depression in their work, do not understand that it is their job to identify and refer them to specialized treatment. We suggest that other studies be developed on this theme.Keywords: Depression, Nurse-patient Relationship, Nursing care.

scholarly journals The Physical Education Class Perceived by Schoolchildren from 6 to 8 Years Old Expressed through Drawings

Children ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (8) ◽  
pp. 666
Author(s):  
Javier Cachón-Zagalaz ◽  
Déborah Sanabrias-Moreno ◽  
María Sánchez-Zafra ◽  
Amador Jesús Lara-Sánchez ◽  
María Luisa Zagalaz-Sánchez
Keyword(s):  
Physical Education ◽  
Facial Expression ◽  
Primary School ◽  
Physical Education Class ◽  
Primary School Students ◽  
School Students ◽  
Education Class ◽  
Frequent Use ◽  
The Subject ◽  
The City

Physical Education is one of the subjects that arouses the most interest in children. The aim of this study is to find out the opinion that primary school students have about the Physical Education class. Drawings from a sample of 62 students from an educational centre in the city of Jaén, aged between six and eight years old, were analysed. The results show that the larger size of the drawings corresponds to the aspects that are to be emphasised. This subject is carried out regularly in the sports pavilion of the centre, making frequent use of materials such as sticks, hoops or balls. Cheerful colours are used, reflecting their enthusiasm for the subject. The smiling facial expression represents the schoolchildren’s interest in the subject. The most popular games or sports are basketball and pichi, both of them collective.

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