scholarly journals TНЕ INFLUENCE OF DEMOGRAPHIC PROCESSES ON ECONOMIC SECURITY OF SUMY REGION

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Svitlana Vesperis ◽  
Hanna Samus ◽  
Olha Scherbina
Keyword(s):  
Age Structure ◽  
Birth Rate ◽  
Marriage Rate ◽  
Natural Increase ◽  
Economic Security ◽  
Migration Flow ◽  
Gradual Development ◽  
Demographic Processes ◽  
Labor Resources ◽  
The Impact

The article analyzes the impact of demographic processes on the economic security of Sumy region. The main characteristics of economic security of the region are highlighted. It is noted that the population of the country is a kind of foundation through which all types of national security, including economic, have their practical application. The following demographic characteristics of the population are analyzed, such as birth rate, death rate, sex and age structure, quantity, migration, which determine the available labor potential of the region and significantly affect the formation of economic security in the region. The negative tendency of reduction of the available population of the region is established. The sex composition of the population is insignificantly, but women predominate. The natural increase in the population of the region is a negative indicator, which indicates a decrease in the population of the region. Negative dynamics is characteristic of the marriage rate. Divorce is growing in the region. All this indicates the decline of the institution of the family, which in turn will affect the birth rate. With regard to migration growth (reduction) in general, it should be noted that this indicator is also negative, so the number of arrivals is less than the number of departures. But the exception is interstate migration, which is characterized by positive dynamics for the region. The region is dominated by the working age population, which is positive for economic security. At the same time, the share of people of retirement age is greater than children. In order to solve demographic problems and improve the economic security of the region, measures should be implemented at the regional level (except national ones) to increase the birth rate, support the development of medical institutions to reduce mortality, which will increase natural population growth. Considerable attention should be paid to the development of the production sphere and the sphere of services in order to reduce migration flows from the region and provide available labor resources with jobs, taking into account the gender and age structure. It is necessary to improve the socio-economic living conditions of the population, which will stimulate the migration flow of the population. These events will contribute to the stable and gradual development of the demographic component of economic security of Sumy region.

scholarly journals DETERMINATION OF REGULARITY OF CHANGES IN INDICATORS OF INNOVATION ACTIVITY ON DEVELOPMENT AND ECONOMIC SECURITY OF AGRICULTURAL COMPLEX OF UKRAINE

2019 ◽  
pp. 183-191
Author(s):  
Svitlana Kushnir
Keyword(s):  
Agricultural Sector ◽  
Value Added ◽  
Economic Security ◽  
Model Specification ◽  
Innovation Activity ◽  
Industrial Complex ◽  
Agricultural Producers ◽  
Consistent Assessment ◽  
Labor Resources ◽  
The Impact

The purpose of this article is to investigate the current state and dynamics of technical, energy capacities, labor resources and wages in Ukrainian agricultural enterprises, the impact of these indicators on efficiency of agricultural production, indicators of development and competitiveness of products on the domestic and foreign markets. The moral and physical deterioration of the equipment available at the farms is determined, which does not contribute to the increase of labor productivity and to obtaining consistently high economic results. On the basis of the dynamics of the analyzed statistical data, the problem of providing agricultural producers with labor resources was confirmed against the background of deepening of depopulation processes in the countryside, which led to the deterioration of quantitative and qualitative characteristics of human resources. Indicators of development and production rates of the agro-industrial complex of Ukraine have been investigated, that showed a low level of innovation implementation. Mathematical formalization of the relationship between the dynamics of changes in the gross value added indicators and the volume of sales of agricultural products is carried out. Based on the analysis of innovative activity indicators in the agricultural sector of Ukraine and the consistent assessment of the adequacy of linear and nonlinear pair equations, the model specification is presented, which is presented in the form of linear pair regression, which confirms the existence of a direct link between changes in the volume of sales in the agrarian sector.

ANNUAL SUMMARY OF VITAL STATISTICS—1968

PEDIATRICS ◽  
1969 ◽  
Vol 44 (6) ◽  
pp. 1031-1034
Author(s):  
Myron E. Wegman
Keyword(s):  
Birth Rate ◽  
Marriage Rate ◽  
The United States ◽  
Vital Statistics ◽  
Natural Increase ◽  
Annual Number ◽  
Sharp Rise ◽  
Death Rates ◽  
The Third ◽  
Number Of Births

Infant mortality declined again in 1968, for the third successive year, and there is some evidence of a more rapidly downward trend in the unacceptably higher infant death rates which have existed among some population groups. The birth rate also declined again, but the marriage rate showed rather a sharp rise ( Table I ). With an excess of births over deaths of 1.55 million persons, the rate of natural increase was 7.8 per 1,000 population. Births Once more there was a decline in annual number of births, although a smaller one than last year. Nevertheless, with a rising population the birth rate fell to 17.4, the lowest ever recorded in the United States.

scholarly journals Incorporating household structure and demography into models of endemic disease

2019 ◽  
Vol 16 (157) ◽  
pp. 20190317 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joe Hilton ◽  
Matt J. Keeling
Keyword(s):  
Age Structure ◽  
Household Structure ◽  
Older Individuals ◽  
Transmission Potential ◽  
Childhood Infections ◽  
Modelling Framework ◽  
Modelling Studies ◽  
Demographic Processes ◽  
Family Setting ◽  
The Impact

The spread of infectious diseases is intimately linked with the strength and type of contact between individuals. Multiple observational and modelling studies have highlighted the importance of two forms of social mixing: age structure, where the likelihood of interaction between two individuals is determined by their ages; and household structure, which recognizes the much stronger contacts and hence transmission potential within the family setting. Age structure has been ubiquitous in predictive models of both endemic and epidemic infections, in part due to the ease of assessing someone’s age. By contrast, although household structure is potentially the dominant heterogeneity, it has received less attention, in part due to an absence of the necessary methodology. Here, we develop the modelling framework necessary to predict the behaviour of endemic infections (which necessitates capturing demographic processes) in populations that possess both household and age structure. We compare two childhood infections, with measles-like and mumps-like parameters, and two populations with UK-like and Kenya-like characteristics, which allows us to disentangle the impact of epidemiology and demography. For this high-dimensional model, we predict complex nonlinear dynamics, where the dynamics of within-household outbreaks are tempered by historical waves of infection and the immunity of older individuals.

scholarly journals The development of the marriage rate, the divorce rate, the birth rate and the death rate

2008 ◽  
Vol 53 (No. 1) ◽  
pp. 1-8
Author(s):  
J. Dufek
Keyword(s):  
Urban Areas ◽  
Death Rate ◽  
Birth Rate ◽  
Divorce Rate ◽  
Marriage Rate ◽  
Natural Increase ◽  
The Other ◽  
Moderate Increase ◽  
Basic Characteristics ◽  
Characteristics Development

The article aims to analyze the development of the basic characteristics of the demographic dynamics in the CR in urban areas divided according to size in 1993−2004 and to express the changes in the development of the natural increase. Urban areas in the CR were divided into 3 groups according to their size (size-related groups): urban areas of up to 2 000 inhabitants − a country type, urban areas with 2 000 to 10 000 inhabitants − a transition type, urban areas with more than 10 000 inhabitants − towns. In 2004, there were 26% of inhabitants living in the country group, 20% in the transition group and 54% in towns. There was a decline in marriage rate in all the groups; in the country, with its higher level, the decline was more moderate. The divorce rate shows a moderate increase except 1999, when it dramatically fell thanks to the legislation. The divorce rate was the highest in towns and the lowest in the country. The birth rate continued its sharp decline in urban areas of all sizes during the first four years of the researched period, then it levelled off, and it has even been slightly rising in the last years. It was considerably lower in bigger towns than in the other two groups, which had practically an identical development. There was a kind of balance at the end of the period. The death rate was generally going down; it was the highest in the country areas, however, it was approximating the values in the other two groups. The dramatic fall of the natural increase levelled off and it also showed a moderate rise. Trends are expressed with polynomial functions. The article presents the characteristics development in graphs and the reasons for changes are being commented upon.

scholarly journals Pipe rolling plants as a target of economic security in Russia during the COVID-19 pandemic

2021 ◽  
Vol 17 (1) ◽  
pp. 126-149
Author(s):  
Tat'yana D. MALYUTINA
Keyword(s):  
Economic Security ◽  
The State ◽  
Theoretical Research ◽  
Tube Rolling ◽  
Pipe Rolling ◽  
Rolling Industry ◽  
Labor Resources ◽  
Favorable Conditions ◽  
The Impact

Subject. The article is an attempt to evaluate how the COVID-19 pandemic influences the economic development in Russia, illustrating the case of the tube rolling industry. Objectives. I examine and evaluate how adverse crisis implications of the COVID-19 pandemic could possibly be eliminated in the tube rolling industry, ensuring the economic security of Russia. Methods. The study involves methods of empirical and theoretical research, such as systems and empirical analysis, formal characterization, abstraction, observation, generalization, assessment, and partial methods of economic and statistical analysis. Results. I generally describe the economic situation during the COVID-19 pandemic, evaluate the impact of ties between the oil and tube rolling industries on the economic sovereignty and security of Russia, role of the tube rolling industry in the economic security of the State. I analyzed the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the goods circulation in the tube rolling industry and found probable implications of economic destruction for Russia due to the COVID-19 pandemic, and proposed possible solutions for the tube rolling industry. Conclusions and Relevance. The economic security of the tube rolling industry during the current pandemic is exposed to the destruction of foreign trade between countries exporting tube rolling products, price drop and a reduction in the consumption of energy resources worldwide, capital flight, a decrease in labor resources, slowing business activity and restricted transportation tube rolling products, growing uncertainty on the consumption of tube rolling products. The menacing threats can be eliminated given the State intervenes and regulates the Russian tube rolling industry so as to create favorable conditions for the beneficial economic operations.

scholarly journals Demographic Processes and Trends: The Case of Region Polimlje-Ibar

2015 ◽  
Vol 63 ◽  
pp. 17-29
Author(s):  
Goran Rajović ◽  
Jelisavka Bulatović
Keyword(s):  
Age Structure ◽  
Birth Rate ◽  
Elderly Population ◽  
The Elderly ◽  
Limiting Factor ◽  
Working Population ◽  
Demographic Situation ◽  
Active Population ◽  
Demographic Processes

This paper analyzes the contemporary demographic processes and trends in the case of the region Polimlje-Ibar. Population analyzed area is characterized by a steady decline in relation to the dynamics of the population Montenegro. Thus in 1948 the population of the region is seemed 26.8% of the population Montenegro and in 2003 19.0%. The age structure of the population the region Polimlje-Ibar, due to migration and reducing birth rate is changed and takes on unfavorable characteristics - reduces the proportion of younger, while increasing the share of the elderly population. In both cases deranged age structure has feedback influence on the movement of population (size reproductive contingent), but also to all other population structure (size of the working population, the active population, schools compulsory contingent relationship serving a), which are essential for the development of population and economic activity in the region. Despite significant changes in all demographic structure of the region Polimlje-Ibar, has the characteristics of ethnically very heterogeneous environment. The current demographic situation and future demographic processes that have determined the legality of long-term demographic inertia, has become a limiting factor in the overall economic and social development.

BIRTH RATE AND POTENTIAL MEASURES TO IMPROVE IT

2021 ◽  
Vol 67 (2) ◽  
pp. 10-10
Author(s):  
V.F. Kapitonov ◽  
◽  
S.Yu. Li-Gi-Ru ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Age Structure ◽  
Birth Rate ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Reproductive Age ◽  
Medical Documentation ◽  
Fertility Rates ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
Study Results ◽  
Labor Resources ◽  
High Share

Low birth rates resulting a natural decline in population and changes in its age structure, have a negative impact on the increasing shortage of labor resources in all areas of the national economy. At the same time, studies on family planning and family life values by a number of authors show that the main restraining factors of childbearing are social ones caused by a high demand for vocational education. Purpose: to assess dynamics in birth rate and factors affecting its level. Material and methods. According to the purpose of the study, 1985 parturient women were interviewed. The survey results were supplemented with data obtained through the analysis of medical documentation (individual card of the pregnant and puerperal No. 111/y). The study also used materials of the state statistics for the period 2013-2018. The following indicators were calculated: general and age-specific fertility rates, as well as special (F) and total fertility rates (Fsum). Results. The study results show that changes in the age structure of women of the fertile age and decreased age-specific fertility rates have a greater impact on indicators of the total and overall fertility rates than increase in the number of women of reproductive age. A high share of firstborn children (57.5%) born to women aged over 25 indicates a postponement of childbearing to a later age and increase in the average age of primiparous. A high share of primiparous and first-time pregnant women (88.6% and 81.3%, respectively) with higher-than-secondary education in the overall structure of puerperal suggests influence of education on the decision to postpone childbearing. Conclusion. The postponement of childbearing is influenced by a complex of factors, mainly of a socio-economic nature, as evidenced by the sociological survey of puerperal. Development of appropriate socio-economic conditions during the period of education and formation of a young family, will contribute to changes in the fertility age pattern, which is confirmed by the analysis of the responses and suggestions received from the survey respondents.

scholarly journals Demographic potential of the Republic of Karakalpakstan

POPULATION ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 23 (3) ◽  
pp. 145-154
Author(s):  
Shoira Kh. Djumabaeva
Keyword(s):  
Crude Birth Rate ◽  
Divorce Rate ◽  
Marriage Rate ◽  
Women's Participation ◽  
Unwanted Pregnancies ◽  
Demographic Processes ◽  
The Republic ◽  
Public Production ◽  
And Migration ◽  
The Impact

This article analyzes dynamics in the population size and composition, natural growth, fertility, mortality, marriage, divorce, and migration in one of the Uzbekistan regions — the Republic of Karakalpakstan. In recent years there has been observed a decrease in the natural population growth, although it remains relatively high. Analysis of the dynamics in fertility shows that in Karakalpakstan over the years of independence the crude birth rate has significantly decreased. The changing attitude of women to family size is closely related to the changes in their role in society and in family — expanding women's participation in public production, their raising awareness and wide use of various modern methods to prevent unwanted pregnancies. This is the main factor in the transition of young people from large families to small and medium-sized families. Mortality rate reflects the health status of population. Although the healthcare system was developing over the years of independence, the incidence of various diseases has increased. As a result, the infant, child and maternal mortality rates remain relatively high. In terms of infant mortality, Karakalpakstan takes one of the leading places in Uzbekistan. This can be partly explained by the poor environmental situation. The number of registered marriages and divorces also affects the demographic processes. Over the years of independence, the marriage rate has decreased, and the divorce rate has increased. The decline in the marriage rate is due to changes in the demographic structure of the country's population. The article also analyzes the dynamics of migration processes since independence. In particular, it shows high proportion of departures, negative migration balance, intensive external migration. The migration process is a result of the impact of various factors and causes. Among the reasons that encourage people to move from one place to another, there are emphasized socioeconomic factors.

scholarly journals TRENDS AND DETERMINANTS OF DEMOGRAPHIC PROCESSES IN RUSSIA

2021 ◽  
pp. 61-69
Author(s):  
E. N. Grishina ◽  
I. P. Lapteva
Keyword(s):  
Birth Rate ◽  
Population Aging ◽  
Planning Method ◽  
Necessary Condition ◽  
Efficiency Coefficient ◽  
Population Forecast ◽  
Experimental Planning ◽  
Demographic Processes ◽  
The Impact

The article substantiates the need to identify trends in the development of processes demographic in individual countries and regions. The analysis of the determination of demographic processes is a necessary condition for the development of an effective demographic policy. The authors studied the dynamics of the population of the planet as whole, Europe, and Russia over the past 50 years. The assessment of the degree of influence of the measures taken in certain countries of the world on the demographic situation is given. The article deals with both methodological issues of studying the determination of demographic processes, and the results of research based on statistical information. Much attention is paid to the issues of determining the birth rate and mortality. An assessment of the impact of material payments on the birth rate is given. At the same time, the issues of determining migration processes and population aging are not left without attention. To analyze the causes of population migration in the region, the experimental planning method was used. The use of this method allowed us to identify the factors that affect migration processes and to assess the degree of influence of each of them on the level of the migration efficiency coefficient. The study showed the possibility of using the planning method in the study of socio-economic processes. The authors consider three variants of the population forecast of the Russian Federation until 2035, proposed by Rosstat, and assessed possible options for their implementation.

Factors predicting the US birth rate

2016 ◽  
Vol 43 (3) ◽  
pp. 432-446 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hamid Baghestani ◽  
Michael Malcolm
Keyword(s):  
Birth Rate ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Marriage Rate ◽  
Recursive Estimation ◽  
Predictive Information ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Macroeconomic Conditions ◽  
Marriage Rates ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Impact

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to take a forecasting approach to examine the relationship between the US birth rate, marriage rate, and economic conditions (measured by both realized unemployment and expected unemployment). The expectation data come from the Michigan Surveys of Consumers. Design/methodology/approach – Utilizing monthly data, the authors first specify a univariate and three augmented autoregressive integrated moving average forecasting models for 1975-2001. Second, the authors use recursive estimation to generate multi-period forecasts of the birth rate for 2002-2008. Third, the authors employ standard evaluation methods to compare the predictive information content of the forecasts. Findings – First, the birth rate is pro-cyclical. Second, the marriage rate contains useful predictive information for the birth rate. Third, controlling for past information in the birth and marriage rates, both realized and expected unemployment embody useful information for predicting the birth rate. Fourth, expected unemployment is a more informative indicator than realized unemployment. Practical implications – The finding that the birth rate is pro-cyclical emphasizes the importance of economic stability in promoting childbearing, and the authors suggest counter-cyclical macroeconomic policy to shield families from major shocks. A stable economy, and especially one where families are optimistic about the future, promotes childbearing. The results also empower policymakers to analyze systematically the impact of changes to the structure of marriage on childbearing. Originality/value – This appears to be the first study that utilizes a forecasting approach to better understand the complex relationships between childbearing, marriage, and macroeconomic conditions.

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