scholarly journals FORMATION OF PROCEDURES FOR IMPLEMENTATION OF THE CONTROL ALGORITHM OF EXPERT-STATISTICAL METHODS OF EVALUATION OF OPERATIONAL POSSIBILITIES OF TERRITORIAL DYSIDES

2020 ◽  
Vol 3 (156) ◽  
pp. 180-187
Author(s):  
O. Burmenko ◽  
O. Soshinskiy ◽  
R. Shevchenko
Keyword(s):  
Statistical Methods ◽  
Control Algorithm ◽  
Emergency Situation ◽  
Statistical Technique ◽  
Emergency Rescue ◽  
Effective Application ◽  
Operational Capabilities ◽  
Functional Efficiency ◽  
Natural Man ◽  
Operational Potential

The problem of formation of procedures of expert-statistical technique of estimation of operational possibili-ties of territorial divisions of the SES of Ukraine was considered in the work. Its relevance is determined by the ever-increasing level of danger of natural, man-made, social and military nature, which requires constant com-prehensive measures aimed at improving the functional efficiency of the Civil Service of Ukraine for Emergencies. Therefore, the purpose of the study was to form a set of procedures for the implementation of the control al-gorithm of expert-statistical methods for assessing the operational capabilities of emergency rescue units of terri-torial subordination. To ensure this goal, the following interrelated tasks were solved: generalized, classified and defined the se-quence and scheme of application of procedures for implementing the control algorithm of expert-statistical methodology; developed recommendations for the use of certain groups of procedures with the aim of the possibil-ity of effective application of expert-statistical methods for assessing operational potential; Preliminary calcula-tions were made to optimize the number of personnel of emergency rescue units of the territorial subordination of the SES of Ukraine. The result of the study was the solution of the problem, namely the formation of a logical sequence of appli-cation of the control algorithm of expert-statistical methods for assessing the operational potential of the territo-rial rescue units of the SES of Ukraine. The classification, the sequence and the scheme of application of the I-III group of procedures of realization of the control algorithm of the expert-statistical technique of an estimation of operational possibilities of emer-gency rescue divisions are carried out. Developed practical recommendations for the use of procedures of different groups, which in combination with previously obtained results suggests the possibility of effective application of expert-statistical methods for assessing operational capacity and optimization measures to increase the ability of rescue units to deal with emergencies of natural and man-made nature. Preliminary results of calculations on the optimization of the number of personnel of emergency rescue units allowed, justifiably, to recommend a gradual increase in the number of personnel, taking into account the region-al nature of natural and man-made hazards. Keywords: emergency situation, operational potential, operational capability, expert-statistical methodolo-gy, procedure.

Assessment of classification and development scenarios of aviation accidents

2020 ◽  
Vol 89 ◽  
pp. 86-97
Author(s):  
V. А. Sednev ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Emergency Situation ◽  
Aviation Fuel ◽  
Impact Factors ◽  
Research Information ◽  
Complex Situation ◽  
Emergency Rescue ◽  
Emergency Situations ◽  
Development Scenarios ◽  
Emergency Events ◽  
The Impact

Introduction. The most dangerous emergency situation at the airport is an aviation accident with human victims – a plane crash. It can occur on the territory of the airport, in its vicinity, as a result of takeoff or landing of an aircraft. About 80 % of accidents occur at the stages of takeoff, altitude, and approach. A complex situation can develop as a result of mixed types of emergency situations, such as: a collision of several aircrafts while moving along the runway, a collision in the air; a collision of an aircraft with an object of the airport infrastructure or fuel-filling complex. Due to large amount of aviation fuel in the wings of aircraft during destruction and shock loads, a fire, for example, begins outside the aircraft, but spreads inside after 1-2 minutes. Survival of people after 5 minutes of being in these conditions is unlikely. The impact factors associated with the destruction of the object of the collision are added to the damage to the aircraft. The airport emergency rescue forces are not enough to save people in these conditions. Therefore, on the basis of the study of the characteristics and consequences of aviation events and the tasks of emergency and rescue units, scenarios of the development of the situation in emergency situations and other factors influencing the organization of rescue operations have been established. The purpose of the study is to improve the efficiency of planning, organizing and conducting emergency rescue operations at the airport by identifying and eliminating negative factors that affect their organization, as well as shortcomings in the management system of forces and means when responding to emergency events on the territory of the airport. Research methods. General scientific and special methods of scientific knowledge were used To obtain the results – analysis, synthesis, generalization, which were based on the general principles of systems theory, operations research, information theory. The results of the study. Scenarios for the development of the situation in emergency situations at the airport, features of the organization of emergency and fire protection of the airport, shortcomings in the system of management of forces and means in response to emergency events are established; the initial data that are the basis for improving measures to protect people and objects of the airport complex are substantiated. Conclusion. Taking into account the provisions considered will allow managers to effectively solve problems of saving peoples’ lives and protecting objects on the territory of the airport. The obtained conclusions are the basis for the development of a methodology for justifying the forces and means to perform emergency rescue operations in an emergency situation at the airport. Key words: airport, emergency, aviation event, consequences, tasks of rescue units, organization, management.

scholarly journals DEVELOPMENT OF THE CONTROL ALGORITHM OF THE METHODOLOGY OF EMERGENCY PREVENTION ON LANDFILL WITH LIQUIDATION ENERGY-INTENSIVE TECHNOLOGICAL EQUIPMENT

2020 ◽  
Vol 3 (156) ◽  
pp. 188-194
Author(s):  
N. Rashkevich
Keyword(s):  
Solid Waste ◽  
Control Algorithm ◽  
Emergency Situation ◽  
Loss Of Stability ◽  
Technological Equipment ◽  
Practical Application ◽  
Physical Conditions ◽  
Current Trends ◽  
Solid Waste Landfills ◽  
Cascade Type

Landfills taking into account current trends in the placement of innovative liquidation technologies on their territory with a variety of energy-intensive technological equipment pose an additional technogenic danger. This requires a set of measures to prevent emergencies of the cascade type of distribution, due to the shift of the slope of the waste masses with the subsequent explosion of biogas. Analysis of existing approaches to modeling the conditions of solid waste landfills proves the lack of comprehensive studies to assess the effectiveness of solid waste landfills in the case of the introduction of additional technological energy-intensive technological equipment. In the course of the work the author considers the physical conditions of emergency prevention at the landfill in the conditions of a separate task of involving liquidation energy-intensive technological equipment. Depending on the location of the specified equipment in relation to the landfill, emergencies of cascade type may occur due to the shift of waste masses with the subsequent explosion of biogas. In the course of the work the author developed a control algorithm for the implementation of a mathematical model of cascade type emergency prevention at solid waste landfills with liquidation energy-intensive technological equipment due to loss of stability of the slope of the waste array to landslide followed by biogas explosion. The control algorithm consists of 18 analytical blocks, which are located on two levels and are interconnected by direct and feedback. In order to further practical application of the control algorithm, it is necessary to develop an appropriate methodology, the implementation of which should effectively counteract the emergency situation with priority consequences, such as the number of victims, the number of deaths, the number of people with impaired living conditions. Keywords: landfill, emergency prevention, liquidation energy-intensive technological equipment, explosion, landslide

Characterizing Driver Trust in Vehicle Control Algorithm Parameters

2018 ◽  
Vol 62 (1) ◽  
pp. 1821-1825 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joshua Domeyer ◽  
Vindhya Venkatraman ◽  
Morgan Price ◽  
John D Lee
Keyword(s):  
Statistical Methods ◽  
User Interfaces ◽  
Performance Feedback ◽  
Control Algorithm ◽  
Trust Model ◽  
Steering Wheel ◽  
Lateral Movement ◽  
Auditory Displays ◽  
Lane Position ◽  
Vehicle Automation

Human factors research in vehicle automation has focused on user interfaces such as performance feedback through visual and auditory displays (Blanco et al., 2015). Another approach is to use vehicle dynamics and vibrations as communicative tools for guiding attention (e.g., Morando, Victor, & Dozza, 2016; Walker, Stanton, & Young, 2006; Wiese & Lee, 2007). In our previous study (Price, Venkatraman, Gibson, Lee, & Mutlu, 2016), we showed that the steering wheel deadband, or lateral movement of the vehicle while maintaining lane position, was negatively associated with trust—more lateral movement led to less trust in the algorithm. The present study extends these findings by using Bayesian statistical methods with new control algorithm data. Although the inclusion of additional algorithm characteristics did not improve the trust model, the use of Bayesian statistical methods provides a useful tool to incorporate prior knowledge into an analysis.

scholarly journals The System Approach and Problems of Modeling Natural-Technogenic Safety

2019 ◽  
pp. 157-165
Author(s):  
Yakub Dadaev ◽  
Samart Hazhmuradova
Keyword(s):  
Complex System ◽  
Social Responsibility ◽  
System Approach ◽  
System Analysis ◽  
Emergency Situation ◽  
Safety Factors ◽  
System Operation ◽  
Natural Man ◽  
Methodological Principles ◽  
Anthropogenic Threats

The paper substantiates the necessity of using the system analysis as an effective tool for studying security problems, in particular the problems of ensuring natural and man-made safety, in the study of natural and anthropogenic threats. The article shows the interrelation and interdependence of natural and man-made safety factors, which is confirmed at the fundamental level today. The article identifies the main types of natural- anthropogenic hazards, such as those of natural, man-made, social character. To study the problems of natural and man-made safety, the model of an ecological-technogenic system is proposed, which adequately reflects the main processes that determine the problems of natural and man-made safety; the specificity of the system approach to problems of natural and man-made safety is determined. This model allows us to classify the risks of the complex system operation. The article, using the methodology of system analysis, highlights the most important methodological principles to be followed when exploring ecological and man-made systems as well. They are: the principle of optimal simplicity, the principle of social responsibility, the principle of interdisciplinarity of the ecological-technogenic system, the principle of objectivity, the principle of hierarchy of goals, the principle of values and “economic realism”, the principle of analysing of constantly developing systems, the principle of system synthesis. The author formulates the main stages of the system analysis of natural and technological safety problems. The author concludes that developing the fundamentals of risk-based analysis of emergency situation consequences requires a special attention.

Regulatory and technical support of quality management tools and methods

2021 ◽  
pp. 37-41
Author(s):  
T.P. Scharaschkina ◽  
◽  
T.V. Glukhova ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Quality Management ◽  
Statistical Methods ◽  
Iso 9000 ◽  
National Standards ◽  
Specific Production ◽  
Management Tools ◽  
Effective Application ◽  
Quality Of Products ◽  
Tools And Methods

Improving the quality of products and processes in enterprises and organizations of various fields of activity is provided by various methods of quality management. A special place in all the variety of tools and methods of quality management is occupied by statistical methods. Various international and national standards ensure the effective application of quality management tools and methods. The requirements and recommendations for the application of these methods are contained both in the ISO 9000 MS and in numerous standards in the field of statistical methods. Since a large number of such standards have been developed to date, it is necessary to systematize them. Based on this, all standards in the field of statistical methods can be classified according to the type of activity in which they are applicable. Such a systematization of standards in the field of statistical methods will make it possible to use them more effectively for solving specific production tasks.

scholarly journals Production of Non-Infective Particles among Influenza Viruses: Do Changes in Virulence Accompany the von Magnus phenomenon?

1955 ◽  
Vol 53 (3) ◽  
pp. 276-296 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Fazekas de St Groth ◽  
P. A. P. Moran
Keyword(s):  
Statistical Methods ◽  
Statistical Technique ◽  
Influenza Viruses ◽  
The Other ◽  
Infective Virus ◽  
Non Parametric

SummaryTwo new statistical methods—one parametric, the other non-parametric—are developed to compare the slopes of quantal infectivity curves.Ten influenza strains were examined with the aid of these tests, and the results show that virus yielded by the von Magnus phenomenon (i.e. containing ‘incomplete’ particles) and standard infective virus do not differ in the slope of their infectivity curves.It is concluded that the von Magnus phenomenon yields a mixture of infective and non-infective particles; on this evidence Fulton's suggestion of uniformly changed virulence is untenable.I am greatly indebted to Prof. P. A. P. Moran for helpful discussions of theory, and frequent corrections of statistical technique.

Improving the security at the facilities of the airport complex in case of an emergency and carrying out emergency rescue operations

2020 ◽  
Vol 90 ◽  
pp. 49-61
Author(s):  
V. A. Sednev ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Emergency Situation ◽  
Economic Assessment ◽  
Organization Management ◽  
Emergency Rescue ◽  
Plane Crash ◽  
Fire Extinguishing ◽  
Emergency Event ◽  
Timely Response ◽  
Airport Infrastructure ◽  
The Impact

Introduction. The most dangerous emergency situation at the airport is an accident with human casualties, that is, a plane crash. It can occur on the territory of the airport, in its vicinity, as a result of take-off or landing of an aircraft. The consequences of aviation emergencies show that when a plane crash occurs in the area of responsibility of the airport, there is a death of passengers in 85 % of cases. At the same time, it is possible to increase the survival rate of people with a timely response to a plane crash. However, if an airport infrastructure facility may be affected in a significant way as a result of an emergency, the work to eliminate the consequences of the initial emergency event is supplemented by work on the new situation that has arisen. At the same time, a characteristic feature of an aviation emergency is a large number of options for the development of the situation and actions. This requires constant adjustment of measures to ensure the safety of the airport complex, the protection of passengers (people) and infrastructure within the airport, as well as the organization of its emergency and fire protection. The purpose of the study is to improve the efficiency of planning, organizing and conducting individual activities and their complex for the protection of people and infrastructure in an emergency situation at the airport, and in general, organizing emergency rescue operations at the airport complex facilities in an emergency. Research methods. To obtain the results, we used general scientific and special methods of scientific knowledge, namely, analysis, synthesis, generalization, which were based on the general provisions of systems theory, operations research, and information theory. The results of the study. Proposals for organizing fire-fighting and emergency rescue operations at airport infrastructure facilities, safety requirements for service, fire extinguishing and emergency rescue operations at the airport, and reducing the impact of damaging factors of an emergency situation at the airport are substantiated, as well as an economic assessment of the consequences of safety violations and flight regularity. Conclusion. Taking into account the provisions reviewed will generally improve security management of the airport complex, and additional activities will enable better management of emergency rescue forces and facilities. Key words: airport, danger, emergency, consequences, tasks of emergency rescue units, organization, management.

scholarly journals STRUCTURAL-LOGICAL MODEL OF EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OF THE REGIONAL LEVEL IN THE CONDITIONS OF LIMITED OPERATIONAL POSSIBILITIES OF EMERGENCIES OF EMERGENCIES

2020 ◽  
Vol 4 (157) ◽  
pp. 91-96
Author(s):  
V. Andronov ◽  
O. Burmenko ◽  
О. Soshinskiy ◽  
R. Shevchenko
Keyword(s):  
Emergency Management ◽  
Civil Defense ◽  
Regional Level ◽  
Practical Significance ◽  
Management Decisions ◽  
Logical Model ◽  
Emergency Rescue ◽  
Operational Capabilities ◽  
Control Circuits ◽  
Operational Capacity

The problem of formation of structural-logical model of emergency management of regional level in the conditions of limited operational possibilities of emergency rescue divisions is considered in the work. The analysis of the current state of the issue of forecasting the effectiveness of emergency rescue units allowed to identify the existing problem in the field of civil defense, namely the lack of adequate mathematical apparatus that would form short-term and long-term forecasts of the dynamics of operational capacity and operational capacity of rescue units based on constantly changing information on the number and quality of regional hazards. The authors believe that this issue can be solved by forming a comprehensive expert-statistical methodology, which in turn is based on the modern idea of the emergency management process in a complex natural-technogenic-social transformations. The study examines the sequence of work on management decisions in terms of limited operational capabilities and formed a range of functional limitations that allows to clearly define the information field of the structural-logical model of emergency management and parameterize direct and feedback within the latter. Structural and logical model of emergency management at the regional level in terms of limited operational capabilities of emergency rescue units, consists of two control circuits: general circuit (sufficient) and additional (limited) circuit, which operates in case of limited operational capabilities of emergency rescue units. It consists of eight blocks, namely: establishing the fact of the existence of limitations of operational capabilities of rescue units, clarification and assessment of the situation in the emergency zone, preparation of management decisions, preparation of proposals for additional forces, application of the latest methods of operational capacity funds, organization of return of additional forces and means to the cities of permanent deployment. The practical significance of the results is the ability to develop, based on the existing structural and logical model of emergency management at the regional level in terms of limited operational capabilities of rescue units, a method of calculating operational capacity and operational capacity of the territorial unit, based on existing and forecast potential levels, man-made, social and military nature and take into account their interaction. Keywords: emergency situation, operational potential, operational ability, structural-logical model, emergency management.

scholarly journals CRITERIA OF ACTUALITY OF EQUIPMENT IN SOLVING OF THE PROBLEM OF COMPLETING OF EMERGENCY AND RESCUE EQUIPMENT IN THE CONDITIONS OF UNCERTAINTY

2021 ◽  
pp. 70-76
Author(s):  
Vasyl Kryshtal ◽  
Vitaliy Snytyuk ◽  
Dmytro Fedorenko
Keyword(s):  
Sequential Analysis ◽  
Emergency Situation ◽  
Analytic Hierarchy ◽  
Emergency Rescue ◽  
Average Value ◽  
Decision Making Processes ◽  
The Cost ◽  
Hierarchy Process ◽  
Element Base ◽  
Responsible Person

The problem of rescue equipment compilation was analyzed, which showed such features as the existing limited financial resources, a significant increase in the capacity of the element base, decision making processes based solely on the experience and intuition of those responsible person was carried out. It is shown that the previously proposed solutions were based on the cost of equipment, its reliability, functionality and capacity, while the aspect of its applicability or relevance was ignored. Taken into account the significant number of potential elements of equipment that may be included in the kit, limitations that will reduce the number of possible variants based on the method of sequential analysis of variants are proposed. It is proposed to determine the priority of equipment elements of a certain class using the method of analytic hierarchy process on the prioritization of criteria and procedures for determining the competence of experts. Since the task of compilation is multi-criteria, it is proposed to include the criterion of relevance in the criteria for determining the optimal kit. Models of equipment relevance indicators are constructed, as well as the relevance rate of the equipment element is determined and a model to determine the relevance rate of the set of emergency rescue equipment for a certain emergency situation is developed. It is proposed to calculate the total relevance rate of the equipment set for all emergencies as the average value of the relevance rate of the kit for each emergency, provided they are equivalent, or as a weighted value otherwise. Numerical modeling based on the developed algorithm allowed to draw conclusions about the relevance and, as a consequence, the priority of equipment elements, as well as to assess the degree of provision of rescue unit with rescue equipment in various emergencies

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