scholarly journals Measuring Metrics of Climate Change and Its Implication on the Endangered Mammal Conservation in the Leuser Ecosystem

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Aryo Adhi Condro ◽  
Lilik Budi Prasetyo ◽  
Siti Badriyah Rushayati ◽  
I Putu Santikayasa ◽  
Entang Iskandar
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Biodiversity Conservation ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Anthropogenic Activities ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Conservation Strategies ◽  
Mean Annual Temperature ◽  
Mammal Species ◽  
Change Metrics

The Leuser Ecosystem is one of the essential landscapes in the world for biodiversity conservation and ecosystem services. However, the Leuser Ecosystem has suffered many threats from anthropogenic activities and changing climate. Climate change is the greatest challenge to global biodiversity conservation. Efforts should be made to elaborate climatic change metrics toward biological conservation practices. Herein, we present several climate change metrics to support conservation management toward mammal species in the Leuser Ecosystem. We used a 30-year climate of mean annual temperature, annual precipitation, and the BIOCLIM data to capture the current climatic conditions. For the future climate (2050), we retrieved three downscaled general circulation models for the business-as-usual scenario of shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP585). We calculated the dissimilarities of the current and 2050 climatic conditions using the standardized Euclidean distance (SED). To capture the probability of climate extremes in each period (i.e., current and future conditions), we calculated the 5th and 95th percentiles of the distributions of monthly temperature and precipitation, respectively, in the current and future conditions. Furthermore, we calculated forward and backward climate velocities based on the mean annual temperature. These metrics can be useful inferences about species conservation. Our results indicate that almost all of the endangered mammals in the Leuser Ecosystem will occur in the area with threats to local populations and sites. Different conservation strategies should be performed in the areas likely to present different threats toward mammal species. Habitat restoration and long-term population monitoring are needed to support conservation in this mega biodiversity region.

scholarly journals A Simplistic Approach for Assessing Hydroclimatic Vulnerability of Lakes and Reservoirs with Regulated Superficial Outflow

Hydrology ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 6 (3) ◽  
pp. 61 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kleoniki Demertzi ◽  
Dimitris Papadimos ◽  
Vassilis Aschonitis ◽  
Dimitris Papamichail
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Drainage Basin ◽  
Management Strategies ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Modified Model ◽  
Natural Lakes ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Impact

This study proposes a simplistic model for assessing the hydroclimatic vulnerability of lakes/reservoirs (LRs) that preserve their steady-state conditions based on regulated superficial discharge (Qd) out of the LR drainage basin. The model is a modification of the Bracht-Flyr et al. method that was initially proposed for natural lakes in closed basins with no superficial discharge outside the basin (Qd = 0) and under water-limited environmental conditions {mean annual ratio of potential/reference evapotranspiration (ETo) versus rainfall (P) greater than 1}. In the proposed modified approach, an additional Qd function is included. The modified model is applied using as a case study the Oreastiada Lake, which is located inside the Kastoria basin in Greece. Six years of observed data of P, ETo, Qd, and lake topography were used to calibrate the modified model based on the current conditions. The calibrated model was also used to assess the future lake conditions based on the future climatic projections (mean conditions of 2061-2080) derived by 19 general circulation models (GCMs) for three cases of climate change (three cases of Representative Concentration Pathways: RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). The modified method can be used as a diagnostic tool in water-limited environments for analyzing the superficial discharge changes of LRs under different climatic conditions and to support the design of new management strategies for mitigating the impact of climate change on (a) flooding conditions, (b) hydroelectric production, (c) irrigation/industrial/domestic use and (d) minimum ecological flows to downstream rivers.

scholarly journals Risk analysis of climate change on coffee nematodes and leaf miner in Brazil

2008 ◽  
Vol 43 (2) ◽  
pp. 187-194 ◽  
Author(s):  
Raquel Ghini ◽  
Emília Hamada ◽  
Mário José Pedro Júnior ◽  
José Antonio Marengo ◽  
Renata Ribeiro do Valle Gonçalves
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Management Practices ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Leaf Miner ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Distribution Maps ◽  
Distribution Centre ◽  
Disease Epidemics

The objective of this work was to assess the potential impact of climate change on the spatial distribution of coffee nematodes (races of Meloidogyne incognita) and leaf miner (Leucoptera coffeella), using a Geographic Information System. Assessment of the impacts of climate change on pest infestations and disease epidemics in crops is needed as a basis for revising management practices to minimize crop losses as climatic conditions shift. Future scenarios focused on the decades of the 2020's, 2050's, and 2080's (scenarios A2 and B2) were obtained from five General Circulation Models available on Data Distribution Centre from Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Geographic distribution maps were prepared using models to predict the number of generations of the nematodes and leaf miner. Maps obtained in scenario A2 allowed prediction of an increased infestation of the nematode and of the pest, due to greater number of generations per month, than occurred under the climatological normal from 1961-1990. The number of generations also increased in the B2 scenario, but was lower than in the A2 scenario for both organisms.

scholarly journals Evaluating the effects of climate change on precipitation and temperature for Iran using RCP scenarios

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shahab Doulabian ◽  
Saeed Golian ◽  
Amirhossein Shadmehri Toosi ◽  
Conor Murphy
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Surface Air Temperature ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Skill Score ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Historical Period ◽  
Rcp Scenarios ◽  
Wide Range

Abstract Climate change has caused many changes in hydrologic processes and climatic conditions globally, while extreme events are likely to occur more frequently at a global scale with continued warming. Given the importance of general circulation models (GCMs) as an essential tool for climate studies at global/regional scales, together with the wide range of GCMs available, selecting appropriate models is of great importance. In this study, six synoptic weather stations were selected as representative of different climatic zones over Iran. Utilizing monthly data for 20 years (1981–2000), the outputs of 25 GCMs for surface air temperature (SAT) and precipitation were evaluated for the historical period. The root-mean-square error and skill score were chosen to evaluate the performance of GCMs in capturing observed seasonal climate. Finally, the outputs of selected GCMs for the three Representative Concentration Pathways emission scenarios (RCPs), namely RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5, were downscaled using the change factor method for each station for the period 2046–2065. Results indicate that SAT in all months is likely to increase for each region, while for precipitation, large uncertainties emerge, despite the selection of climate models that best capture the observed seasonal cycle. These results highlight the importance of selecting a representative ensemble of GCMs for assessing future hydro-climatic changes for Iran.

scholarly journals Lowland biotic attrition revisited: body size and variation among climate change ‘winners’ and ‘losers’

2017 ◽  
Vol 284 (1847) ◽  
pp. 20162335 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jedediah F. Brodie ◽  
Matthew Strimas-Mackey ◽  
Jayasilan Mohd-Azlan ◽  
Alys Granados ◽  
Henry Bernard ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Weather Station ◽  
Mammal Species ◽  
Temperature Changes ◽  
Temporal Niche ◽  
Global Biodiversity ◽  
Spatio Temporal ◽  
Response To Temperature

The responses of lowland tropical communities to climate change will critically influence global biodiversity but remain poorly understood. If species in these systems are unable to tolerate warming, the communities—currently the most diverse on Earth—may become depauperate (‘biotic attrition’). In response to temperature changes, animals can adjust their distribution in space or their activity in time, but these two components of the niche are seldom considered together. We assessed the spatio-temporal niches of rainforest mammal species in Borneo across gradients in elevation and temperature. Most species are not predicted to experience changes in spatio-temporal niche availability, even under pessimistic warming scenarios. Responses to temperature are not predictable by phylogeny but do appear to be trait-based, being much more variable in smaller-bodied taxa. General circulation models and weather station data suggest unprecedentedly high midday temperatures later in the century; predicted responses to this warming among small-bodied species range from 9% losses to 6% gains in spatio-temporal niche availability, while larger species have close to 0% predicted change. Body mass may therefore be a key ecological trait influencing the identity of climate change winners and losers. Mammal species composition will probably change in some areas as temperatures rise, but full-scale biotic attrition this century appears unlikely.

scholarly journals Do Downscaled General Circulation Models Reliably Simulate Historical Climatic Conditions?

2018 ◽  
Vol 22 (10) ◽  
pp. 1-22 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrew R. Bock ◽  
Lauren E. Hay ◽  
Gregory J. McCabe ◽  
Steven L. Markstrom ◽  
R. Dwight Atkinson
Keyword(s):  
General Circulation ◽  
Statistical Tests ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Low Flow ◽  
Balance Model ◽  
Monthly Precipitation ◽  
Significance Level ◽  
Ks Test

Abstract The accuracy of statistically downscaled (SD) general circulation model (GCM) simulations of monthly surface climate for historical conditions (1950–2005) was assessed for the conterminous United States (CONUS). The SD monthly precipitation (PPT) and temperature (TAVE) from 95 GCMs from phases 3 and 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3 and CMIP5) were used as inputs to a monthly water balance model (MWBM). Distributions of MWBM input (PPT and TAVE) and output [runoff (RUN)] variables derived from gridded station data (GSD) and historical SD climate were compared using the Kolmogorov–Smirnov (KS) test For all three variables considered, the KS test results showed that variables simulated using CMIP5 generally are more reliable than those derived from CMIP3, likely due to improvements in PPT simulations. At most locations across the CONUS, the largest differences between GSD and SD PPT and RUN occurred in the lowest part of the distributions (i.e., low-flow RUN and low-magnitude PPT). Results indicate that for the majority of the CONUS, there are downscaled GCMs that can reliably simulate historical climatic conditions. But, in some geographic locations, none of the SD GCMs replicated historical conditions for two of the three variables (PPT and RUN) based on the KS test, with a significance level of 0.05. In these locations, improved GCM simulations of PPT are needed to more reliably estimate components of the hydrologic cycle. Simple metrics and statistical tests, such as those described here, can provide an initial set of criteria to help simplify GCM selection.

scholarly journals Mid-Holocene climate change in Europe: a data-model comparison

2007 ◽  
Vol 3 (3) ◽  
pp. 499-512 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Brewer ◽  
J. Guiot ◽  
F. Torre
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Data Model ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Model Comparison ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Growing Degree Days ◽  
Degree Days ◽  
European Continent ◽  
Holocene Climate Change ◽  
Correct Location

Abstract. We present here a comparison between the outputs of 25 General Circulation Models run for the mid-Holocene period (6 ka BP) with a set of palaeoclimate reconstructions based on over 400 fossil pollen sequences distributed across the European continent. Three climate parameters were available (moisture availability, temperature of the coldest month and growing degree days), which were grouped together using cluster analysis to provide regions of homogenous climate change. Each model was then investigated to see if it reproduced 1) similar patterns of change and 2) the correct location of these regions. A fuzzy logic distance was used to compare the output of the model with the data, which allowed uncertainties from both the model and data to be taken into account. The models were compared by the magnitude and direction of climate change within the region as well as the spatial pattern of these changes. The majority of the models are grouped together, suggesting that they are becoming more consistent. A test against a set of zero anomalies (no climate change) shows that, although the models are unable to reproduce the exact patterns of change, they all produce the correct signs of change observed for the mid-Holocene.

scholarly journals Climatic suitability predictions for the cultivation of macadamia in Malawi using climate change scenarios.

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Emmanuel Junior Zuza ◽  
Yoseph Negusse Araya ◽  
Kadmiel Maseyk ◽  
Shonil A Bhagwat ◽  
Kaue de Sousa ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Food Sources ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Crop Species ◽  
Cascading Effects ◽  
Northern Regions ◽  
Rcp 8.5 ◽  
Model Approach

Climate change is altering suitable areas of crop species worldwide, with cascading effects on people and animals reliant upon those crop species as food sources. Macadamia is one of Malawi's most important and profitable crop species. Here, we used an ensemble model approach to determine the current distribution of macadamia producing areas across Malawi in relation to climate. For future distribution of suitable areas, we used the climate outputs of 17 general circulation models (GCM's) based on two climate change scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5). We found that the precipitation of the driest month and isothermality were the climatic variables that strongly influenced macadamia's suitability in Malawi. These climatic requirements were fulfilled across many areas in Malawi under the current conditions. Future projections indicated that large parts of Malawi's macadamia growing regions will remain suitable for macadamia, amounting to 36,910 km2 (39.1%) and 33,511 km2 (35.5%) of land based on RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, respectively. Of concern, suitable areas for macadamia production are predicted to shrink by −18% (17,015 km2) and −22% (20,414 km2) based on RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, respectively, with much of the suitability shifting northwards. Although a net loss of area suitable for macadamia is predicted, some currently unsuitable areas will become suitable in the future. Notably, suitable areas will increase in Malawi's central and northern regions, while the southern region will lose most of its suitable areas. In conclusion, our study provides critical evidence that climate change will significantly affect the macadamia sub-sector in Malawi. Therefore area-specific adaptation strategies are required to build resilience.

DATA ANALYTICS FOR CLIMATE AND ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCE

2021 ◽  
pp. 2150005
Author(s):  
STAVROS DEMERTZIS ◽  
VASILIKI DEMERTZI ◽  
KONSTANTINOS DEMERTZIS
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Air Pollution ◽  
Data Analytics ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Anthropogenic Activities ◽  
Atmospheric Science ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Rivers And Lakes ◽  
Atmospheric Concentrations

Global climate change has already had observable effects on the environment. Glaciers have shrunk, ice on rivers and lakes is breaking up earlier, plant and animal ranges have shifted and trees are flowering sooner. Under these conditions, air pollution is likely to reach levels that create undesirable living conditions. Anthropogenic activities, such as industry, release large amounts of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, increasing the atmospheric concentrations of these gases, thus significantly enhancing the greenhouse effect, which has the effect of increasing air heat and thus the speedup of climate change. The use of sophisticated data analysis methods to identify the causes of extreme pollutant values, the correlation of these values with the general climatic conditions and the general malfunctions that can be caused by prolonged air pollution can give a clear picture of current and future climate change. This paper presents a thorough study of preprocessing steps of data analytics and the appropriate big data architectures that are appropriate for the research study of Climate Change and Atmospheric Science.

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