Modeling the Spread of Porcine Reproductive and Respiratory Syndrome Among Pig Farms in Lira District of Northern Uganda

Porcine Reproductive and Respiratory Syndrome (PRRS) is a viral swine disease that causes reproductive failure in breeding sows and respiratory distress in growing pigs. The main objectives were to simulate the transmission patterns of PRRS in Uganda using North American Animal Disease Spread Model (NAADSM) and to evaluate the potential effect of prevention and control options such as vaccination and movement control. The median number of infectious farms at the end of 52 weeks for the baseline scenario was 735 (36.75% of the 2,000 farms). The best effects of vaccination were observed in scenarios 60% farm coverage and 80% farm coverage, which resulted in 82 and 98.2% reduction in the median number of infectious farms at the end of the simulation, respectively. Vaccination of all medium and large farms only (33% of the farms) resulted in a 71.2% decrease in the median number of infectious farms at the end of 52 weeks. Movement control (MC) results showed that the median number of infectious farms at the end of 52 weeks decreased by 21.6, 52.3, 79.4, and 92.4% for scenarios MC 20, MC 40, MC 60, and MC 80%, respectively. This study provides new insights to the government of Uganda on how PRRS can be controlled. The large and medium farms need to be prioritized for vaccination, which would be a feasible and effective way to limit the spread of PRRS in Uganda. Scavenging pigs should be confined at all times, whether in the presence or absence of any disease outbreaks.

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ASPEK HUKUM PELAKSANAAN VAKSINASI COVID-19 DI INDONESIA

Prosiding SENAPENMAS ◽

10.24912/psenapenmas.v0i0.15162 ◽

2021 ◽

pp. 1263

Author(s):

Stephanie PD ◽

Enjelina S ◽

Angelica MF ◽

Imelda Martinelli

Keyword(s):

Disease Outbreaks ◽

World Health ◽

Disease Spread ◽

Infectious Disease Outbreaks ◽

The People ◽

The World ◽

Presidential Decree ◽

The Government ◽

Health Organization ◽

The Right

The World Health Organization (WHO) defines the 2019-nCoV type of corona virus as a pandemic of a new type of disease spread throughout the world, this is not only a public health case, but will touch every sector. The COVID-19 (cov-19) pandemic has resulted in an emergency for the healthy condition of the Indonesian people, so President Joko Widodo has issued Presidential Decree No. 11/2020. In "procuring vaccines and implementing vaccinations for the prevention of the COVID-19 pandemic" President Joko Widodo stipulates Presidential Decree No. 14/2021. In choosing health facilities and infrastructure independently & responsibly, every human being has the right to choose according to his wishes, due to the pandemic conditions that concern the interests of the people and the state, so giving vaccinations is actually voluntary because emergency conditions can be forced. Although there is already a legal umbrella for Law No. 4/1984: "Infectious Disease Outbreaks" and Law No. 6/2018: "Health Quarantine", many in the field agree and vice versa on the implementation of vaccination in the community. The purpose of the study is to understand the nature of the administration of the corona vaccine according to the laws and regulations adopted and the factors that occur in society. Using a normative method with a qualitative approach. Giving vaccines to the community is forced. limited availability of vaccines; there are those who support there are those who are antipathy from the community regarding the implementation of vaccination; uneven distribution. The reason for the community's refusal to receive the Covid-19 vaccine is due to different trusts, this is supported by the lack of communication channels as well as the delivery of information that is not well targeted, the data on the type of vaccine is limited in information, the availability of the Covid-19 vaccine, as well as safe conditions. The government should fully support the Nusantara vaccine and the Merah Putih vaccine developed by Indonesian researchers. World Health Organizatioan (WHO) mendefinisikan Virus corona jenis Virus 2019-nCoV sebagai pandemi jenis penyebaran penyakit baru keseluruh dunia, hal ini bukan hanya kasus kesehatan masyarakat, tapi akan menyentuh setiap sektor. Pandemi covid-19(cov-19) mengakibatkan kedaruratan kondisi sehat khalayak Indonesia, sehingga Presiden Joko Widodo menetapkan KeppresNo.11/2020. Dalam “pengadaan vaksin dan pelaksanaan vaksinasi untuk penanggulangan pandemi covid-19” Presiden Joko widodo menetapkan Perpres No.14/2021. Dalam memilih sarana juga prasarana kesehatan secara mandiri & bertangggungjawab tiap manusia punya hak memilih sesuai dengan keinginannya, berhubung kondisi pandemi yang menyangkut kepentingan rakyat dan negara lebih diutamakan, jadi pemberian vaksinasi yang sebenaranya bersifat volunteer karena kondisi darurat bisa bersifat dipaksakan. Meskipun sudah ada payung hukum UU No.4/1984:”Wabah Penyakit Menular” serta UU No.6/2018:“Kekarantinaan Kesehatan”, tapi dilapangan banyak yang setuju dan sebaliknya pada pelaksanaan vaksinasi dimasyarakat. Tujuan penelitian untuk memahami sifat dari pemberian vaksin corona menurut peraturan perundangan yang dianut dan faktor- faktor yang terjadi di masyarakat. Memakai metode normatif dengan pendekatan kualitatif. Pemberian vaksin kepada masyarakat bersifat memaksa. keterbatasan ketersedian vaksin; ada yang mendukung ada yang antipati dari masyarakat terkait pelaksanaan vaksinasi; penyaluran yang tidak merata. Alasan penolakan masyarakat dalam menerima vaksin Covid-19 dikarenakan adanya trust yang berbeda, hal ini didukung kurangnya alur komunikasi juga cara penyampaian informasi yang kurang tepat sasaran, data jenis vaksin terbatas informasinya, ketersediaan vaksinCov-19, juga syarat aman. Pemerintah selayaknya mendukung penuh vaksin Nusantara dan vaksin Merah Putih yang dikembangkan para peneliti Indonesia.

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Basic Reproduction Number of Tuberculosis Spread Model in Lamongan With DOTS Strategy

JTAM | Jurnal Teori dan Aplikasi Matematika ◽

10.31764/jtam.v5i1.3696 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 5 (1) ◽

pp. 100

Author(s):

Aris Alfan ◽

Fitroh Resmi ◽

Nihaya Alivia Coraima Dewi

Keyword(s):

Mathematical Model ◽

Basic Reproduction Number ◽

Reproduction Number ◽

Disease Spread ◽

Tuberculosis Transmission ◽

Risk Of Death ◽

Short Course ◽

Spread Model ◽

Directly Observed Treatment ◽

The Government

Tuberculosis (TB) will be a serious threat if not handled quickly and appropriately. The relatively long treatment in time and the high risk of death is a challenge in controlling the spread of this disease. The DOTS (Directly Observed Treatment Short-course) strategy is considered capable of controlling the spread of TB because of the high success rate, reaching 91%. The mathematical model of the spread of TB has been widely studied to determine the potential for the spread of this disease in an area. The purpose of this study is to build a model of tuberculosis spread in Lamongan to determine the rate of its spread and to predict whether it will be endemic or not. Using disease spread mathematical model type SEITR, this research has examined based on 2018 and 2019 data from the Lamongan health office then simulates the result. The research begins with the construction of the model followed by a stability analysis of the model by determining the basic reproduction number ( ), which is simulated after the parameter approach was carried out. From the simulation results, the result shows that means that TB will not endemic in Lamongan. Besides, the results of the effect of parameter ω on I(t) were obtained, which concluded that seeking and treating active TB alone would only reduce infected individuals but not reduce the length of time TB spread. Identification of the effect of parameter φ on I(t) has also been carried out which results in the conclusion that more treatment for susceptible individuals, in addition to reducing the number of infected individuals, will also reduce the length of time TB spreads in that area. This result will be a good suggestion for the government to deal faster with tuberculosis transmission.

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Analyzing the roles of newspaper articles and tweets to help alleviate sudden physician absenteeism: case study of Takano Hospital in Fukushima in the long-term aftermath of the 2011 Japan’s triple disaster (Preprint)

10.2196/preprints.26114 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Akihiko Ozaki ◽

Yosuke Onoue ◽

Anju Murayama ◽

Taishi Tahara ◽

Yuki Senoo ◽

...

Keyword(s):

News Media ◽

Median Number ◽

Medical Doctor ◽

Fund Raising ◽

General Context ◽

Social Media Networks ◽

Chronological Change ◽

The Government ◽

Newspaper Articles

BACKGROUND Rural physician undersupply is a universal concern, leading to sudden physician absenteeism or unavailability on occasion. While media and social networking services may help mitigate these emergencies, information is lacking about their actual contribution in times of physician absenteeism. On December 30, 2016, the director and sole physician of Takano Hospital in Fukushima, Japan, died. The physician’s passing placed many hospitalized patients in danger. This sudden case of physician unavailability, named the Takano Hospital Crisis, provoked massive attention from the general public, in the media and on social media networks such as Twitter. OBJECTIVE The aim of this study was to analyze newspaper articles, tweets and Twitter accounts relating to Takano Hospital Crisis. METHODS Newspaper articles and tweets were searched for keywords associated with Takano Hospital Crisis and its former director between October 2016 and June 2017. We first evaluated the chronological change in the number of articles and tweets, and the number of characters and relevant keywords in the articles. Then tweets and influencers who were popular on the Twitter platform from December 30, 2016 to February 28, 2017, were categorized. RESULTS We assessed 151 newspaper articles and 67,006 tweets. The results show that number of newspaper articles and tweets steeply increased and then diminished within the first month of the incident. The median number of characters in newspapers articles was 436 and the most frequent keyword was medical doctor. There were 753 original tweets that were retweeted more than four times from December 30, 2016 to February 28, 2017. Of these, 245 (32.5%) expressed concern. Notable influencers were journalists, news media outlets, and healthcare professionals that helped with fund raising and providing clinical service in the hospital. CONCLUSIONS Twitter could temporarily function in cases of sudden physician absenteeism to attract volunteers and funding, however, this would not be a long-term solution. In a more general context, a long-term effort of supports from the hospitals themselves and the government will be required to manage the persistent state of physician absenteeism.

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Projecting demands for renal replacement therapy in the Northern Territory: a stochastic Markov model

Australian Health Review ◽

10.1071/ah16156 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 42 (4) ◽

pp. 380 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

Jiqiong You ◽

Yuejen Zhao ◽

Paul Lawton ◽

Steven Guthridge ◽

Stephen P. McDonald ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Renal Replacement Therapy ◽

Markov Model ◽

Replacement Therapy ◽

Management Practices ◽

Markov Models ◽

Self Care ◽

Potential Effect ◽

Northern Territory ◽

Baseline Scenario ◽

On Demand

Objective The aim of the present study was to evaluate the potential effects of different health intervention strategies on demand for renal replacement therapy (RRT) services in the Northern Territory (NT). Methods A Markov chain simulation model was developed to estimate demand for haemodialysis (HD) and kidney transplantation (Tx) over the next 10 years, based on RRT registry data between 2002 and 2013. Four policy-relevant scenarios were evaluated: (1) increased Tx; (2) increased self-care dialysis; (3) reduced incidence of end-stage kidney disease (ESKD); and (4) reduced mortality. Results There were 957 new cases of ESKD during the study period, with most patients being Indigenous people (85%). The median age was 50 years at onset and 57 years at death, 12 and 13 years younger respectively than Australian medians. The prevalence of RRT increased 5.6% annually, 20% higher than the national rate (4.7%). If current trends continue (baseline scenario), the demand for facility-based HD (FHD) would approach 100 000 treatments (95% confidence interval 75 000–121 000) in 2023, a 5% annual increase. Increasing Tx (0.3%), increasing self-care (5%) and reducing incidence (5%) each attenuate demand for FHD to ~70 000 annually by 2023. Conclusions The present study demonstrates the effects of changing service patterns to increase Tx, self-care and prevention, all of which will substantially attenuate the growth in FHD requirements in the NT. What is known about the topic? The burden of ESKD is projected to increase in the NT, with demand for FHD doubling every 15 years. Little is known about the potential effect of changes in health policy and clinical practice on demand. What does this paper add? This study assessed the usefulness of a stochastic Markov model to evaluate the effects of potential policy changes on FHD demand. What are the implications for practitioners? The scenarios simulated by the stochastic Markov models suggest that changes in current ESKD management practices would have a large effect on future demand for FHD.

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Sheep scab spatial distribution: the roles of transmission pathways

Parasites & Vectors ◽

10.1186/s13071-021-04850-y ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 14 (1) ◽

Author(s):

Emily Joanne Nixon ◽

Ellen Brooks-Pollock ◽

Richard Wall

Keyword(s):

Disease Transmission ◽

Movement Control ◽

Cost Effective ◽

Infected Sheep ◽

Disease Spread ◽

Psoroptes Ovis ◽

Long Distance ◽

Sheep Scab ◽

The Uk ◽

The Impact

Abstract Background Ovine psoroptic mange (sheep scab) is a highly pathogenic contagious infection caused by the mite Psoroptes ovis. Following 21 years in which scab was eradicated in the UK, it was inadvertently reintroduced in 1972 and, despite the implementation of a range of control methods, its prevalence increased steadily thereafter. Recent reports of resistance to macrocyclic lactone treatments may further exacerbate control problems. A better understanding of the factors that facilitate its transmission are required to allow improved management of this disease. Transmission of infection occurs within and between contiguous sheep farms via infected sheep-to-sheep or sheep–environment contact and through long-distance movements of infected sheep, such as through markets. Methods A stochastic metapopulation model was used to investigate the impact of different transmission routes on the spatial pattern of outbreaks. A range of model scenarios were considered following the initial infection of a cluster of highly connected contiguous farms. Results Scab spreads between clusters of neighbouring contiguous farms after introduction but when long-distance movements are excluded, infection then self-limits spatially at boundaries where farm connectivity is low. Inclusion of long-distance movements is required to generate the national patterns of disease spread observed. Conclusions Preventing the movement of scab infested sheep through sales and markets is essential for any national management programme. If effective movement control can be implemented, regional control in geographic areas where farm densities are high would allow more focussed cost-effective scab management. Graphical Abstract

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Integrating psychosocial variables and societal diversity in epidemic models for predicting COVID-19 transmission dynamics

10.1101/2020.08.12.20173252 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Viktor Jirsa ◽

Spase Petkoski ◽

Huifang Wang ◽

Marmaduke Woodman ◽

Jan Fousek ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Human Mobility ◽

Disease Spread ◽

Vulnerable Groups ◽

Psychosocial Variables ◽

Cross Sectional ◽

Societal Factors ◽

Spread Model ◽

Careful Handling ◽

Diverse Groups ◽

The Impact

During the current COVID-19 pandemic, governments must make decisions based on a variety of information including estimations of infection spread, health care capacity, economic and psychosocial considerations. The disparate validity of current short-term forecasts of these factors is a major challenge to governments. By causally linking an established epidemiological spread model with dynamically evolving psychosocial variables, using Bayesian inference we estimate the strength and direction of these interactions for German and Danish data of disease spread, human mobility, and psychosocial factors based on the serial cross-sectional COVID-19 Snapshot Monitoring (COSMO; N = 16,981). We demonstrate that the strength of cumulative influence of psychosocial variables on infection rates is of a similar magnitude as the influence of physical distancing. We further show that the efficacy of political interventions to contain the disease strongly depends on societal diversity, in particular group-specific sensitivity to affective risk perception. As a consequence, the model may assist in quantifying the effect and timing of interventions, forecasting future scenarios, and differentiating the impact on diverse groups as a function of their societal organization. Importantly, the careful handling of societal factors, including support to the more vulnerable groups, adds another direct instrument to the battery of political interventions fighting epidemic spread.

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Evaluation of the Nipah epidemic containment and multisectoral involvement in Kerala using an appropriate management framework

International Journal of Community Medicine and Public Health ◽

10.18203/2394-6040.ijcmph20203019 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 7 (7) ◽

pp. 2813

Author(s):

Asma A. Rahim ◽

Sujina C. Muthukutty ◽

Sabitha R. Jacob ◽

Rini Ravindran ◽

Jayakrishnan Thayyil ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Health Personnel ◽

Viral Infections ◽

Nipah Virus ◽

Disease Outbreaks ◽

State Level ◽

The State ◽

Contact Tracing ◽

Outbreak Response ◽

Management Framework ◽

The Government

Kozhikode district of North Kerala, India witnessed an outbreak of Nipah virus (NiV) in the month of May 2018. Two adjacent districts were affected leaving 17 patients dead out of the 19 confirmed. United Nations and WHO lauded the expeditious response of the state’s health system in the diagnosis and containment of the outbreak which was unprecedented. The authors being in the contact tracing and surveillance operation district team, had kept a record of timeline of events and actions at the state level, compiled the news clippings and tracked events. In the absence of an end‑of‑epidemic report for reference, these records served as a valuable tool for the present review. We used the Management science for health frame work tool (MSH framework) to evaluate the district and state coordinated actions which helped in curbing the outbreak. Though NiV outbreak in South India (2018) had similar epidemiological features to previous disease outbreaks, it stands out as the one to be detected and contained in a short span of time. As health personnel working in the government medical college of an affected district and directly involved in contact tracing operations and containment measures, exploring and sharing, what worked and how, in the context of multidisciplinary response and recovery attempts of the outbreak in the state may be beneficial to public health personnel and policy makers. This management framework may be replicated in the national and international context, particularly in South East Asian region under threat of emerging viral infections like COVID-19, lacking specific epidemic management frameworks for outbreak response and containment.

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A New Era of Epidemiology: Digital Epidemiology for Investigating the COVID-19 Outbreak in China

Journal of Medical Internet Research ◽

10.2196/21685 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 22 (9) ◽

pp. e21685

Author(s):

Zonglin He ◽

Casper J P Zhang ◽

Jian Huang ◽

Jingyan Zhai ◽

Shuang Zhou ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Public Health ◽

Information And Communication Technologies ◽

Ethical Issues ◽

Rapid Development ◽

Disease Outbreaks ◽

Face Mask ◽

Digital Data ◽

Disease Spread ◽

Health Measures ◽

Digital Epidemiology

A novel pneumonia-like coronavirus disease (COVID-19) caused by a novel coronavirus named SARS-CoV-2 has swept across China and the world. Public health measures that were effective in previous infection outbreaks (eg, wearing a face mask, quarantining) were implemented in this outbreak. Available multidimensional social network data that take advantage of the recent rapid development of information and communication technologies allow for an exploration of disease spread and control via a modernized epidemiological approach. By using spatiotemporal data and real-time information, we can provide more accurate estimates of disease spread patterns related to human activities and enable more efficient responses to the outbreak. Two real cases during the COVID-19 outbreak demonstrated the application of emerging technologies and digital data in monitoring human movements related to disease spread. Although the ethical issues related to using digital epidemiology are still under debate, the cases reported in this article may enable the identification of more effective public health measures, as well as future applications of such digitally directed epidemiological approaches in controlling infectious disease outbreaks, which offer an alternative and modern outlook on addressing the long-standing challenges in population health.

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Host size and proximity to diseased neighbours drive the spread of a coral disease outbreak in Hawai‘i

Proceedings of The Royal Society B Biological Sciences ◽

10.1098/rspb.2017.2265 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 285 (1870) ◽

pp. 20172265 ◽

Cited By ~ 4

Author(s):

Jamie M. Caldwell ◽

Megan J. Donahue ◽

C. Drew Harvell

Keyword(s):

Disease Risk ◽

Coral Disease ◽

Disease Outbreaks ◽

Disease Outbreak ◽

Host Size ◽

Disease Spread ◽

Wildlife Diseases ◽

Infectious Individual ◽

Force Of Infection ◽

Affected Tissue

Understanding how disease risk varies over time and across heterogeneous populations is critical for managing disease outbreaks, but this information is rarely known for wildlife diseases. Here, we demonstrate that variation in host and pathogen factors drive the direction, duration and intensity of a coral disease outbreak. We collected longitudinal health data for 200 coral colonies, and found that disease risk increased with host size and severity of diseased neighbours, and disease spread was highest among individuals between 5 and 20 m apart. Disease risk increased by 2% with every 10 cm increase in host size. Healthy colonies with severely diseased neighbours (greater than 75% affected tissue) were 1.6 times more likely to develop disease signs compared with colonies with moderately diseased neighbours (25–75% affected tissue). Force of infection ranged from 7 to 20 disease cases per 1000 colonies (mean = 15 cases per 1000 colonies). The effective reproductive ratio, or average number of secondary infections per infectious individual, ranged from 0.16 to 1.22. Probability of transmission depended strongly on proximity to diseased neighbours, which demonstrates that marine disease spread can be highly constrained within patch reefs.

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A Data Driven Change-point Epidemic Model for Assessing the Impact of Large Gathering and Subsequent Movement Control Order on COVID-19 Spread in Malaysia

10.1101/2020.11.20.20233890 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Sarat C. Dass ◽

Wai M. Kwok ◽

Gavin J. Gibson ◽

Balvinder S. Gill ◽

Bala M. Sundram ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Change Point ◽

Movement Control ◽

Disease Spread ◽

Time Period ◽

Before And After ◽

Quantitative Understanding ◽

Control Order ◽

Short Time ◽

The Impact ◽

Second Wave

AbstractThe second wave of COVID-19 in Malaysia is largely attributed to a mass gathering held in Sri Petaling between February 27, 2020 and March 1, 2020, which contributed to an exponential rise of COVID-19 cases in the country. Starting March 18, 2020, the Malaysian government introduced four consecutive phases of a Movement Control Order (MCO) to stem the spread of COVID-19. The MCO was implemented through various non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs). The reported number of cases reached its peak by the first week of April and then started to reduce, hence proving the effectiveness of the MCO. To gain a quantitative understanding of the effect of MCO on the dynamics of COVID-19, this paper develops a class of mathematical models to capture the disease spread before and after MCO implementation in Malaysia. A heterogeneous variant of the Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered (SEIR) model is developed with additional compartments for asymptomatic transmission. Further, a change-point is incorporated to model the before and after disease dynamics, and is inferred based on data. Related statistical analyses for inference are developed in a Bayesian framework and are able to provide quantitative assessments of (1) the impact of the Sri Petaling gathering, and (2) the extent of decreasing transmission during the MCO period. The analysis here also quantitatively demonstrates how quickly transmission rates fall under effective NPI implemention within a short time period.

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