scholarly journals Predicting Climate Change Impact on Water Productivity of Irrigated Rice in Malaysia Using FAO-AquaCrop Model

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (23) ◽  
pp. 11253
Author(s):  
Abdusslam A. Houma ◽  
Md Rowshon Kamal ◽  
Md Abdul Mojid ◽  
Mohamed Azwan Mohamed Zawawi ◽  
Balqis Mohamed Rehan
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Water Productivity ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Emission Scenarios ◽  
Crop Evapotranspiration ◽  
Management Scenarios ◽  
Management Options ◽  
Irrigated Rice ◽  
Aquacrop Model

Water productivity (WP) is a key indicator of agricultural water management, since it affects the quantity of water used for crop yield in various management scenarios. This study evaluated the WP of irrigated rice due to a changing climate in the Northwest Selangor Rice Irrigation Scheme (NSRIS) by using field experimental data and the FAO-AquaCrop Model. Pertinent soil, water, climate, and crop data were acquired by executing a field investigation during the off-season (dry season, January–April) and main season (wet season, July–October) in 2017. The AquaCrop 6.0 model was calibrated and validated using the measured data. A Climate-smart Decision Support System (CSDSS) with an ensemble of 10 Global Climate Models (GCMs) was used to downscale climate variables under RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5 emission scenarios during baseline (1976 to 2005) and future (2020 to 2099) periods. The AquaCrop model fairly predicted rice yields under field conditions with root-mean-square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), prediction error (PE) and index of agreement (d) between the observed and estimated yields of 0.173, 0.157, −0.31 to 5.4 and 0.78, respectively for the off-season; and 0.167, 0.127, −5.6 to 2.3 and 0.73, respectively for the main season. It predicted a 10% decrease in actual crop evapotranspiration (ETc) in both crop seasons in the future. The WP of rice based on total water input (WPIrr+RF), applied irrigation (WPIrr), and actual crop evapotranspiration (WPETc) will likely increase by 14–24%, 14–19%, and 17–29%, respectively under the three RCP emission scenarios in the off-season. The likely increase in WP for the corresponding base is 13–22%, 15–24%, and 14–25% in the main season. Various agronomic management options linked to WP will most likely become important in making crucial decisions to cope with the risk of impacts on climate change.

scholarly journals Climate change presents increased potential for very large fires in the contiguous United States

2015 ◽  
Vol 24 (7) ◽  
pp. 892 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. Barbero ◽  
J. T. Abatzoglou ◽  
N. K. Larkin ◽  
C. A. Kolden ◽  
B. Stocks
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Fire Suppression ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Atmospheric Conditions ◽  
Management Options ◽  
Absolute Increase ◽  
Southern Us ◽  
Large Fires

Very large fires (VLFs) have important implications for communities, ecosystems, air quality and fire suppression expenditures. VLFs over the contiguous US have been strongly linked with meteorological and climatological variability. Building on prior modelling of VLFs (>5000 ha), an ensemble of 17 global climate models were statistically downscaled over the US for climate experiments covering the historic and mid-21st-century periods to estimate potential changes in VLF occurrence arising from anthropogenic climate change. Increased VLF potential was projected across most historically fire-prone regions, with the largest absolute increase in the intermountain West and Northern California. Complementary to modelled increases in VLF potential were changes in the seasonality of atmospheric conditions conducive to VLFs, including an earlier onset across the southern US and more symmetric seasonal extension in the northern regions. These projections provide insights into regional and seasonal distribution of VLF potential under a changing climate, and serve as a basis for future strategic and tactical fire management options.

scholarly journals Net irrigation requirement under different climate scenarios using AquaCrop over Europe

2022 ◽  
Author(s):  
Louise Busschaert ◽  
Shannon de Roos ◽  
Wim Thiery ◽  
Dirk Raes ◽  
Gabriëlle J. M. De Lannoy
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Soil Moisture ◽  
Interannual Variability ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Crop Productivity ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Irrigation Requirement ◽  
Aquacrop Model ◽  
Far Future

Abstract. Global soil water availability is challenged by the effects of climate change and a growing population. On average 70 % of freshwater extraction is attributed to agriculture, and the demand is increasing. In this study, the effects of climate change on the evolution of the irrigation water requirement to sustain current crop productivity are assessed by using the FAO crop growth model AquaCrop version 6.1. The model is run at 0.5° lat × 0.5° lon resolution over the European mainland, assuming a general C3-type of crop, and forced by climate input data from the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project phase three (ISIMIP3). First, the performance of AquaCrop surface soil moisture (SSM) simulations using historical meteorological input from two ISIMIP3 forcing datasets is evaluated with satellite-based SSM estimates. When driven by ISIMIP3a reanalysis meteorology for the years 2011–2016, daily simulated SSM values have an unbiased root-mean-square difference of 0.08 and 0.06 m3m−3 with SSM retrievals from the Soil Moisture Ocean Salinity (SMOS) and Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) missions, respectively. When forced with ISIMIP3b meteorology from five Global Climate Models (GCM) for the years 2011–2020, the historical simulated SSM climatology closely agrees with the climatology of the reanalysis-driven AquaCrop SSM climatology as well as the satellite-based SSM climatologies. Second, the evaluated AquaCrop model is run to quantify the future irrigation requirement, for an ensemble of five GCMs and three different emission scenarios. The simulated net irrigation requirement (Inet) of the three summer months for a near and far future climate period (2031–2060 and 2071–2100) is compared to the baseline period of 1985–2014, to assess changes in the mean and interannual variability of the irrigation demand. Averaged over the continent and the model ensemble, the far future Inet is expected to increase by 67 mm year–1 (+30 %) under a high emission scenario Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) 3-7.0. Central and southern Europe are the most impacted with larger Inet increases. The interannual variability of Inet is likely to increase in northern and central Europe, whereas the variability is expected to decrease in southern regions. Under a high mitigation scenario (SSP1-2.6), the increase in Inet will stabilize around 40 mm year–1 towards the end of the century and interannual variability will still increase but to a smaller extent. The results emphasize a large uncertainty in the Inet projected by various GCMs.

scholarly journals Long-Term Rainfall Trends and Future Projections over Xijiang River Basin, China

2020 ◽  
Vol 2020 ◽  
pp. 1-18 ◽  
Author(s):  
Muhammad Touseef ◽  
Lihua Chen ◽  
Kaipeng Yang ◽  
Yunyao Chen
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Future Scenarios ◽  
Emission Scenarios ◽  
Xijiang River ◽  
The Xijiang River

Precipitation trend detection is vital for water resources development and decision support systems. This study predicts the climate change impacts on long-term precipitation trends. It deals with the analysis of observed historical (1960–2010) and arithmetic mean method in assembling precipitation from CMIP5 Global Climate Models (GCMs) datasets for a future period (2020–2099) under four emission scenarios. Daily precipitation data of 32 weather stations in the Xijiang River Basin were provided by National Meteorological Information Centre (NMIC) of the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) and Global Climate Models (GCMs) with all four emission scenarios statistically downscaled using Bias Correction Special Disaggregation (BCSD) and applied for bias correction via Climate Change Toolkit (CCT). Nonparametric Mann–Kendall test was applied for statistical significance trend analysis while the magnitude of the trends was determined by nonparametric Sen’s estimator method on a monthly scale to detect monotonic trends in annual and seasonal precipitation time series. The results showed a declined trend was observed for the past 50 years over the basin with negative values of MK test (Z) and Sen’s slope Q. Historical GCMs precipitation detected decreasing trends except for NoerESM1-M which observed slightly increasing trends. The results are further validated by historical precipitation recorded by the Climate Research Unit (CRU-TS-3.1). The future scenarios will likely be positive trends for annual rainfall. Significant positive trends were observed in monsoon and winter seasons while premonsoon and postmonsoon seasons will likely be slightly downward trends. The 2040s will likely observe the lowest increase of 6.6% while the 2050s will observe the highest increase of 11.5% over the 21st century under future scenarios. However, due to the uncertainties in CMIP5, the future precipitation projections should be interpreted with caution. Thus, it could be concluded that the trend of change in precipitation around the Xijiang River Basin is on the increase under future scenarios. The results can be valuable to water resources and agriculture management policies, as well as the approach for managing floods and droughts under the perspective of global climate change.

scholarly journals Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Extreme Weather Events in the Niger Delta Part of Nigeria

Hydrology ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 19 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ibrahim Hassan ◽  
Robert M. Kalin ◽  
Jamiu A. Aladejana ◽  
Christopher J. White
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Niger Delta ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Extreme Event ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Emission Scenarios ◽  
Adaptation Measures ◽  
Mitigation And Adaptation

The Niger Delta is the most climate-vulnerable region in Nigeria. Flooding events are recorded annually in settlements along the River Niger and its tributaries, inundating many towns and displacing people from their homes. In this study, climate change impacts from extreme meteorological events over the period 2010–2099 are predicted and analyzed. Four coupled model intercomparison project phase 5 (CMIP5) global climate models (GCMs) under respectively concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) emission scenarios were used for climate change predictions. Standardized precipitation indices (SPI) of 1-month and 12-month time steps were used for extreme event assessment. Results from the climate change scenarios predict an increase in rainfall across all future periods and under both emission scenarios, with the highest projected increase during the last three decades of the century. Under the RCP8.5 emission scenario, the rainfall at Port Harcourt and Yenagoa Stations is predicted to increase by about 2.47% and 2.62% while the rainfall at Warri Station is predicted to increase by about 1.39% toward the end of the century. The 12-month SPI under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emission scenarios predict an exceedance in the extreme wet threshold (i.e., SPI > 2) during all future periods and across all study locations. These findings suggest an increasing risk of flooding within the projected periods. The finding can be useful to policymakers for the formulation and planning of flood mitigation and adaptation measures.

scholarly journals MODELING SPECIES DISTRIBUTION OF <i>SHOREA GUISO</i> (BLANCO) BLUME AND <i>PARASHOREA MALAANONAN</i> (BLANCO) MERR IN MOUNT MAKILING FOREST RESERVE USING MAXENT

2019 ◽  
Vol XLII-4/W19 ◽  
pp. 441-448
Author(s):  
M. R. Tumaneng ◽  
R. Tumaneng ◽  
C. Tiburan Jr.
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Species Distribution ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Learning Algorithm ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Principal Component ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Emission Scenarios ◽  
Forest Reserve

Abstract. Climate change is regarded as one of the most significant drivers of biodiversity loss and altered forest ecosystems. This study aimed to model the current species distribution of two dipterocarp species in Mount Makiling Forest Reserve as well as the future distribution under different climate emission scenarios and global climate models. A machine-learning algorithm based on the principle of maximum entropy (Maxent) was used to generate the potential distributions of two dipterocarp species – Shorea guiso and Parashorea malaanonan. The species occurrence records of these species and sets of bioclimatic and physical variables were used in Maxent to predict the current and future distribution of these dipterocarp species. The variables were initially reduced and selected using Principal Component Analysis (PCA). Moreover, two global climate models (GCMs) and climate emission scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) projected to 2050 and 2070 were utilized in the study. The Maxent models predict that suitable areas for P. malaanonan will decline by 2050 and 2070 under RCP4.5 and RCP 8.5. On the other hand, S. guiso was found to benefit from future climate with increasing suitable areas. The findings of this study will provide initial understanding on how climate change affects the distribution of threatened species such as dipterocarps. It can also be used to aid decision-making process to better conserve the potential habitat of these species in current and future climate scenarios.

scholarly journals Regions of intensification of extreme snowfall under future warming

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Lennart Quante ◽  
Sven N. Willner ◽  
Robin Middelanis ◽  
Anders Levermann
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Observational Data ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Hydrological Cycle ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Average Intensity ◽  
High Latitudes ◽  
Future Warming

AbstractDue to climate change the frequency and character of precipitation are changing as the hydrological cycle intensifies. With regards to snowfall, global warming has two opposing influences; increasing humidity enables intense snowfall, whereas higher temperatures decrease the likelihood of snowfall. Here we show an intensification of extreme snowfall across large areas of the Northern Hemisphere under future warming. This is robust across an ensemble of global climate models when they are bias-corrected with observational data. While mean daily snowfall decreases, both the 99th and the 99.9th percentiles of daily snowfall increase in many regions in the next decades, especially for Northern America and Asia. Additionally, the average intensity of snowfall events exceeding these percentiles as experienced historically increases in many regions. This is likely to pose a challenge to municipalities in mid to high latitudes. Overall, extreme snowfall events are likely to become an increasingly important impact of climate change in the next decades, even if they will become rarer, but not necessarily less intense, in the second half of the century.

scholarly journals Reassessing Existing Reservoir Supply Capacity and Management Resilience under Climate Change and Sediment Deposition

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (13) ◽  
pp. 1819
Author(s):  
Eleni S. Bekri ◽  
Polychronis Economou ◽  
Panayotis C. Yannopoulos ◽  
Alexander C. Demetracopoulos
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Vital Role ◽  
Sediment Deposition ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Exceedance Probability ◽  
Climate Change Effects ◽  
Management Scenario ◽  
Supply Capacity

Freshwater resources are limited and seasonally and spatially unevenly distributed. Thus, in water resources management plans, storage reservoirs play a vital role in safeguarding drinking, irrigation, hydropower and livestock water supply. In the last decades, the dams’ negative effects, such as fragmentation of water flow and sediment transport, are considered in decision-making, for achieving an optimal balance between human needs and healthy riverine and coastal ecosystems. Currently, operation of existing reservoirs is challenged by increasing water demand, climate change effects and active storage reduction due to sediment deposition, jeopardizing their supply capacity. This paper proposes a methodological framework to reassess supply capacity and management resilience for an existing reservoir under these challenges. Future projections are derived by plausible climate scenarios and global climate models and by stochastic simulation of historic data. An alternative basic reservoir management scenario with a very low exceedance probability is derived. Excess water volumes are investigated under a probabilistic prism for enabling multiple-purpose water demands. Finally, this method is showcased to the Ladhon Reservoir (Greece). The probable total benefit from water allocated to the various water uses is estimated to assist decision makers in examining the tradeoffs between the probable additional benefit and risk of exceedance.

scholarly journals Projecting heat-related excess mortality under climate change scenarios in China

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Jun Yang ◽  
Maigeng Zhou ◽  
Zhoupeng Ren ◽  
Mengmeng Li ◽  
Boguang Wang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Excess Mortality ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Specific Effect ◽  
Northern China ◽  
The Elderly ◽  
Population Ageing ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios

AbstractRecent studies have reported a variety of health consequences of climate change. However, the vulnerability of individuals and cities to climate change remains to be evaluated. We project the excess cause-, age-, region-, and education-specific mortality attributable to future high temperatures in 161 Chinese districts/counties using 28 global climate models (GCMs) under two representative concentration pathways (RCPs). To assess the influence of population ageing on the projection of future heat-related mortality, we further project the age-specific effect estimates under five shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). Heat-related excess mortality is projected to increase from 1.9% (95% eCI: 0.2–3.3%) in the 2010s to 2.4% (0.4–4.1%) in the 2030 s and 5.5% (0.5–9.9%) in the 2090 s under RCP8.5, with corresponding relative changes of 0.5% (0.0–1.2%) and 3.6% (−0.5–7.5%). The projected slopes are steeper in southern, eastern, central and northern China. People with cardiorespiratory diseases, females, the elderly and those with low educational attainment could be more affected. Population ageing amplifies future heat-related excess deaths 2.3- to 5.8-fold under different SSPs, particularly for the northeast region. Our findings can help guide public health responses to ameliorate the risk of climate change.

scholarly journals Application of SWAT in Hydrological Simulation of Complex Mountainous River Basin (Part II: Climate Change Impact Assessment)

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (11) ◽  
pp. 1548
Author(s):  
Suresh Marahatta ◽  
Deepak Aryal ◽  
Laxmi Prasad Devkota ◽  
Utsav Bhattarai ◽  
Dibesh Shrestha
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Swat Model ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Mountainous River

This study aims at analysing the impact of climate change (CC) on the river hydrology of a complex mountainous river basin—the Budhigandaki River Basin (BRB)—using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) hydrological model that was calibrated and validated in Part I of this research. A relatively new approach of selecting global climate models (GCMs) for each of the two selected RCPs, 4.5 (stabilization scenario) and 8.5 (high emission scenario), representing four extreme cases (warm-wet, cold-wet, warm-dry, and cold-dry conditions), was applied. Future climate data was bias corrected using a quantile mapping method. The bias-corrected GCM data were forced into the SWAT model one at a time to simulate the future flows of BRB for three 30-year time windows: Immediate Future (2021–2050), Mid Future (2046–2075), and Far Future (2070–2099). The projected flows were compared with the corresponding monthly, seasonal, annual, and fractional differences of extreme flows of the simulated baseline period (1983–2012). The results showed that future long-term average annual flows are expected to increase in all climatic conditions for both RCPs compared to the baseline. The range of predicted changes in future monthly, seasonal, and annual flows shows high uncertainty. The comparative frequency analysis of the annual one-day-maximum and -minimum flows shows increased high flows and decreased low flows in the future. These results imply the necessity for design modifications in hydraulic structures as well as the preference of storage over run-of-river water resources development projects in the study basin from the perspective of climate resilience.

scholarly journals Ensemble models on palaeoclimate to predict India's groundwater challenge

2013 ◽  
Vol 2 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Partha Sarathi Datta
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Humid Climate ◽  
Ensemble Models ◽  
North West ◽  
The Past ◽  
The North ◽  
14C Age

In many parts of the world, freshwater crisis is largely due to increasing water consumption and pollution by rapidly growing population and aspirations for economic development, but, ascribed usually to the climate. However, limited understanding and knowledge gaps in the factors controlling climate and uncertainties in the climate models are unable to assess the probable impacts on water availability in tropical regions. In this context, review of ensemble models on δ18O and δD in rainfall and groundwater, 3H- and 14C- ages of groundwater and 14C- age of lakes sediments helped to reconstruct palaeoclimate and long-term recharge in the North-west India; and predict future groundwater challenge. The annual mean temperature trend indicates both warming/cooling in different parts of India in the past and during 1901–2010. Neither the GCMs (Global Climate Models) nor the observational record indicates any significant change/increase in temperature and rainfall over the last century, and climate change during the last 1200 yrs BP. In much of the North-West region, deep groundwater renewal occurred from past humid climate, and shallow groundwater renewal from limited modern recharge over the past decades. To make water management to be more responsive to climate change, the gaps in the science of climate change need to be bridged.

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