scholarly journals MaxEnt Modeling Based on CMIP6 Models to Project Potential Suitable Zones for Cunninghamia lanceolata in China

Forests ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (6) ◽  
pp. 752
Author(s):  
Yichen Zhou ◽  
Zengxin Zhang ◽  
Bin Zhu ◽  
Xuefei Cheng ◽  
Liu Yang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Species Distribution ◽  
Water Conservation ◽  
Critical Role ◽  
Cunninghamia Lanceolata ◽  
Distribution Area ◽  
Timber Species ◽  
Diurnal Range ◽  
The Future ◽  
Suitable Area

Cunninghamia lanceolata (Lamb.) Hook. (Chinese fir) is one of the main timber species in Southern China, which has a wide planting range that accounts for 25% of the overall afforested area. Moreover, it plays a critical role in soil and water conservation; however, its suitability is subject to climate change. For this study, the appropriate distribution area of C. lanceolata was analyzed using the MaxEnt model based on CMIP6 data, spanning 2041–2060. The results revealed that (1) the minimum temperature of the coldest month (bio6), and the mean diurnal range (bio2) were the most important environmental variables that affected the distribution of C. lanceolata; (2) the currently suitable areas of C. lanceolata were primarily distributed along the southern coastal areas of China, of which 55% were moderately so, while only 18% were highly suitable; (3) the projected suitable area of C. lanceolata would likely expand based on the BCC-CSM2-MR, CanESM5, and MRI-ESM2-0 under different SSPs spanning 2041–2060. The increased area estimated for the future ranged from 0.18 to 0.29 million km2, where the total suitable area of C. lanceolata attained a maximum value of 2.50 million km2 under the SSP3-7.0 scenario, with a lowest value of 2.39 million km2 under the SSP5-8.5 scenario; (4) in combination with land use and farmland protection policies of China, it is estimated that more than 60% of suitable land area could be utilized for C. lanceolata planting from 2041–2060 under different SSP scenarios. Although climate change is having an increasing influence on species distribution, the deleterious impacts of anthropogenic activities cannot be ignored. In the future, further attention should be paid to the investigation of species distribution under the combined impacts of climate change and human activities.

scholarly journals Optimized Maxent Model Predictions of Climate Change Impacts on the Suitable Distribution of Cunninghamia lanceolata in China

Forests ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (3) ◽  
pp. 302 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yingchang Li ◽  
Mingyang Li ◽  
Chao Li ◽  
Zhenzhen Liu
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Information Criterion ◽  
Scientific Basis ◽  
Cunninghamia Lanceolata ◽  
Distribution Area ◽  
Suitable Habitat ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Niche Modelling ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
The Future

Climate change significantly influences changes in ecological phenomena and processes, such as species distribution and phenology, thus accelerating the rate of species extinction or prosperity. Climate change is considered to be one of the most important threats to global biodiversity in the 21st century and will pose significant challenges to biodiversity conservation in the future. The use of niche modelling to predict changes in the suitable distribution of species under climate change scenarios is becoming a hot topic of biological conservation. In this study, we use data from China’s National Forest Continuous Inventory as well as specimen collection data of Cunninghamia lanceolata (Lamb.) Hook to run optimized Maxent models to predict potential suitable distribution of the species in the present day, 2050s, and 2070s under different climate change scenarios in China. In the modeling process, the most important uncorrelated variables were chosen, and the sample-size-adjusted Akaike information criterion (AICc) was used to select the optimal combination of feature type and regularization multiplier. Variable selection reduced the number of variables used and the complexity of the model, and the use of the AICc reduced overfitting. Variables relating to precipitation were more important than temperature variables in predicting C. lanceolata distribution in the optimal model. The predicted suitable distribution areas of C. lanceolata were different for the different periods under different climate change scenarios, with the centroids showing a degree of northward movement. The suitable distribution area is predicted to become more fragmented in the future. Our results reveal the climate conditions required for the suitable distribution of C. lanceolata in China and the likely changes to its distribution pattern in the future, providing a scientific basis for the sustainable management, protection, and restoration of the suitable habitat of this economically important tree species in the context of climate change.

Urban water demand assessment for sustainable water resources management, under climate change and socioeconomic changes

2019 ◽  
Vol 20 (2) ◽  
pp. 679-687 ◽  
Author(s):  
Angelos Alamanos ◽  
Stamatis Sfyris ◽  
Chrysostomos Fafoutis ◽  
Nikitas Mylopoulos
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Management ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Water Conservation ◽  
Water Demand ◽  
Management Scenarios ◽  
Sustainable Water Resources Management ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The City

Abstract The relationship between water abstraction and water availability has turned into a major stress factor in the urban exploitation of water resources. The situation is expected to be sharpened in the future due to the intensity of extreme meteorological phenomena, and socio-economic changes affecting water demand. In the city of Volos, Greece, the number of water counters has been tripled during the last four decades. This study attempts to simulate the city's network, supply system and water demand through a forecasting model. The forecast was examined under several situations, based on climate change and socio-economic observations of the city, using meteorological, water pricing, users' income, level of education, family members, floor and residence size variables. The most interesting outputs are: (a) the impact of each variable in the water consumption and (b) water balance under four management scenarios, indicating the future water management conditions of the broader area, including demand and supply management. The results proved that rational water management can lead to remarkable water conservation. The simulation of real scenarios and future situations in the city's water demand and balance, is the innovative element of the study, making it capable of supporting the local water utility.

scholarly journals Range Shift in Response to Climate Change of Chinese Caterpillar Fungus Based on Species Redundancy

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jian Chen ◽  
Yuan Feng ◽  
Wu Kui ◽  
Dai Dong ◽  
Wang Dong ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Distribution Pattern ◽  
Host Plants ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Range Shift ◽  
Distribution Area ◽  
Maxent Model ◽  
Pattern Similarity ◽  
Caterpillar Fungus ◽  
Suitable Area

The presence of the Chinese caterpillar fungus (CCF) depends on the distribution of its host insects and host plants. However, its distribution pattern in response to climate change and interspecific relationships in geographical distribution is unknown. We used the MaxEnt model to obtain areas suitable for the CCF, considering its host insects and host plants under different historical climate backgrounds. We then superimposed and analyzed them to explore the range shift in response to climate change of Chinese caterpillar fungus based on species redundancy. From the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) to 2050, the suitable distribution pattern of the CCF is estimated to change from fragmentized to concentrated and connected. The high redundancy area (HRA) continued to increase from the Middle Holocene (MH) to the present and 2050, with an increased area of 31.46×104 km2. The suitable area moved to the northwest and the total movement distance of its average coordinates was about 500 km. The altitude of the suitable area increased continuously from the LGM to the present and to 2050, and the average altitude of HRA increased from 2740.89 m (LGM) to 4246.76 m (2050). The distribution pattern and changes of CCF under different climatic conditions provides a reference for the current and future geographical regional planning for conservation and sustainable utilization. The distribution pattern similarity of the CCF suitable area, suitable area for host insects, and host plants HRA of distribution area, might be the result of their long-term co-evolution. The decreasing trend of CCF yield under human disturbance was not as severe as expected, suggesting that climate change may be beneficial to distribution expansion of the CCF.

scholarly journals Intersection of Climate Change and Health: An Explication of the Future of Nursing 2020-2030: Charting a Path to Achieve Health Equity

2021 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 10-17
Author(s):  
Patrice Nicholas ◽  
Clara Gona ◽  
Linda Evans ◽  
Eleonor Pusey Reid
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Health Equity ◽  
Critical Role ◽  
Institutional Racism ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Future ◽  
Optimal Population ◽  
Future Of Nursing ◽  
Climate Change And Health

The US National Academy of Medicine released its consensus study for the next decade entitled The Future of Nursing 2020-2030: Charting a Path To Achieve Health Equity (National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine, 2021). This paper examines the report, its implications for nursing globally, its focus on systemic, structural, and institutional racism, and the intersection with climate change and deleterious health consequences. The National Academies of Science, Engineering, and Medicine (NASEM) has led in addressing the critical role of the nursing profession in achieving optimal population health outcomes in the US. Yet, relevance exists for nursing in other global areas. The most recent US report focuses on social determinants of health (SDoH) and explicitly addresses climate change as a looming public health threat. An analysis of the key foci of nursing’s role in climate change amidst the critical role of health equity globally is explicated.  

scholarly journals Prediction of Potentially Suitable Distributions of Codonopsis pilosula in China Based on an Optimized MaxEnt Model

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Huyong Yan ◽  
Jiao He ◽  
Xiaochuan Xu ◽  
Xinyu Yao ◽  
Guoyin Wang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Distribution Area ◽  
Last Interglacial ◽  
Modeling Tools ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
Maxent Model ◽  
Codonopsis Pilosula ◽  
Diurnal Range ◽  
Precipitation Seasonality ◽  
Suitable Area ◽  
The Impact

Species distribution models are widely used in conservation biology and invasive biology. MaxEnt models are the most widely used models among the existing modeling tools. In the MaxEnt modeling process, the default parameters are used most often to build the model. However, these models tend to be overfit. Aiming at this problem, this study uses an optimized MaxEnt model to analyze the impact of past, present and future climate on the distributions of Codonopsis pilosula, an economic species, to provide a theoretical basis for its introduction and cultivation. Based on 264 distribution records and eight environmental variables, the potential distribution areas of C. pilosula in the last interglacial, middle Holocene and current periods and 2050 and 2070 were simulated. Combined with the percentage contribution, permutation importance, and jackknife test, the environmental factors affecting the suitable distribution area of this species were discussed. The results show that the parameters of the optimal model are: the regularization multiplier is 1.5, and the feature combination is LQHP (linear, quadratic, hinge, product). The main temperature factors affecting the distribution of C. pilosula are the annual mean temperature, mean diurnal range, and isothermality. The main precipitation factors are the precipitation seasonality, precipitation in the wettest quarter, and precipitation in the driest quarter, among which the annual average temperature contributes the most to the distribution area of this species. With climate warming, the suitable area of C. pilosula exhibits a northward expansion trend. It is estimated that in 2070, the suitable area of this species will expand to its maximum, reaching 2.5108 million square kilometers. The highly suitable areas of C. pilosula are mainly in Sichuan, Gansu, Shaanxi, Shanxi, and Henan Provinces. Our findings can be used to provide theoretical support related to avoiding the blind introduction of C. pilosula.

scholarly journals Estimating potential range shift of some wild bees in response to climate change scenarios in northwestern regions of Iran

2021 ◽  
Vol 45 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ehsan Rahimi ◽  
Shahindokht Barghjelveh ◽  
Pinliang Dong
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Habitat Quality ◽  
Species Distribution ◽  
Range Shift ◽  
Potential Range ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Natural Ecosystem ◽  
Quality Changes ◽  
Wild Bees ◽  
The Future

Abstract Background Climate change is occurring rapidly around the world, and is predicted to have a large impact on biodiversity. Various studies have shown that climate change can alter the geographical distribution of wild bees. As climate change affects the species distribution and causes range shift, the degree of range shift and the quality of the habitats are becoming more important for securing the species diversity. In addition, those pollinator insects are contributing not only to shaping the natural ecosystem but also to increased crop production. The distributional and habitat quality changes of wild bees are of utmost importance in the climate change era. This study aims to investigate the impact of climate change on distributional and habitat quality changes of five wild bees in northwestern regions of Iran under two representative concentration pathway scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5). We used species distribution models to predict the potential range shift of these species in the year 2070. Result The effects of climate change on different species are different, and the increase in temperature mainly expands the distribution ranges of wild bees, except for one species that is estimated to have a reduced potential range. Therefore, the increase in temperature would force wild bees to shift to higher latitudes. There was also significant uncertainty in the use of different models and the number of environmental layers employed in the modeling of habitat suitability. Conclusion The increase in temperature caused the expansion of species distribution and wider areas would be available to the studied species in the future. However, not all of this possible range may include high-quality habitats, and wild bees may limit their niche to suitable habitats. On the other hand, the movement of species to higher latitudes will cause a mismatch between farms and suitable areas for wild bees, and as a result, farmers will face a shortage of pollination from wild bees. We suggest that farmers in these areas be aware of the effects of climate change on agricultural production and consider the use of managed bees in the future.

scholarly journals Identifying Potentially Climatic Suitability Areas for Arma custos (Hemiptera: Pentatomidae) in China under Climate Change

Insects ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (10) ◽  
pp. 674
Author(s):  
Shiyu Fan ◽  
Chao Chen ◽  
Qing Zhao ◽  
Jiufeng Wei ◽  
Hufang Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Spodoptera Frugiperda ◽  
Future Application ◽  
Distribution Area ◽  
Optimal Range ◽  
Forest Pests ◽  
The North ◽  
Climatic Scenarios ◽  
Major Factors ◽  
Suitable Area

Spodoptera frugiperda is a notorious pest that feeds on more than 80 crops, and has spread over 100 countries. Many biological agents have been employed to regulate it, such as Arma custos. A. custos is a polyphagous predatory heteropteran, which can effectively suppress several agricultural and forest pests. Thus, in order to understand where A. custos can survive and where can be released, MaxEnt was used to predict the potentially suitable areas for A. custos in China under climate change conditions. The results show that the annual mean temperature (bio1) and annual precipitation (bio12) are the major factors influencing the distribution of A. custos. The optimal range of the two are 7.5 to 15 °C, 750 to 1200 mm, respectively. The current climate is highly suitable for A. custos in Hebei, Henan, Shandong, Anhui, Hubei, Jiangsu, and Zhejiang Provinces. Considering the currently suitable distribution area of S. frugiperda, artificially reared A. custos is suitable for release in Fujian, Zhejiang, Jiangxi, Hunan, and southeastern Sichuan Provinces. Under the future climatic scenarios, the suitable area will decrease and shift towards the north. Overall, this result can provide a reference framework for future application of A. custos for biological control.

scholarly journals Evaluation of Climate Change Impacts on the Potential Distribution of Styrax sumatrana in North Sumatra, Indonesia

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
pp. 462
Author(s):  
Muhammad Hadi Saputra ◽  
Han Soo Lee
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Ex Situ ◽  
Conservation Strategies ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Slope Aspect ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
The Future ◽  
Suitable Area ◽  
North Sumatra

This study aims to assess the impact of climate change on the distribution of Styrax sumatrana in North Sumatra by applying the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model with biophysical factors (elevation, slope, aspect, and soil), climatic factors (19 bioclimate data sets for 2050 and 2070), and anthropogenic factors (land use land cover (LULC) changes in 2050 and 2070). The future climate data retrieved and used are the output of four climate models from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), namely, the CCSM4, CNRM-CM5, MIROC5, and MRI-CGCM3 models, under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. The MaxEnt modelling results showed the importance of the mean temperature of the coldest quarter and the LULC variables. Styrax sumatrana rely on environmental conditions with air temperatures ranging from 13 to 19 °C. The potentially suitable land types for Styrax sumatrana are shrubs, gardens, and forests. The future predictions show that the suitable habitat for Styrax sumatrana is predicted to decrease to 3.87% in 2050 and to 3.54% in 2070 under the RCP4.5 scenario. Under the RCP8.5 scenario, the suitable area is predicted to decrease to 3.04% in 2050 and to 1.36% in 2070, respectively. The degradation of the suitable area is mainly due to increasing temperature and deforestation in future predictions. The modelling results illustrate that the suitable habitats of Styrax sumatrana are likely to be reduced under future climate change scenarios or lost in 2070 under the RCP8.5 scenario. The potential future extinction of this species should alert authorities to formulate conservation strategies. Results also demonstrated key variables that should be used for formulating ex situ conservation strategies.

scholarly journals Vulnerability to climate change for narrowly ranged species: the case of Ecuadorian endemic Magnolia mercedesiarum

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
V. Shalisko ◽  
J. A. Vázquez-García ◽  
A. R. Villalobos-Arámbula ◽  
M. A. Muñiz-Castro
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Species Distribution ◽  
Environmental Conditions ◽  
Habitat Suitability ◽  
Distribution Area ◽  
Emission Scenarios ◽  
Niche Modelling ◽  
Species Vulnerability ◽  
Vulnerability To Climate Change ◽  
Current Species

AbstractSpecies vulnerability to climate change has been inferred using species distribution models from an example of the recently discovered Magnolia mercedesiarum (sect. Talauma, Magnoliaceae), a narrowly ranged species endemic to moist tropical forests in the eastern Ecuadorian Andes. The environmental conditions within the current species distribution area has been compared with conditions projected to 2050 and 2070, using data from the HadGEM2-ES model in two CO2 emission scenarios: RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The ecological niche modelling allowed determination of parameters of climatic environmental conditions that control current species distribution to produce a hypothesis on probable changes in spatial pattern of suitable habitats in future scenarios. Within the current species distribution area of M. mercedesiarum, significant reduction of habitat suitability was projected for both emission scenarios, combined with a lack of nearby areas with adequate environmental conditions. Several disjunct sites of high habitat suitability were found to emerge in the Colombian Andes, but they seem unreachable by this tree species in the scope of a few decades, due to intrinsic dispersal limitations. The reduction of habitat suitability and improbability of distribution area shift to adjacent geographic locations could mean a high species vulnerability to climate change. The species could be at risk of extinction if it does not possess hidden phenotypical plasticity and potential for fast adaptation to climate change.

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