scholarly journals Weather Conditions and Outdoor Fall Injuries in Northwestern Russia

2020 ◽  
Vol 17 (17) ◽  
pp. 6096 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tatiana N. Unguryanu ◽  
Andrej M. Grjibovski ◽  
Tordis A. Trovik ◽  
Børge Ytterstad ◽  
Alexander V. Kudryavtsev
Keyword(s):  
Air Temperature ◽  
Negative Binomial ◽  
Ground Surface ◽  
Warm Season ◽  
Negative Binomial Regression ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Cold Season ◽  
Population Based ◽  
Fall Injuries ◽  
Northwestern Russia

This study aimed to investigate associations between the weather conditions and the frequency of medically-treated, non-fatal accidental outdoor fall injuries (AOFIs) in a provincial region of Northwestern Russia. Data on all non-fatal AOFIs that occurred from January 2015 through June 2018 (N = 1125) were extracted from the population-based Shenkursk Injury Registry (SHIR). Associations between the weather conditions and AOFIs were investigated separately for the cold (15 October–14 April) and the warm (15 April–14 October) seasons. Negative binomial regression was used to investigate daily numbers of AOFIs in the cold season, while zero-inflated Poisson regression was used for the warm season. The mean daily number of AOFIs was 1.7 times higher in the cold season compared to the warm season (1.10 vs. 0.65, respectively). The most typical accident mechanism in the cold season was slipping (83%), whereas stepping wrong or stumbling over something was most common (49%) in the warm season. The highest mean daily incidence of AOFIs in the cold season (20.2 per 100,000 population) was observed on days when the ground surface was covered by compact or wet snow, air temperature ranged from −7.0 °C to −0.7 °C, and the amount of precipitation was above 0.4 mm. In the warm season, the highest mean daily incidence (7.0 per 100,000 population) was observed when the air temperature and atmospheric pressure were between 9.0 °C and 15.1 °C and 1003.6 to 1010.9 hPa, respectively. Along with local weather forecasts, broadcasting warnings about the increased risks of outdoor falls may serve as an effective AOFI prevention tool.

scholarly journals Causes and Flock Level Risk Factors of Sheep and Goat Abortion in Three Agroecology Zones in Ethiopia

2021 ◽  
Vol 8 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gezahegn Alemayehu ◽  
Gezahegne Mamo ◽  
Biruk Alemu ◽  
Hiwot Desta ◽  
Biniam Tadesse ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Negative Binomial ◽  
Small Ruminant ◽  
Production Systems ◽  
Negative Binomial Regression ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Cold Season ◽  
Cross Sectional Survey ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Short Rainy Season

A cross-sectional survey was conducted to estimate the incidence of small ruminant abortion and identify its major causes and potential risk factors in goat and sheep flocks in three agroecology and production systems of Ethiopia. Information on pregnancy outcomes and management risk factors were collected for 299 goat and 242 sheep flocks. Blood samples were collected from 133 sheep and 90 goat flocks and tested for Coxiella burnetii, Brucella spp., Chlamydia abortus, and Toxoplasma gondii. A causal diagram outlined relationships between potential predictor variables and abortion in the flock. The effect of management and exposure to infectious causes on the number of abortions in the flock across agroecology was tested using zero-inflated negative binomial regression. Results showed that 142 (58.68%) goats and 53 (17.73%) sheep flocks reported abortions in the 12 months before the survey. The mean annual flock abortion percentages were 16.1% (±26.23) for does and 12.6% (±23.5) for ewes. Farmers perceived infectious diseases, extreme weather conditions, feed shortage, physical traumas, and plant poisoning as the most important causes of abortion. A higher proportion of abortion was recorded during the short rainy season (March to May) and start of the short dry and cold season (June to August) in the lowland mixed crop-livestock and pastoral agroecology and production system, respectively. Overall, 65.41% sheep and 92.22% goat flocks tested positive for one or more abortion causing agents, namely, C. burnetti, C. abortus, Brucella spp., and T. gondii; mixed infection was found in 31.58% sheep and 63.33% goat flocks. Spending the night in a traditional house and providing supplementary feed for pregnant dams were important management factors which significantly (p ≤ 0.05) decreased the risk of abortion by 2.63 and 4.55 times, respectively. However, the presence of other livestock species and dogs in the household and exposure of the flock to Brucella spp. or anyone of the four tested infectious agents significantly (p ≤ 0.05) increased the risk of abortion in sheep and goat flocks. In general, abortion is a challenge for small ruminant production in the study area especially in lowland agroecology and calls for improvement in husbandry practices, health care and biosecurity practices.

scholarly journals Ambient temperature and subsequent COVID-19 mortality in the OECD countries and individual United States

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Costas A. Christophi ◽  
Mercedes Sotos-Prieto ◽  
Fan-Yun Lan ◽  
Mario Delgado-Velandia ◽  
Vasilis Efthymiou ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Ambient Temperature ◽  
Negative Binomial ◽  
Negative Binomial Regression ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Oecd Countries ◽  
Epidemiological Studies ◽  
Sociodemographic Factors ◽  
Sensitivity Analyses ◽  
Inverse Association

AbstractEpidemiological studies have yielded conflicting results regarding climate and incident SARS-CoV-2 infection, and seasonality of infection rates is debated. Moreover, few studies have focused on COVD-19 deaths. We studied the association of average ambient temperature with subsequent COVID-19 mortality in the OECD countries and the individual United States (US), while accounting for other important meteorological and non-meteorological co-variates. The exposure of interest was average temperature and other weather conditions, measured at 25 days prior and 25 days after the first reported COVID-19 death was collected in the OECD countries and US states. The outcome of interest was cumulative COVID-19 mortality, assessed for each region at 25, 30, 35, and 40 days after the first reported death. Analyses were performed with negative binomial regression and adjusted for other weather conditions, particulate matter, sociodemographic factors, smoking, obesity, ICU beds, and social distancing. A 1 °C increase in ambient temperature was associated with 6% lower COVID-19 mortality at 30 days following the first reported death (multivariate-adjusted mortality rate ratio: 0.94, 95% CI 0.90, 0.99, p = 0.016). The results were robust for COVID-19 mortality at 25, 35 and 40 days after the first death, as well as other sensitivity analyses. The results provide consistent evidence across various models of an inverse association between higher average temperatures and subsequent COVID-19 mortality rates after accounting for other meteorological variables and predictors of SARS-CoV-2 infection or death. This suggests potentially decreased viral transmission in warmer regions and during the summer season.

scholarly journals Evaluation of community coalition training effects on youth hospital-admitted injury incidence in Victoria, Australia: 2001–2017

2019 ◽  
Vol 26 (5) ◽  
pp. 463-470 ◽  
Author(s):  
Janneke Berecki-Gisolf ◽  
Bosco Rowland ◽  
Nicola Reavley ◽  
Barbara Minuzzo ◽  
John Toumbourou
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Injury Risk ◽  
Negative Binomial ◽  
Hospital Admissions ◽  
Intervention Strategy ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Negative Binomial Regression ◽  
Population Based ◽  
Injury Incidence ◽  
The Impact

BackgroundInjuries are one of the three leading causes of morbidity and mortality for young people internationally. Although community risk factors are modifiable causes of youth injury, there has been limited evaluation of community interventions. Communities That Care (CTC) offers a coalition training process to increase evidence-based practices that reduce youth injury risk factors.MethodUsing a non-experimental design, this study made use of population-based hospital admissions data to evaluate the impact on injuries for 15 communities that implemented CTC between 2001 and 2017 in Victoria, Australia. Negative binomial regression models evaluated trends in injury admissions (all, unintentional and transport), comparing CTC and non-CTC communities across different age groups.ResultsStatistically significant relative reductions in all hospital injury admissions in 0–4 year olds were associated with communities completing the CTC process and in 0–19 year olds when communities began their second cycle of CTC. When analysed by subgroup, a similar pattern was observed with unintentional injuries but not with transport injuries.ConclusionThe findings support CTC coalition training as an intervention strategy for preventing youth hospital injury admissions. However, future studies should consider stronger research designs, confirm findings in different community contexts, use other data sources and evaluate intervention mechanisms.

Increase in time to initiating cancer therapy and association with worsened survival in curative settings: A U.S. analysis of common solid tumors.

2017 ◽  
Vol 35 (15_suppl) ◽  
pp. 6557-6557 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alok A. Khorana ◽  
Katherine Tullio ◽  
Paul Elson ◽  
Nathan A. Pennell ◽  
Matthew F. Kalady ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Overall Survival ◽  
Solid Tumors ◽  
Negative Binomial ◽  
Early Stage ◽  
Negative Binomial Regression ◽  
Population Based ◽  
Stage I ◽  
Curative Intent ◽  
Hazard Ratios ◽  
Time To Treatment Initiation

6557 Background: Increase in time to treatment initiation (TTI) for new cancer diagnoses causes patient distress and may adversely affect outcomes. We investigated trends in TTI for common solid tumors treated with curative intent, determinants of delayed TTI and impact on overall survival. Methods: We utilized population-based, prospective data from the National Cancer Database for newly diagnosed US patients with early-stage breast, prostate, lung, colorectal, renal and pancreas cancers from 2004-13. TTI was defined as days between diagnosis of cancer and first treatment (surgery, systemic or radiation therapy). Negative binomial regression and Cox proportional hazard models were used for analysis. Results: The study population of 3,672,561 patients included breast (N = 1,368,024), prostate (N = 944,246), colorectal (N = 662,094), non-small cell lung (NSCLC)(N = 363,863), renal(N = 262,915) and pancreas (N = 71,419) cancers. Median TTI increased from 21 days in 2004 to 29 days in 2013 (P < 0.0001). Aside from year, determinants of delays included care at academic centers and change in treating facility. Increased TTI was associated with worsened overall survival (OS) for stages I and II breast, lung, renal, and pancreas cancers, and stage II colorectal cancers, with hazard ratios per week of delay ranging from1.005 (1.002-1.008) to 1.030 (1.025-1.035), adjusting for comorbidities and other variables. Prolonged TTI ( > 6 wks) was associated with substantially worsened OS e.g., 5-yr OS for stage I NSCLC was 56% (±0.2) for TTI ≤ 6wks v 43% (±0.2) for TTI > 6 wks and for stage I pancreas was 38% (±0.6) v 29% (±1) respectively (P < 0.0001 for both). Conclusions: TTI has lengthened significantly over recent years, associated with multiple factors. Increase in TTI is associated with substantial increase in mortality ranging from 0.5-3.2% per week of delay in curative settings such as early-stage breast, lung and pancreas cancers. Simplifying access and navigation of complex health systems is essential to diminish this apparently iatrogenic impact on outcomes.

scholarly journals Comparative effectiveness of dimethyl fumarate in Multiple Sclerosis

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pauline Bosco-Levy ◽  
Marc Debouverie ◽  
Bruno Brochet ◽  
Céline Louapre ◽  
Elisabeth Maillard ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Multiple Sclerosis ◽  
Negative Binomial ◽  
Real Life ◽  
Logistic Models ◽  
Negative Binomial Regression ◽  
Dimethyl Fumarate ◽  
Population Based ◽  
Disability Progression ◽  
Real Life Setting ◽  
Using Data

Abstract Objectives: To assess the effectiveness of dimethyl fumarate (DMF) on annual rate of relapse (ARR) and disability progression in multiple sclerosis (MS) compared to injectable immunomodulators (IMM), teriflunomide (TERI) and fingolimob (FTY), in real life setting. Methods: A population-based cohort study was conducted using data of the French nationwide claims database, SNDS. All patients initiating IMM, TERI, FTY or DMF between July 1, 2015 and December 12, 2017, with 4.5 years of database history and 1 to 3.5 years of follow-up were included in this study. DMF patients were 1:1 matched to IMM, TERI or FTY using a high dimensional Propensity Score. Negative binomial regression and a regression logistic models were used to estimate the relative risk (RR ± [95% CI]) of ARR and the Odds Ratio (OR ± [95% CI]) of disability progression, respectively. Results: Overall, 9 304 subjects were identified: 29.0% initiated DMF, 33.2% TERI, 5.6% FTY and 32.2% an IMM. The matched cohorts consisted of 1779 DMF- IMM, patients, 1679 DMF-TERI patients, and 376 DMF-FTY patients. DMF significantly reduced ARR compared to IMM (RR 0.72 [0.61 - 0.86]) and TERI (0.81 [0.68 - 0.96]). The risk of the progression of MS specific disability was not significantly different for any matched cohorts.Interpretation: DMF is associated with lower risk of relapse for patients with RRMS than other first-line RRMS agents (TERI and IIM).

scholarly journals Impacts of Obesity On Absenteeism and Indirect Costs Among Working Adults: A Longitudinal Analysis From The EpiDoc Study

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kelli Destri ◽  
Joana Alves ◽  
Maria João Gregório ◽  
Sara Simões Dias ◽  
Helena Canhão ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Negative Binomial ◽  
Work Productivity ◽  
Indirect Costs ◽  
Negative Binomial Regression ◽  
Population Based ◽  
Normal Weight ◽  
Negative Binomial Regression Model ◽  
Obese Women ◽  
Obesity Epidemic ◽  
Working Adults

Abstract Background Obesity leads to poor health outcomes and may adversely affect work productivity. Here, we aimed to investigate the association between obesity and absenteeism and to assess its indirect costs. Methods The study population included individuals actively working at baseline from the Epidemiology of Chronic Diseases Cohort (EpiDoC), a large Portuguese population-based prospective study. Body mass index was measured at baseline and in two follow-up interviews. Absenteeism in each wave of the EpiDoC was assessed by the question “Did you have a sick leave in the previous 12 months? yes/no”, followed by “How many days did you miss work due to sickness in the previous twelve months?”. Association between obesity and absenteeism was estimated with the negative binomial regression model, and indirect costs were computed by the human-capital approach. Results The EpiDoC included 4338 working adults at baseline. Prevalence of obesity among these individuals was 15.2% at baseline, and rate of absenteeism was 22.7%. Obesity was associated with a 31% increase in absenteeism incidence rate ratio (P < 0.01), with obese individuals missing 3.8 more days per year than those with normal weight (95% confidence interval [95%CI]: 3.1–4.5). This number is higher in women (4.6 days per year; 95%CI: 3.6–5.6), and obese women with white collar professions were 82% (P < 0.01) more likely to miss work. Extrapolating to the entire working population, absenteeism due to obesity incurred an additional cost of €236 million per year. Conclusion Obesity is an independent risk factor for absenteeism among working adults, leading to high economic costs. These findings suggest improved food and nutrition policies are needed to control the obesity epidemic and reduce the associated economic burden.

scholarly journals Predictors of hospitalisation and death due to SARS-CoV-2 infection in Finland: a population-based register study with implications to vaccinations

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Heini Salo ◽  
Toni Lehtonen ◽  
Kari Auranen ◽  
Ulrike Baum ◽  
Tuija Leino
Keyword(s):  
Renal Disease ◽  
Negative Binomial ◽  
Chronic Renal Disease ◽  
Hematologic Malignancy ◽  
Negative Binomial Regression ◽  
Population Based ◽  
Register Study ◽  
Malignant Neoplasms ◽  
Intensive Care Treatment ◽  
Cell Transplant

Abstract Introduction. The aim of this study was to investigate how age and underlying medical conditions affect the risk of severe outcomes following SARS-CoV-2 infection and how they should be weighed while prioritising vaccinations against COVID-19. Methods. This population-based register study includes all SARS-CoV-2 PCR-test-positive cases until 24 Feb 2021, based on the Finnish National Infectious Diseases Register. The cases were linked to other registers to identify presence of comorbidities and severe outcomes (hospitalisation, intensive care treatment, death). The odds of severe outcomes were compared in those with and without the pre-specified comorbidities using logistic regression. Furthermore, population-based rates were compared between those with a given comorbidity and those without any of the specified comorbidities using negative binomial regression. Results. Age and various comorbidities were found to be predictors of severe COVID-19. Compared to 60–69-year-olds, the odds ratio (OR) of death was 7.1 for 70–79-year-olds, 26.7 for 80–89-year-olds, and 55.8 for 90-year-olds and over. Among the 20–69-year-olds, chronic renal disease (OR 9.4), malignant neoplasms (5.8), hematologic malignancy (5.6), chronic pulmonary disease (5.4), and cerebral palsy or other paralytic syndromes (4.6) were strongly associated with COVID-19 mortality; severe disorders of the immune system (8.0), organ or stem cell transplant (7.2), chronic renal disease (6.7), and diseases of myoneural junction and muscle (5.5) were strongly associated with COVID-19 hospitalisation. Type 2 diabetes and asthma, two very common comorbidities, were associated with all three outcomes, with ORs from 2.1 to 4.3. The population-based rate of SARS-CoV-2 infection decreased with age. Taking the 60–69-year-olds as reference, the rate ratio was highest (3.0) for 20–29-year-olds but under 1 for 70–79-year-olds and 80–89-year-olds. Conclusion. Comorbidities predispose for severe COVID-19 among younger ages. In vaccine prioritisation both the risk of infection and the risk of severe outcomes, if infected, should be combined.

Factors associated with attendance and attendance patterns in a population-based mammographic screening program

2020 ◽  
pp. 096914132093294
Author(s):  
Marthe Larsen ◽  
Nataliia Moshina ◽  
Silje Sagstad ◽  
Solveig Hofvind
Keyword(s):  
Negative Binomial ◽  
Screening Program ◽  
Smoking Status ◽  
Negative Binomial Regression ◽  
Population Based ◽  
Education Level ◽  
Attendance Rate ◽  
Late Afternoon ◽  
Factors Associated ◽  
Attendance Pattern

Objective To explore the factors associated with attendance and attendance pattern in BreastScreen Norway. Methods We evaluated the number of invitations (n = 1,253,995) and attendances, 2015–2019, stratified by age, invitation method, screening unit and time of appointment. Attendance pattern was analysed for women invited 10 times (n = 47,979), 1996–2019. The association of education level, body mass index, physical activity and smoking status with attendance was analysed for a sub-sample of women (n = 37,930). Descriptive statistics were used to analyse attendance, and negative binomial regression was used to analyse the association between the total number of attendances and education level and lifestyle factors. Results The attendance rate was 76.0%, 2015–2019. The rate was 78.0% for women aged >64 and 73.9% for those <55 . We found a rate of 82.0% for women who received a digital invitation, while it was 73.7% for those invited by post. The rate was 78.1% for invitations in the late afternoon, 3–6 p.m., while later appointments reached a rate of 73.7%. Half of the women invited 10 times attended all times. The predicted total number of attendances was 9 out of 10 for the factors investigated. Conclusion The highest attendance rates were shown for women aged >64, those who received digital invitations and those having appointments in late afternoon. The differences in predicted number of attendances between the investigated factors were minor. Overall, BreastScreen Norway has a high attendance rate. However, efforts aimed at increasing the attendance in specific groups should be considered.

Behavioural characterisation of Holstein steers in three different production systems

2016 ◽  
Vol 56 (10) ◽  
pp. 1683 ◽  
Author(s):  
O. Blumetto ◽  
A. Ruggia ◽  
A. Dalmau ◽  
F. Estellés ◽  
A. Villagrá
Keyword(s):  
Correspondence Analysis ◽  
Negative Binomial ◽  
Production Systems ◽  
Negative Binomial Regression ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Rainy Weather ◽  
Behavioural Patterns ◽  
Binomial Regression ◽  
Sunny Weather ◽  
Grazing Behaviour

The objective of the present study was to characterise the behaviour of Holstein steers in three different production systems. Forty-eight castrated Holstein males were randomly divided into three groups and allocated to the following three outdoor treatments: (T1) animals confined in a yard with an area of 210 m2, (T2) animals confined in a similar-sized yard but with 6 h of access to a pasture plot, (T3) animals maintained throughout the experiment on a pasture plot. Behaviour was recorded by scan sampling, 12 h a day (from 0700 hours to 1900 hours), 3 days per week, for 4 weeks evenly distributed from Week 7 to Week 16 of the experiment. So as to assess their patterns of behaviour, a negative binomial regression, correspondence analysis and logistic regressions were performed. Grazing was the predominant behaviour among Groups T2 and T3, while ‘eating hay’ was the most frequent behaviour among Group T1. For all treatments, lying was the second-most frequent behaviour. Despite animals in T2 having access to pasture for only half of the time with respect to those in T3, there was no difference between both treatments in the time spent grazing. Correspondence analysis of behaviour as a function of weather conditions showed that several behaviours were close to certain weather conditions, e.g. ‘standing’ and ‘ruminating while standing’ were closer to light rainy weather, while ‘lying’ or ‘ruminating while lying’ were more related to sunny weather.’Lying’ tended to increase along the day in all treatments, while ‘eating hay’ increased along the day within Group T1, but decreased within Groups T2 and T3. It is concluded that the management conditions associated with the systems that were studied produced different behavioural patterns in the steers. Grazing behaviour is important for the animals, and the permanent or restricted possibility to perform it, determined by the production system, meant that the patterns of other behaviours changed to give priority to pasture intake.

scholarly journals Loneliness, physical activity and mental health during Covid-19: a longitudinal analysis of depression and anxiety in adults over 50 between 2015 and 2020

2020 ◽  
pp. 1-21
Author(s):  
Byron Creese ◽  
Zunera Khan ◽  
William Henley ◽  
Siobhan O’Dwyer ◽  
Anne Corbett ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mental Health ◽  
Physical Activity ◽  
Risk Factors ◽  
Negative Binomial ◽  
Negative Binomial Regression ◽  
Population Based ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Activity Levels ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Objective: Loneliness and physical activity are important targets for research into the impact of COVID-19 because they have established links with mental health, could be exacerbated by social distancing policies and are potentially modifiable. In this study we aimed to identify whether loneliness and physical activity were associated with worse mental health during a period of mandatory social distancing in the UK. Design: Population-based observation cohort study. Setting: Mental health data collected online during COVID-19 from an existing sample of adults aged 50 and over taking part in a longitudinal study of ageing. All had comparable annual data collected between 2015 and 2019. Participants: 3,281 participants aged 50 and over. Measurements: Trajectories of depression (measured by PHQ-9) and anxiety (measured by GAD-7) between 2015 and 2020 were analyzed with respect to loneliness, physical activity levels and a number of socioeconomic and demographic characteristics using zero-inflated negative binomial regression. Results: In 2020, PHQ-9 score for loneliness, adjusted for covariates, was 3.23 (95% CI: 3.01-3.44), an increase of around one point on all previous years in this group and 2 points higher than people not rated lonely, whose score did not change in 2020 (1.22, 95% CI: 1.12-1.32). PHQ-9 was 2.60, 95% CI: 2.43-2.78 in people with decreased physical activity, an increase of 0.5 on previous years. In contrast, PHQ-9 in 2020 for people whose physical activity had not decreased was 1.66, 95% CI: 1.56-1.75, similar to previous years. A similar relationship was observed for GAD-7 though the absolute burden of symptoms lower. Conclusion: After accounting for pre-COVID-19 trends, we show that experiencing loneliness and decreased physical activity are risk factors for worsening mental health during the pandemic. Our findings highlight the need to examine policies which target these potentially modifiable risk factors.

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