scholarly journals Detection of Geometric Risk Factors Affecting Head-On Collisions through Multiple Logistic Regression: Improving Two-Way Rural Road Design via 21 Road Adaptation+

Author(s):  
Laura Cáceres ◽  
Miguel A. Fernández ◽  
Alfonso Gordaliza ◽  
Aquilino Molinero

This study aims to characterize locations on two-way rural roads where head-on crashes are more likely to occur, attending to geometric road design factors. For this purpose, a case-control study was carried out using multiple logistic regression models with variables related to road design parameters, considering several scenarios. The dataset corresponding to cases (places where crashes have occurred) was collected on Spanish “1+1” rural roads over a four-year period. The controls (places where no crashes have occurred in the period) where randomly selected through a specific ad hoc designed method. The obtained model identifies risk factors and allows the computation of the odds of a head-on collision on any specific road section: width of the pavement (when it exceeds 6 m), width of the lanes (for intermediate widths between 3.25 and 3.75 m) and tight curves (less than 250 m of radius) are identified as factors significantly increasing the odds of a crash, whereas a paved shoulder is a protective factor. The identified configurations on two-way rural roads may be susceptible to transformation into “2+1” roads to decrease the odds of a head-on crash, thus preventing possible serious injuries and enhancing transportation safety.

2016 ◽  
Vol 19 (3) ◽  
pp. 385-397 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sepedeh Gholizadeh ◽  
Abbas Moghimbeigi ◽  
Jalal Poorolajal ◽  
Mohammadali Khjeian ◽  
Fatemeh Bahramian ◽  
...  

2012 ◽  
Vol 30 (4_suppl) ◽  
pp. 190-190
Author(s):  
QuynhChau Diem Doan ◽  
Annette Beiderbeck ◽  
Qingshan Qian

190 Background: Most US studies evaluating risk factors for HCC have used data from hospitals, cancer registries, or Veterans Affairs database. These data sources have small patient populations and limited generalizability. Methods: This study investigated the association between HCC and potential risk factors [hepatitis B and C virus (HBV, HCV), diabetes, alcoholism, cirrhosis, obesity, liver disease, dyslipidemia, hemochromatosis, and hypothyroidism] and compared to the general (non-HCC) population of ~60 million lives from an employer group database. A retrospective cohort analysis was conducted using the Marketscan Research Database from Thomason Reuters. Case patients had an ICD-9 diagnosis for HCC between 1/1/2001 – 12/31/2009 (index date) but no HCC diagnosis during 1-year prior to index date. Randomly selected control patients did not have HCC diagnosis, were matched 3:1 ratio and enrolled during same time period as matched case patients, and matched for age (+/− 1 year), gender, and geographical region. All patients were 18 - 65 years old and did not have any cancer diagnosis (except HCC for case patients). Data from 1-year prior to index date were used to identify risk factors. Demographic variables and prevalence of risk factors were analyzed using descriptive statistics. Multiple logistic regression was used to predict the odds of developing HCC compared to non-HCC patients for these risk factors. Results: The study included 1,208 case and 3,624 control patients. Mean age of cases and controls was 54 years and 67% were male. In unadjusted multiple logistic regression models, the risk for HCC was 48-fold and 135-fold increased for patients with HBV and HCV, respectively [95% confidence interval (CI): 6.2 – 374.4 for HBV, 31.5 – 580.8 for HCV]. Diabetes increased the risk for HCC by 3.85 (95% CI 2.5 – 5.9). Alcoholic cirrhosis and nonalcoholic (NA) fatty liver disease/NA steatohepatitis increased the risk for HCC by nearly 200-fold. Conclusions: Using a larger database, these study findings were consistent with previous research and provided further evidence that the risk of HCC is greatly increased in individuals diagnosed with hepatitis, diabetes, liver disease, and alcoholism.


2010 ◽  
Vol 49 (06) ◽  
pp. 608-612 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. Renner ◽  
B. Fischer ◽  
M. Kutschmann

Summary Objectives: A low rate of newly developed pressure ulcers is considered as an important quality indicator in nursing. However, the result of a hospital depends not only on the quality of care but on the risk profile of its patients as well. Therefore, based on multiple logistic regression models we describe a method for calculating risk-adjusted quality indicators in nursing. Method: Based on data of 1,009,989 patients from 1747 hospitals in 2009, we developed two multiple logistic regression models to identify and to weigh a possible joint influence of several risk factors on newly developed pressure ulcers. In a further step, we calculated risk-adjusted rates. Results: Factors remaining in the regression models were “micro-movements on admission”, “diabetes mellitus”, “age” and “days on intensive care unit”. Based on the corresponding regression coefficients and the logistic function, the expected rate of newly developed pressure ulcers was calculated for every hospital. Fi nally, expected rates and observed rates both were used to calculate risk-adjusted rates. Conclusion: The simultaneous consideration of relevant risk factors by means of risk- adjusted quality indicators ensures a fair comparison of hospitals.


2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (8) ◽  
pp. 1018
Author(s):  
Can Wang ◽  
Jiechun Zhang ◽  
Chengping Hu ◽  
Yanbo Wang

Hypertension is one of the most common chronic diseases and a major risk factor for stroke, myocardial infarction and cardiovascular death. Cognitive frailty is an important predictor of all-cause mortality and dementia in aging individuals. Hypertension is closely related to cognitive frailty and these two conditions often coexist in aging individuals. Few studies have explored the relationship between hypertension and cognitive frailty in the Chinese population. This study investigates the epidemiological characteristics of and factors related to cognitive frailty in aging Chinese patients with hypertension. In total, cognitive function, weakness, social support, depression and sociodemographic were assessed in 305 participants aged 60 and over. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression models were constructed. The prevalence of cognitive frailty in aging Chinese hypertensive patients was 9.8% (95% CI = 6.4–13.2%). After adjusting for confounding variables, logistic regression showed that the course of hypertension (6–10 years, OR = 8.588, 95% CI = 1.608–45.859;course of more than 10 years, OR = 9.020, 95%CI = 1.854–43.892), multimorbidity (OR = 11.231, 95% CI = 2.912–43.322), depression (OR = 6.917, 95% CI = 2.424–19.738) and social support (OR = 0.187, 95% CI = 0.071–0.492) were independently associated with cognitive frailty. The prevalence of cognitive frailty in aging patients with hypertension in China should not be ignored. The course of hypertension, multimorbidity and depression are the risk factors of cognitive frailty in the aging population and a better level of social support is the protective factor for cognitive frailty.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Silvio Maltagliati ◽  
Stephen Sieber ◽  
Philippe Sarrazin ◽  
Stéphane Cullati ◽  
Aïna Chalabaev ◽  
...  

AbstractObjectivesPhysical activity has been proposed as a protective factor for COVID-19 hospitalization. However, the mechanisms underlying this association are unclear. Here, we examined the association between physical activity and COVID-19 hospitalization and whether this relationship was explained by other risk factors for severe COVID-19.MethodWe used data from adults aged 50 years and older from the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe. The outcome was self-reported hospitalization due to COVID-19 measured before August 2020. The main exposure was usual physical activity, self-reported between 2004 and 2017. Data were analyzed using logistic regression models.ResultsAmong the 3139 participants included in the study (69.3 ± 8.5 years, 1763 women), 266 were tested positive for COVID-19 and 66 were hospitalized. Results showed that individuals who engaged in physical activity more than once a week had lower odds of COVID-19 hospitalization than individuals who hardly ever or never engaged in physical activity (odds ratios = 0.41, 95% confidence interval = 0.22–0.74, p = .004). This association between physical activity and COVID-19 hospitalization was explained by muscle strength, but not by other risk factors.ConclusionThese findings suggest that, after 50 years of age, engaging in physical activity more than once a week is associated with lower odds of COVID-19 hospitalization. The protective effect of physical activity on COVID-19 hospitalization is explained by muscle strength.


2020 ◽  
Vol 22 (1) ◽  
pp. 6-14
Author(s):  
Matthew I Hardman ◽  
◽  
S Chandralekha Kruthiventi ◽  
Michelle R Schmugge ◽  
Alexandre N Cavalcante ◽  
...  

OBJECTIVE: To determine patient and perioperative characteristics associated with unexpected postoperative clinical deterioration as determined for the need of a postoperative emergency response team (ERT) activation. DESIGN: Retrospective case–control study. SETTING: Tertiary academic hospital. PARTICIPANTS: Patients who underwent general anaesthesia discharged to regular wards between 1 January 2013 and 31 December 2015 and required ERT activation within 48 postoperative hours. Controls were matched based on age, sex and procedure. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Baseline patient and perioperative characteristics were abstracted to develop a multiple logistic regression model to assess for potential associations for increased risk for postoperative ERT. RESULTS: Among 105 345 patients, 797 had ERT calls, with a rate of 7.6 (95% CI, 7.1–8.1) calls per 1000 anaesthetics (0.76%). Multiple logistic regression analysis showed the following risk factors for postoperative ERT: cardiovascular disease (odds ratio [OR], 1.61; 95% CI, 1.18–2.18), neurological disease (OR, 1.57; 95% CI, 1.11–2.22), preoperative gabapentin (OR, 1.60; 95% CI, 1.17–2.20), longer surgical duration (OR, 1.06; 95% CI, 1.02–1.11, per 30 min), emergency procedure (OR, 1.54; 95% CI, 1.09–2.18), and intraoperative use of colloids (OR, 1.50; 95% CI, 1.17–1.92). Compared with control participants, ERT patients had a longer hospital stay, a higher rate of admissions to critical care (55.5%), increased postoperative complications, and a higher 30-day mortality rate (OR, 3.36; 95% CI, 1.73–6.54). CONCLUSION: We identified several patient and procedural characteristics associated with increased likelihood of postoperative ERT activation. ERT intervention is a marker for increased rates of postoperative complications and death.


Circulation ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 138 (Suppl_1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Punag Divanji ◽  
Gregory Nah ◽  
Ian Harris ◽  
Anu Agarwal ◽  
Nisha I Parikh

Introduction: Characterized by significant left ventricular (LV) dysfunction and clinical heart failure (HF), peripartum cardiomyopathy (PPCM) has an incidence of approximately 1/2200 live births (0.04%). Prior studies estimate that approximately 25% of those with recovered LV function will have recurrent clinical PPCM during subsequent pregnancies, compared to 50% of those without recovered LV function. Specific predictors of recurrent PPCM have not been studied in cohorts with large numbers. Methods: From 2005-2011, we identified 1,872,227 pregnancies by International Classification of Diseases, 9th Revision (ICD-9) codes in the California Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project (HCUP) database, which captures over 95% of the California hospitalized population. Excluding 15,765 women with prior cardiovascular disease (myocardial infarction, coronary artery disease, stroke, HF, valve disease, or congenital heart disease), yielded n=1,856,462 women. Among women without prior cardiovascular disease, we identified index and subsequent pregnancies with PPCM to determine episodes of recurrent PPCM. We considered the following potential predictors of PPCM recurrence in both univariate and age-adjusted logistic regression models: age, race, hypertension, diabetes, smoking, obesity, chronic kidney disease, family history, pre-eclampsia, ectopic pregnancy, income, and insurance status. Results: In HCUP, n=783 women had pregnancies complicated by PPCM (mean age=30.8 years). Among these women, n=133 had a subsequent pregnancy (17%; mean age=28.1 years), with a mean follow-up of 4.34 years (±1.71 years). In this group of 133 subsequent pregnancies, n=14 (10.5%) were complicated by recurrent PPCM, with a mean time-to-event of 2.2 years (±1.89 years). Among the risk factors studied, the only univariate predictor of recurrent PPCM was grand multiparity, defined as ≥ 5 previous deliveries (odds ratio: 22; 95% confidence interval 4.43-118.22). The other predictors we studied were not significantly associated with recurrent PPCM in either univariate or multivariable models. Conclusion: In a large population database in California with 783 cases of PPCM over a 6-year period, 17% of women had a subsequent pregnancy, of which 10.5% had recurrent PPCM. In age-adjusted logistic regression models, grand multiparity was the only statistically significant predictor of recurrent PPCM.


2021 ◽  
Vol 143 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Joaquin E. Moran ◽  
Yasser Selima

Abstract Fluidelastic instability (FEI) in tube arrays has been studied extensively experimentally and theoretically for the last 50 years, due to its potential to cause significant damage in short periods. Incidents similar to those observed at San Onofre Nuclear Generating Station indicate that the problem is not yet fully understood, probably due to the large number of factors affecting the phenomenon. In this study, a new approach for the analysis and interpretation of FEI data using machine learning (ML) algorithms is explored. FEI data for both single and two-phase flows have been collected from the literature and utilized for training a machine learning algorithm in order to either provide estimates of the reduced velocity (single and two-phase) or indicate if the bundle is stable or unstable under certain conditions (two-phase). The analysis included the use of logistic regression as a classification algorithm for two-phase flow problems to determine if specific conditions produce a stable or unstable response. The results of this study provide some insight into the capability and potential of logistic regression models to analyze FEI if appropriate quantities of experimental data are available.


PLoS ONE ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (8) ◽  
pp. e0256415
Author(s):  
Christina N. Schmidt ◽  
Elizabeth Butrick ◽  
Sabine Musange ◽  
Nathalie Mulindahabi ◽  
Dilys Walker

Background Early antenatal care (ANC) reduces maternal and neonatal morbidity and mortality through identification of pregnancy-related complications, yet 44% of Rwandan women present to ANC after 16 weeks gestational age (GA). The objective of this study was to identify factors associated with delayed initiation of ANC and describe differences in the obstetric risks identified at the first ANC visit (ANC-1) between women presenting early and late to care. Methods This secondary data analysis included 10,231 women presenting for ANC-1 across 18 health centers in Rwanda (May 2017-December 2018). Multivariable logistic regression models were constructed using backwards elimination to identify predictors of presentation to ANC at ≥16 and ≥24 weeks GA. Logistic regression was used to examine differences in obstetric risk factors identified at ANC-1 between women presenting before and after 16- and 24-weeks GA. Results Sixty-one percent of women presented to ANC at ≥16 weeks and 24.7% at ≥24 weeks GA, with a mean (SD) GA at presentation of 18.9 (6.9) weeks. Younger age (16 weeks: OR = 1.36, 95% CI: 1.06, 1.75; 24 weeks: OR = 1.33, 95% CI: 0.95, 1.85), higher parity (16 weeks: 1–4 births, OR = 1.55, 95% CI: 1.39, 1.72; five or more births, OR = 2.57, 95% CI: 2.17, 3.04; 24 weeks: 1–4 births, OR = 1.93, 95% CI: 1.78, 2.09; five or more births, OR = 3.20, 95% CI: 2.66, 3.85), lower educational attainment (16 weeks: primary, OR = 0.75, 95% CI: 0.65, 0.86; secondary, OR = 0.60, 95% CI: 0.47,0.76; university, OR = 0.48, 95% CI: 0.33, 0.70; 24 weeks: primary, OR = 0.64, 95% CI: 0.53, 0.77; secondary, OR = 0.43, 95% CI: 0.29, 0.63; university, OR = 0.12, 95% CI: 0.04, 0.32) and contributing to household income (16 weeks: OR = 1.78, 95% CI: 1.40, 2.25; 24 weeks: OR = 1.91, 95% CI: 1.42, 2.55) were associated with delayed ANC-1 (≥16 and ≥24 weeks GA). History of a spontaneous abortion (16 weeks: OR = 0.74, 95% CI: 0.66, 0.84; 24 weeks: OR = 0.70, 95% CI: 0.58, 0.84), pregnancy testing (16 weeks: OR = 0.48, 95% CI: 0.33, 0.71; 24 weeks: OR = 0.41, 95% CI: 0.27, 0.61; 24 weeks) and residing in the same district (16 weeks: OR = 1.55, 95% CI: 1.08, 2.22; 24 weeks: OR = 1.73, 95% CI: 1.04, 2.87) or catchment area (16 weeks: OR = 1.53, 95% CI: 1.05, 2.23; 24 weeks: OR = 1.84, 95% CI: 1.28, 2.66; 24 weeks) as the health facility were protective against delayed ANC-1. Women with a prior preterm (OR, 0.71, 95% CI, 0.53, 0.95) or low birthweight delivery (OR, 0.72, 95% CI, 0.55, 0.95) were less likely to initiate ANC after 16 weeks. Women with no obstetric history were more likely to present after 16 weeks GA (OR, 1.18, 95% CI, 1.06, 1.32). Conclusion This study identified multiple predictors of delayed ANC-1. Focusing existing Community Health Worker outreach efforts on the populations at greatest risk of delaying care and expanding access to home pregnancy testing may improve early care attendance. While women presenting late to care were less likely to present without an identified obstetric risk factor, lower than expected rates were identified in the study population overall. Health centers may benefit from provider training and standardized screening protocols to improve identification of obstetric risk factors at ANC-1.


2020 ◽  
Vol 27 (5) ◽  
pp. 130-140
Author(s):  
Asraf Ahmad Qamruddin ◽  
Reza Qamruddin ◽  
Ayu Malik

Objectives: To determine the incidence rate of measles and the factors associated with confirmed measles cases in Larut, Matang and Selama districts. Methods: Cross-sectional analysis was carried out looking at all suspected and laboratoryconfirmed measles cases in Larut, Matang and Selama districts between 2015 and 2019. Multiple logistic regression analysis was used to determine the associated factors for laboratory-confirmed measles cases. Results: The incidence rate for suspected measles showed an increasing trend from 2015–2019. For laboratory-confirmed measles cases, the incidence rate showed more variation with an increase to 36.11 per million population in 2017 from 5.67 per million population in 2015. The incidence rate later decreased to 10.99 per million population in 2018 and increased again to 24.47 per million population in 2019. From multiple logistic regression analysis, cases that fulfilled the case definition of measles were more likely to be laboratory-confirmed measles. On the other hand, a prior history of measles immunisation was a protective factor. Conclusion: Measles incidence is increasing in trend. Any suspected measles cases that fulfilled the clinical case definitions need to be further investigated. Immunisation should be promoted as they are effective in preventing and eliminating measles.


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