scholarly journals Estimating Economic Losses Caused by COVID-19 under Multiple Control Measure Scenarios with a Coupled Infectious Disease—Economic Model: A Case Study in Wuhan, China

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (22) ◽  
pp. 11753
Author(s):  
Xingtian Chen ◽  
Wei Gong ◽  
Xiaoxu Wu ◽  
Wenwu Zhao
Keyword(s):  
Infectious Disease ◽  
Economic Model ◽  
Control Measure ◽  
Central Valley ◽  
Economic Cost ◽  
Assessment Method ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Multiple Control ◽  
Health Crisis

Background: The outbreak of the COVID-19 epidemic has caused an unprecedented public health crisis and drastically impacted the economy. The relationship between different control measures and economic losses becomes a research hotspot. Methods: In this study, the SEIR infectious disease model was revised and coupled with an economic model to quantify this nonlinear relationship in Wuhan. The control measures were parameterized into two factors: the effective number of daily contacts (people) (r); the average waiting time for quarantined patients (day) (g). Results: The parameter r has a threshold value that if r is less than 5 (people), the number of COVID-19 infected patients is very close to 0. A “central valley” around r = 5~6 can be observed, indicating an optimal control measure to reduce economic losses. A lower value of parameter g is beneficial to stop COVID-19 spread with a lower economic cost. Conclusion: The simulation results demonstrate that implementing strict control measures as early as possible can stop the spread of COVID-19 with a minimal economic impact. The quantitative assessment method in this study can be applied in other COVID-19 pandemic areas or countries.

scholarly journals INTEGRATED MANAGEMENT OF WEEDS IN A PERENNIAL CROP:THE EXAMPLE OF CRANBERRIES

HortScience ◽  
1992 ◽  
Vol 27 (11) ◽  
pp. 1163g-1163
Author(s):  
M.J. Else
Keyword(s):  
Pest Management ◽  
Insect Pests ◽  
Integrated Management ◽  
Control Measure ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
The Other ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Perennial Crops ◽  
Over Time

In Integrated Pest Management (IPM), the costs of a control measure are compared to the potential for economic losses caused by a pest, with control measures being recommended only when expected costs of losses exceed costs of control. IPM models have been developed largely for insect pests, which multiply rapidly and for which timely population assessments are thus essential. Weed pests, on the other hand, multiply slowly. In the case of perennial crops, weeds may not reach populations sufficient to warrant control under conventional IPM criteria for many years. It is proposed that IPM concepts be adapted to weedy pests of perennial crops by creating models in which the long-term costs and consequences of both weeds and weed control measures are considered. These models would take into account expected increases in control costs and decreases in effectiveness of control measures over time and as a consequence consider some weeds to have effective thresholds at or near zero.

Kaempferol inhibits pseudorabies virus replication in vitro through regulation of MAPKs and NF-κB signaling pathways

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xu Chen ◽  
Yaqin Chen ◽  
Zhongqiong Yin ◽  
Rui Wang ◽  
Huaiyue Hu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Signaling Pathways ◽  
Virus Replication ◽  
Pseudorabies Virus ◽  
Target Genes ◽  
Control Measure ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Signal Pathways ◽  
Dependent Manner

Abstract Pseudorabies virus (PRV), belonging to the family Herpesviridae, is a pathogen of Aujeszky’s disease leading great economic losses to pig industry. Re-outburst of pseudorabies implies that new control measures are urgent needed. The present study provides a candidate drug for PRV infection that kaempferol possesses the ability to inhibit PRV replication in a dose-dependent manner in vitro. Kaempferol at a concentration of 52.40 μM could decrease PRV-induced cell death by 90%. Kaempferol with a IC50 of 25.57μM is more effective than acyclovir (Positive control) with a IC 50 of 54.97 μM. Mode of action study indicated that kaempferol inhibited viral penetration and replication stages and virus load was decreased by 4-fold and 30-fold, respectively. Addition of kaempferol within 16 hours post infection (hpi) could significantly inhibit virus replication, and the DNA copies were decreased by almost 15-fold when kaempferol was added at 2 hpi. Kaempferol could regulate NF-κB and MAPKs signal pathways involved in PRV infection and change the levels of the target genes of MAPKs (ATF-2 and c-Jun) and NF-κB (IL-1α, IL-1β and IL-2) signaling pathways. All the results indicated that kaempferol has the ability to be an alternative control measure for PRV infection.¶ These authors contribute equally to this work and should be considered as the first author.

scholarly journals Shigellosis Dynamics: Modelling the Effects of Treatment, Sanitation, and Education in the Presence of Carriers

2020 ◽  
Vol 2020 ◽  
pp. 1-19
Author(s):  
Stephen Edward ◽  
Eunice Mureithi ◽  
Nyimvua Shaban
Keyword(s):  
Potential Role ◽  
Control Strategies ◽  
Control Measure ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Reproductive Number ◽  
Direct Transmission ◽  
Multiple Control ◽  
Globally Asymptotically Stable ◽  
Indirect Transmission ◽  
Dynamics Modelling

A mathematical model for Shigellosis including disease carriers with multiple control strategies is developed. We compute the effective reproductive number Re, which is used to analyze the local stability of the equilibria, while the comparison theorem is used to prove global stability. By constructing a suitable Lyapunov function, the model endemic equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable when Re>1. Sensitivity analysis is performed to investigate the parameters that have a high impact on the transmission dynamics of the disease with direct transmission contributing more infections than indirect transmission. The effects of control measures are then investigated both analytically and numerically. Numerical results show that there is a reduction in the number of infections when at least a single control measure is applied efficiently. However, as the number of control interventions increases, Shigellosis elimination is more possible. Results also show that carriers play a potential role in the prevalence of Shigellosis and ignoring these individuals could potentially undermine the efforts of containing this epidemic.

scholarly journals Antiviral activity of sulfated Chuanmingshen violaceum polysaccharide against Newcastle disease virus

2013 ◽  
Vol 94 (10) ◽  
pp. 2164-2174 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xu Song ◽  
Zhongqiong Yin ◽  
Xinghong Zhao ◽  
Anchun Cheng ◽  
Renyong Jia ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Antiviral Activity ◽  
Newcastle Disease Virus ◽  
Disease Virus ◽  
Newcastle Disease ◽  
Control Measure ◽  
Current Control ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Virus Adsorption

Newcastle disease virus (NDV) is a member of Paramyxovirinae subfamily and can infect most species of birds causing severe economic losses. The current control measure is vaccination, but infections cannot be completely prevented. It remains a constant threat to the poultry industry and new control measures are urgently needed. This study demonstrates that sulfated Chuanmingshen violaceum polysaccharides (sCVPSs) were potent inhibitors of NDV, with 50 % inhibitory concentrations (IC50) ranging from 62.55 to 76.31 µg ml−1 in Baby hamster kidney fibroblasts clone 21 (BHK-21) and from 101.57 to 125.90 µg ml−1 in chicken embryo fibroblasts (CEF). sCVPS is more effective than heparan sulfate (HS; as a positive control) with IC50 values of 99.28 µg ml−1 in BHK-21 and 118.79 µg ml−1 in CEF. sCVPSs and HS exhibit anti-NDV activity by prevention of the early stages of viral life. The mechanism of action study indicated that virus adsorption in BHK-21, and both virus adsorption and penetration in CEF were inhibited by sCVPSs. When the number of viruses was increased to an m.o.i. of 0.1 in the immunofluorescence study and to an m.o.i. of 1 in the fluorescent quantitative PCR study, viral infection was also significantly suppressed; the antiviral activity of sCVPSs was independent of the m.o.i. sCVPSs also prevented the cell-to-cell spread of NDV. In vivo tests carried out on specific pathogen-free (SPF) chickens showed that sCVPSs also inhibited virus multiplication in heart, liver, spleen, lung and kidney. These results indicated that sCVPSs perform more effectively than HS as antiviral agents against NDV, and can be further examined for their potential as an alternative control measure for NDV infection.

scholarly journals Combining control measures for more effective management of fisheries under uncertainty: quotas, effort limitation and protected areas

2005 ◽  
Vol 360 (1453) ◽  
pp. 133-146 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gunnar Stefansson ◽  
Andrew A. Rosenberg
Keyword(s):  
Control Measure ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Multiple Control ◽  
Closed Area ◽  
Management Scheme ◽  
Effective System ◽  
Short And Long Term ◽  
Explicit Dynamic ◽  
Stock Collapse

We consider combinations of three types of control measures for the management of fisheries when the input information for policy decisions is uncertain. The methods considered include effort controls, catch quotas and area closures. We simulated a hypothetical fishery loosely based on the Icelandic cod fishery, using a simple spatially explicit dynamic model. We compared the performance with respect to conserving the resource and economic return for each type of control measure alone and in combination. In general, combining more than one type of primary direct control on fishing provides a greater buffer to uncertainty than any single form of fishery control alone. Combining catch quota control with a large closed area is a most effective system for reducing the risk of stock collapse and maintaining both short and long–term economic performance. Effort controls can also be improved by adding closed areas to the management scheme. We recommend that multiple control methods be used wherever possible and that closed areas should be used to buffer uncertainty. To be effective, these closed areas must be large and exclude all principal gears to provide real protection from fishing mortality.

scholarly journals Risk Management Framework for Handling and Storage of Cargo at Major Ports in Malaysia towards Port Sustainability

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 516 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zuritah A. Kadir ◽  
Roslina Mohammad ◽  
Norazli Othman ◽  
Astuty Amrin ◽  
Mohd Nabil Muhtazaruddin ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Management ◽  
Control Measure ◽  
Assessment Method ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Risk Category ◽  
Risk Matrix ◽  
Management Framework ◽  
Risk Management Framework ◽  
Risk Assessment Method ◽  
Risk Reduction Measures

Risk management provides an effective method for ensuring safety and preventing accidents towards achieving port sustainability. This article describes a study of the implementation of a risk management framework for handling of cargo at ports. To achieve the study’s objectives, data was collected using a questionnaire and disseminated to port experts at three major ports in Malaysia. The collected data were analyzed using the Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS) software and calculated using risk matrix calculations. Based on the calculations, for port A and port B, 42% of risk falls under risk category II and 58% under risk category III. Meanwhile, for Port C, 31% under risk category II and 69% under risk category III. Risk reduction measures should be implemented within a defined period of time (12 months). Additional risk control measures were proposed accordingly. The novelty of the study was an improvement of risk management framework. The risk management framework was proposed with an introduction of risk frequency into risk rating calculation, risk criteria parameter for risk likelihood and risk severity, new risk matrix dimension and instruments to evaluate the existing control measure factor and new risk categories with five levels which provide more details and sustainable risk assessment method.

scholarly journals Economic model for calculation of direct and indirect economical losses from African swine fever occurrence

2019 ◽  
Vol 22 (2) ◽  
pp. 227-236 ◽  
Author(s):  
P. Ivanova ◽  
E. Ivanova
Keyword(s):  
Economic Model ◽  
African Swine Fever ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Passive Surveillance ◽  
The Status ◽  
And Control ◽  
Disease Free ◽  
Indirect Economic Losses ◽  
Economical Losses

This study aimed to develop a model for calculation of direct and indirect economic losses in the event of African swine fever (ASF) occurrence. Calculation of the costs included the category of the affected holdings together with the specific biosecurity measures maintained therein and control measures to be imposed in the event of disease. Various scenarios for active and passive surveillance of the disease were developed, in order to prove the absence of virus circulation and to restore the status of the areas as ASF disease free-country.

Developing, testing and application of rodent population dynamics and capture models based on an adjusted Leslie matrix-based population approach

2014 ◽  
Vol 07 (03) ◽  
pp. 1450024
Author(s):  
Liyong Fu ◽  
Shouzheng Tang ◽  
Yingan Liu ◽  
Ram P. Sharma ◽  
Huiru Zhang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Population Dynamics ◽  
Control Measure ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Leslie Matrix ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Optimal Harvesting ◽  
Dynamics Model ◽  
Population Dynamics Model ◽  
Significant Difference ◽  
Population Sizes

Small rodents in general and the multimammate rat Apodemus agrarius in particular, damage crops and cause major economic losses in China. Therefore, accurate predictions of the population size of A. agrarius and an efficient control strategy are urgently needed. We developed a population dynamics model by applying a Leslie matrix method, and a capture model based on optimal harvesting theory for A. agrarius. Our models were parametrized using demographic estimates from a capture–mark–recapture (CMR) study conducted on the Qinshui Forest Farm in Northwestern China. The population dynamics model incorporated 12 equally balanced age groups and included immigration and emigration parameters. The model was evaluated by assessing the predictions for four years based on the known starting population in 2004 from the 2004–2007 CMR data. The capture model incorporated two functional age categories (juvenile and adult) and used density-dependent and density-independent factors. The models were used to assess the effect of rodent control measures between 2004 and 2023 on population dynamics and the resulting numbers of rats. Three control measures affecting survival rates were considered. We found that the predicted population dynamics of A. agrarius between 2004 and 2007 compared favorably with the observed population dynamics. The models predicted that the population sizes of A. agrarius in the period between 2004 and 2023 under the control measure applied in August 2004 were very similar to the optimal population sizes, and no significant difference was found between the two population sizes. We recommend using the population dynamics and capture models based on CMR-estimated demographic schedules for rodent, provided these data are available. The models that we have developed have the potential to play an important role in predicting the effects of rodent management and in evaluating different control strategies.

Coronavirus: Towards controlling of the pandemic - Indian scenario

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (SPL1) ◽  
pp. 462-468
Author(s):  
Latika kothari ◽  
Sanskruti Wadatkar ◽  
Roshni Taori ◽  
Pavan Bajaj ◽  
Diksha Agrawal
Keyword(s):  
Control Measures ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Medical Treatments ◽  
Health Crisis ◽  
The Public ◽  
Infection Control Measures ◽  
The Social ◽  
Asking Questions ◽  
The Government ◽  
Novel Coronavirus

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a communicable infection caused by the novel coronavirus resulting in severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV). It was recognized to be a health crisis for the general population of international concern on 30th January 2020 and conceded as a pandemic on 11th March 2020. India is taking various measures to fight this invisible enemy by adopting different strategies and policies. To stop the COVID-19 from spreading, the Home Affairs Ministry and the health ministry, of India, has issued the nCoV 19 guidelines on travel. Screening for COVID-19 by asking questions about any symptoms, recent travel history, and exposure. India has been trying to get testing kits available. The government of India has enforced various laws like the social distancing, Janata curfew, strict lockdowns, screening door to door to control the spread of novel coronavirus. In this pandemic, innovative medical treatments are being explored, and a proper vaccine is being hunted to deal with the situation. Infection control measures are necessary to prevent the virus from further spreading and to help control the current situation. Thus, this review illustrates and explains the criteria provided by the government of India to the awareness of the public to prevent the spread of COVID-19.

Characterizing the effectiveness of COVID-19 mitigation measures: A data-centric approach (Preprint)

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lukman Olagoke ◽  
Ahmet E. Topcu
Keyword(s):  
Control Measure ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
World Health ◽  
Mitigation Measures ◽  
Effective Control ◽  
The World ◽  
Decision Making Processes ◽  
And Performance ◽  
Health Organization ◽  
The Impact

BACKGROUND COVID-19 represents a serious threat to both national health and economic systems. To curb this pandemic, the World Health Organization (WHO) issued a series of COVID-19 public safety guidelines. Different countries around the world initiated different measures in line with the WHO guidelines to mitigate and investigate the spread of COVID-19 in their territories. OBJECTIVE The aim of this paper is to quantitatively evaluate the effectiveness of these control measures using a data-centric approach. METHODS We begin with a simple text analysis of coronavirus-related articles and show that reports on similar outbreaks in the past strongly proposed similar control measures. This reaffirms the fact that these control measures are in order. Subsequently, we propose a simple performance statistic that quantifies general performance and performance under the different measures that were initiated. A density based clustering of based on performance statistic was carried out to group countries based on performance. RESULTS The performance statistic helps evaluate quantitatively the impact of COVID-19 control measures. Countries tend show variability in performance under different control measures. The performance statistic has negative correlation with cases of death which is a useful characteristics for COVID-19 control measure performance analysis. A web-based time-line visualization that enables comparison of performances and cases across continents and subregions is presented. CONCLUSIONS The performance metric is relevant for the analysis of the impact of COVID-19 control measures. This can help caregivers and policymakers identify effective control measures and reduce cases of death due to COVID-19. The interactive web visualizer provides easily digested and quick feedback to augment decision-making processes in the COVID-19 response measures evaluation. CLINICALTRIAL Not Applicable

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