scholarly journals Using Machine Learning Methods to Estimate the Cost of Housing

Author(s):  
V. Tretynyk ◽  
А. Voznyak ◽  
V. Domrachev

Introduction. Nowadays, the state has enshrined at the legislative level the definition of appraised value for tax purposes in sales of real estate as mandatory. The comparative approach most often used by appraisers has disadvantages such as the inability to find analogues in some cases and the need to make corrections, which affects the reliability of the results. The module of electronic determination of appraisal value (Module) similar to the object of property appraisal of the Unified database of appraisal reports works on the same approach and quite often overestimates appraisal value that leads to increase in the size of the tax during sales as the real estate cannot be sold for the price less than the estimated cost. Today to determine the price of an automated system correctly, it is necessary to fill the Unified Valuation Database in the State Property Fund with large knowledge bases - a huge IT system. So far, the thoughtless machine still determines the price by the average value. Currently there are often situations when the appraised value of real estate, determined by the Module, exceeds its real market value. Given that the approach used by the Valuation Module does not always give the correct result, there is a need to find a better method to determine the value of housing that could be used by the Module. The purpose of the paper. In this paper, an approach based on fuzzy logic was used to estimate the cost of housing in Kyiv. Fuzzy methods allow to apply a linguistic description of complex processes, to establish fuzzy relationships between concepts, to predict the behavior of the system, to create a set of alternative actions, to formally describe fuzzy decision-making rules. Results. The software implementation of the model in Python programming language was performed. Data for modeling were taken for the period July – October 2020 from a single database of property valuation reports. The sample contained 2133 records, it was filtered, divided into training and testing in the proportion of 85 : 15. To assess the quality of the program, the average relative error of the developed model was calculated. Keywords: fuzzy logic, machine learning, Python programming, linguistic variables, predictive model.

2020 ◽  
Vol 43 (338) ◽  
pp. 75-82
Author(s):  
Vladimir Surgelas ◽  
Irina Arhipova ◽  
Vivita Pukite

AbstractThe technical inspection of a building carried out by an expert in civil engineering can identify and classify the physical conditions of the real estate; this generates relevant information for the protection and safety of users. Given the real conditions of the property, and for the real estate valuation universe, using artificial intelligence and fuzzy logic, it is possible to obtain the market price associated with the physical conditions of the building. The objective of this experiment is to develop a property evaluation model using a civil engineering inspection form associated with artificial intelligence, and fuzzy logic, and also compare with market value to verify the applicability of this inspection form. Therefore, the methodology used is based on technical inspection of civil engineering regarding the state of conservation of properties according to the model used in Portugal and adapted to the reality of Latvia. Artificial intelligence is applied after obtaining data from that report. From this, association rules are obtained, which are used in the diffuse logic to obtain the price of the apartment per square meter, and for comparison with the market value. For this purpose, 48 samples of residential apartments located in the city of Jelgava in Latvia are used, with an inspection carried out from October to December 2019. The main result is the 9% error metric, which demonstrates the possibility of applying the method proposed in this experiment. Thus, for each apartment sample consulted, it resulted in the state of conservation and a market value associated.


Author(s):  
Olena HOLOVNYA

Today, the hotel and restaurant industry has become an integral part of the national economies of most countries of the world. The hotel and restaurant industry attracts attention as an independent component of the structure of the national economy. This industry is a locomotive of Ukraine's economic development and can provide significant technical, commercial and social benefits. In this regard, the priority is to determine the current trends in the hotel and restaurant industry, which is important for the effective functioning of the national economy of Ukraine. In a context of currency devaluation, and due to its rich cultural and recreational potential, Ukraine can become an attractive destination for foreign tourists at low prices. All this has a positive impact on the hotel market. In Ukraine, the volume of investment in the tourism industry has halved since 2010 and today accounts for up to 2% of total investment, which is significantly lower than in the countries of Eastern and Central Europe. For most countries of Central and Eastern Europe, the annual volume of investment in the tourist industry has remained unchanged since 2010. Poland (+23%), Czech Republic (+22%) and Romania (+22%) showed the largest increase in investments. In terms of investment, the hotel market is significantly different from other segments of commercial real estate. So, if for rental income owners of office and shopping centers sign medium-term and long-term contracts (at least 1 year), the receipt of income from operating activities of hotels is related to the daily strategy of the owner to attract and retain the hotel guests and find a healthy balance between revenues from rooms, cafes and restaurants, as well as other services offered by the hotel and expenses for them. As it is known, capital investment is the cost of acquiring new ones (as well as those that were in use), self-made for the own use of tangible and intangible assets; the cost of major repairs and upgrades. The development of capital investment in the hotel and restaurant industry in January-December 2017 increased compared to the same period in 2016. The main source of financing capital investments remains the own funds of enterprises and organizations, which accounts for 69.9% of the total volume. It is in view of the fact that for the effective management of the hotel necessary specific knowledge, as well as because the operating parameters of the hotel depend on many difficult predicted factors, the expected profitability of hotels is always 1-1,5% higher than for the best office or commercial centers. Almost complete absence of transactions in the segment of hotel real estate in Ukraine testifies to differences of expectations of owners and investors. Unfortunately, in most cases, in the process of formation of the price, the owners reset from the incurred funds, and not from the results of operating activities of hotels, which in turn does not suit potential investors. The indicator of profitability in the sphere of hotel and restaurant economy characterizes the attractiveness of business in this area for entrepreneurs. This indicator is one of the main criteria for assessing the efficiency of the enterprise. Between 2014 and 2016, the profitability of the enterprises of the hotel and restaurant business in Ukraine increased from -25.8% to -0.8%. In Kyiv among the analyzed cities, the lowest occupancy rate is 45.3%. At the same time, the average actual value of the highest number among the countries analyzed is 92.7 €, which indicates the imbalance of supply in the Ukrainian hotel services market. Political and economic instability in recent years, along with a significant increase in the number of offers, exert significant pressure on tariffs, while the hotel's occupancy rate and the current crisis did not exceed 60%. The bulk of the demand for hotel services is formed at the expense of representatives of the business segment (about 80% of them come from abroad, the remaining 20% – from regions of Ukraine). Their share is on average 65-80%, representatives of group and individual tourism form the rest. The negative impact on hotel business is also due to the fact that in the global booking systems Ukraine has been designated as a country whose entry is not recommended in terms of security, similar information is also available on the embassies' websites of some countries. Also, the low renting rooms in hotels can be explained not only by the unstable situation in the country, but also by the fact that in Ukraine the market of shadow services has been actively developing for several years now. Owners of apartments will specially equip them for the reception of foreign tourists for a short term. As a rule, private traders provide guests with a full range of additional services: they provide their transport, translator (if required), meals and other services. With low fixed costs and, often without paying taxes, "shadow" people receive sufficient working capital to maintain high quality services and expand business. In addition, the shady hotel business has the ability to flexibly operate prices depending on the demand and the season, it is beyond the scope of state regulation, so it does not face additional costs. In order to accelerate the development of the hotel and restaurant industry in Ukraine, the state should: provide tourists with comfortable and safe conditions for their arrival in Ukraine; to carry out an effective policy of development of mass tourism, to work out the corresponding concept; reduce hotel fees; to take measures to improve the state of monuments and create new objects of mass tourism; to make changes to land use laws, to the rules for issuing relevant permits to related industries, in order to attract investment in opening new recreational centers; create opportunities for the construction and operation of small motels and family-friendly hotels, which will provide jobs for the population and can be a source of foreign exchange earnings.


2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (24) ◽  
pp. 3047 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thomas Dimopoulos ◽  
Nikolaos Bakas

A recent study of property valuation literature indicated that the vast majority of researchers and academics in the field of real estate are focusing on Mass Appraisals rather than on the further development of the existing valuation methods. Researchers are using a variety of mathematical models used within the field of Machine Learning, which are applied to real estate valuations with high accuracy. On the other hand, it appears that professional valuers do not use these sophisticated models during daily practice, rather they operate using the traditional five methods. The Department of Lands and Surveys in Cyprus recently published the property values (General Valuation) for taxation purposes which were calculated by applying a hybrid model based on the Cost approach with the use of regression analysis in order to quantify the specific parameters of each property. In this paper, the authors propose a number of algorithms based on Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning approaches that improve the accuracy of these results significantly. The aim of this work is to investigate the capabilities of such models and how they can be used for the mass appraisal of properties, to highlight the importance of sensitivity analysis in such models and also to increase the transparency so that automated valuation models (AVM) can be used for the day-to-day work of the valuer.


Servis plus ◽  
10.12737/3898 ◽  
2014 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 85-91
Author(s):  
Анна Ларионова ◽  
Anna Larionova

The article considers the applicability of the comparative, income/capitalization, and cost approaches to hotel business evaluation. The author conducts research into the current trends that the market of commercial real estate demonstrates, paying special attention to transactions in Moscow´s hotel real estate market, and describes the application of the transaction and the price-animator method with reference to the hotel business specifics. As part of the research, the author calculates the values of such price animators as «hotel´s price rates/number of rooms», «price/revenue», «price/net profit», and identifies standard components used for amendments in the framework of the comparative approach. Among the components are scope of interest in land and real estate, hotel brand, hotel capacity and location, management quality, availability and lifecycle of additional divisions, investor´s aftersales reconstruction and inventory costs, sales terms (closing term, procurement of funds). On the basis of an assessment of the discounted cash flows, the author demonstrates the necessity of applying the income/capitalization approach, considers the limitations of the cost approach to evaluating a hotel business occupying an architecturally unique building, defines the advantages and drawbacks of the above-mentioned evaluation approaches as well as their application potential, and substantiates that the quality of evaluation depends on a comprehensive consideration of the specifics of the hotel industry.


Author(s):  
R. Volchek

The author's vision on the process of estimating the value of real estate objects for the purposes of taxation is given. It is established, that the current norms of valuation of property for taxation purposes, established by the main regulator of valuation activity in Ukraine − the State Property Fund of Ukraine, deprive transparency the process of valuation of property in our state, and offset personal accounting judgments when assessing real estate. Opacity and distortion of the current norms of normative legal acts regulating the process of valuation of property and property rights in Ukraine, as well as the norms of the International Financial Reporting Standards (further − IFRS) 13 «Fair Value Measurement» during the valuation of real estate objects, consists, according our opinion, representatives of the State Property Fund of Ukraine during the approval of property valuation reports for tax purposes are based on the estimated value of the objects, which should be determined solely on the basis of the prices of real estate offers and solely by means of a comparative approach. But, IFRS 13 «Fair Value Measurement» and National Standard 1 «General Principles of Valuation of Property and Property Rights» demand to determine the value of objects of evaluation in three methods: costly, cost-effective and comparative. Recommendations are introduced, implementation of which will allow to observe the transparency and correctness of determining the value of property for tax purposes.


2017 ◽  
Vol 6 ◽  
pp. 3-14
Author(s):  
Olena Slavinska ◽  
Vyacheslav Savenko ◽  
Lyudmila Bondarenko ◽  
Andrey Bubela

The conducted researches aimed to analyze modern models and methods of implementation of the comparative approach in property and real estate appraisal, to investigate and evaluate their effectiveness, to suggest ways of further improving the methods of property valuation. To achieve this aim, the authors carried out a series of computational experiments on a computer. The essence of these experiments was the comparative evaluation of the cost of test properties based on the following methods: expert evaluation, solving systems of linear algebraic equations, based on the normalized distances in the space of pricing factors and the correlation-regression method. An analysis was made of the influence of methods of digitizing the initial data (pricing factors) on the final cost of real estate. On the basis of the studies, prospective ways and directions for further improvement of the methods of property valuation are determined.


Author(s):  
I. V. Drozdova ◽  

The article analyzes the state of the primary and secondary residential real estate markets in St. Petersburg for the period from 2016 to 2020. The rating of developers leading in St. Petersburg in terms of the housing commissioning volume has been compiled. There have been identified the factors (economic sanctions, quarantine restrictions, devaluation of the ruble, inflation, decrease in the level of income of the population) influencing a decrease in the volume of housing commissioning, an increase in the cost and decrease in the affordability of housing in the primary and secondary residential real estate markets in 2019-2020. The trends in the development of residential real estate markets in St. Petersburg in 2021-2022 have been revealed.


2020 ◽  
Vol 26 (3) ◽  
pp. 685-697
Author(s):  
O.V. Shimko

Subject. The study analyzes generally accepted approaches to assessing the value of companies on the basis of financial statement data of ExxonMobil, Chevron, ConocoPhillips, Occidental Petroleum, Devon Energy, Anadarko Petroleum, EOG Resources, Apache, Marathon Oil, Imperial Oil, Suncor Energy, Husky Energy, Canadian Natural Resources, Royal Dutch Shell, Gazprom, Rosneft, LUKOIL, and others, for 1999—2018. Objectives. The aim is to determine the specifics of using the methods of cost, DFC, and comparative approaches to assessing the value of share capital of oil and gas companies. Methods. The study employs methods of statistical analysis and generalization of materials of scientific articles and official annual reports on the results of financial and economic activities of the largest public oil and gas corporations. Results. Based on the results of a comprehensive analysis, I identified advantages and disadvantages of standard approaches to assessing the value of oil and gas producers. Conclusions. The paper describes pros and cons of the said approaches. For instance, the cost approach is acceptable for assessing the minimum cost of small companies in the industry. The DFC-based approach complicates the reliability of medium-term forecasts for oil prices due to fluctuations in oil prices inherent in the industry, on which the net profit and free cash flow of companies depend to a large extent. The comparative approach enables to quickly determine the range of possible value of the corporation based on transactions data and current market situation.


Author(s):  
Vitaly Lobas ◽  
◽  
Elena Petryaeva ◽  

The article deals with modern mechanisms for managing social protection of the population by the state and the private sector. From the point of view of forms of state regulation of the sphere of social protection, system indicators usually include the state and dynamics of growth in the standard of living of the population, material goods, services and social guarantees for the poorly provided segments of the population. The main indicator among the above is the state of the consumer market, as one of the main factors in the development of the state. Priority areas of public administration with the use of various forms of social security have been identified. It should be emphasized that, despite the legislative conflicts that exist today in Ukraine, mandatory indexation of the cost of living is established, which is associated with inflation. Various scientists note that although the definition of the cost of living index has a well-established methodology, there are quite a lot of regional features in the structure of consumption. All this is due to restrictions that are included in the consumer basket of goods and different levels of socio-economic development of regions. The analysis of the establishment and periodic review of the minimum consumer budgets of the subsistence minimum and wages of the working population and the need to form state insurance funds for unforeseen circumstances is carried out. Considering in this context the levers of state management of social guarantees of the population, we drew attention to the crisis periods that are associated with the market transformation of the regional economy. In these conditions, there is a need to develop and implement new mechanisms and clusters in the system of socio-economic relations. The components of the mechanisms ofstate regulation ofsocial guarantees of the population are proposed. The deepening of market relations in the process of reforming the system of social protection of the population should be aimed at social well-being.


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