scholarly journals Статистический анализ влияния изменения климата на аграрный сектор экономики (на примере Ярославской области)

2019 ◽  
pp. 28-32
Author(s):  
V.V. Zholudeva
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Regression Analysis ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Climatic Factors ◽  
Multiple Correlation Coefficient ◽  
Coefficient Of Determination ◽  
Correlation And Regression Analysis ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Annual Amount ◽  
Positive Effect

Проведено исследование влияния происходящих в настоящее время климатических изменений на развитие сельского хозяйства Ярославской области. Выполнен корреляционнорегрессионный анализ, позволяющий выявить влияние средней температуры воздуха и среднегодового количества выпавших осадков на урожайность основных сельскохозяйственных культур, а именно, картофеля, зерновых культур и овощей открытого грунта. Результаты проведённого корреляционнорегрессионного анализа показали, что на урожайность данных культур оказывает небольшое положительное влияние рост температуры воздуха и отрицательное изменение количества выпавших осадков. Наибольшее положительное влияние происходящих климатических изменений было отмечено для зерновых культур. На основании полученных значений коэффициентов детерминации можно утверждать, что изменение урожайности зерновых в 17 случаев, картофеля в 8 и овощей открытого грунта в 14 случаев зависит от природноклиматических факторов. Сопоставление множественного коэффициента корреляции со шкалой силы связи Чеддока свидетельствует, что урожайность всех исследуемых сельскохозяйственных культур находится в слабой зависимости от совокупности климатических показателей, температуры воздуха и осадков.The research of the influence of current climate change on the development of agriculture in the Yaroslavl region has been conducted. A correlation and regression analysis has been performed to reveal the effect of the average air temperature and the average annual amount of past precipitation on the productivity of the main agricultural crops, namely, potatoes, cereals and field vegetables. The results of the correlation and regression analysis showed that the increase in air temperature has a slight positive effect on the yield of these crops and a negative one on the change in the amount of past precipitation. The greatest positive effect of ongoing climate change was noted for grain crops. On the ground of the obtained values of the coefficient of determination it can be argued that changes in cereal yields in 17 of cases, potatoes in 8 ones and field vegetables in 14 of cases depend on natural and climatic factors. A comparison of the multiple correlation coefficient with the Chaddock bond strength scale testifies that the productivity of all the studied crops is weakly dependent on the combination of climatic indicators, air temperature and precipitation.

scholarly journals PENGARUH DISIPLIN IBADAH SHOLAT, LINGKUNGAN SEKOLAH, DAN INTELEGENSI TERHADAP HASIL BELAJAR PESERTA DIDIK MATA PELAJARAN PENDIDIKAN AGAMA ISLAM

2018 ◽  
Vol 16 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Wahyu Bagja Sulfemi
Keyword(s):  
Regression Analysis ◽  
Public Schools ◽  
School Environment ◽  
Multiple Correlation Coefficient ◽  
Coefficient Of Determination ◽  
Survey Method ◽  
Test Analysis ◽  
Coefficient Of Correlation ◽  
Correlation And Regression Analysis ◽  
Coefficient Of Regression

 AbstractResearch aimed to study the worship disciplin analysis, school environment, and inteligence on the student’s learning result of the Islam Education (PAI) lesson at Senior High Schools (SMA) in all sub-districts of Pamijahan, Bogor district. This research used survey method with correlation and regression analysis. Population in this research was students from SMA Negeri (Public schools) in all sub-districts of Pamijahan, Bogor district. Meanwhile, samples were 60 students chosen randomly. Data collection obtained by delivering questionnaire and documentation. Data analysis used descriptive statistics, Pearson multiple correlation, coefficient of determination, and regression analysis. Statistical examination used t-test and F-test. Analysis results of worship discipline, school environment, and intelligence on student’s learning result of the PAI lesson were: (i) coefficient of correlation 0,865, (ii) coefficient of determination 73,67%, and (iii) linear regression = -43,84+0,335 X1+0,283 X2+0,417 X3. Test analysis showed that the coefficient of correlation and the coefficient of regression is significantly related. It showed the positive and significant relationship between (i) worship discipline, (ii) school environment, and (iii) intelligence and student’s learning result of the PAI lesson.Abstrak Penelitian bertujuan untuk mengetahui analisis disiplin ibadah sholat, lingkungan sekolah, dan intelegensi terhadap hasil belajar peserta didik Mata Pelajaran Pendidikan Agama Islam (PAI) di Sekolah Menengah Negeri se-Kecamatan Pamijahan Kabupaten Bogor. Metode penelitian yang digunakan adalah survey dengan analisis korelasi dan regresi. Populasi dari penelitian ini adalah peserta didik SMA Negeri ke-Kecamatan Pamijahan Kabupaten Bogor sedangkan sampel berukuran 60 orang peserta didik  yang dipilih secara random. Pengumpulan data dilakukan dengan mengisi kuesioner dan dokumentasi. Analisa data menggunakan statistik deskriptif, korelasi ganda Pearson, koefisien determinan dan analisis regresi. Uji statsitik dipergunakan uji-t dan uji-F. Hasil analisis disiplin ibadah sholat, lingkungan sekolah dan intelegensi, terhadap hasil belajar peserta didik pada mata pelajaran PAI diperoleh koefisien korelasi sebesar 0,865 dan koefisien determinasi sebesar 73,67%, serta persamaan garis regresi = -43,84+0,335 X1+0,283 X2+0,417 X3. Melalui analisa pengujian diperoleh bahwa koefisen korelasi dan koefisien regresi tersebut sangat signifikan. Hal tersebut membuktikan bahwa terdapat hubungan yang positif dan sangat signifikan antara disiplin ibadah sholat, lingkungan sekolah dan intelegensi, terhadap hasil belajar peserta didik Mata Pelajaran PAI.

scholarly journals Impact of Climate Change on Walnut Production in Biara Sub-District

2020 ◽  
Vol 7 (4) ◽  
pp. 487-506
Author(s):  
Pshtiwan Gharib Ghafur ◽  
Zhyan Sleman Hama ◽  
Khanda Saed Tofiq
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Regression Analysis ◽  
Analytical Method ◽  
Pearson Correlation ◽  
Effect Of Temperature ◽  
Coefficient Of Determination ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Irrigation Projects ◽  
The Impact

In this research is conducted about the impact of climate change on walnut production in Biara Sub-district. Descriptive – analytical method was utilized to obtain the proposed objectives by using SPSS – 16. The predominant objective of this analysis is to illustrate the inevitable impact of climate change on the walnut production in 1973-2017. The results on which the study was based on are Pearson Correlation which demonstrates that there is an indirect correlation between temperature and walnut production, and an equivalent relation with precipitation. For instance, in Multiple Regression Analysis, the impact of temperature and precipitation on small walnut trees is 4%, and on medium walnut trees is 25.8%, whereas on big walnut trees it is 24.8%. Moreover, in Coefficient of Determination, the effect of temperature on small walnut trees is 3.4%, on medium and large walnut trees increase to 18.6% and 24.7% respectively. However, precipitation impact is less than 1%, except medium walnut trees is less than 6%. The apparent wide gaps between temperature and precipitation which affects production is due to low topographic elevation and the presence of 82 springs in the study area. Additionally, an increase in temperature, a decrease in precipitation and subfreezing temperatures, in other words, chill dates, in spring time, ultimately leads to an increase in hazardous insects such as stem worms and beetle. These issues could be solved through selecting different varieties of walnuts and planting at higher elevation, construct more irrigation projects and regular irrigation, in particular during drought seasons, improving agricultural facilities and importing sufficient pesticides to tackle walnut trees diseases, is also among the precautionary methods.

scholarly journals Innovative Trend Analysis of Air Temperature and Precipitation in the Jinsha River Basin, China

Water ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (11) ◽  
pp. 3293
Author(s):  
Zengchuan Dong ◽  
Wenhao Jia ◽  
Ranjan Sarukkalige ◽  
Guobin Fu ◽  
Qing Meng ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Trend Analysis ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Climatic Factors ◽  
Trend Detection ◽  
Spatial Pattern Analysis ◽  
Jinsha River ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Innovative Trend Analysis

Trend detection based on hydroclimatological time series is crucial for understanding climate change. In this study, the innovative trend analysis (ITA) method was applied to investigate trends in air temperature and precipitation over the Jinsha River Basin (JRB), China, from 1961 to 2016 based on 40 meteorological stations. Climatic factors series were divided into three categories according to percentile, and the hidden trends were evaluated separately. The ITA results show that annual and seasonal temperatures have significantly increased whereas the variation range of annual temperature tended to narrow. Spatial pattern analysis of the temperature indicates that high elevation areas show more increasing trends than flat areas. Furthermore, according to ITA, significant increase trends are observed in annual precipitation and “high” category of spring precipitation. The sub-basins results show a significant decreasing trend in elevation zones of ≤2000 m and an increasing trend where elevation is >2000 m. Moreover, linkage between temperature and precipitation was analyzed and the potential impact of the combined changes was demonstrated. The results of this study provide a reference for future water resources planning in the JRB and will help advance the understanding of climate change in similar areas.

Prediction of seeding date in southern Alberta

1996 ◽  
Vol 76 (1) ◽  
pp. 59-65 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. J. Major ◽  
B. D. Hill ◽  
A. Touré
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Climate Change ◽  
Regression Analysis ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Empirical Model ◽  
Stepwise Regression ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Weather Variables ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Seeding Date

Predicting seeding date is an important component of modeling the impact of climate change on agricultural production. The objective of this study was to develop and evaluate models for predicting seeding dates based on weather variables. Data from 60 yr of a long-term experiment conducted on a silty clay loam (Dark Brown Chernozem) at Lethbridge, Alberta, were used for modeling seeding dates. Four approaches were used: an empirical model, a stepwise regression analysis, an iterative regression analysis, and a neural network (NN). An accuracy analysis was utilized to compare the results produced by the four methods. The best method was the NN model. It required 17 inputs, derived from date, air temperature and precipitation. The empirical model — which required that maximum temperature be at least 13 °C, that precipitation be less than 1 mm, and that the surface 15 cm of soil moisture be no greater than 90% of field capacity for four consecutive days — was the next best model. Stepwise regression identified air temperature and precipitation as the two most important weather variables. The predictive capability of this method was not satisfactory. Iterative regression analysis, also using maximum air temperature and precipitation, did not produce a satisfactory model. The stepwise and iterative regression methods predicted average seeding dates accurately but did not account for the variability in seeding dates. Key words: Neural network, climate change, model comparisons

scholarly journals Mapping Spatiotemporal Changes in Vegetation Growth Peak and the Response to Climate and Spring Phenology over Northeast China

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (23) ◽  
pp. 3977
Author(s):  
Xiaoying Wang ◽  
Yuke Zhou ◽  
Rihong Wen ◽  
Chenghu Zhou ◽  
Lili Xu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Northeast China ◽  
Climatic Factors ◽  
Spring Phenology ◽  
Entire Study ◽  
Vegetation Growth ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Spatiotemporal Changes ◽  
Vegetation Production

Global climate change has led to significant changes in seasonal rhythm events of vegetation growth, such as spring onset and autumn senescence. Spatiotemporal shifts in these vegetation phenological metrics have been widely reported over the globe. Vegetation growth peak represents plant photosynthesis capacity and responds to climate change. At present, spatiotemporal changes in vegetation growth peak characteristics (timing and maximum growth magnitude) and their underlying governing mechanisms remain unclear at regional scales. In this study, the spatiotemporal dynamics of vegetation growth peak in northeast China (NEC) was investigated using long-term NDVI time series. Then, the effects of climatic factors and spring phenology on vegetation growth peak were examined. Finally, the contribution of growth peak to vegetation production variability was estimated. The results of the phenological analysis indicate that the date of vegetation green up in spring and growth peak in summer generally present a delayed trend, while the amplitude of growth peak shows an increasing trend. There is an underlying cycle of 11 years in the vegetation growth peak of the entire study area. Air temperature and precipitation before the growing season have a small impact on vegetation growth peak amplitude both in its spatial extent and magnitude (mainly over grasslands) but have a significant influence on the date of the growth peak in the forests of the northern area. Spring green-up onset has a more significant impact on growth peak than air temperature and precipitation. Although green-up date plays a more pronounced role in controlling the amplitude of the growth peak in forests and grasslands, it also affects the date of growth peak in croplands. The amplitude of the growth peak has a significant effect on the inter-annual variability of vegetation production. The discrepant patterns of growth peak response to climate and phenology reflect the distinct adaptability of the vegetation growth peak to climate change, and result in different carbon sink patterns over the study area. The study of growth peak could improve our understanding of vegetation photosynthesis activity over various land covers and its contribution to carbon uptake.

scholarly journals Effects of climatic factors on the net primary productivity in the source region of Yangtze River, China

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhe Yuan ◽  
Yongqiang Wang ◽  
Jijun Xu ◽  
Zhiguang Wu
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Primary Productivity ◽  
Yangtze River ◽  
Net Primary Productivity ◽  
Climatic Factors ◽  
Source Region ◽  
Primary Reason ◽  
Vegetation Types ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Increasing Trend

AbstractThe ecosystem of the Source Region of Yangtze River (SRYR) is highly susceptible to climate change. In this study, the spatial–temporal variation of NPP from 2000 to 2014 was analyzed, using outputs of Carnegie–Ames–Stanford Approach model. Then the correlation characteristics of NPP and climatic factors were evaluated. The results indicate that: (1) The average NPP in the SRYR is 100.0 gC/m2 from 2000 to 2014, and it shows an increasing trend from northwest to southeast. The responses of NPP to altitude varied among the regions with the altitude below 3500 m, between 3500 to 4500 m and above 4500 m, which could be attributed to the altitude associated variations of climatic factors and vegetation types; (2) The total NPP of SRYR increased by 0.18 TgC per year in the context of the warmer and wetter climate during 2000–2014. The NPP was significantly and positively correlated with annual temperature and precipitation at interannual time scales. Temperature in February, March, May and September make greater contribution to NPP than that in other months. And precipitation in July played a more crucial role in influencing NPP than that in other months; (3) Climatic factors caused the NPP to increase in most of the SRYR. Impacts of human activities were concentrated mainly in downstream region and is the primary reason for declines in NPP.

scholarly journals Impact of Climate Change on Water Availability and Food Security of Nepal

2012 ◽  
pp. 59-63
Author(s):  
Roshan Kumar Mehta ◽  
Shree Chandra Shah
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Crop Production ◽  
Climatic Factors ◽  
Monsoon Season ◽  
Groundwater Table ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Aquatic Life ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Average Maximum ◽  
Water Scarce

The increase in the concentration of greenhouse gases (GHGs) in the atmosphere is widely believed to be causing climate change. It affects agriculture, forestry, human health, biodiversity, and snow cover and aquatic life. Changes in climatic factors like temperature, solar radiation and precipitation have potential to influence agrobiodiversity and its production. An average of 0.04°C/ year and 0.82 mm/year rise in annual average maximum temperature and precipitation respectively from 1975 to 2006 has been recorded in Nepal. Frequent droughts, rise in temperature, shortening of the monsoon season with high intensity rainfall, severe floods, landslides and mixed effects on agricultural biodiversity have been experienced in Nepal due to climatic changes. A survey done in the Chitwan District reveals that lowering of the groundwater table decreases production and that farmers are attracted to grow less water consuming crops during water scarce season. The groundwater table in the study area has lowered nearly one meter from that of 15 years ago as experienced by the farmers. Traditional varieties of rice have been replaced in the last 10 years by modern varieties, and by agricultural crops which demand more water for cultivation. The application of groundwater for irrigation has increased the cost of production and caused severe negative impacts on marginal crop production and agro-biodiversity. It is timely that suitable adaptive measures are identified in order to make Nepalese agriculture more resistant to the adverse impacts of climate change, especially those caused by erratic weather patterns such as the ones experienced recently.DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.3126/hn.v11i1.7206 Hydro Nepal Special Issue: Conference Proceedings 2012 pp.59-63

scholarly journals Influência de Mudanças Climáticas no Balanço Hídrico da Amazônia Ocidental (Influence of Climate Change on Water Budget of Western Amazonia)

2011 ◽  
Vol 3 (3) ◽  
pp. 170 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ailton Marcolino Liberato ◽  
José Ivaldo B. De Brito
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Soil Moisture ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Water Budget ◽  
Fire Risk ◽  
Climate Index ◽  
Climate Trends ◽  
Climatological Data ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation

A presente pesquisa teve por objetivo investigar possíveis alterações em componentes do balanço hídrico climático, associadas a diferentes cenários (A2 e B2) das mudanças climáticas do IPCC, para a Amazônia Ocidental (Acre, Amazonas, Rondônia e Roraima). Os dados climatológicos de temperatura do ar e totais de precipitação pluvial usados como referência neste estudo, são oriundos do INMET (1961-2005), da CEPLAC (1983-1999) e da reanálise do NCEP/NCAR (1983-1995). O método utilizado na elaboração do balanço hídrico é o de Thornthwaite e Mather (1957) modificado por Krishan (1980). Os resultados das projeções mostram tendência de clima mais seco, diminuição na umidade do solo, redução na vazão dos rios, aumento no risco de incêndio e diminuição no escoamento superficial e sub-superficial para a Amazônia Ocidental até 2100.Palavras-chave: cenários, índices climáticos, Amazônia. Influence of Climate Change on Water Budget of Western Amazonia ABSTRACTThe main objective of this study was investigate possible alterations in the climatic water budget components associated with different scenarios (A2 and B2) of the IPCC to Amazonian Western (Acre, Amazonas, Rondônia and Roraima). The climatological data of air temperature and precipitation from the INMET (1961-2005), CEPLAC (1983-1999) and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis (1983-1995) were used in the present study. The Thornthwaite and Mather (1955) method was used in the elaboration of the climatic water budget modified by Krishan (1980). The results of the projections show drier climate trends and decrease of the soil moisture, reduction in the rivers discharge, increase in the fire risk and decrease in the runoff for the Amazonian Western up to 2100. Keywords: scenarios, climate index, Amazonian.

scholarly journals Analysis of climate change in Dnipropetrovsk Region

2017 ◽  
pp. 43-51
Author(s):  
V. V. Hrynchak
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Climate Changes ◽  
Absolute Temperature ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Annual Precipitation ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Weather Observations ◽  
Average Annual Temperature

The decision about writing this article was made after familiarization with the "Brief Climatic Essay of Dnepropetrovsk City (prepared based on observations of 1886 – 1937)" written by the Head of the Dnipropetrovsk Weather Department of the Hydrometeorological Service A. N. Mikhailov. The guide has a very interesting fate: in 1943 it was taken by the Nazis from Dnipropetrovsk and in 1948 it returned from Berlin back to the Ukrainian Hydrometeorological and Environmental Directorate of the USSR, as evidenced by a respective entry on the Essay's second page. Having these invaluable materials and data of long-term weather observations in Dnipro city we decided to analyze climate changes in Dnipropetrovsk region. The article presents two 50-year periods, 1886-1937 and 1961-2015, as examples. Series of observations have a uniform and representative character because they were conducted using the same methodology and results processing. We compared two main characteristics of climate: air temperature and precipitation. The article describes changes of average annual temperature values and absolute temperature values. It specifies the shift of seasons' dates and change of seasons' duration. We studied the changes of annual precipitation and peculiarities of their seasonable distribution. Apart from that peculiarities of monthly rainfall fluctuations and their heterogeneity were specified. Since Dnipro city is located in the center of the region the identified tendencies mainly reflect changes of climatic conditions within the entire Dnipropetrovsk region.

scholarly journals Climate change and landscape-use patterns influence recent past distribution of giant pandas

2020 ◽  
Vol 287 (1929) ◽  
pp. 20200358
Author(s):  
Junfeng Tang ◽  
Ronald R. Swaisgood ◽  
Megan A. Owen ◽  
Xuzhe Zhao ◽  
Wei Wei ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Climatic Factors ◽  
Ailuropoda Melanoleuca ◽  
Seasonal Temperature ◽  
Negative Consequences ◽  
Giant Pandas ◽  
Use Patterns ◽  
Changing Climate ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation

Climate change is one of the most pervasive threats to biodiversity globally, yet the influence of climate relative to other drivers of species depletion and range contraction remain difficult to disentangle. Here, we examine climatic and non-climatic correlates of giant panda ( Ailuropoda melanoleuca ) distribution using a large-scale 30 year dataset to evaluate whether a changing climate has already influenced panda distribution. We document several climatic patterns, including increasing temperatures, and alterations to seasonal temperature and precipitation. We found that while climatic factors were the most influential predictors of panda distribution, their importance diminished over time, while landscape variables have become relatively more influential. We conclude that the panda's distribution has been influenced by changing climate, but conservation intervention to manage habitat is working to increasingly offset these negative consequences.

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