Exploring the Economic Slowdown of India

2020 ◽  
pp. 641-647
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Agricultural Sector ◽  
Bright Spot ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Consumption Expenditure ◽  
Industrial Output ◽  
Private Sector Investment ◽  
Gdp Growth Rate ◽  
Economic Slowdown ◽  
First Time

The GDP growth rate of India has been shrinking after 2016-17. Unemployment reached a 45-year high. The industrial output from the eight core sectors at the end of 2019 fell by 5.2 per cent, which was the worst in 14 years. Private sector investment had been stagnant for several years and declining in recent times, and consumption expenditure had also been falling, for the first time in several decades. Now, COVID-19 pandemic has added fuel to the fire by contracting growth rate of India to -23.9 per cent for the first quarter of the financial year 2020-21 as compared to that of the same quarter of last year. The COVID-19 pandemic has badly affected the manufacturing and services sectors. The agricultural sector remains the sole bright spot which recorded a growth rate of 3.37 per cent in the first quarter of 2020-21 against 2.97 per cent in the same quarter of last year.

scholarly journals Pengaruh Ekspor, Impor, dan Investasi terhadap Pertumbuhan Sektor Pertanian Indonesia

2018 ◽  
Vol 35 (1) ◽  
pp. 49
Author(s):  
NFN Suharjon ◽  
Sri Marwanti ◽  
Heru Irianto
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Impulse Response ◽  
Agricultural Sector ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Agricultural Export ◽  
Absolute Value ◽  
Gdp Growth Rate ◽  
Vector Auto Regression ◽  
Auto Regression

<p><strong>English</strong><br />Promoting agricultural sector is important for improving Indonesia economic performance. The objectives of the research are to determine the effects of levels and shocks of agricultural export, import, and investment on the growth (GDP) of the Indonesian agriculture sector. The research was conducted using quarterly time series data from 2000–2015. Vector Auto Regression analysis method was applied in this study. The causality analysis shows that the agricultural export, import, and investment levels do not significantly affect the agricultural GDP growth, but the agricultural GDP growth does significantly affect the level of agricultural export, import, and investment. The impulse response analysis shows that the investment response to GDP growth shocks is higher than that of export and import responses. The variance of decomposition analysis shows that the contribution of exports to agricultural GDP growth are larger than the contribution of imports and investments. This study concludes that the absolute value of the agricultural sector export, import, and investment do not affect the sector GDP growth rate, but the agricultural sector GDP growth rate affect the absolute value of the sector export, import, and investment in Indonesia.</p><p><br /><strong>Indonesian</strong><br />Mendorong pertumbuhan sektor pertanian Indonesia adalah penting untuk peningkatan kinerja perekonomian Indonesia. Tujuan penelitian adalah mengetahui pengaruh besaran dan goncangan (shock) ekspor, impor, dan investasi sektor pertanian terhadap pertumbuhan (GDP) sektor pertanian Indonesia. Penelitian dilakukan dengan menggunakan data time series triwulanan dari tahun 2000–2015. Penelitian menggunakan metode analisis Vector Auto Regression (VAR). Hasil analisis kausalitas menunjukkan bahwa ekspor, impor, dan investasi pertanian tidak berpengaruh nyata terhadap pertumbuhan PDB sektor pertanian, namun pertumbuhan PDB sektor pertanian berpengaruh nyata terhadap ekspor, impor, dan investasi pertanian. Hasil analisis impulse response menunjukkan bahwa respons investasi terhadap goncangan pertumbuhan PDB lebih besar dibandingkan respons besaran ekspor dan impor, Analisis variance decomposition menunjukkan kontribusi ekspor terhadap pertumbuhan PDB lebih besar dibandingkan dengan kontribusi impor dan investasi. Hasil penelitian ini menyimpulkan bahwa besaran absolut ekspor, impor, dan investasi pertanian tidak berpengaruh nyata terhadap laju pertumbuhan PDB sektor pertanian, namun pertumbuhan PDB sektor pertanian berpengaruh nyata terhadap besaran ekspor, impor, dan investasi pertanian di Indonesia.</p>

scholarly journals CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURE OF THE ELDERLY IN THE EUROPEAN UNION: CONVERGENCE AND IMPACT ON GDP

2021 ◽  
Vol 30 (30 (1)) ◽  
pp. 268-275
Author(s):  
Sanda Anca
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
European Union ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Ageing Population ◽  
Age Group ◽  
Consumption Expenditure ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Gdp Growth Rate ◽  
Convergence Process ◽  
The Impact

In the context of an ageing population, the aim of this study is to analyze how the consumption expenditure of the age group 50 plus affected the GDP growth rate during the period 2005-2019, at the level of the European Union countries. Using spatial econometrics, we study the convergence process of both the consumption expenditure of the 50 plus age group and the GDP. Furthermore, we analyze the relationship between the two variables and its evolution in time. We conclude that there is a bidirectional relationship between the studied variables: an increase in the growth rate of the 50 plus age consumption significantly and positively impacts the GDP growth rate and vice versa. At the level of Western European states where the share of 50 plus population is the highest, the impact on GDP growth rate is stronger. The results are relevant for further identifying possible economic opportunities created by the ageing population while supporting the European Union cohesion policy through the convergence process aimed at reaching an overall harmonious development within the member states and regions.

Managerial Remuneration in India: Analysing Trends before and during the Economic Slowdown

2018 ◽  
Vol 43 (3) ◽  
pp. 156-168
Author(s):  
Lakhwinder Singh Kang ◽  
Payal
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Important Implication ◽  
Time Frame ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Annual Growth Rate ◽  
Compound Annual Growth Rate ◽  
Gdp Growth Rate ◽  
Economic Slowdown ◽  
Almost All ◽  
The Impact

The present study seeks to analyse the growth of managerial remuneration in a sample of 150 listed companies in India over the years 2003 to 2012. The impact of slowdown period, that is, 2009–2012, on the managerial remuneration has also been investigated. In India, GDP growth rate fell down from 9.3 per cent in 2008 to 6.7 per cent in 2009 and afterwards never touched the mark of 9 per cent. The first section of time frame is from year 2003 to 2008 comprising of 6 years and second section starts from the year 2009 onwards, signifying the slowdown period of Indian economy. The present study finds a significant increase in the remuneration of directors in the slowdown period as compared to pre-slowdown era. However, compound annual growth rate (CAGR) is found to be significantly less in the slowdown period and this trend is visible in almost all industries, except transport equipments sector. Managerial remuneration also differs significantly across industries. The findings of the present article bring up important implication for press media and regulatory authorities that even during the slowdown period the remuneration was on an increase despite a fall in its CAGR.

scholarly journals Do Military Expenditure and Conflict Affect Economic Growth in Sri Lanka? Evidence from the ARDL Bounds Test Approach

2016 ◽  
Vol 8 (3) ◽  
pp. 1
Author(s):  
Abdul Rasheed Sithy Jesmy ◽  
Mohd Zaini Abd Karim ◽  
Shri Dewi Applanaidu
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Civil War ◽  
Sri Lanka ◽  
Military Expenditure ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Per Capita Gdp ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Gdp Growth Rate ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
Bounds Test

Conflicts in the form of civil war, ethnic tensions and political discord are of enduring concern and a major bottleneck to economic development in Sri Lanka. Three decades of civil war and unethical political culture have caused severe economic problems for the country, including slower rate of growth and a huge defence expenditure. The aim of this study is to examine the effect of military expenditure and conflict on per capita GDP growth rate in Sri Lanka from 1973 to 2014 using the Solow growth model and ARDL bounds test approach. The results of the bounds test are highly significant and lead to cointegration. The negative and significant coefficients of the error correction term illustrate the expected convergence process in the long-run dynamic of per capita GDP. The estimated empirical results show that, the coefficients of military expenditure and conflict are negative and statistically significant in the short-run as well as in the long-run in determining per capita GDP growth rate in Sri Lanka. Hence, it is critically important to take necessary action to decrease military expenditure and provide an efficient political solution to the problem of minorities, specifically in the post-war period.

Analyzing and management of health care expenditure and gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate by adaptive neuro-fuzzy technique

2016 ◽  
Vol 64 ◽  
pp. 524-530 ◽  
Author(s):  
Igor Mladenović ◽  
Miloš Milovančević ◽  
Svetlana Sokolov Mladenović ◽  
Vladislav Marjanović ◽  
Biljana Petković
Keyword(s):  
Health Care ◽  
Growth Rate ◽  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Health Care Expenditure ◽  
Domestic Product ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Gdp Growth Rate ◽  
Neuro Fuzzy

scholarly journals Assessment of the ripple effects and spatial heterogeneity of total losses in the capital of China after a great catastrophic shock

2017 ◽  
Vol 17 (3) ◽  
pp. 367-379 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhengtao Zhang ◽  
Ning Li ◽  
Wei Xie ◽  
Yu Liu ◽  
Jieling Feng ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Spatial Heterogeneity ◽  
Economic Loss ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Ripple Effect ◽  
Ripple Effects ◽  
Gdp Growth Rate ◽  
Direct Economic Loss ◽  
Indirect Economic Loss ◽  
Development Levels

Abstract. The total losses caused by natural disasters have spatial heterogeneity due to the different economic development levels inside the disaster-hit areas. This paper uses scenarios of direct economic loss to introduce the sectors' losses caused by the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake (2008 WCE) in Beijing, utilizing the Adaptive Regional Input–Output (ARIO) model and the Inter-regional ripple effect (IRRE) model. The purpose is to assess the ripple effects of indirect economic loss and spatial heterogeneity of both direct and indirect economic loss at the scale of the smallest administrative divisions of China (streets, villages, and towns). The results indicate that the district of Beijing with the most severe indirect economic loss is the Chaoyang District; the finance and insurance industry (15, see Table 1) of Chaowai Street suffers the most in the Chaoyang District, which is 1.46 times that of its direct economic loss. During 2008–2014, the average annual GDP (gross domestic product) growth rate of Beijing was decreased 3.63 % by the catastrophe. Compared with the 8 % of GDP growth rate target, the decreasing GDP growth rate is a significant and noticeable economic impact, and it can be efficiently mitigated by increasing rescue effort and by supporting the industries which are located in the seriously damaged regions.

scholarly journals The Relationship between Current Account Deficits and Growth in Montenegro: ARDL Bounds Testing Approach

2018 ◽  
Vol 7 (3) ◽  
pp. 5-24 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mustafa Özer ◽  
Jovana Žugić ◽  
Sonja Tomaš-Miskin
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Current Account ◽  
Current Account Deficit ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Bounds Testing ◽  
Current Account Deficits ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Gdp Growth Rate ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Relationship

Abstract In this study, we investigate the relationship between current account deficits and growth in Montenegro by applying the bounds testing (ARDL) approach to co-integration for the period from the third quarter of 2011 to the last quarter of 2016. The bounds tests suggest that the variables of interest are bound together in the long run when growth is the dependent variable. The results also confirm a bidirectional long run and short run causal relationship between current account deficits and growth. The short run results mostly indicate a negative relationship between changes in the current account deficit GDP ratio and the GDP growth rate. This means that any increase of the value of independent variable (current account deficit GDP ratio) will result in decrease of the rate of GDP growth and vice versa. The long-run effect of the current account deficit to GDP ratio on GDP growth is positive. The constant (β0) is positive but also the (β1), meaning that with the increase of CAD GDP ratio of 1 measuring unit, the GDP growth rate would grow by 0,5459. This positive and tight correlation could be explained by overlapping structure of the constituents of CAD and the drivers of GDP growth (such as tourism, energy sector, agriculture etc.). The results offer new perspectives and insights for new policy aiming for sustainable economic growth of Montenegro.

scholarly journals INNOVATION EFFECT THROUGH RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT ON ECONOMIC GROWTH IN 35 OECD COUNTRIES

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 159-166
Author(s):  
Maman Ali M. Moustapha ◽  
Qian Yu
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Growth Rate ◽  
Research And Development ◽  
Regression Model ◽  
Oecd Countries ◽  
Multiple Regression Model ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Real Gdp ◽  
Gdp Growth Rate ◽  
Development Expenditure

This paper analyzes the effect of research and development (R&#38;D) expenditures on economic growth in the Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) countries over the period 2000-2016. This study conducts an empirical analysis using a multiple regression model. The main findings confirm that an increase in research and development expenditure by 1% would generate an increase of real GDP growth rate to 2.83 %. The implication emerging from this study is that government and institutions need to increase investment in R&#38;D expenditures to fulfill inclusive economic growth perspective.

scholarly journals Assessing the Fiscal Sustainability of Government Finances in European Countries

2013 ◽  
Vol 52 (1) ◽  
pp. 87-93
Author(s):  
Yuriy Melnykov
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Unit Root ◽  
Statistical Approach ◽  
Fiscal Sustainability ◽  
European Countries ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Gdp Growth Rate

This paper analyses the fiscal sustainability of government finances in the 27 EU countries and Norway using an empirical, statistical approach and ADF tests for a unit root in the time series of the differences between the GDP growth rate and the long-term interest rate, and the primary balance.

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