scholarly journals STATISTICAL METHODS FOR FORECASTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF DEMOGRAPHIC INDICATORS IN UKRAINE: APPLICATION CONTEXT

2021 ◽  
pp. 183-204
Author(s):  
Mykhailo LUCHKO ◽  
Mariia SHESTERNIAK
Keyword(s):  
Statistical Methods ◽  
Specific Area ◽  
Statistical Modelling ◽  
Essential Information ◽  
Demographic Situation ◽  
Demographic Indicators ◽  
Demographic Processes ◽  
Modelling Methods ◽  
Future Population ◽  
Demographic Forecast

The article examines the demographic processes and indicators of Ukraine over the years of its independence. The essence of the concepts «forecast», «forecasting» and «demographic forecast» is considered. It is demonstrated that the results of the demographic forecast and the subsequent strategic analysis constitute essential information for substantiating the prediction of the main parameters of population indicators, future demographic situation and socioeconomic processes in a given area. The conditions for application of demographic forecasting methods are defined. The statistical methods that are most often used in practice to forecast the future population are grouped into methods of extrapolation, methods of shifting ages, methods of statistical modelling (methods of mathematical modelling), methods of expert evaluations. It is determined that in practice each group of statistical methods of demographic forecasting has its purpose, characterizes a specific demographic phenomenon and is applied to a specific area. Recommendations on using the optimal methods for forecasting and predictive calculations of future demographic indicators of Ukraine are suggested in order to ensure the analytical and predictive component of management.

scholarly journals STRESS REACTION OF PUBLIC HEALTH OF THE KAMBARKA REGION (UDMURTIA) TO PLACING OBJECTS OF ECOLOGICAL RISK

2020 ◽  
Vol 30 (3) ◽  
pp. 267-277
Author(s):  
I.L. Malkova ◽  
P.Yu. Sitnikov
Keyword(s):  
Population Decline ◽  
Chemical Weapons ◽  
Demographic Situation ◽  
Hazardous Waste Management ◽  
Demographic Indicators ◽  
Psychological Reaction ◽  
Udmurt Republic ◽  
Demographic Processes ◽  
Technical Complex ◽  
Statistical Indicators

An analysis of the dynamics of medical and statistical indicators of the Kambarka region showed a pronounced negative reaction of demographic processes to the placement and functioning of environmental risk objects: a chemical weapons destruction plant (2003-2009) and its conversion to an industrial and technical complex for processing, utilization and neutralization of wastes of I-II hazard classes (2019). The demographic situation in the Kambarka region over the past decades is characterized as the tensest among the cities and districts of the Udmurt Republic. The forecast for its development for the coming years is extremely unfavorable, which is manifested, first of all, in pronounced depopulation. The psychological reaction of the district’s population to the construction and launch of a chemical weapons destruction facility was reflected in the maximum death rate and natural population decline in Udmurtia. The stress response of demographic indicators to the placement of a complex for hazardous waste management can be more pronounced and more extended in time.

Multivariate mathematical-cartographic modeling demographic characteristics of Russian and European regions

2019 ◽  
Vol 953 (11) ◽  
pp. 26-36
Author(s):  
A.I Igonin ◽  
V.S. Tikunov
Keyword(s):  
Demographic Characteristics ◽  
Qualitative Assessment ◽  
Joint Analysis ◽  
Demographic Development ◽  
Demographic Situation ◽  
Demographic Indicators ◽  
Current Trends ◽  
Demographic Processes ◽  
Cartographic Modeling ◽  
Gis Environment

The study of modern trends in demographic development in Europe and Russia, in particular the assessment of spatial patterns of changes require updating the database of demographic indicators. To carry out a comparative analysis of current trends in demographic development in Europe and Russia, three sets of indicators characterizing the demographic state of the regions were formed. The calculation of indices of demographic development with different sets of indicators was made. A series of maps of the demographic situation and its dynamics in the GIS environment was developed. The joint analysis of all nine variants of the demographic state enabled developing a single, final index for assessing the demographic development of the territory. Multivariate mathematical-cartographic modeling helped performing a qualitative assessment of demographic processes and their changes. The implicit features and differences in the demographic characteristics of the regions are revealed. The application of classification algorithms to such a vast territory helps decision-making as part of a change in demographic policy.

scholarly journals SOCIO-ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT OF THE DEMOGRAPHIC SITUATION IN RUSSIA

2021 ◽  
Vol 45 (4) ◽  
pp. 89-97
Author(s):  
A.A. Tkachenko ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Life Expectancy ◽  
Economic Recession ◽  
Economic Assessment ◽  
Well Being ◽  
The State ◽  
State Funding ◽  
First Century ◽  
Demographic Situation ◽  
Demographic Indicators ◽  
Demographic Processes

The relevance of the study is associated with the need to study the reasons for the deterioration of the demographic situation in Russia, a significant increase in morbidity and mortality, which caused a decrease in life expectancy. The purpose of the study is to give a socio-economic assessment of measures taken by the state and to develop proposals aimed at revising the state funding priorities of national projects in the field of demography. The author applies methods of graphic, theoretical, and statistical analysis of domestic and international databases. Analysis of changes in the first two decades of the twenty-first century showed a decrease in life expectancy and an increase in mortality in recent years (even without considering diseases and mortality closely associated with COVID-19) and allows us to conclude that negative phenomena in the dynamics of demographic indicators are associated not only with the pandemic but also with the deterioration of the well-being of the population as a result of the economic recession. The modern demographic policy of Russia is experiencing an acute shortage of effective measures that contribute to the growth of birth rates. The institution of maternal capital is far from fully fulfilling its function, since the measure of financial assistance to families with minor children to increase their opportunities to improve the quality of the child's socialization showed a change in the structure of capital expenditures in favor of buying a home as an absolutely dominant orientation. The author notes that a comparative analysis of the demographic forecast up to 2035 and the dynamics of demographic processes showed that most of the socio-demographic goals set for 2030 cannot be achieved without changing the existing approaches.

scholarly journals DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS OF THE NUMBER AND AGE-SEX COMPOSITION OF THE POPULATION OF SAMARA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE XXI CENTURY

2020 ◽  
Vol 1 (30(57)) ◽  
pp. 7-11
Author(s):  
Nikolai A. Pervyshin
Keyword(s):  
Demographic Analysis ◽  
Demographic Situation ◽  
Demographic Indicators ◽  
Industrial Complexes ◽  
Working Age ◽  
Depth Study ◽  
Demographic Processes ◽  
The Russian Federation ◽  
Working Age Population ◽  
The City

Priority for the analysis of General trends in the dynamics of demographic processes in the Russian Federation is the study of medical and demographic indicators in territories that are important for the effective functioning and development of territorial industrial complexes (productions). An in-depth study of the demographic situation in the city of Samara for the period 1990 to 2018 allows us to identify factors that affect the morbidity and mortality of the working-age population in the region, as well as to determine the current directions for improving and developing medical services.

scholarly journals Demographics, Migration and Brain Drain in The Danube Region

2016 ◽  
Vol 54 (4) ◽  
pp. 469-483
Author(s):  
Mirko Savić ◽  
Stojanka Dakić
Keyword(s):  
Labour Market ◽  
Brain Drain ◽  
Labour Force ◽  
Working Life ◽  
Demographic Situation ◽  
Demographic Indicators ◽  
Active Labour ◽  
Danube Region ◽  
Migration Flows ◽  
Market Variables

AbstractIn the last two decades we have been witnessing the decrease of population in many countries of the Danube Region. All demographic indicators are unfavourable. Current demographic situation and labour market in the countries of the Danube Region is presented. The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the effects of demographic decline in the countries of the Danube Region on the key labour market variables and to model their behaviour. Also, the purpose of this paper is to analyse and discuss the possible consequences of demographic decline and the roles of migration and brain drain in the region. The main conclusion is that drop in the population growth is compensated with migration flows and prolongation of working life when it comes to the active labour force in the Danube Region, although population is still a main source of working force.

scholarly journals The regional differentiation of the demographic movements in the Republic of Macedonia

2016 ◽  
Vol 4 (3) ◽  
pp. 10-20 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mirjanka Madjevikj ◽  
Biljana Apostolovska Toshevska ◽  
Svemir Gorin ◽  
Marija Ljakoska
Keyword(s):  
Spatial Differentiation ◽  
Population Increase ◽  
Regional Differentiation ◽  
Demographic Situation ◽  
Republic Of Macedonia ◽  
Demographic Processes ◽  
The Republic ◽  
Complex Relationships ◽  
Economic Regions ◽  
Geographical Characteristics

Abstract The Republic of Macedonia covers an area of 25,713 km² and according to data from the census conducted in 2002, it has a population of 2,022,547 inhabitants. In the past, the Republic of Macedonia was characterized by some significant demographic changes, including a decline in the average annual rate of population increase. The enhanced immigration movements and sudden decline in the rates of natural population increase have led to changes in distribution of the population and to a spatial differentiation in the population. The long period of transition in the country has been reflected in the spatial development of the country and its demographic processes and to relocation of the population. The different natural-geographical characteristics, unequal regional development potentials, unequal economic development, and demographic characteristics have led to changes in the demographic situation of certain regions. The regions that continually lose part of its population clearly differ from these regions that are characterized by an increased population which is leading to a greater concentration of people in certain location. Further decades with a declining birth rate, followed by a change in the values of population increase, together with migration movements, particularly from the rural and less developed economic regions, has resulted in a decline in the population. The different zones of depopulation and concentration in a simple way express the complex relationships in the population composition.

scholarly journals Medico-demographic situation in prisons of Volga federal district in the period of the penal system reforming

2016 ◽  
Vol 97 (1) ◽  
pp. 124-130
Author(s):  
A M Tulenkov ◽  
E V Dyuzheva ◽  
K A Romanov
Keyword(s):  
Causes Of Death ◽  
Medical Service ◽  
Federal District ◽  
Penal System ◽  
Care Organization ◽  
Demographic Situation ◽  
Demographic Indicators ◽  
Number Of Patients ◽  
Service Activity ◽  
The Mean

Aim. To assess tendency in medico-demographic indicators of persons held in prisons of Volga Federal District in the period of the penal system modern reforming (2006-2014).Methods. Assessment of the studied contingent quantitative and qualitative medico-demographic indicators dynamics, the most relevant for the prisons for the 2006-2014. Forecasting of studied indicators for the period up to 2017 was conducted. Intensive and extensive indicators calculation and their dynamic comparison were performed.Results. Changes of demographic indicators for the 2006-2014 period involve the total number of prisoners reduction, the proportion of women increase and the proportion of teenagers decrease, reduction the punishment serving duration, migration processes intensification. The studied contingent, which was held in the prisons of the Volga Federal District, in the vast majority (91.0%) was presented by male persons. The mean age of convicted is 30.9 years. The mean term of punishment in prisons is 7.6 years. During the 2006-2014, the constant tendency of the studied contingent mortality increase due to the continuing increase in the number of patients with socially significant diseases amid decrease of the total number of persons held in prisons was registered. In 2014, the mortality rate was 7.1‰, which is 36.5% higher than in 2006 (5.2‰). The leading causes of death were infectious and parasitic diseases (37.1%). Studied medico-demographic indicators changes had significant regional features.Conclusion. Revealed significant changes in the medico-demographic indicators of studied contingent, definitely affecting the penalty system medical service activity, dictate the necessity of considering them when adopting the strategy of medical care organization in prisons.

scholarly journals Which data for quantitative landslide susceptibility mapping at operational scale? Case study of the Pays d'Auge plateau hillslopes (Normandy, France)

2013 ◽  
Vol 1 (2) ◽  
pp. 957-1000 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Fressard ◽  
Y. Thiery ◽  
O. Maquaire
Keyword(s):  
Landslide Susceptibility ◽  
Roc Curves ◽  
Statistical Modelling ◽  
Susceptibility Mapping ◽  
Landslide Susceptibility Mapping ◽  
Statistical Accuracy ◽  
Multivariate Statistical ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Modelling Methods

Abstract. The objective of this paper is to assess the impact of the datasets quality for the landslide susceptibility mapping using multivariate statistical modelling methods at detailed scale. This research is conducted in the Pays d'Auge plateau (Normandy, France) with a scale objective of 1/10000, in order to fit the French guidelines on risk assessment. Five sets of data of increasing quality (considering accuracy, scale fitting, geomophological significance) and cost of acquisition are used to map the landslide susceptibility using logistic regression. The best maps obtained with each set of data are compared on the basis of different statistical accuracy indicators (ROC curves and relative error calculation), linear cross correlation and expert opinion. The results highlights that only high quality sets of data supplied with detailed geomorphological variables (i.e. field inventory and surficial formations maps) can predict a satisfying proportion of landslides on the study area.

scholarly journals ASSESSMENT OF THE DEMOGRAPHIC SITUATION OF UKRAINE: NATURAL MOVEMENT AND POPULATION REPRODUCTION

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hanna Svydlo ◽  
◽  
Iryna Sierova ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Mortality Rate ◽  
Social Studies ◽  
Birth Rate ◽  
The State ◽  
National Academy Of Sciences ◽  
Demographic Situation ◽  
Factors Influencing ◽  
Natural Movement ◽  
Demographic Processes ◽  
Academy Of Sciences

Due to the difficult socio-economic situation and worsening of demographic situation, including the consequences of hostilities and ongoing occupation of the part of Ukraine, today the importance of population study and the research on the factors influencing its changes is increasing. During the study of demographic processes on the basis of a thorough analysis, strategic decisions relevant to the use and reproduction of the country's labour potential, stimulation of the birth rate, reduction of mortality, increase of natural population growth, prevention of depopulation processes, providing effective employment and improvement of social protection of the people are made. The demographic factor is one of the determinants for ensuring sustainable and safe development of the country, and the issue of demographic development should be considered as a factor and at the same time as a result of the functioning of the state. The main purpose of the study is to identify trends in the changes of the main indicators characterizing demographic processes in the country. Methodologically and informationally, this paper is based on the scientific works, the materials from reccurent publications and Internet, the laws and regula-tions and the data of the State Statistics Service of Ukraine and Ptoukha Institute for Demography and Social Studies of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine. The methods used in the study are structural and dynamic analysis, comparison and generalization of the data collected by the State Statistics Service of Ukraine and Ptoukha Institute for Demography and Social Studies of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine. During a study of a phenomenon or a process, first of all, the categorical apparatus is determined. Based on the purpose of the study, the concept of reproduction and natural movement of the population is defined and their theoretical description is given. This paper considers the reproduction of the population as the historically and socio-economically conditioned process of constant and continuous renewal of hu-man generations. Since the natural movement of the population is a process analysis of the birth and death of people, this paper considers such types of population reproduction as archetype, traditional type, transitional type and modern type. For the analysis of the natural movement of the population as a component of demographic safety, the following indicators were evaluated: average life expectancy at birth; depopulation rate; the overall mortality rate of the country's population; in-fant mortality (child mortality up to the age of 1); total birth rate; net reproduction rate; marriage rate; divorce rate. The findings of the analysis show that the main rea-son of the worsening of demographic situation is decrease in the birth rate and in-crease in the mortality rate. Currently, the birth rate in Ukraine is largely limited by both economic factors (insufficient wages, shortage of jobs) and social factors (changes in reproductive habits and norms expressed in the popularity of single-parent families). The analysis revealed socio-economic factors influencing the demo-graphic situation in Ukraine.

Modern social demographic situation in Stavropol region

2020 ◽  
pp. 109-116
Author(s):  
N.N. Sotnikova ◽  
◽  
K.I. Kostyukov ◽  
T.A. Svechinskaya
Keyword(s):  
Demographic Situation ◽  
Demographic Indicators ◽  
Stavropol Region ◽  
Social Demographic

Examined are features of regional social demographic situation, characterized by lowering of birth, preserving of natural depopulation and growing old of population. Researched are principal demographic indicators of Stavropol region. Elaborated are reasons of peoples’ depopulation. Special attention is paid to problems of family institution, support of young families and regulation of level of life of population.

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