Multivariate mathematical-cartographic modeling demographic characteristics of Russian and European regions

2019 ◽  
Vol 953 (11) ◽  
pp. 26-36
Author(s):  
A.I Igonin ◽  
V.S. Tikunov
Keyword(s):  
Demographic Characteristics ◽  
Qualitative Assessment ◽  
Joint Analysis ◽  
Demographic Development ◽  
Demographic Situation ◽  
Demographic Indicators ◽  
Current Trends ◽  
Demographic Processes ◽  
Cartographic Modeling ◽  
Gis Environment

The study of modern trends in demographic development in Europe and Russia, in particular the assessment of spatial patterns of changes require updating the database of demographic indicators. To carry out a comparative analysis of current trends in demographic development in Europe and Russia, three sets of indicators characterizing the demographic state of the regions were formed. The calculation of indices of demographic development with different sets of indicators was made. A series of maps of the demographic situation and its dynamics in the GIS environment was developed. The joint analysis of all nine variants of the demographic state enabled developing a single, final index for assessing the demographic development of the territory. Multivariate mathematical-cartographic modeling helped performing a qualitative assessment of demographic processes and their changes. The implicit features and differences in the demographic characteristics of the regions are revealed. The application of classification algorithms to such a vast territory helps decision-making as part of a change in demographic policy.

scholarly journals STRESS REACTION OF PUBLIC HEALTH OF THE KAMBARKA REGION (UDMURTIA) TO PLACING OBJECTS OF ECOLOGICAL RISK

2020 ◽  
Vol 30 (3) ◽  
pp. 267-277
Author(s):  
I.L. Malkova ◽  
P.Yu. Sitnikov
Keyword(s):  
Population Decline ◽  
Chemical Weapons ◽  
Demographic Situation ◽  
Hazardous Waste Management ◽  
Demographic Indicators ◽  
Psychological Reaction ◽  
Udmurt Republic ◽  
Demographic Processes ◽  
Technical Complex ◽  
Statistical Indicators

An analysis of the dynamics of medical and statistical indicators of the Kambarka region showed a pronounced negative reaction of demographic processes to the placement and functioning of environmental risk objects: a chemical weapons destruction plant (2003-2009) and its conversion to an industrial and technical complex for processing, utilization and neutralization of wastes of I-II hazard classes (2019). The demographic situation in the Kambarka region over the past decades is characterized as the tensest among the cities and districts of the Udmurt Republic. The forecast for its development for the coming years is extremely unfavorable, which is manifested, first of all, in pronounced depopulation. The psychological reaction of the district’s population to the construction and launch of a chemical weapons destruction facility was reflected in the maximum death rate and natural population decline in Udmurtia. The stress response of demographic indicators to the placement of a complex for hazardous waste management can be more pronounced and more extended in time.

scholarly journals MODERN MIGRATION SITUATION IN KRASNODAR REGION

2021 ◽  
Vol 1 (6) ◽  
pp. 291-295
Author(s):  
T.T. Тarasova ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Population Change ◽  
Population Decline ◽  
Federal District ◽  
Demographic Development ◽  
Demographic Situation ◽  
Net Migration ◽  
Demographic Indicators ◽  
Coronavirus Infection ◽  
Determining Factor ◽  
Total Migration

t. Based on statistical data, the article analyzes the transformation of the migration movement of the population of the Krasnodar Territory in the context of natural decline and a pandemic of coronavirus infection. It is shown that in the region, as well as in Russia as a whole, there is a deterioration in demographic development. Due to the excess of the death rate over the birth rate in the region, the natural population decline resumed in 2017, the volume of which increased 8.5 times by 2020. The demographic indicators worsened especially noticeably in 2020, primarily in relation to the mortality rate of the population, the level of which has sharply increased. Despite the deteriorating demographic situation, the number of residents of the Kuban continued to increase, while in the Russian Federation in recent years the absolute population began to decline. An analysis of the components of population change showed that the determining factor in the increase in the number of Kuban residents was migration gain, which not only compensated for the natural decline in the population, but also ensured an increase in the number of inhabitants of the region. It was revealed that significant changes took place in the migration movement of the Krasnodar Territory in the analyzed period: the intensity of migration processes has noticeably decreased, and in recent years, the volume of net migration has also decreased. The region’s contribution to the total migration gains of the Southern Federal District has significantly decreased - in 2020 the region’s share in the total migration growth of the district amounted to only 31.6% versus 78.9% in 2017. The decrease in the volume of net migration was mainly due to a decrease in the number of arrivals to the region, which is not least due to quarantine measures to combat the pandemic

Assessment of demographic indicators in the Krasnodar region and the Krasnodar city

10.12737/7218 ◽  
2014 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 0-0
Author(s):  
Шаповалов ◽  
K. Shapovalov
Keyword(s):  
Birth Rate ◽  
Circulatory System ◽  
Infant Mortality Rate ◽  
Demographic Development ◽  
Demographic Situation ◽  
Demographic Indicators ◽  
Demographic Dynamics ◽  
National Priority ◽  
Krasnodar Region ◽  
The City

The study evaluates the changes in the present demographic situation in the Krasnodar region and the capital of the region – the Krasnodar city. By studying the recent history, the region is characterized by significant changes in the demographic dynamics: revealed an increase in the birth rate, a reduction in mortality, there is a steady natural growth. In 2013, the birth rate was a record for the Krasnodar Region and Krasnodar. The structure of mortality rates, where in the first place remains a disease of the circulatory system, was revealed. In the Krasnodar region, the infant mortality rate for 2014 was declined, and, in Krasnodar city, on the contrary, this indicator was increased. At the same time in the city there is a decrease in mortality among child-ren aged 1-4 years, but the increase in the Krasnodar region. Implementation of the Concept of Demographic Policy of the Russian Federation for the period up to 2025 and the national priority project "Health", launched in 2006, is the foundation of positive changes. In Krasnodar region the program "On Improvement of the Demographic Situation in the Krasnodar Region" was implemented in 2008-2010. These programs are aimed at stabilizing the population and the formation of socio-economic conditions subsequent to the demographic development. To further improve the demographic situa-tion, the program of the Krasnodar region "Health Development" has been implemented since 2012. Now a new target program "About the Improvement of the Demographic Situation in the Krasnodar Region" was developed for 2011-2015.

scholarly journals STATISTICAL METHODS FOR FORECASTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF DEMOGRAPHIC INDICATORS IN UKRAINE: APPLICATION CONTEXT

2021 ◽  
pp. 183-204
Author(s):  
Mykhailo LUCHKO ◽  
Mariia SHESTERNIAK
Keyword(s):  
Statistical Methods ◽  
Specific Area ◽  
Statistical Modelling ◽  
Essential Information ◽  
Demographic Situation ◽  
Demographic Indicators ◽  
Demographic Processes ◽  
Modelling Methods ◽  
Future Population ◽  
Demographic Forecast

The article examines the demographic processes and indicators of Ukraine over the years of its independence. The essence of the concepts «forecast», «forecasting» and «demographic forecast» is considered. It is demonstrated that the results of the demographic forecast and the subsequent strategic analysis constitute essential information for substantiating the prediction of the main parameters of population indicators, future demographic situation and socioeconomic processes in a given area. The conditions for application of demographic forecasting methods are defined. The statistical methods that are most often used in practice to forecast the future population are grouped into methods of extrapolation, methods of shifting ages, methods of statistical modelling (methods of mathematical modelling), methods of expert evaluations. It is determined that in practice each group of statistical methods of demographic forecasting has its purpose, characterizes a specific demographic phenomenon and is applied to a specific area. Recommendations on using the optimal methods for forecasting and predictive calculations of future demographic indicators of Ukraine are suggested in order to ensure the analytical and predictive component of management.

Study of the Historical Demography of Kyrgyzstan in the 20th — Early 21st Centuries. Part one

2021 ◽  
pp. 71-75
Author(s):  
R.T. Elemanova
Keyword(s):  
Historical Demography ◽  
Population Census ◽  
Historical Science ◽  
Demographic Development ◽  
Cultural Changes ◽  
Demographic Indicators ◽  
Demographic Processes ◽  
History Of ◽  
The Republic ◽  
The Impact

The article is the first part of the study, which examines the issues related to the study of the history of population and historical demography of Kyrgyzstan. The emphasis is made on the issues of historiography on the basis of scientific literature on the problems of history and demography of Kyrgyzstan in the 20th — 21st centuries. The analysis and assessment of the main demographic indicators of the population of Kyrgyzstan in the Soviet and post-Soviet periods is considered, the process of change in demographic policy, as well as its impact on the socio-economic situation in the republic, are analyzed. It is concluded that the historiography of the historical demography of Kyrgyzstan is based on macro approaches to the study of demography processes, which was typical for Soviet historical science as a whole. The main problems of studying the history of the population of Kyrgyzstan, to which researchers were addressed, were the population census, changes in the number and distribution of the Kyrgyz, the impact of the 1916 uprising. on the demographic development of the Kyrgyz people, the settlement of nomads on the land, socio-cultural changes in Kyrgyzstan and their impact on the change of demographic characteristics. Much attention was also paid to public policy in the field of governance and influence on demographic processes.

Demographic reproduction of young generation of the Orel region

2016 ◽  
Vol 11 (3) ◽  
pp. 12-27
Author(s):  
Проказина ◽  
Natalya Prokazina ◽  
Меркулов ◽  
Pavel Merkulov ◽  
Перевозкин ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Statistical Data ◽  
Positive Development ◽  
Young Generation ◽  
Demographic Development ◽  
Demographic Situation ◽  
Young Family ◽  
Demographic Processes

In the article on the basis of analysis of statistical data the main characteristics of the demographic processes are considered that have a significant impact on the demographic situation as a whole. The authors focus on the analysis of the demographic reproduction of the young generation of the Orel region. The dynamics of indicators for five years shows that Orel demographic development is characterized by a certain instability for the last five years. The authors argue that in the current unfavorable demographic situation the most attention should be paid to the problems of young family, as it can be included actively in the positive development of the process of reproduction of the population.

Medical and demographic particularities of municipalities in the Republic of Karelia

2020 ◽  
Vol 18 (5) ◽  
pp. 966-991
Author(s):  
E.V. Molchanova
Keyword(s):  
Economic Transformation ◽  
Mathematical Methods ◽  
Demographic Development ◽  
The Public ◽  
Demographic Indicators ◽  
Regional Medical ◽  
Demographic Processes ◽  
The Republic ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Development Methods

Subject. This article explores the medical and demographic processes in the Republic of Karelia. Objectives. The article aims to assess the impact of various factors on regional medical and demographic processes in the context of socio-economic transformation and digital healthcare development. Methods. For the study, I used a comparative analysis and economic and mathematical methods. Results. The article reveals demographic features of population resettlement in the Republic of Karelia and patterns of medical and demographic processes in the municipalities of the region. It describes the relationship between socio-economic and medical and demographic indicators, and identifies the benefits and possible risk of introducing modern technologies into real clinical practice. Conclusions. There are certain man-environment relationships that affect the public health. These relationships need to be taken into account when forming demographic development programmes.

scholarly journals SOCIO-ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT OF THE DEMOGRAPHIC SITUATION IN RUSSIA

2021 ◽  
Vol 45 (4) ◽  
pp. 89-97
Author(s):  
A.A. Tkachenko ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Life Expectancy ◽  
Economic Recession ◽  
Economic Assessment ◽  
Well Being ◽  
The State ◽  
State Funding ◽  
First Century ◽  
Demographic Situation ◽  
Demographic Indicators ◽  
Demographic Processes

The relevance of the study is associated with the need to study the reasons for the deterioration of the demographic situation in Russia, a significant increase in morbidity and mortality, which caused a decrease in life expectancy. The purpose of the study is to give a socio-economic assessment of measures taken by the state and to develop proposals aimed at revising the state funding priorities of national projects in the field of demography. The author applies methods of graphic, theoretical, and statistical analysis of domestic and international databases. Analysis of changes in the first two decades of the twenty-first century showed a decrease in life expectancy and an increase in mortality in recent years (even without considering diseases and mortality closely associated with COVID-19) and allows us to conclude that negative phenomena in the dynamics of demographic indicators are associated not only with the pandemic but also with the deterioration of the well-being of the population as a result of the economic recession. The modern demographic policy of Russia is experiencing an acute shortage of effective measures that contribute to the growth of birth rates. The institution of maternal capital is far from fully fulfilling its function, since the measure of financial assistance to families with minor children to increase their opportunities to improve the quality of the child's socialization showed a change in the structure of capital expenditures in favor of buying a home as an absolutely dominant orientation. The author notes that a comparative analysis of the demographic forecast up to 2035 and the dynamics of demographic processes showed that most of the socio-demographic goals set for 2030 cannot be achieved without changing the existing approaches.

scholarly journals DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS OF THE NUMBER AND AGE-SEX COMPOSITION OF THE POPULATION OF SAMARA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE XXI CENTURY

2020 ◽  
Vol 1 (30(57)) ◽  
pp. 7-11
Author(s):  
Nikolai A. Pervyshin
Keyword(s):  
Demographic Analysis ◽  
Demographic Situation ◽  
Demographic Indicators ◽  
Industrial Complexes ◽  
Working Age ◽  
Depth Study ◽  
Demographic Processes ◽  
The Russian Federation ◽  
Working Age Population ◽  
The City

Priority for the analysis of General trends in the dynamics of demographic processes in the Russian Federation is the study of medical and demographic indicators in territories that are important for the effective functioning and development of territorial industrial complexes (productions). An in-depth study of the demographic situation in the city of Samara for the period 1990 to 2018 allows us to identify factors that affect the morbidity and mortality of the working-age population in the region, as well as to determine the current directions for improving and developing medical services.

scholarly journals Main characteristics of demographic development of eastern Herzegovina in the second half of the 20th century and at the beginning of the 21st century

2014 ◽  
pp. 727-735
Author(s):  
Radoslav Corovic
Keyword(s):  
Spatial Distribution ◽  
Total Population ◽  
Census Data ◽  
Natural Increase ◽  
Population Ageing ◽  
Population Development ◽  
Demographic Development ◽  
Demographic Indicators ◽  
Demographic Processes ◽  
And Migration

At the beginning of the observed period, the population dynamics in Eastern Herzegovina was characterized by stagnation, followed by the decrease of the total population, primarily due to traditionally present emigration, but also due to negative natural population growth. Birth rates decreasing processes, population ageing, and some other predominantly negative demographic processes have been reported for decades. This area has a low population density, while spatial distribution of the population is characterized by concentration in settlements which have the function of a municipal centre. Contemporary demographic indicators (of natural increase of population and migration) indicate further decrease in population of this region, especially of its rural parts. This is also shown by the previous 2013 Census data. Keeping in mind the current demographic indicators and characteristics of the population, side by side with weak economic development of this region, it may be expected that negative trends in population development will continue.

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