SIMULATION MODELING OF INVESTMENT PROJECT RISKS IN OIL PRODUCTION

2020 ◽  
Vol 3 (12) ◽  
pp. 24-35
Author(s):  
L. V. GUSAROVA ◽  
◽  
Ch. S. ZAKIROVA ◽  
L. N. KRASNOVA ◽  
А. R. MAKHMUTSHINA ◽  
...  

In the article, the practical application of simulation modeling by the Monte Carlo method. Two realizations of the project are analyzed – with and without seismic survey, the effects obtained from them are compared. The characteristic of the Bashkirian stage of the Arkhangelsk field is given, the technical and economic effect of the measures taken is estimated. Modeling of risks is carried out, an assessment of the value of information is given by the method of value of information. Evaluates the effective implementation of the project on the technical and economic indicators of the enterprise and the cost of production.

2019 ◽  
Vol 110 ◽  
pp. 02018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Aleksandr Bril ◽  
Olga Kalinina ◽  
Alina Kankovskaya ◽  
Viktoria Vilken

Projects on environmental protection and personnel management have a significant impact on the level of fixed costs and changes in operational risks of industrial enterprises. The most effective implementation of these projects is possible at the stages of production growth and expansion of sales of companies. At the stages of recession, this work requires strict control over the level of operational risk and changes in the share of fixed costs in the cost of production. Improving the efficiency of environmental and personnel management projects requires maintaining an optimal level of operational risk. It is proposed to retain project risks at the planned level by controlling and regulating the amount of fixed costs at the enterprises. Various regulatory systems are proposed for periods of recovery and recession of economic activity of enterprises.


2020 ◽  
Vol 164 ◽  
pp. 09026
Author(s):  
Kirill Zhichkin ◽  
Vladimir Nosov ◽  
Lyudmila Zhichkina ◽  
Elena Kuznetsova ◽  
Yury Abramov ◽  
...  

The article discusses the economic issues of biodiesel use in agricultural production. Study purpose: determination of the biodiesel production basic economic parameters for agricultural needs. Costs of biodiesel production, formation when using different crops, and costs of replacing traditional diesel fuel are calculated based on an example of a specific enterprise. To solve the problem posed in the study, used specialized software for calculating technological maps in crop production. As a result of the study, it was determined that the own production of biodiesel in the agricultural enterprise conditions is economically justified even at an oil prices low world level. Thanks to the implementation of the investment project to create biodiesel production, it is possible to reduce the cost of fuel and lubricants and thus increase production efficiency. Every year in the conditions of the economy from the use of biodiesel, an economic effect of 2358.7 thousand rubles can be reached.


Author(s):  
I. F. Gorlov ◽  
A. A. Mosolov ◽  
G. V. Komlatskiy ◽  
M. A. Nesterenko ◽  
K. D. Nimbona ◽  
...  

The article presents materials on the study of the possibility of reproduction and increase in the herd of highly productive cows through the use of embryo transplantation technology. The classical (in vivo) and more modern, developing (in vitro) methods of embryotransfer, their positive and negative sides are considered in detail. The possibility of accelerating the breeding process by using the method of transplantation, in which from one cow can be obtained from 10 to 100 calves, which will allow for 4-5 years, almost any herd (of any size and breed) with the help of biotechnology to turn into a cattle-breeding enterprise of the most modern level. At the same time, heifers obtained from unproductive cows can be used as "surrogate" mothers who are transplanted with the best donor embryos, which allows to obtain a full-fledged offspring adapted to local environmental conditions. A detailed scheme of obtaining, evaluation, storage, as well as the cost and economic effect of embryo transplantation was calculated, the market was evaluated, the required annual volume of transplants and the number of donor cows for large livestock farms were determined. As a positive example of "Scientific-production enterprise "Centre of biotechnology and embryo transfer" in 2014, implemented a project for accelerated replacement and genetic improvement of the dairy herd, engraftment averaged 57-69%, and the economic effect of the enterprise from getting a single animal by the method of embryo transfer, compared with imports of similar close in quality, ranged from 60 to 100 thousand rubles on his head. It is shown that it is necessary to organize at the state level a developed service for embryo transplantation to reduce the cost of embryo transfer and the possibility of creating in a short time in the country's own highly productive breeding nucleus of dairy and beef cattle, which will reduce, and in the future completely eliminate, import dependence on cattle products.


Author(s):  
O. Merzlyakova ◽  
V. Rogachyev ◽  
V. Chegodaev

The efficiency of introducing probiotics based on strains of Bacillus subtilis, Bacillus licheniformis and their consortium in the amount of 150 g/t of feed into the diets of laying quails has been studied. The experiment lasting 182 days has been carried out on four groups of quails with 30 heads in each. The quails have been housed in the broiler battery in compliance with the required microclimate conditions. Quails of all groups have been received the main diet (compound feed) developed taking into account their age and physiological characteristics. The quails of the 1st, 2nd and 3rd experimental groups in addition to the main diet received probiotics (150 g/t compound feed) based on strains Bacillus subtilis, Bacillus licheniformis and their consortium, respectively. It has been found that feeding the laying quails of the consortium of strains Bacillus subtilis and Bacillus licheniformis had the most significant positive impact on their productive performance, it allowed to increase egg production by 7,81 %, egg laying intensity by 5,0 %, egg mass yield by 9,77 %, while reducing feed expenditures for 10 eggs by 13,35 %. The yield of hatching eggs has been increased by 7,03 %, hatchability of chickens from laid and fertilized eggs by 8,33 and 8,35 %, brooding waste decreased by 21,74 %. Hematological parameters of quails during the whole experiment were within the physiological norm. The economic effect calculated on the basis of data on the cost of compound feed, probiotics and the cost of sold eggs of quail laying was 14,56 % in the 3rd experimental group (in relation to the control group).


2020 ◽  
Vol 0 (0) ◽  
Author(s):  
Bentahar Attaouia ◽  
Kandouci Malika ◽  
Ghouali Samir

AbstractThis work is focused to carry out the investigation of wavelength division multiplexing (WDM) approach on free space optical (FSO) transmission systems using Erbium Ytterbium Doped Waveguide Amplifier (EYDWA) integrated as post-or pre-amplifier for extending the reach to 30 Km for the cost-effective implementation of FSO system considering weather conditions. Furthermore, the performance of proposed FSO-wavelength division multiplexing (WDM) system is also evaluated on the effect of varying the FSO range and results are reported in terms of Q factor, BER, and eye diagrams. It has been found that, under clear rain the post-amplification was performed and was able to reach transmission distance over 27 Km, whereas, the FSO distance has been limited at 19.5 Km by using pre-amplification.


2017 ◽  
Vol 16 (3) ◽  
pp. 269-289
Author(s):  
Marc Bourreau ◽  
Bernard Caillaud ◽  
Romain de Nijs

Abstract In this paper we propose a model where consumer personal data have multidimensional characteristics, and are used by platforms to offer ad slots with better targeting possibilities to a market of differentiated advertisers through real-time auctions. A platform controls the amount of information about consumers that it discloses to advertisers, thereby affecting the dispersion of advertisers’ valuations for the slot. We first show by way of simulations that the amount of consumer-specific information that is optimally revealed to advertisers increases with the degree of competition on the advertising market and decreases with the cost of information disclosure for a monopolistic platform, competing platforms or a welfare-maximizing platform, provided the advertising market is not highly concentrated. Second, we exhibit different properties between the welfare-maximizing situation and the imperfectly competitive market situations with respect to how the incremental value of information varies: there are decreasing social returns to consumers’ data, while private returns may be increasing or decreasing locally.


2021 ◽  
Vol 39 (3_suppl) ◽  
pp. 441-441
Author(s):  
Ali McBride ◽  
Karen MacDonald ◽  
Ivo Abraham

441 Background: Biosimilars have contributed to the reduction in the cost of prophylaxis of CIN/FN in recent years. Savings generated from conversion to biosimilars could be reallocated on a budget-neutral basis to provide expanded access to additional prophylaxis or to anti-neoplastic treatment. To demonstrate this, we simulated: 1) the savings that could be realized from CIN/FN prophylaxis with biosimilar pegfilgrastim-cbqv (BIOSIM-PEG) over reference pegfilgrastim with or without on-body injector (PEG/PEG-OBI), 2) a model of expanded access to BIOSIM-PEG from cost-savings achieved from conversion from PEG/PEG-OBI, 3) a model of expanded access to chemotherapy with oxaliplatin, leucovorin, irinotecan, and fluorouracil (FOLFIRINOX) for metastatic pancreatic cancer (mPC), 4) the number-needed-to-convert (NNC) to BIOSIM-PEG to purchase one additional treatment of BIOSIM-PEG, and 5) the NNC to purchase one cycle of FOLFIRINOX. Methods: This simulation modeling from the US payer perspective utilized: 1) a blended rate of average selling price (ASP; derived from CMS Q4 2020 reimbursement) and wholesale acquisition cost (WAC; Redbook) for PEG/PEG-OBI, BIOSIM-PEG, and all FOLFIRINOX agents proportionate to the estimated 2020 incident pancreatic cancer age distribution per Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program (67.6% Medicare-insured patients ≥65 years of age; 32.4% commercially insured patients <65 years); 2) between one and twelve cycles of prophylaxis in a panel of 2,500 mPC patients treated with FOLFIRINOX; and 3) conversion rates from PEG/PEG-OBI to BIOSIM-PEG ranging from 10%—100%. Results: Using a current blended ASP/WAC rate, cost-savings of BIOSIM-PEG over PEG/PEG-OBI in a panel of 2,500 mPC patients range from $188,780 (for 1 cycle of prophylaxis at 10% conversion) to $22,653,609 (12 cycles at 100%). In a single cycle of chemotherapy, these savings translate into expanded access to additional BIOSIM-PEG prophylaxis ranging from 53 cycles at 10% conversion from PEG/PEG-OBI to 528 cycles at 100% or to between 321 to 3,214 cycles of FOLFIRINOX, respectively. The savings over twelve cycles could provide up to 6,330 additional cycles of BIOSIM-PEG or 38,571 cycles of FOLFIRINOX (at 100% conversion). The NNC from PEG/PEG-OBI to purchase one additional cycle of BIOSIM-PEG is 4.74; the NNC to purchase once cycle of FOLFIRINOX is 0.78. Conclusions: These simulated models demonstrate the magnitude of the cost savings for CIN/FN prophylaxis that can be generated by conversion to biosimilar pegfilgrastim-cbqv. Further, these savings could be reallocated to provide access to anti-neoplastic treatment on a budget-neutral basis, thus enhancing the value of cancer care to both payers and patients.


2020 ◽  
Vol 6 (12) ◽  
pp. 136-140
Author(s):  
V. T. LYKTAN ◽  
◽  
S. P. MONGUSH ◽  

The aim of the work is to study the aspects of interregional cooperation in the formation of the complex investment project “Yenisei Siberia”. Methods of statistical analysis were used – dynamics, comparison, grouping. The article provides an overview of the main socio-economic differences between the participants of interactions. Minimizing these differences will create conditions for the effective implementation of investment projects that provide a multiplicative effect in the development of the project territories.


2020 ◽  
Vol 22 (1) ◽  
pp. 119-124
Author(s):  
Volodymyr Kharchenko ◽  
◽  
Hanna Kharchenko ◽  

Introduction. The article deals with the modeling features in the implementation of investment projects using the Monte Carlo method. The purpose of the article is to substantiate the feasibility of using economic and mathematical models to identify the risks of investment projects in agricultural production, taking into account the randomness of factors. Results. The expediency of using this method during the analysis of projects in agriculture is determined. This type of modeling is a universal method of research and evaluation of the effectiveness of open systems, the behavior of which depends on the influence of random factors. Particular attention is paid in such cases to decisions on the implementation of investment projects. The expediency of using this method in the analysis of projects in agriculture is determined. The main characteristics of the investment project are considered: investments involve significant financial costs; investment return can be obtained in a few years; there are elements of risk and uncertainty in forecasting the results of the investment project. The algorithm of the analysis of investment projects consisting of various stages is offered. The importance of investigating the risks of investment projects in agricultural production is substantiated. It is investigated that the basis of the Monte Carlo method is a random number generator, which consists of two stages: generation of a normalized random number (uniformly distributed from 0 to 1) and conversion of a random number into an arbitrary distribution law. The task of choosing an investment project for a pig farm is proposed. The calculations revealed that the amount of the expected NPV is UAH 63,158.80 with a standard deviation of UAH 43,777.90. The coefficient of variation was 0.69, so the risk of this project is generally lower than the average risk of the investment portfolio of the farm. Conclusions. The results of the analysis obtained using the method of Monte Carlo simulation are quite simple to interpret and reflect the change of factors over a significant interval, taking into account the probabilistic nature of economic factors. Thus, this method allows the implementation of the investment project to assess the impact of uncertainty on the final result of the project.


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