scholarly journals Modeling of regional freight flows of road transport in Ukraine

2021 ◽  
pp. 6-22
Author(s):  
Lidiia Savchenko ◽  
◽  
Myroslava Semeryagina ◽  
Iryna Shevchenko
Keyword(s):  
Complex System ◽  
Regression Models ◽  
Statistical Data ◽  
Freight Transport ◽  
The State ◽  
Transport Infrastructure ◽  
Gross Regional Product ◽  
Modern Approach ◽  
Regional Product ◽  
Multifactor Regression

A transport system can be defined as a complex system characterized by a random value of transport demand, variable weather and climatic factors, a set of characteristics of transport infrastructure, and a complex system of interconnections. One of the key modes of transport providing freight transport both in domestic and international traffic is road. Its mobility and the ability to deliver cargo from door to door is a unique competitive advantage over other modes of transport. To create an effective logistics infrastructure that meets the demand for domestic freight transport, first of all, information is needed on the needs for transport between regions of the country. Thus, it is necessary to look for mathematical approaches to modeling freight flows, combining their practical implementation using widely used software products (for example, MS Excel). The purpose of the paper is to build effective multifactor regression models of demand for input and output transportation of goods by road for each region of Ukraine according to publicly available statistical data of the State Statistics Service of Ukraine. The modern approach to modeling cargo flows requires fast processing of a large amount of statistical data. In addition, the method should be as universal as possible and capable of quick and simple changes under conditions of a change in statistical data. From this point of view, the most acceptable option can be considered to be the modeling of freight traffic using regression models based on correlation and regression analysis. In general, the task is to find the dependence of the demand for transportation on the factors that influence it. Such factors in the existing models are connected with various macroeconomic indicators, as well as the distance of delivery. The data of regional statistics of the State Statistics Service of Ukraine and data of the “Lardi-Trans” website as the most widely used by freight carriers and shippers were taken as the initial data for modeling. A list of factors has been found that significantly influence the demand for freight transport by road between regions of Ukraine. A rating of influencing factors has been compiled, among which are the gross regional product, regional volumes of foreign trade in goods (imports) and gross regional product per one inhabitant of the region. The absolute values of the correlation coefficients are in the range 0.351-0.974. The lowest correlation coefficient is between the transportation distance and the demand for delivery, which proves a negligible relationship between the volume of regional transportation and the distance of delivery. Multivariate regression models with thirteen, five and two factors of influence on demand are built. Accuracy parameter values are acceptable for all model variants. The normalized R-squared of the obtained models does not fall below 84%, and the average approximation error does not rise above 1.6%, which is an excellent performance of the models.

DIGITAL PRODUCTION AND TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENT OF REGIONAL ECONOMIC SYSTEMS

2020 ◽  
Vol 3 (11) ◽  
pp. 86-92
Author(s):  
O. A. DONICHEV ◽  
◽  
S. A. GRACHEV ◽  
M. L. BYKOVA ◽  
◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Mathematical Analysis ◽  
Significant Relationship ◽  
Technological Development ◽  
The State ◽  
Economic Systems ◽  
Gross Regional Product ◽  
Suggested Approach ◽  
Digital Production ◽  
Regional Product

The article is devoted to the analysis of aspects of industrial and technological development of regions in the conditions of digitalization. The purpose of the study is to try to determine the conditions and assess the economic growth of regions depending on the state of digitalization of the industrial and economic entities located in them. The research methodology is based on the use of statistical, comparative, and economic-mathematical analysis methods to establish the existing dependencies. A significant relationship has been established between the state of digitalization of the region and the growth rates of the gross regional product in them. The suggested approach can be applied by representatives of government authorities, scientists, and businesses to continue the analysis.

Assessment of contribution by corporate structures of the construction business to the economic development of territories

2020 ◽  
Vol 22 (5) ◽  
pp. 45-50
Author(s):  
SERGEY V. RAEVSKY ◽  
◽  
LYUBOV A. BELYAEVSKAYA-PLOTNIK ◽  
ANDREY A. ROMASHIN ◽  
◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Policy ◽  
Economic Development ◽  
Regression Models ◽  
Value Added ◽  
Gross Regional Product ◽  
Effective Management ◽  
Regional Administration ◽  
Regional Product ◽  
The Right ◽  
Selection Of

The article considers the development of methodology for assessing the contribution of corporate structures of the construction business to the economic development of territories. In the article, a specific theoretical approach is used, i. e. when choosing the instruments of regional administration, it is required to use precisely those, which with a minimum impact will lead to maximum effectiveness. When working on this hypothesis, appropriate estimates are used to assess the contribution of large corporate structures of the construction business to the creation of the Gross Regional Product with the usage of correlation- regression models. The adoption of effective management decisions to a large extent depends on the selection of the right areas of impact on those types of businesses that form the largest share of value-added. This approach allows us to highlight the tools to support the corporate structures of the construction business in developing the economic policy of the region.

scholarly journals Energy safety of the region on the example of the city of Sevastopol

2021 ◽  
Vol 270 ◽  
pp. 01033
Author(s):  
Elena Piskun ◽  
Vladimir Khokhlov ◽  
Lidiya Guryanova
Keyword(s):  
Energy Security ◽  
Quantitative Assessment ◽  
Statistical Data ◽  
Economic Security ◽  
Energy Resources ◽  
Gross Regional Product ◽  
Regional Energy ◽  
Regional Product ◽  
The City ◽  
Intensive Development

Energy safety problems arise and require solutions at the macro and meso levels. Energy security contributes to the extensive and intensive development of industry and services, the creation of comfortable living conditions for the population of the region. At the same time, there is a problem of quantitative assessment of the energy security of the region. The purpose of this study is to find an indicator reflecting the state of regional energy security and its impact on the economy. The proposed methodology makes it possible to determine: the supply of fuel and energy resources, taking into account the availability of the resource and the level of its consumption; the level of energy security based on changes in the provision of energy resources, linked to fluctuations in the gross regional product. According to the studies carried out according to the developed methodology and based on the statistical data of the city of Sevastopol, the level of energy security of the region is positive, despite the negative values of the provision of energy resources (except for 2020). At the same time, the gross regional product shows growth. It can be assumed that subsequent periods of the city’s functioning will be characterized by economic growth. Further research by the authors will be aimed at predicting both the energy and economic security of the region.

scholarly journals The hospitality industry development factors (case of St. Petersburg)

2021 ◽  
Vol 244 ◽  
pp. 10038
Author(s):  
Oksana Pirogova ◽  
Sergey Shanygin ◽  
Tatiana Lavrova ◽  
Vladimir Plotnikov
Keyword(s):  
Regression Analysis ◽  
Regression Models ◽  
Hospitality Industry ◽  
Gross Regional Product ◽  
Demand And Supply ◽  
Hotel Room ◽  
Correlation And Regression Analysis ◽  
Regional Product ◽  
The City ◽  
Tourist Flow

The hospitality industry is the unity of all cooperating organizations, each of which performs certain functions aimed at meeting the needs of consumers. The purpose of the article is to review the hotel market of St. Petersburg in the pre-pandemic period. During the research, methods of system and economic analysis, statistical structural and dynamic analysis, correlation and regression analysis were used. To achieve this goal, the characteristics and lists of services of hotels of the main categories are structured. It analyses the key market indicators, such as occupancy and hotel room growth, the distribution of room stock by category, the ratio of tariffs for rooms in hotels of different categories, as well as tourist flow in the context of domestic and foreign citizens. The distribution of domestic and foreign tourists by districts of the city is considered, preferences are revealed. The analysis of the dynamics of changes in the main parameters of the market, including specific indicators, is carried out, demand and supply are compared. It is established that hotels in recent years have carried out activities to attract additional tourists. It is concluded that hotels of different categories did not have time to adapt to the increase in the number of tourists. The characteristics of the market that presumably influence the value of the Gross regional Product of the city are identified, and regression models are compiled. Assumptions are made about the trends in the development of the hotel market in St. Petersburg.

scholarly journals Energy Consumption in Regions on the Way to Sustainable Innovative Development under Crisis

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 1302-1311
Author(s):  
Anna Vladimirovna Vinogradova
Keyword(s):  
Energy Consumption ◽  
Statistical Data ◽  
Electricity Consumption ◽  
Innovative Development ◽  
Gross Regional Product ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
Balanced Approach ◽  
The Russian Federation ◽  
Main Factors ◽  
Regional Product

The article analyses the volume of electricity consumption in the Russian Federation and in several Russian regions. The study was held taking into consideration the statistical data from 1998 to 2019. The authors developed an economic and mathematical model showing the influence of various factors on the electricity consumption. Among the main factors, they identified the gross regional product, the gross regional product per capita, electricity prices, and the exchange rate. They also draw conclusions about the significance of the factors included into the model that influence on the amount of energy consumed. An overview of approaches to the analysis of factors affecting the volume of energy consumption is made. The influence on the process of sustainable innovative development is determined, and a balanced approach to improving the energy efficiency of the domestic economy is proposed.

The Impact of Innovation, Labour and Capital in Gross Regional Product As an Indicator of Sustainable Development: the Regions of the Central Federal District and Tula Region

2018 ◽  
Vol 6 (5) ◽  
pp. 4-9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Р. Жуков ◽  
R. Zhukov ◽  
В. Поляков ◽  
V. Polyakov ◽  
М. Васина ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sustainable Development ◽  
Statistical Data ◽  
Federal District ◽  
Critical Values ◽  
Gross Regional Product ◽  
Permissible Limits ◽  
Central Federal District ◽  
Regional Product ◽  
Multiplicative Models ◽  
The Impact

The influence of the innovative component of the economy, labor and capital on the gross regional product in the regions of the Central Federal district, including the Tula region, is estimated. The dynamics of changes in coefficients of multiplicative models in the form of Cobb-Douglas, constructed using statistical data of Rosstat for 2007–2016, is studied. The critical values of the factors at which the volume of gross regional product can go beyond the permissible limits of a given trajectory constructed using the method proposed by the authors are determined.

scholarly journals The analysis of key results of the State program of the city of Moscow "Development of transport system" for 2012-2016 and on prospect till 2020" during 2013-2015.

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
akudryashov Kudryashov
Keyword(s):  
Transport System ◽  
Statistical Data ◽  
The State ◽  
Transport Infrastructure ◽  
State Program ◽  
Economic Indexes ◽  
The City

In this article are covered some theoretical basics of influence of transport infrastructure on region economy. On the basis of official statistical data the analysis of socio-economic indexes of the city of Moscow is carried out. Analyzing key results of the State program of the city of Moscow "Development of transport system" for 2012-2016 and on prospect till 2020", conclusions are drawn about the reached actual indicators during 2013-2015.

scholarly journals Long-Term Trends in Regional Labor Markets in Russia

REGIONOLOGY ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 29 (2) ◽  
pp. 427-446
Author(s):  
Anna E. Kurilo
Keyword(s):  
Labor Market ◽  
Labor Markets ◽  
Unemployment Rate ◽  
Statistical Data ◽  
Gross Regional Product ◽  
Regional Labor Markets ◽  
Regional Labor ◽  
Socio Economic Development ◽  
The Russian Federation ◽  
Regional Product

Introduction. Unemployment is one of the fundamental issues of macroeconomics and has a significant impact on the socio-economic development of regions and the country as a whole. Based on the results of the conducted study, the article identifies the correlation between unemployment and volumes of output in the regions of the Russian Federation. Materials and Methods. The paper used open statistical data for 79 constituent entities of the Russian Federation. The methods of comparative, economic, and statistical analysis were used to identify the trends in the development of regional labor markets. The trends of the labor market, including the correlation between the gross regional product and the unemployment rate, were studied based on the economic and statistical models and the statistical data for Russian regions for 1997–2017. Results. The study has revealed the increasing discrepancy between the aggregates of the labor market – the registered unemployment rate and the unemployment rate according to the conducted sample surveys of the population. The inertia of the indicator of “the registered unemployment rate”, associated with the institutional constraints of the labor market, has been shown. The slow response of the gross regional product to the change in the aggregates of unemployment has been revealed. No clear correlation has been observed between volumes of output and changes in the unemployment rate according to the methodology of the International Labour Organization based on the data from the sample labor force surveys. Discussion and Conclusion. The increasing divergence of aggregates of unemployment reveals a distortion of the formal institutional environment of the labor market and is due to the financial constraints of public authorities. Further research will focus on the assessment of the impact of the sectoral structure of the economy on the closeness of the correlation between changes in the gross regional product and the aggregates of the labor market. Understanding the trends in the development of the labor market is necessary for conducting a balanced policy of managing its transformation and the socio-economic development of the regions and the country as a whole.

scholarly journals Gross regional product: study of influencers

2021 ◽  
pp. 129-136
Author(s):  
Elena Karpenko ◽  
Yuliya Rasseko
Keyword(s):  
Regional Development ◽  
State Policy ◽  
The State ◽  
Sustainable Growth ◽  
Gross Regional Product ◽  
Exogenous Variables ◽  
Study Results ◽  
The Republic ◽  
Regional Product ◽  
Investment In Fixed Assets

The relevance of the research topic is determined by special attention to issues of regional development in the state policy of the Republic of Belarus, the quality of life of 78.6% of the country's population depends on the level of development of the regions under study. The problem of regional development is the growing imbalances in development between the regions of the country and, as a result, undesirable interregional migration flows of the population and a reduction in the demographic potential of a number of territories, as well as the emergence of signs of depression in a number of areas. The analysis of recent publications makes it possible to verify an ongoing interest in the issue, but the drawback of most studies is the disclosure of the issue within one particular region, or the study of the growth of grp due to conventional factors. According to the authors, until the end of the unexplored, the dependence of the gross regional product on indirect, implicit factors remains. Particular attention is drawn to the author's indicators and their place in the GRP growth model. The aim of the study is to establish the influence of unconditional and indirect factors on the magnitude and dynamics of gross regional product, which will provide an opportunity to formalize the dependence of grp on these factors and subsequently apply the built model in practice. The study methods used in the work are comparison, grouping, correlation-regression analysis, econometric modeling, and a systemic approach. Results of work. The present study considers a set of indicators for six regions of the republic of belarus for the period from 2013 to 2019. Using econometric methods of analysis, the authors built a regression model of the dependence of grp per capita on four exogenous variables, analyzed the degree of influence of these variables and the possibility of impact on them by the state. The area of application of the study results is state policy aimed at the sustainable growth of the economies of the regions. Conclusions. In the constructed model of four exogenous variables, the unemployment rate and the rate of life of the population are most significant. However, according to the authors, in order to achieve the desired level of gross regional product, it is necessary to have a comprehensive impact on all variable models, among which, in descending order of importance, the level of unemployment, the rate of life of the population, the amount of industrial production per person employed in the economy, investment in fixed assets.

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