scholarly journals Long-Term Macroeconomic Effects of Climate Change

2019 ◽  
Vol 19 (19) ◽  
Author(s):  
Matthew Kahn ◽  
Kamiar Mohaddes ◽  
Ryan Ng ◽  
M. Pesaran ◽  
Mehdi Raissi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Labor Productivity ◽  
Output Growth ◽  
Real Output ◽  
Economic Sectors ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Per Capita

We study the long-term impact of climate change on economic activity across countries, using a stochastic growth model where labor productivity is affected by country-specific climate variables—defined as deviations of temperature and precipitation from their historical norms. Using a panel data set of 174 countries over the years 1960 to 2014, we find that per-capita real output growth is adversely affected by persistent changes in the temperature above or below its historical norm, but we do not obtain any statistically significant effects for changes in precipitation. Our counterfactual analysis suggests that a persistent increase in average global temperature by 0.04°C per year, in the absence of mitigation policies, reduces world real GDP per capita by more than 7 percent by 2100. On the other hand, abiding by the Paris Agreement, thereby limiting the temperature increase to 0.01°C per annum, reduces the loss substantially to about 1 percent. These effects vary significantly across countries depending on the pace of temperature increases and variability of climate conditions. We also provide supplementary evidence using data on a sample of 48 U.S. states between 1963 and 2016, and show that climate change has a long-lasting adverse impact on real output in various states and economic sectors, and on labor productivity and employment.

Configurations to Superior Environmental Innovation Strategy: A Both–And Approach

2021 ◽  
pp. 108602662110316
Author(s):  
Tiziana Russo-Spena ◽  
Nadia Di Paola ◽  
Aidan O’Driscoll
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Value Chain ◽  
Critical Role ◽  
Well Being ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
Future Generations ◽  
Innovation Strategy ◽  
Environmental Innovation ◽  
Data Set

An effective climate change action involves the critical role that companies must play in assuring the long-term human and social well-being of future generations. In our study, we offer a more holistic, inclusive, both–and approach to the challenge of environmental innovation (EI) that uses a novel methodology to identify relevant configurations for firms engaging in a superior EI strategy. A conceptual framework is proposed that identifies six sets of driving characteristics of EI and two sets of beneficial outcomes, all inherently tensional. Our analysis utilizes a complementary rather than an oppositional point of view. A data set of 65 companies in the ICT value chain is analyzed via fuzzy-set comparative analysis (fsQCA) and a post-QCA procedure. The results reveal that achieving a superior EI strategy is possible in several scenarios. Specifically, after close examination, two main configuration groups emerge, referred to as technological environmental innovators and organizational environmental innovators.

scholarly journals Projections for Mexico’s Tropical Rainforests Considering Ecological Niche and Climate Change

Forests ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 119
Author(s):  
Antonio Fidel Santos-Hernández ◽  
Alejandro Ismael Monterroso-Rivas ◽  
Diódoro Granados-Sánchez ◽  
Antonio Villanueva-Morales ◽  
Malinali Santacruz-Carrillo
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Ecological Niche ◽  
Potential Distribution ◽  
Tropical Rainforest ◽  
Statistical Significance ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Tropical Regions ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Ecological Importance

The tropical rainforest is one of the lushest and most important plant communities in Mexico’s tropical regions, yet its potential distribution has not been studied in current and future climate conditions. The aim of this paper was to propose priority areas for conservation based on ecological niche and species distribution modeling of 22 species with the greatest ecological importance at the climax stage. Geographic records were correlated with bioclimatic temperature and precipitation variables using Maxent and Kuenm software for each species. The best Maxent models were chosen based on statistical significance, complexity and predictive power, and current potential distributions were obtained from these models. Future potential distributions were projected with two climate change scenarios: HADGEM2_ES and GFDL_CM3 models and RCP 8.5 W/m2 by 2075–2099. All potential distributions for each scenario were then assembled for further analysis. We found that 14 tropical rainforest species have the potential for distribution in 97.4% of the landscape currently occupied by climax vegetation (0.6% of the country). Both climate change scenarios showed a 3.5% reduction in their potential distribution and possible displacement to higher elevation regions. Areas are proposed for tropical rainforest conservation where suitable bioclimatic conditions are expected to prevail.

scholarly journals Analysis of climate change in Dnipropetrovsk Region

2017 ◽  
pp. 43-51
Author(s):  
V. V. Hrynchak
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Climate Changes ◽  
Absolute Temperature ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Annual Precipitation ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Weather Observations ◽  
Average Annual Temperature

The decision about writing this article was made after familiarization with the "Brief Climatic Essay of Dnepropetrovsk City (prepared based on observations of 1886 – 1937)" written by the Head of the Dnipropetrovsk Weather Department of the Hydrometeorological Service A. N. Mikhailov. The guide has a very interesting fate: in 1943 it was taken by the Nazis from Dnipropetrovsk and in 1948 it returned from Berlin back to the Ukrainian Hydrometeorological and Environmental Directorate of the USSR, as evidenced by a respective entry on the Essay's second page. Having these invaluable materials and data of long-term weather observations in Dnipro city we decided to analyze climate changes in Dnipropetrovsk region. The article presents two 50-year periods, 1886-1937 and 1961-2015, as examples. Series of observations have a uniform and representative character because they were conducted using the same methodology and results processing. We compared two main characteristics of climate: air temperature and precipitation. The article describes changes of average annual temperature values and absolute temperature values. It specifies the shift of seasons' dates and change of seasons' duration. We studied the changes of annual precipitation and peculiarities of their seasonable distribution. Apart from that peculiarities of monthly rainfall fluctuations and their heterogeneity were specified. Since Dnipro city is located in the center of the region the identified tendencies mainly reflect changes of climatic conditions within the entire Dnipropetrovsk region.

scholarly journals Climate Change Influences Basidiome Emergence of Leaf-Cutting Ant Cultivars

2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (11) ◽  
pp. 912
Author(s):  
Rodolfo Bizarria ◽  
Pepijn W. Kooij ◽  
Andre Rodrigues
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Nest Architecture ◽  
Historical Records ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Data Analyses ◽  
Symbiotic Mutualism ◽  
Leaf Cutting

Maintaining symbiosis homeostasis is essential for mutualistic partners. Leaf-cutting ants evolved a long-term symbiotic mutualism with fungal cultivars for nourishment while using vertical asexual transmission across generations. Despite the ants’ efforts to suppress fungal sexual reproduction, scattered occurrences of cultivar basidiomes have been reported. Here, we review the literature for basidiome occurrences and associated climate data. We hypothesized that more basidiome events could be expected in scenarios with an increase in temperature and precipitation. Our field observations and climate data analyses indeed suggest that Acromyrmex coronatus colonies are prone to basidiome occurrences in warmer and wetter seasons. Even though our study partly depended on historical records, occurrences have increased, correlating with climate change. A nest architecture with low (or even the lack of) insulation might be the cause of this phenomenon. The nature of basidiome occurrences in the A. coronatus–fungus mutualism can be useful to elucidate how resilient mutualistic symbioses are in light of climate change scenarios.

scholarly journals Intention, Principle, Outputs and Aims of the Experimental Pavilion Research of Building Envelopes Including Windows for Wooden Buildings

2017 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 42-51 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniela Štaffenová ◽  
Ján Rybárik ◽  
Miroslav Jakubčík
Keyword(s):  
Experimental Research ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
Physical Parameters ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Building Envelopes ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Time Period

AbstractThe aim of experimental research in the area of exterior walls and windows suitable for wooden buildings was to build special pavilion laboratories. These laboratories are ideally isolated from the surrounding environment, airtight and controlled by the constant internal climate. The principle of experimental research is measuring and recording of required physical parameters (e.g. temperature or relative humidity). This is done in layers of experimental fragment sections in the direction from exterior to interior, as well as in critical places by stable interior and real exterior climatic conditions. The outputs are evaluations of experimental structures behaviour during the specified time period, possibly during the whole year by stable interior and real exterior boundary conditions. The main aim of this experimental research is processing of long-term measurements of experimental structures and the subsequent analysis. The next part of the research consists of collecting measurements obtained with assistance of the experimental detached weather station, analysis, evaluation for later setting up of reference data set for the research locality, from the point of view of its comparison to the data sets from Slovak Hydrometeorological Institute (SHMU) and to localities with similar climate conditions. Later on, the data sets could lead to recommendations for design of wooden buildings.

scholarly journals Satellites, Self-reports, and Submersion: Exposure to Floods in Bangladesh

2015 ◽  
Vol 105 (5) ◽  
pp. 232-236 ◽  
Author(s):  
Raymond Guiteras ◽  
Amir Jina ◽  
A. Mushfiq Mobarak
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Economic Activity ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Objective Data ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Flood Exposure ◽  
Self Reports ◽  
Term Variation

A burgeoning “Climate-Economy” literature has uncovered many effects of changes in temperature and precipitation on economic activity, but has made considerably less progress in modeling the effects of other associated phenomena, like natural disasters. We develop new, objective data on floods, focusing on Bangladesh. We show that rainfall and self-reported exposure are weak proxies for true flood exposure. These data allow us to study adaptation, giving accurate measures of both long-term averages and short term variation in exposure. This is important in studying climate change impacts, as people will not only experience new exposures, but also experience them differently.

The shifting of climate types: manifestation to phenology and ecosystems structure

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gunta Kalvāne ◽  
Andis Kalvāns ◽  
Agrita Briede ◽  
Ilmārs Krampis ◽  
Dārta Kaupe ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Breaking Point ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Precipitation Regime ◽  
Climate Type ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Spatial Changes ◽  
Temporal And Spatial ◽  
The Impact

<p>According to the Köppen climate classification, almost the entire area of Latvia belongs to the same climate type, Dfb, which is characterized by humid continental climates with warm (sometimes hot) summers and cold winters.  In the last decades whether conditions on the western coast of Latvia more characterized by temperate maritime climates. In this area there has been a transition (and still ongoing) to the climate type Cfb.</p><p>Temporal and spatial changes of temperature and precipitation regime have been examined in whole territory to identify the breaking point of climate type shifts. We used two type of climatological data sets: gridded daily temperature from the E-OBS data set version 21.0e (Cornes et al., 2018) and direct observations from meteorological stations (data source: Latvian Environment, Geology and Meteorology Centre). The temperature and precipitation regime have changed significantly in the last century - seasonal and regional differences can be observed in the territory of Latvia.</p><p>We have digitized and analysed more than 47 thousand phenological records, fixed by volunteers in period 1970-2018. Study has shown that significant seasonal changes have taken place across the Latvian landscape due to climate change (Kalvāne and Kalvāns, 2021). The largest changes have been recorded for the unfolding (BBCH11) and flowering (BBCH61) phase of plants – almost 90% of the data included in the database demonstrate a negative trend. The winter of 1988/1989 may be considered as breaking point, it has been common that many phases have begun sooner (particularly spring phases), while abiotic autumn phases have been characterized by late years.</p><p>Study gives an overview aboutclimate change (also climate type shift) impacts on ecosystems in Latvia, particularly to forest and semi-natural grasslands and temporal and spatial changes of vegetation structure and distribution areas.</p><p>This study was carried out within the framework of the Impact of Climate Change on Phytophenological Phases and Related Risks in the Baltic Region (No. 1.1.1.2/VIAA/2/18/265) ERDF project and the Climate change and sustainable use of natural resources institutional research grant of the University of Latvia (No. AAP2016/B041//ZD2016/AZ03).</p><p>Cornes, R. C., van der Schrier, G., van den Besselaar, E. J. M. and Jones, P. D.: An Ensemble Version of the E-OBS Temperature and Precipitation Data Sets, J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 123(17), 9391–9409, doi:10.1029/2017JD028200, 2018.</p><p>Kalvāne, G. and Kalvāns, A.(2021): Phenological trends of multi-taxonomic groups in Latvia, 1970-2018, Int. J. Biometeorol., doi:https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-020-02068-8, 2021.</p>

scholarly journals Impact of Climate Change on Livestock Returns and Rangeland Ecosystem Sustainability in the Southwest

2018 ◽  
Vol 47 (2) ◽  
pp. 336-356 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gregory L. Torell ◽  
Katherine D. Lee
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Current Method ◽  
Adaptive Methods ◽  
Livestock Grazing ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Stocking Rate ◽  
Forage Production ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Stocking Rates

Climate change will increase variability in temperature and precipitation on rangelands, impacting ecosystem services including livestock grazing. Facing uncertainty about future climate, managers must know if current practices will maintain rangeland sustainability. Herein, the future density of an invasive species, broom snakeweed, is estimated using a long-term ecological dataset and climate projections. We find that livestock stocking rates determined using a current method result in lower forage production, allowable stocking rate, and grazing value than an economically efficient stocking rate. Results indicate that using ecology and adaptive methods in management are critical to the sustainability of rangelands.

The distributional impact of climate change on rich and poor countries

2006 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 159-178 ◽  
Author(s):  
ROBERT MENDELSOHN ◽  
ARIEL DINAR ◽  
LARRY WILLIAMS
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Economic Sectors ◽  
Poor Countries ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Market Impacts ◽  
Low Latitudes ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
Distributional Impact ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Very High

This paper examines the impact of climate change on rich and poor countries across the world. We measure two indices of the relative impact of climate across countries, impact per capita, and impact per GDP. These measures sum market impacts across the climate-sensitive economic sectors of each country. Both indices reveal that climate change will have serious distributional impact across countries, grouped by income per capita. We predict that poor countries will suffer the bulk of the damages from climate change. Although adaptation, wealth, and technology may influence distributional consequences across countries, we argue that the primary reason that poor countries are so vulnerable is their location. Countries in the low latitudes start with very high temperatures. Further warming pushes these countries ever further away from optimal temperatures for climate-sensitive economic sectors.

Projecting future vegetation change for northeast China using CMIP6

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wei Yuan ◽  
Shuang-ye Wu ◽  
Shugui Hou
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Vegetation Change ◽  
Management Strategies ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Vegetation Changes ◽  
Emission Scenarios ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation

<p>This study aims to establish future vegetation changes in the east and central of northern China (ECNC), an ecologically sensitive region in the transition zonal from humid monsoonal to arid continental climate. The region has experienced significant greening in the past several decades. However, few studies exist on how vegetation will change with future climate change, and great uncertainties exist due to complex, and often spatially non-stationary, relationships between vegetation and climate. In this study, we first used historical NDVI and climate data to model this spatially variable relationship with Geographically Weighted Logit Regression. We found that temperature and precipitation could explain, on average, 43% of NDVI variance, and they could be used to model NDVI fairly well. We then establish future climate change using the output of 11 CMIP6 models for the medium (SSP245) and high (SSP585) emission scenarios for the mid-century (2041-2070) and late-century (2071-2100). The results show that for this region, both temperature and precipitation will increase under both scenarios. By late-century under SSP585, precipitation is projected to increase by 25.12% and temperature is projected to increase 5.87<sup>o</sup>C in ECNC. Finally, we used future climate conditions as input for the regression models to project future vegetation (indicated by NDVI). We found that NDVI will increase under climate change. By mid-century, the average NDVI in ECNC will increase by 0.024 and 0.021 under SSP245 and SSP585. By late-century, it will increase by 0.016 and 0.006 under SSP245 and SSP585 respectively. Although NDVI is projected to increase, the magnitude of increase is likely to diminish with higher emission scenarios, possibly due to the benefit of precipitation increase being gradually encroached by the detrimental effects of temperature increase. Moreover, despite the overall NDVI increase, the area likely to suffer vegetation degradation will also expands, particularly in the western part of ECNC. With higher emissions and later into the century, region with low NDVI is likely to shift and/or expand north-forward. Our results could provide important information on possible vegetation changes, which could help to develop effective management strategies to ensure ecological and economic sustainability in the future.</p>

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