Reducing future air pollution-related premature mortality over Europe by mitigating emissions: assessing an 80 % renewable energies scenario

Abstract. Worldwide air quality has worsened in the last decades as a consequence of increased anthropogenic emissions, in particular from the sector of power generation. The evidence of the effects of atmospheric pollution (and particularly fine particulate matter, PM2.5) on human health is unquestionable nowadays, producing mainly cardiovascular and respiratory diseases, morbidity and even mortality. These effects can even enhance in the future as a consequence of climate penalties and future changes in the population projected. Because of all these reasons, the main objective of this contribution is the estimation of annual excess premature deaths (PD) associated to PM2.5 on present (1991–2010) and future (2031–2050) European population by using non-linear exposure-response functions. The endpoints included are Lung Cancer (LC), Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD), Low Respiratory Infections (LRI), Ischemic Heart Disease (IHD), cerebrovascular disease (CEV) and other Non-Communicable Diseases (other NCD). PM2.5 concentrations come from coupled chemistry-climate regional simulations under present and RCP8.5 future scenarios. The cases assessed include the estimation of the present incidence of PD (PRE-P2010), the quantification of the role of a changing climate on PD (FUT-P2010) and the importance of changes in the population projected for the year 2050 on the incidence of excess PD (FUT-P2050). Two additional cases (REN80-P2010 and REN80-P2050) evaluate the impact on premature mortality rates of a mitigation scenario in which the 80 % of European energy production comes from renewables sources. The results indicate that PM2.5 accounts for nearly 895,000 [95 % confidence interval (95 % CI) 725,000-1,056,000] annual excess PD over Europe, with IHD being the largest contributor to premature mortality associated to fine particles in both present and future scenarios. The case isolating the effects of climate penalty (FUT-P2010) estimates a variation +0.2 % on mortality rates over the whole domain. However, under this scenario the incidence of PD over central Europe will benefit from a decrease of PM2.5 (−2.2 PD/100,000 h.) while in eastern (+1.3 PD/100,000 h.) and western (+0.4 PD/100,000 h.) Europe PD will increase due to increased PM2.5 levels. The changes in the projected population (FUT-P2050) will lead to a large increase of annual excess PD (1,540,000, 95 % CI 1,247,000-1,818,000), +71.96 % with respect to PRE-P2010 and +71.67 % to FUT-P2010) due to the aging of the European population. Last, the mitigation scenario (REN80-P2050) demonstrates that the effects of a mitigation policy increasing the ratio of renewable sources in the energy mix energy could lead to a decrease of over 60,000 (95 % CI 48,500-70,900) annual PD for the year 2050 (a decrease of −4 % in comparison with the no-mitigation scenario, FUT-P2050). In spite of the uncertainties inherent to future estimations, this contribution reveals the need of the governments and public entities to take action and bet for air pollution mitigation policies.

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The effect of air pollution on chronic obstructive pulmonary disease exacerbations

Zdravstvena zastita ◽

10.5937/zdravzast50-30791 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 50 (1) ◽

pp. 67-78

Author(s):

Jovan Javorac ◽

Marija Jevtić ◽

Dejan Živanović ◽

Miroslav Ilić

Keyword(s):

Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease ◽

Air Pollution ◽

Pulmonary Disease ◽

Infectious Agent ◽

Mortality Rates ◽

Atmospheric Pollutants ◽

Chronic Obstructive ◽

Global Public Health ◽

Obstructive Pulmonary Disease ◽

The Impact

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is one of the greatest global public health challenges, emerging as the third leading cause of death by 2030. Acute exacerbations of COPD (AECOPD) contribute to the accelerated deterioration of lung function, reduced quality of life and higher hospitalizations and mortality rates. The cause of exacerbation is usually an infectious agent, but the impact of exposure to environmental factors is being studied more thoroughly. Among them, atmospheric pollutants emerged as the most important ones. Multiple studies showed that elevated concentrations of particulate matter (PM), sulphur dioxide (SO2), nitric dioxide (NO2) and ozone (O3) in the atmosphere, have the most significant negative effect on patients with COPD, increasing hospitalisations and mortality rates due to COPD. While examining their effect on AECOPD, it is important to consider the mutual interactions of different air pollutants, as well as interactions with meteorological factors. In order to decrease the burden of COPD, it is necessary to implement all strategies that will reduce the incidence of COPD, including global reduction of air pollution. That will require the support of the world's most developed economies, a significant renewal of the necessary resources and, finally, radical social change.

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Green belt’s effect on fine particle matter (PM2.5) in residential cluster: based on CFD simulation

E3S Web of Conferences ◽

10.1051/e3sconf/202123701011 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 237 ◽

pp. 01011

Author(s):

changwei Xiong ◽

qingchang Chen

Keyword(s):

Air Pollution ◽

City Planning ◽

Cfd Simulation ◽

Fine Particles ◽

Site Investigation ◽

Healthy City ◽

Green Belt ◽

Fine Particulate ◽

The Impact ◽

Green Belts

In the area of residential green belt planning, most planners pay attention to the landscape function of green belts, while few researchers consider the impact of green belt on the concentration of fine particulate matter in the air. Based on site investigation, information about plants, buildings and weather in the selected area were collected, combined with air pollution measurement, four CFD models with different green belt composition were built and simulated. The results showed that at the residential cluster scale, green belts had two effects on fine particles: blocking and agglomeration. Under the two effects, the role of green belts in reducing fine particulate pollution was not always positive, improper green belts could even aggravate air pollution. This study discussed the impact of different greenbelt composition on PM2.5 concentration in residential clusters by CFD simulation, providing theoretical and methodological support for green belt planning and healthy city planning.

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Transboundary air pollution and respiratory disease mortality: evidence from European countries

Journal of Economic Studies ◽

10.1108/jes-05-2020-0210 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽

Author(s):

Jonathan Spiteri ◽

Philip von Brockdorff

Keyword(s):

Air Pollution ◽

Air Pollutants ◽

Respiratory Diseases ◽

Mortality Rates ◽

Content Type ◽

Transboundary Air Pollution ◽

Per Capita ◽

Cross Country ◽

And Control ◽

The Impact

PurposeThe aim of this paper is to quantify the impact of transboundary air pollutants, particularly those related to urban traffic, on health outcomes. The importance of focusing on the health implications of transboundary pollution is due to the fact that these emissions originate from another jurisdiction, thus constituting international negative externalities. Thus, by isolating and quantifying the impact of these transboundary air pollutants on domestic health outcomes, the authors can understand more clearly the extent of these externalities, identify their ramifications for health and emphasise the importance of cross-country cooperation in the fight against air pollution.Design/methodology/approachThe authors employ panel data regression analysis to look at the relationship between emissions of transboundary air pollution and mortality rates from various respiratory diseases among a sample of 40 European countries, over the period 2003–2014. In turn, the authors use annual data on transboundary emissions of sulphur oxides (SOx), nitrogen oxides (NOx) and fine particulate matter (PM2.5), together with detailed data on the per capita incidence of various respiratory diseases, including lung cancer, asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). The authors consider a number of different regression equation specifications and control for potential confounders like the quality of healthcare and economic prosperity within each country.FindingsThe results show that transboundary emissions of PM2.5 are positively and significantly related to mortality rates from asthma in our sample of countries. Quantitatively, a 10% increase in PM2.5 transboundary emissions per capita from neighbouring countries is associated with a 1.4% increase in the asthma mortality rate within the recipient country or roughly 200 deaths by asthma per year across our sample.Originality/valueThese findings have important policy implications for cross-country cooperation and regulation in the field of pollution abatement and control, particularly since all the countries under consideration form a part of the UN's Convention on Long-Range Transboundary Air Pollution (CLRTAP), a transnational cooperative agreement aimed at curtailing such pollutants on an international level.

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Household Air Pollution in Low and Middle Income Countries

Oxford Research Encyclopedia of Environmental Science ◽

10.1093/acrefore/9780199389414.013.25 ◽

2017 ◽

Author(s):

Caroline A. Ochieng ◽

Cathryn Tonne ◽

Sotiris Vardoulakis ◽

Jan Semenza

Keyword(s):

Air Pollution ◽

National Level ◽

Household Air Pollution ◽

Solid Fuels ◽

Chronic Obstructive ◽

Biomass Fuels ◽

Middle Income ◽

Middle Income Countries ◽

The Impact ◽

Low And Middle Income

Household air pollution from use of solid fuels (biomass fuels and coal) is a major problem in low and middle income countries, where 90% of the population relies on these fuels as the primary source of domestic energy. Use of solid fuels has multiple impacts, on individuals and households, and on the local and global environment. For individuals, the impact on health can be considerable, as household air pollution from solid fuel use has been associated with acute lower respiratory infections, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, lung cancer, and other illnesses. Household-level impacts include the work, time, and high opportunity costs involved in biomass fuel collection and processing. Harvesting and burning biomass fuels affects local environments by contributing to deforestation and outdoor air pollution. At a global level, inefficient burning of solid fuels contributes to climate change. Improved biomass cookstoves have for a long time been considered the most feasible immediate intervention in resource-poor settings. Their ability to reduce exposure to household air pollution to levels that meet health standards is however questionable. In addition, adoption of improved cookstoves has been low, and there is limited evidence on how the barriers to adoption and use can be overcome. However, the issue of household air pollution in low and middle income countries has gained considerable attention in recent years, with a range of international initiatives in place to address it. These initiatives could enable a transition from biomass to cleaner fuels, but such a transition also requires an enabling policy environment, especially at the national level, and new modes of financing technology delivery. More research is also needed to guide policy and interventions, especially on exposure-response relationships with various health outcomes and on how to overcome poverty and other barriers to wide-scale transition from biomass fuels to cleaner forms of energy.

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The economic impact of air pollution: a European assessment

European Journal of Public Health ◽

10.1093/eurpub/ckaa165.084 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 30 (Supplement_5) ◽

Author(s):

S Conti ◽

P Ferrara ◽

L S D'Angiolella ◽

S C Lorelli ◽

G Agazzi ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Air Pollution ◽

Economic Burden ◽

Indirect Costs ◽

Premature Mortality ◽

Cochrane Library ◽

Policy Makers ◽

Life Years ◽

Health Related ◽

Disease Study ◽

The Impact

Abstract Background In 2017, the Global Burden of Disease Study estimated that in Europe 0.42 million deaths and 8.9 million disability-adjusted life years were attributable to air pollution. Monetizing this burden is a key step for estimating benefits of exposure reduction strategies. However, robust and synthetic estimates of direct (e.g. due to hospitalizations or medications) and indirect (e.g. due to premature mortality or loss of productivity) health-related costs of air pollution seem to be still lacking. We carried out a systematic review, aimed at identifying evidence from research in Europe. Methods We searched 5 electronic databases (MEDLINE, EMBASE, Cochrane Library, SCOPUS, Web Of Science) in which we applied algorithms tracing keywords such as “cost of illness”, “health care costs”, “economics” and synonyms, together with “air pollution” and synonyms. We limited our search to articles written in English and Italian, without date restriction. Results The initial search retrieved 2420 records. 200 were classified as relevant, and 38 fulfilled inclusion criteria. Most of them (68%) were published after 2010. 26% were multi-country studies, while the remaining focused on a single country or city. Investigated pollutants were usually particulate matter (79% of the studies) and nitrogen oxides (37%). The approaches to the economic analysis were heterogeneous: estimates could include direct and/or indirect costs. Among the studies, the most comprehensive one (12 countries) estimated that complying with WHO guidelines would avert €31 billion yearly, of which €19 million due to hospitalizations. Conclusions Over the last decade, progress has been made in evaluating the economic burden of air pollution. However, estimates based on indirect costs are affected by high levels of uncertainty, while those based on direct costs are more robust and should be further investigated, since they are crucial information for healthcare policy makers. Key messages Air pollution poses a high economic burden on European countries, mainly due to social costs. More attention should be devoted to estimating direct healthcare costs of air pollution, in order to properly inform policy makers about the impact on healthcare systems.

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Polusi Udara Kendaraan Bermotor Tidak Berpengaruh Terhadap Penyakit ISPA

JURNAL KESEHATAN LINGKUNGAN: Jurnal dan Aplikasi Teknik Kesehatan Lingkungan ◽

10.31964/jkl.v16i1.157 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 16 (1) ◽

pp. 697

Author(s):

Sri Neneng Sundari

Keyword(s):

Air Pollution ◽

Community Health Centers ◽

Indoor Air Pollution ◽

Motor Vehicle ◽

Respiratory Infections ◽

Air Pollutant ◽

Exhaust Emission ◽

Acute Respiratory Infections ◽

Vehicle Exhaust ◽

The Impact

Abstract: Motor Vehicle Pollution Doesn't Affect Against ISPA Disease. Air pollution is a problem that often occurs in the big cities, one of which is in the city of Bandung. Air pollution can cause various diseases from the most important ones namely respiratory, cardiovascular diseases, and to other diseases that attack certain organs. Based on the results of the study, air pollution from the transportation sector reached 60 percents, therefore this study will highlight the impact of motor vehicle air pollution on human’s health in Bandung, especially Acute Respiratory Infections (ARI), because the disease is the 2nd largest of the 20 biggest types of diseases in Community Health Centers / Puskesmas in Bandung. From several air pollutant parameters resulting from vehicle exhaust emissions, SO2 compounds were studied, because SO2 can cause irritation to the respiratory tract. This research using descriptive method, it can be concluded that air pollution caused by vehicle exhaust emission gas doesn’t directly affect the occurrence of Acute Respiratory Infections (ARI) in Bandung. The disease can occur due to other factors not examined in this paper, due to indoor air pollution, cigarette smoke pollution, industrial pollution or the continued use of synthetic chemicals.

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The short term burden of ambient gaseous air pollution on chronic obstructive pulmonary disease in Pudong New Area, China: A time-stratified case-crossover study with a distributed lag nonlinear model

10.21203/rs.3.rs-109352/v1 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Yichen Chen ◽

Xiaopan Li ◽

Hanyi Chen ◽

Lianghong Sun ◽

Tao Lin ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease ◽

Air Pollution ◽

Air Pollutants ◽

Chronic Obstructive ◽

Obstructive Pulmonary Disease ◽

Distributed Lag ◽

Case Crossover ◽

Distributed Lag Nonlinear Model ◽

Pudong New Area ◽

The Impact

Abstract Background: Air pollution is a severe and dangerous public health problem. However, the effect of ambient gaseous air pollution exposure on years of life lost (YLL) attributable to chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) mortality has not been quantitatively verified.Methods: We collected the data of 12,781 COPD deaths and ambient gaseous air pollutants, including sulfur dioxide (SO2), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), Carbon monoxide (CO), and ozone (O3), during the years 2013-2019 in the Shanghai Pudong New Area (PNA). Then we performed a time-stratified case-crossover study combined with a distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM) to estimate the impact of those air pollutants on daily COPD deaths counts and YLL. The confounders including long-term trend and meteorological factors have been controlled for, and effects of age and educational attainment as effect modifiers have also been evaluated.Results: During the 2013-2019 time frame, increases of 10μg/m3 in SO2 and NO2 were associated with a 4.93% (95% CI: 1.47%, 8.50%) and 1.47% (95% CI: 0.14%, 2.82%) in daily COPD death counts at lag0-1day, respectively, a 2.52 (95% CI: 0.31, 4.72) YLL increase and 0.85 (95% CI: 0.01, 1.68) YLL increase at lag0-1day, respectively. A 1mg/m3 increase in CO was associated with a 9.46% (95% CI: 0.40%, 19.35%) at lag0 increase in daily COPD death counts. No significant impact from O3 on both daily COPD deaths counts and YLL (P>0.05). The impact of gaseous air pollutants on the daily COPD death count and YLL were significant in populations of older adults and the lower educated population, while an insignificant effect was observed in the younger population and higher educated population. The YLL due to COPD related to SO2 and CO for the lower educated population was significantly higher than those for the higher educated population.Conclusion: Reducing specific gaseous air pollutants will help to control COPD deaths and improve the population’s life expectancy.

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CHARACTERISTICS OF INCIDENCE RATE OF COVID-19, ACUTE RESPIRATORY DISEASES, INFLUENZA AND COMMUNITY ACQUIRED PNEUMONIA IN RUSSIA ACCORDING TO CLIMATE, GEOGRAFICAL ASPECTS AND POPULATION DENSITY

10.21055/preprints-3111795 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Natalia Pshenichnaya ◽

Irina Lizinfeld ◽

Grigory Zhuravlev

Keyword(s):

Air Pollution ◽

Population Density ◽

Incidence Rate ◽

Respiratory Infections ◽

Social Activity ◽

Community Acquired Pneumonia ◽

The Republic ◽

Kaliningrad Region ◽

The Impact ◽

The Eu

Background: Understanding the impact of geographical aspects and population density on the incidence rate (IR) of respiratory infections in Russia is necessary for successful control under the epidemic. Aim: to estimate the increase in IR of respiratory infections in 2020 compared to the same period of 2016-2019 Materials and methods: a retrospective study of IR of COVID-19, ARI, influenza and community acquired pneumonia (CAP) in summarily (respiratory infections and COVID-19 morbidity) in the first half of 2020 in comparison with morbidity of ARI, influenza and CAP (respiratory infections morbidity) the same period of 2016-2019 in 85 regions was performed. Additionally the influence of climate on COVID-19 morbidity were estimated. Results: The highest excess of respiratory infections and COVID-19 morbidity in 2020 versus the average respiratory infections morbidity in 2016-2019 was observed in Buryatia-107.61%; Zabaykalsky Krai -134.09%; Tuva – 166.34%; the Kaliningrad region – 1023.41%; the Republic of Altai – 1212.78%; Dagestan – 2030.27%. Buryatia, Tuva, Altai and Zabaykalsky Krai are located next to the China, and also border each other. The Kaliningrad region borders on the EU countries. Dagestan has a maritime border with 3 states, including Iran, where the epidemic COVID-19 began earlier. In 43 of the 85 regions of Russia, this excess was 10-50%; in 35 subjects varied from 50% to 100%. The correlation between the incidence of COVID-19 and the population density in the regions was weak (r=0.26). The air pollution, has also a weak relationship (r=0.26) to the incidence rate. Moderate relationship was observed between the severity of negative temperatures in winter and the level of morbidity(r=-0.51). Milder climate probably contributed to the longer persistence of the virus in the environment and social activity. Conclusion: Russian regions bordering the PRC, the EU, Central Asia and the Middle East demonstrated the highest IR of influenza, ARI, CAP and COVID-19in summarility in the first part of this year versus the morbidity of influenza, ARI, CAP in average in first half of 2016-2019. IR of COVID-19 has weak correlation with population density and air pollution and moderate negative correlation with winter temperature.

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The hazards of PM2.5 pollution: Empirical evidence from perinatal mortality in China

10.21203/rs.2.24425/v1 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

guangqin Li ◽

Lingyu Li ◽

Dan Liu

Keyword(s):

Air Pollution ◽

Perinatal Mortality ◽

Spatial Econometrics ◽

Fixed Effects ◽

Mortality Rates ◽

Variable Method ◽

Haze Pollution ◽

Instrument Variable ◽

The Impact ◽

Positive Effect

Abstract Background : Although the adverse effects of air pollution on health have aroused widespread concern in academia, there is little evidence about the impact of PM2.5 on perinatal mortality rates. Methods: Using the spatial analysis function of ArcGIS, we get the haze pollution data from the satellite remote sensing data. We adopt fixed effects model, spatial Durbin model (SDM) and the instrument variable method to investigate the causality between PM2.5 and perinatal mortality rates. Results: We find that PM2.5 has a significantly positive effect on perinatal mortality rates. A 1% increase of log-transformed average concentrations and maximum concentrations of PM2.5 result in 1.76‰ and 2.31‰ increase of perinatal mortality rates, respectively. In spatial econometrics analysis, we find PM2.5 has significant spatial autocorrelation characteristics. A 1% increase of concentrations of log-transformed average and maximum PM2.5 lead to a 2.49‰ and 2.19‰ increase of perinatal mortality rates, respectively. Using instrument variable method to deal with the endogeneity, the result is similar. The potential mechanism through which air pollution has an impact on perinatal mortality rates is infant weight. Conclusions: PM2.5 pollution has a significant and positive effect on perinatal mortality. The results show that environmental pollution control should be strengthened and the exposure of pregnant women in polluted air should be reduced.

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Respiratory Effects of Particulate Matter Exposure During Short-Term Cycling Among Healthy Adults in Three Chinese Cities

10.21203/rs.3.rs-134774/v1 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Lejian He ◽

Laijun Zhao ◽

Yonghong Liu ◽

Zhaowen Qiu ◽

H. Oliver Gao

Keyword(s):

Air Pollution ◽

Particulate Matter ◽

Lung Function ◽

Fine Particles ◽

Aerodynamic Diameter ◽

Short Term ◽

Respiratory Effects ◽

Air Pollution Exposure ◽

Pollution Exposure ◽

The Impact

Abstract Background: Cycling to work has been promoted as a green commute in many countries because of its reduced congestion relative to that of cars and its reduced environmental impact on air pollution. However, cyclists might be exposed to higher air pollution, causing adverse health effects. Few studies have examined the respiratory effects of traffic-related air pollution exposure during short-term cycling, especially in developing countries with heavy air pollution. The aim of this study was to assess the impact of air pollution exposure on lung function while cycling in traffic. Methods: Twenty-five healthy adults in total cycled on a specified route in each of three Chinese cities during four periods of a day. Lung function measures were collected immediately before and after cycling. Real-time particulate matter (PM) and the particle number count (PNC) for particles with different sizes were measured along each cycling route, while ambient sulfur dioxide (SO2), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), ozone (O3), and carbon monoxide (CO) levels were measured at the nearest stations. Mixed-effect models were used to estimate the impact of short-term air pollution exposure on participants’ lung function measures during cycling. Results: We found that an interquartile increase in particulate matter consisting of fine particles (PM1, aerodynamic diameter £ 1 mm; and PM2.5, aerodynamic diameter £ 2.5 mm) was associated with a significant decrease in forced vital capacity (FVC) (PM1, –5.61%, p = 0.021; PM2.5, –5.57%, p = 0.022). Interquartile increases in the 99th percentile of PNC for fine particles (aerodynamic diameter 0.3–0.4 mm) also had significant negative associations with FVC (0.3 mm, –5.13%, p = 0.041; 0.35 mm, –4.81%, p = 0.045; 0.4 mm, –4.59%, p = 0.035). We also observed significant inverse relationships between ambient CO levels and FVC (–5.78%, p = 0.015).Conclusions: Our results suggest that short-term exposure to fine particles and CO while cycling in traffic contributes to a reduction in FVC of cyclists.

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