scholarly journals Examining the Role of Environmental Memory in the Predictability of Carbon and Water Fluxes Across Australian Ecosystems

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jon Cranko Page ◽  
Martin G. De Kauwe ◽  
Gab Abramowitz ◽  
Jamie Cleverly ◽  
Nina Hinko-Najera ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Latent Heat ◽  
Bayesian Model ◽  
Vegetation Type ◽  
Memory Effects ◽  
Model Fit ◽  
Continental Scale ◽  
Individual Site ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. The vegetation’s response to climate change is a significant source of uncertainty in future terrestrial biosphere model projections. Constraining climate-carbon cycle feedbacks requires improving our understanding of direct, as well as long-term, plant physiological responses to climate. In particular, the timescales and strength of memory effects arising from both extreme events (i.e., droughts and heatwaves) and structural lags in the systems have largely been overlooked in the development of models. This is despite the knowledge that plant responses to climatic drivers occur across multiple timescales (seconds to decades), with the impact of climate extremes resonating for many years. Using data from 13 eddy covariance sites, covering two rainfall gradients (256 to 1491 mm yr−1) in Australia, in combination with a hierarchical Bayesian model, we characterised the timescales and magnitude of influence of antecedent drivers on daily net ecosystem exchange (NEE) and latent heat flux (λE). Model fit varied considerably across sites when modelling NEE, with R2 values of between 0.30 and 0.83. Latent heat was considerably more predictable across sites, with R2 values ranging from 0.56 to 0.95. When considered at a continental scale, both fluxes were more predictable when memory effects were included in the model. These memory effects accounted for an average of 17 % of the NEE predictability and 15 % for λE. The importance of environmental memory in predicting fluxes increased as site water availability declined (ρ = −0.72, p < 0.01 for NEE, ρ = −0.62, p < 0.05 for λE). However, these relationships did not necessarily hold when sites were grouped by vegetation type. We also tested a k-means clustering plus regression model to confirm the suitability of the Bayesian model for modelling these sites. The k-means approach performed similarly to the Bayesian model in terms of model fit, demonstrating the robustness of the Bayesian framework for exploring the role of environmental memory. Our results underline the importance of capturing memory effects in models used to project future responses to climate change, especially in water-limited ecosystems. Finally, we demonstrate a considerable variation in individual site predictability, driven to a notable degree by environmental memory, and this should be considered when evaluating model performance across ecosystems.

On Approaches to Taking into Account the Risks of Changing Climatic Conditions when Planning and Implementing Oil and Gas Projects

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (1) ◽  
pp. 52-65
Author(s):  
P. N. Mikheev
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Oil And Gas Industry ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Qualitative Assessment ◽  
Physical Factors ◽  
Gas Industry ◽  
Climate Risks ◽  
The Impact

The article discusses issues related to the impact of climate change on the objects of the oil and gas industry. The main trends in climate change on a global and regional (on the territory of Russian Federation) scale are outlined. Possible approaches to the identification and assessment of climate risks are discussed. The role of climatic risks as physical factors at various stages of development and implementation of oil and gas projects is shown. Based on the example of oil and gas facilities in the Tomsk region, a qualitative assessment of the level of potential risk from a weather and climatic perspective is given. Approaches to creating a risk management and adaptation system to climate change are presented.

scholarly journals Has erosion globally increased? Long-term erosion rates as a function of climate derived from the impact crater inventory

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stefan Hergarten ◽  
Thomas Kenkmann
Keyword(s):  
Time Scale ◽  
Impact Crater ◽  
Regional Effect ◽  
Tropical Zone ◽  
Erosion Rates ◽  
Continental Scale ◽  
River Loads ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Worldwide erosion rates seem to have increased strongly since the beginning of the Quaternary, but there is still discussion about the role of glaciation as a potential driver and even whether the increase is real at all or an artefact due to losses in the long-term sedimentary record. In this study we derive estimates of average erosion rates on the time scale of some tens of million years from the terrestrial impact crater inventory. This approach is completely independent from all other methods to infer erosion rates such as river loads, preserved sediments, cosmogenic nuclides and thermochronometry. Our approach yields average erosion rates as a function of present-day topography and climate. The results confirm that topography accounts for the main part of the huge variation of erosion on Earth, but also identifies a significant systematic dependence on climate in contrast to several previous studies. We found a fivefold increase in erosional efficacy from the cold regimes to the tropical zone and that temperate and arid climates are very similar in this context. Combining our results to a worldwide mean erosion rate we found that erosion rates on the time scale of some tens of million years are at least as high as present-day rates and suggest that glaciation has a rather regional effect with a limited impact at the continental scale.

scholarly journals Interlinkages between Urbanization and Climate Change: Identifying and Understanding the Challenges and the Prospects

2020 ◽  
Vol 31 (3) ◽  
pp. 285-300
Author(s):  
Abhinav Alakshendra ◽  
Arjun Kumar ◽  
Simi Mehta
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Urban Governance ◽  
Institutional Reforms ◽  
Rapid Urbanization ◽  
Role Of Government ◽  
Government Organizations ◽  
Urban Service ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact

India is urbanizing at an alarming rate and the impact of climate change is becoming more visible each passing day. The rapid urbanization and climate change have severe direct and indirect consequences, such as increasing poverty, inequality, massive displacement, public health concerns, and challenges of urban governance, among others. This paper identifies some of the most pressing issues faced by urban India in the context of climate change. It also details the interventions undertaken at the local, national, and international levels to counter the effect of the climate change. In addition, it critically evaluates the role of government organizations, especially in terms of undertaking regulatory and planning functions. The paper argues that the implementation of institutional reforms would enable the government to reach out to the private sector to improve urban service delivery. It also provides examples of best practices from India and the world in combating climate change through adaptation and mitigation approaches.Abstrak. India mengalami urbanisasi pada tingkat yang mengkhawatirkan dan dampak perubahan iklim menjadi terlihat setiap hari. Urbanisasi yang cepat dan perubahan iklim memiliki konsekuensi langsung dan tidak langsung yang parah, seperti antara lain meningkatnya kemiskinan, ketimpangan, pengungsian besar-besaran, masalah kesehatan masyarakat, dan tantangan tata kelola kota. Makalah ini mengidentifikasi beberapa masalah paling mendesak yang dihadapi oleh perkotaan India dalam konteks perubahan iklim. Makalah ini juga merinci intervensi yang dilakukan di tingkat lokal, nasional, dan internasional untuk melawan dampak perubahan iklim. Selain itu, secara kritis makalah ini mengevaluasi peran organisasi pemerintah, terutama dalam menjalankan fungsi pengaturan dan perencanaan. Makalah ini berpendapat bahwa pelaksanaan reformasi kelembagaan akan memungkinkan pemerintah menjangkau sektor swasta untuk membantu meningkatkan pelayanan perkotaan. Makalah ini juga memberikan contoh praktik terbaik dari India dan dunia dalam memerangi perubahan iklim melalui pendekatan adaptasi dan mitigasi.Kata kunci. Urbanisasi, perubahan iklim, keterkaitan, tata kelola kota, mitigasi.

scholarly journals Interactions between Climate and Nutrient Cycles on Forest Response to Global Change: The Role of Mixed Forests

Forests ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (8) ◽  
pp. 609 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ester González de Andrés
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Change ◽  
Environmental Conditions ◽  
Species Interactions ◽  
N Deposition ◽  
Elemental Ratios ◽  
Nutrient Mineralization ◽  
Carbon Dioxide Co2 ◽  
The Impact

Forest ecosystems are undergoing unprecedented changes in environmental conditions due to global change impacts. Modification of global biogeochemical cycles of carbon and nitrogen, and the subsequent climate change are affecting forest functions at different scales, from physiology and growth of individual trees to cycling of nutrients. This review summarizes the present knowledge regarding the impact of global change on forest functioning not only with respect to climate change, which is the focus of most studies, but also the influence of altered nitrogen cycle and the interactions among them. The carbon dioxide (CO2) fertilization effect on tree growth is expected to be constrained by nutrient imbalances resulting from high N deposition rates and the counteractive effect of increasing water deficit, which interact in a complex way. At the community level, responses to global change are modified by species interactions that may lead to competition for resources and/or relaxation due to facilitation and resource partitioning processes. Thus, some species mixtures can be more resistant to drought than their respective pure forests, albeit it depends on environmental conditions and species’ functional traits. Climate change and nitrogen deposition have additional impacts on litterfall dynamics, and subsequent decomposition and nutrient mineralization processes. Elemental ratios (i.e., stoichiometry) are associated with important ecosystem traits, including trees’ adaptability to stress or decomposition rates. As stoichiometry of different ecosystem components are also influenced by global change, nutrient cycling in forests will be altered too. Therefore, a re-assessment of traditional forest management is needed in order to cope with global change. Proposed silvicultural systems emphasize the key role of diversity to assure multiple ecosystem services, and special attention has been paid to mixed-species forests. Finally, a summary of the patterns and underlying mechanisms governing the relationships between diversity and different ecosystems functions, such as productivity and stability, is provided.

scholarly journals Long-term erosion rates as a function of climate derived from the impact crater inventory

2019 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 459-473 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stefan Hergarten ◽  
Thomas Kenkmann
Keyword(s):  
Impact Crater ◽  
Fold Increase ◽  
Regional Effect ◽  
Tropical Zone ◽  
Erosion Rates ◽  
Continental Scale ◽  
River Loads ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Worldwide erosion rates seem to have increased strongly since the beginning of the Quaternary, but there is still discussion about the role of glaciation as a potential driver and even whether the increase is real at all or an artifact due to losses in the long-term sedimentary record. In this study we derive estimates of average erosion rates on the timescale of some tens of millions of years from the terrestrial impact crater inventory. This approach is completely independent from all other methods to infer erosion rates such as river loads, preserved sediments, cosmogenic nuclides, and thermochronometry. Our approach yields average erosion rates as a function of present-day topography and climate. The results confirm that topography accounts for the main part of the huge variation in erosion on Earth, but also identifies a significant systematic dependence on climate in contrast to several previous studies. We found a 5-fold increase in erosional efficacy from the cold regimes to the tropical zone and that temperate and arid climates are very similar in this context. Combining our results into a worldwide mean erosion rate, we found that erosion rates on the timescale of some tens of millions of years are at least as high as present-day rates and suggest that glaciation has a rather regional effect with a limited impact at the continental scale.

scholarly journals Small-scaled association between ambient temperature and campylobacteriosis incidence in Germany

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Julia Oberheim ◽  
Christoph Höser ◽  
Guido Lüchters ◽  
Thomas Kistemann
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Ambient Temperature ◽  
Time Lag ◽  
Daily Minimum Temperature ◽  
Time Lags ◽  
Recent Part ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Incidence Increase ◽  
Observation Period

Abstract Campylobacteriosis is the leading bacterial cause of human diarrheal illness worldwide. Campylobacteriosis incidence exhibits seasonality and has been attributed to ambient temperature. However, the role of ambient temperature on campylobacteriosis remains poorly understood. To examine the impact of ambient temperature on local campylobacteriosis in Germany, weekly incidences on NUTS-3 level were analysed using a novel small-scaled approach, regression and time lags. Campylobacteriosis incidence correlated positively with temperatures between − 5 and 28 °C. The sigmoid regression model estimated an incidence increase of 0.52 per 5 °C temperature rise in the observation period. The weekly average of daily minimum temperature was most significant at a time lag of two weeks and showed the steepest incidence increase of 0.13 per 1 °C temperature increase in a temperature corridor of 5.1 to 12.2 °C. The impact of average minimum temperatures on campylobacteriosis incidence is crucial, likely to be indirect and especially relevant in the recent part of the infection chain. Vectors or human behaviour are presumably more directly linked with temperature than the pathogen’s microbiology and should be examined. These variables outweigh the direct temperature-pathogen relationship when the whole chain of infection is considered. In the context of climate change, campylobacteriosis is likely to increase in Germany due to an increased temperature effect.

scholarly journals The impact of elite frames and motivated reasoning on beliefs in a global warming conspiracy: The promise and limits of trust

2017 ◽  
Vol 4 (3) ◽  
pp. 205316801771760 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kyle L Saunders
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Motivated Reasoning ◽  
Anthropogenic Global Warming ◽  
The Face ◽  
Conspiracy Beliefs ◽  
Original Question ◽  
Behavioral Impact ◽  
The Impact

Given the potential attitudinal and behavioral impact of Anthropogenic Global Warming (AGW) conspiracy beliefs, it is important to understand their causes and moderators. Here, two explanations for the variation in these beliefs are engaged: the first is the choice among elites to frame AGW using the phrase ‘global warming’ (GW) as opposed to ‘climate change’ (CC); the second is partisan motivated reasoning. A theory is then developed about the role of trust in moderating the impact of the two frames on AGW conspiracy beliefs. In the case of CC, which is perceived as less severe than GW (and is therefore less identity threatening among Republicans), it is hypothesized that trust will moderate hoax beliefs among Republicans. In the case of GW, where the implications of existence beliefs have policy consequences that are more unpleasant, motivated reasoning will ‘win out’, and trust will not moderate conspiracy endorsement among Republicans. The results from an original question framing experiment are consistent with the author’s hypotheses. Whilst trust is a welcome commodity to those looking to persuade citizens to support AGW-ameliorating policies, it is not a cure-all, especially in the face of elite partisan cues that edify pre-existing attitudes/identities and arouse a strong desire to engage in motivated reasoning.

Global Megatrends and the Macroeconomics of Gender

2019 ◽  
pp. 417-435
Author(s):  
Kalpana Kochhar ◽  
Sonali Jain-Chandra ◽  
Monique Newiak
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Gender Equality ◽  
Gender Equity ◽  
Technological Progress ◽  
Economic Diversification ◽  
Vulnerability To Climate Change ◽  
Demographic Shifts ◽  
And Gender ◽  
The Impact

This chapter examines global megatrends such as demographic shifts, technological progress, globalization, and climate change and emphasizes the important role of gender equality in mitigating their adverse consequences. The chapter first discusses demographic change, globalization, technological progress, and climate change before explaining how the main challenges posed by these megatrends could be offset by increasing gender equality, providing more equal access to economic opportunities for women, and boosting female economic participation. In particular, it considers ways of mitigating the impact of population ageing, harnessing urbanization for growth and gender equity, catalysing change to reduce income inequality, accelerating economic diversification, and mitigating vulnerability to climate change. The chapter concludes with an evaluation of policy options for mitigating the risks posed by megatrends through gender equality, such as unleashing fiscal policy, easing the burden of non-market work, and removing legal discrimination against women.

scholarly journals Streamflow hydrology in the boreal region under the influences of climate and human interference

2007 ◽  
Vol 363 (1501) ◽  
pp. 2249-2258 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ming-ko Woo ◽  
Robin Thorne ◽  
Kit Szeto ◽  
Daqing Yang
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Low Flow ◽  
Hydrological Simulation ◽  
Boreal Region ◽  
Spring Freshet ◽  
Subarctic Climate ◽  
Future Warming ◽  
Seasonal Streamflow ◽  
The Impact

The boreal region has a subarctic climate that is subject to considerable inter-annual variability and is prone to impacts of future warming. Climate influences the seasonal streamflow regime which typically exhibits winter low flow, terminated by spring freshet, followed by summer flow recession. The effects of climatic variation on streamflow cannot be isolated with confidence but the impact of human regulation of rivers can greatly alter the natural flow rhythm, changing the timing of flow to suit human demands. The effect of scenario climate change on streamflow is explored through hydrological simulation. Example of a Canadian basin under warming scenario suggests that winter flow will increase, spring freshet dates will advance but peak flow will decline, as will summer flow due to enhanced evaporation. While this simulation was site specific, the results are qualitatively applicable to other boreal areas. Future studies should consider the role of human activities as their impacts on streamflow will be more profound than those due to climate change.

scholarly journals Are citizen juries and assemblies on climate change driving democratic climate policymaking? An exploration of two case studies in the United Kingdom

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rebecca Wells ◽  
Candice Howarth ◽  
Lina I. Brand-Correa
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Policy ◽  
Comparative Case Study ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Climate Action ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Elected Representatives ◽  
The Impact

Abstract In light of increasing pressure to deliver climate action targets, and the growing role of citizens in raising the importance of the issue, deliberative democratic processes (e.g. Citizen Juries and Citizen Assemblies) on climate change are increasingly being used to provide a voice to citizens in climate change decision-making. Through a comparative case study of two processes that ran in the UK in 2019 (the Leeds Climate Change Citizens’ Jury and the Oxford Citizens’ Assembly on Climate Change), this paper investigates how far Citizen Assemblies and Juries on climate change are increasing citizen engagement on climate change and creating more citizen-centred climate policy-making. Interviews were conducted with policy-makers, councillors, professional facilitators and others involved in running these processes to assess motivations for conducting these, their structure and the impact and influence they had. The findings suggest the impact of these processes is not uniform: they have an indirect impact on policymaking by creating momentum around climate action and supporting the introduction of pre-planned or pre-existing policies rather than a direct impact by being truly being citizen-centred policymaking processes or conducive to new climate policy. We conclude with reflections on how these processes give elected representatives a public mandate on climate change, that they help to identify more nuanced and in-depth public opinions in a fair and informed way, yet it can be challenging to embed citizen juries and assemblies in wider democratic processes.

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