Climate change projections for the eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East based on CORDEX-CORE simulations

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
George Zittis ◽  
Panos Hadjinicolaou ◽  
Jos Lelieveld
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Middle East ◽  
Spatial Resolution ◽  
Greenhouse Gas Emission ◽  
Hydrological Cycle ◽  
Eastern Mediterranean ◽  
Hot Spot ◽  
Local Level ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Current Century

<p>Many observation-based and modelling studies have identified the Eastern Mediterranean and Middle East (EMME) region as a prominent climate change hot-spot. During the last half century, the region has warmed faster than the global mean, while at the same time changes in the hydrological cycle have been observed. Several studies suggest that these trends are projected to continue and intensify throughout the 21st century, depending on greenhouse gas emission scenarios. To assess climate change impacts on a regional and local level, future climate information of high quality and spatial resolution is required. To provide such information is the objective of CORDEX. The latest advancement of this World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) initiative includes the CORDEX-CORE set of regional experiments that aims at global coverage and was designed to provide regional-level information to the upcoming Assessment Reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). This state-of-the-art dataset is available at a spatial resolution of 0.22° (about 25 km). We have complemented this ensemble model data with those from two experiments of the MENA-CORDEX initiative that are available at the same resolution. Here, we have analyzed monthly data from 1971 to the end of the current century. We have adopted a multi-domain and multi-model ensemble approach that is found to add value by addressing shortcomings and reducing uncertainties. Our results corroborate and update existing estimations on the transition to drier and hotter conditions in the EMME region. Under a business-as-usual pathway (RCP8.5), the region-average warming at the end of the current century is expected to exceed 5 °C (with respect to the 1986-2005 reference temperature). On the contrary, under a strong mitigation pathway (RCP2.6) this warming can be limited to less than 1.5 °C. Summer warming is projected to exceed these values by 2-3 °C, favoring the conditions for unprecedented heatwaves. On average, precipitation changes are less robust and significant and range between 0 to -15% of the reference values, while locally stronger drying can occur, particularly under RCP8.5.</p>

scholarly journals Climate change impacts on hydrology and water resources of Indian River basin

2018 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 32-43 ◽  
Author(s):  
Umesh Kumar Singh ◽  
Balwant Kumar
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Groundwater Recharge ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Greenhouse Gas Emission ◽  
Hydrological Cycle ◽  
Indian Subcontinent ◽  
Climatic Variability ◽  
River Basins ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Runoff Generation

Anthropogenic greenhouse gas emission is altering the global hydrological cycle due to change in rainfall pattern and rising temperature which is responsible for alteration in the physical characteristics of river basin, melting of ice, drought, flood, extreme weather events and alteration in groundwater recharge. In India, water demand for domestic, industrial and agriculture purposes have already increased many folds which are also influencing the water resource system. In addition, climate change has induced the surface temperature of the Indian subcontinent by 0.48 ºC in just last century. However, Ganges–Brahmaputra–Meghna (GBM) river basins have great importance for their exceptional hydro-geological settings and deltaic floodplain wetland ecosystems which support 700 million people in Asia. The climatic variability like alterations in precipitation and temperature over GBM river basins has been observed which signifies the GBM as one of the most vulnerable areas in the world under the potential impact of climate change. Consequently, alteration in river discharge, higher runoff generation, low groundwater recharge and melting of glaciers over GBM river basin could be observed in near future. The consequence of these changes due to climate change over GBM basin may create serious water problem for Indian sub-continents. This paper reviews the literature on the historical climate variations and how climate change affects the hydrological characteristics of different river basins.

scholarly journals Energy Efficiency and GHG Emissions Mapping of Buildings for Decision-Making Processes against Climate Change at the Local Level

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (7) ◽  
pp. 2982 ◽  
Author(s):  
Edgar Lorenzo-Sáez ◽  
José-Vicente Oliver-Villanueva ◽  
Eloina Coll-Aliaga ◽  
Lenin-Guillermo Lemus-Zúñiga ◽  
Victoria Lerma-Arce ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Energy Efficiency ◽  
Spatial Resolution ◽  
Residential Buildings ◽  
Local Level ◽  
Ghg Emissions ◽  
Energy Transition ◽  
Primary Energy ◽  
Low Carbon ◽  
Low Carbon Economy

Buildings have become a key source of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions due to the consumption of primary energy, especially when used to achieve thermal comfort conditions. In addition, buildings play a key role for adapting societies to climate change by achieving more energy efficiency. Therefore, buildings have become a key sector to tackle climate change at the local level. However, public decision-makers do not have tools with enough spatial resolution to prioritise and focus the available resources and efforts in an efficient manner. The objective of the research is to develop an innovative methodology based on a geographic information system (GIS) for mapping primary energy consumption and GHG emissions in buildings in cities according to energy efficiency certificates. The developed methodology has been tested in a representative medium-sized city in Spain, obtaining an accurate analysis that shows 32,000 t of CO2 emissions due to primary energy consumption of 140 GWh in residential buildings with high spatial resolution at single building level. The obtained results demonstrate that the majority of residential buildings have low levels of energy efficiency and emit an average of 45 kg CO2/m2. Compared to the national average in Spain, this obtained value is on the average, while it is slightly better at the regional level. Furthermore, the results obtained demonstrate that the developed methodology is able to directly identify city districts with highest potential for improving energy efficiency and reducing GHG emissions. Additionally, a data model adapted to the INSPIRE regulation has been developed in order to ensure interoperability and European-wide application. All these results have allowed the local authorities to better define local strategies towards a low-carbon economy and energy transition. In conclusion, public decision-makers will be supported with an innovative and user-friendly GIS-based methodology to better define local strategies towards a low-carbon economy and energy transition in a more efficient and transparent way based on metrics of high spatial resolution and accuracy.

scholarly journals Impacts of Climate Change on the Eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East and North Africa Region and the Water–Energy Nexus

Atmosphere ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (8) ◽  
pp. 455 ◽  
Author(s):  
Manfred A. Lange
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Middle East ◽  
North Africa ◽  
Heat Waves ◽  
Eastern Mediterranean ◽  
Mena Region ◽  
Large Variability ◽  
Mitigation And Adaptation ◽  
Water Energy Nexus ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

The present paper aims to elucidate impacts of climate change on the availability and security of water and energy in the Middle East and North Africa region (MENA region; including the Eastern Mediterranean) in the context of the water–energy nexus. It largely builds on existing knowledge and understanding and aims to present a review of existing information on this topic. The region is particularly challenged by a number of factors, including the large variability of bio-geographical characteristics, extreme population growth over the last few decades, and substantial societal and economical transitions, as well as armed conflicts in some of the countries in the region. Anticipated changes in climate conditions will exacerbate the challenges regarding water and energy security in the region. Major impacts of climate change include a significant increase in summer temperatures, which will lead to a growing number of heat waves, primarily in urban structures. A general decrease in precipitation in many of the MENA countries is foreseen, resulting in enhanced droughts and a growing number of dry spells. In addressing energy and water scarcities and their mutual interrelationships, an integrated water–energy nexus concept offers promising prospects to improve environmental, climate, human, and political security. However, only very few countries in the MENA region have presently implemented such a concept. Mitigation and adaptation strategies addressing water and energy scarcity include enhanced efficiency of resource use, integrated technology assessments regarding electricity generation, and a stronger reliance on renewable/solar technologies. While looking at the MENA region as a whole, some emphasis will be given to Cyprus and the Eastern Mediterranean.

scholarly journals Assessing the impacts of 1.5 °C global warming – simulation protocol of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP2b)

2017 ◽  
Vol 10 (12) ◽  
pp. 4321-4345 ◽  
Author(s):  
Katja Frieler ◽  
Stefan Lange ◽  
Franziska Piontek ◽  
Christopher P. O. Reyer ◽  
Jacob Schewe ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Greenhouse Gas Emission ◽  
Scientific Basis ◽  
Economic Conditions ◽  
Impact Model ◽  
Model Intercomparison ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Simulation Protocol ◽  
Intercomparison Project

Abstract. In Paris, France, December 2015, the Conference of the Parties (COP) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) invited the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to provide a special report in 2018 on the impacts of global warming of 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways. In Nairobi, Kenya, April 2016, the IPCC panel accepted the invitation. Here we describe the response devised within the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) to provide tailored, cross-sectorally consistent impact projections to broaden the scientific basis for the report. The simulation protocol is designed to allow for (1) separation of the impacts of historical warming starting from pre-industrial conditions from impacts of other drivers such as historical land-use changes (based on pre-industrial and historical impact model simulations); (2) quantification of the impacts of additional warming up to 1.5 °C, including a potential overshoot and long-term impacts up to 2299, and comparison to higher levels of global mean temperature change (based on the low-emissions Representative Concentration Pathway RCP2.6 and a no-mitigation pathway RCP6.0) with socio-economic conditions fixed at 2005 levels; and (3) assessment of the climate effects based on the same climate scenarios while accounting for simultaneous changes in socio-economic conditions following the middle-of-the-road Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP2, Fricko et al., 2016) and in particular differential bioenergy requirements associated with the transformation of the energy system to comply with RCP2.6 compared to RCP6.0. With the aim of providing the scientific basis for an aggregation of impacts across sectors and analysis of cross-sectoral interactions that may dampen or amplify sectoral impacts, the protocol is designed to facilitate consistent impact projections from a range of impact models across different sectors (global and regional hydrology, lakes, global crops, global vegetation, regional forests, global and regional marine ecosystems and fisheries, global and regional coastal infrastructure, energy supply and demand, temperature-related mortality, and global terrestrial biodiversity).

scholarly journals Robust Responses of the Hydrological Cycle to Global Warming

2006 ◽  
Vol 19 (21) ◽  
pp. 5686-5699 ◽  
Author(s):  
Isaac M. Held ◽  
Brian J. Soden
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Heat Transport ◽  
Hydrological Cycle ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Sensible Heat ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Mass Fluxes ◽  
Temporal Variance ◽  
Transient Climate Change ◽  
Surprising Finding

Abstract Using the climate change experiments generated for the Fourth Assessment of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, this study examines some aspects of the changes in the hydrological cycle that are robust across the models. These responses include the decrease in convective mass fluxes, the increase in horizontal moisture transport, the associated enhancement of the pattern of evaporation minus precipitation and its temporal variance, and the decrease in the horizontal sensible heat transport in the extratropics. A surprising finding is that a robust decrease in extratropical sensible heat transport is found only in the equilibrium climate response, as estimated in slab ocean responses to the doubling of CO2, and not in transient climate change scenarios. All of these robust responses are consequences of the increase in lower-tropospheric water vapor.

scholarly journals Variations in the Simulation of Climate Change Impact Indices due to Different Land Surface Schemes over the Mediterranean, Middle East and Northern Africa

Atmosphere ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 26 ◽  
Author(s):  
Katiana Constantinidou ◽  
George Zittis ◽  
Panos Hadjinicolaou
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Middle East ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Climate Change Impact ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Eastern Mediterranean ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Relative Dispersion ◽  
Change Impact

The Eastern Mediterranean (EM) and the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) are projected to be exposed to extreme climatic conditions in the 21st century, which will likely induce adverse impacts in various sectors. Relevant climate change impact assessments utilise data from climate model projections and process-based impact models or simpler, index-based approaches. In this study, we explore the implied uncertainty from variations of climate change impact-related indices as induced by the modelled climate (WRF regional climate model) from different land surface schemes (Noah, NoahMP, CLM and RUC). The three climate change impact-related indicators examined here are the Radiative Index of Dryness (RID), the Fuel Dryness Index (Fd) and the Water-limited Yield (Yw). Our findings indicate that Noah simulates the highest values for both RID and Fd, while CLM gives the highest estimations for winter wheat Yw. The relative dispersion in the three indices derived by the different land schemes is not negligible, amounting, for the overall geographical domain of 25% for RID and Fd, and 10% for Yw. The dispersion is even larger for specific sub-regions.

scholarly journals Future Changes in Surface Runoff over Korea Projected by a Regional Climate Model under A1B Scenario

2014 ◽  
Vol 2014 ◽  
pp. 1-8 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ji-Woo Lee ◽  
Suryun Ham ◽  
Song-You Hong ◽  
Kei Yoshimura ◽  
Minsu Joh
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Regional Climate Model ◽  
Surface Runoff ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Hydrological Cycle ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Climate Simulation ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
The Future

This study assesses future change of surface runoff due to climate change over Korea using a regional climate model (RCM), namely, the Global/Regional Integrated Model System (GRIMs), Regional Model Program (RMP). The RMP is forced by future climate scenario, namely, A1B of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4). The RMP satisfactorily reproduces the observed seasonal mean and variation of surface runoff for the current climate simulation. The distribution of monsoonal precipitation-related runoff is adequately captured by the RMP. In the future (2040–2070) simulation, it is shown that the increasing trend of temperature has significant impacts on the intra-annual runoff variation. The variability of runoff is increased in summer; moreover, the strengthened possibility of extreme occurrence is detected in the future climate. This study indicates that future climate projection, including surface runoff and its variability over Korea, can be adequately addressed on the RMP testbed. Furthermore, this study reflects that global warming affects local hydrological cycle by changing major water budget components. This study adduces that the importance of runoff should not be overlooked in regional climate studies, and more elaborate presentation of fresh-water cycle is needed to close hydrological circulation in RCMs.

scholarly journals Spring distribution of shelled pteropods across the Mediterranean Sea

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Roberta Johnson ◽  
Clara Manno ◽  
Patrizia Ziveri
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Mediterranean Sea ◽  
Eastern Mediterranean ◽  
Hot Spot ◽  
Environmental Parameters ◽  
Saturation State ◽  
Eastern Mediterranean Sea ◽  
The Mediterranean ◽  
First Time ◽  
Natural Laboratory

Abstract. Shelled pteropods represent an excellent sentinel for indicating exposure to ocean acidification (OA). Here, for the first time, we characterise spring pteropod distribution throughout the Mediterranean Sea, a region that has been identified as a climate change hot-spot. The presence of a west–east natural biogeochemical gradient makes this region a natural laboratory to investigate how the variability in environmental parameters may affect pteropod distribution. Results show that pteropod abundance is significantly higher in the eastern Mediterranean Sea where there is a higher aragonite saturation state (Ωar), showing that distribution is positively correlated with Ωar. We also observed a resilience of pteropods to higher temperatures and low nutrient conditions, including phosphorous limitation. The higher abundance of pteropods in ultra-oligotrophic conditions (eastern Mediterranean Sea) suggests that this organism can play an important role as the prime calcifying zooplankton within specific oligotrophic regions.

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