Overcoming the challenges of increasing resolution and complexity in GEOS

Author(s):  
William Putman

<p>The NASA Global Earth Observing System (GEOS) model supports an array of complex Earth system simulation and assimilation capabilities.<span>  </span>These range from simple development frameworks such as dry atmosphere dynamics and single column physics cases, to fully coupled atmosphere-ocean-land-cryosphere-chemistry. Efficient use of available computational resources requires extensive scientific development within each of these components, and optimized frameworks for coupling and executing these components in a comprehensive manner.<span>  </span>Ultimately, experiment design requires a compromise between complexity and increased resolution.<span>  </span>This talk will explore these compromises within the array of global DYAMOND Phase II winter 40-day simulations completed with GEOS. These include: 1) A coupled 4km ocean and 6km atmosphere with interactive two-moment aerosol cloud microphysics. 2) A 3km 181-level atmosphere with single-moment 6-phase cloud microphysics including 1km global carbon emissions for chemistry transport. 3) A 1.5km 181-level atmosphere with simple parameterized chemistry.</p>

2021 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Alexandra Schoenle ◽  
Manon Hohlfeld ◽  
Karoline Hermanns ◽  
Frédéric Mahé ◽  
Colomban de Vargas ◽  
...  

AbstractHeterotrophic protists (unicellular eukaryotes) form a major link from bacteria and algae to higher trophic levels in the sunlit ocean. Their role on the deep seafloor, however, is only fragmentarily understood, despite their potential key function for global carbon cycling. Using the approach of combined DNA metabarcoding and cultivation-based surveys of 11 deep-sea regions, we show that protist communities, mostly overlooked in current deep-sea foodweb models, are highly specific, locally diverse and have little overlap to pelagic communities. Besides traditionally considered foraminiferans, tiny protists including diplonemids, kinetoplastids and ciliates were genetically highly diverse considerably exceeding the diversity of metazoans. Deep-sea protists, including many parasitic species, represent thus one of the most diverse biodiversity compartments of the Earth system, forming an essential link to metazoans.


2014 ◽  
Vol 7 (4) ◽  
pp. 1733-1766 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. Barahona ◽  
A. Molod ◽  
J. Bacmeister ◽  
A. Nenes ◽  
A. Gettelman ◽  
...  

Abstract. This work presents the development of a two-moment cloud microphysics scheme within version 5 of the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS-5). The scheme includes the implementation of a comprehensive stratiform microphysics module, a new cloud coverage scheme that allows ice supersaturation, and a new microphysics module embedded within the moist convection parameterization of GEOS-5. Comprehensive physically based descriptions of ice nucleation, including homogeneous and heterogeneous freezing, and liquid droplet activation are implemented to describe the formation of cloud particles in stratiform clouds and convective cumulus. The effect of preexisting ice crystals on the formation of cirrus clouds is also accounted for. A new parameterization of the subgrid-scale vertical velocity distribution accounting for turbulence and gravity wave motion is also implemented. The new microphysics significantly improves the representation of liquid water and ice in GEOS-5. Evaluation of the model against satellite retrievals and in situ observations shows agreement of the simulated droplet and ice crystal effective radius, the ice mass mixing ratio and number concentration, and the relative humidity with respect to ice. When using the new microphysics, the fraction of condensate that remains as liquid follows a sigmoidal dependency with temperature, which is in agreement with observations and which fundamentally differs from the linear increase assumed in most models. The performance of the new microphysics in reproducing the observed total cloud fraction, longwave and shortwave cloud forcing, and total precipitation is similar to the operational version of GEOS-5 and in agreement with satellite retrievals. The new microphysics tends to underestimate the coverage of persistent low-level stratocumulus. Sensitivity studies showed that the simulated cloud properties are robust to moderate variation in cloud microphysical parameters. Significant sensitivity remains to variation in the dispersion of the ice crystal size distribution and the critical size for ice autoconversion. Despite these issues, the implementation of the new microphysics leads to a considerably improved and more realistic representation of cloud processes in GEOS-5, and allows the linkage of cloud properties to aerosol emissions.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alexander J. Winkler ◽  
Ranga B. Myneni ◽  
Markus Reichstein ◽  
Victor Brovkin

<div> <div> <div> <p>The prevailing understanding of the carbon-cycle response to anthropogenic CO<sub>2 </sub>emissions suggests that it depends only on the magnitude of this forcing, not on its timing. However, a recent study (Winkler <em>et al</em>., <em>Earth System Dynamics</em>, 2019) demonstrated that the same magnitude of CO<sub>2 </sub>forcing causes considerably different responses in various Earth system models when realized following different temporal trajectories. Because the modeling community focuses on concentration-driven runs that do not represent a fully-coupled carbon-cycle-climate continuum, and the experimental setups are mainly limited to exponential forcing timelines, the effect of different temporal trajectories of CO<sub>2 </sub>emissions in the system is under-explored. Together, this could lead to an incomplete notion of the carbon-cycle response to anthropogenic CO<sub>2 </sub>emissions.</p> <p>We use the latest CMIP6 version of the Max-Planck-Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM1.2) with a fully-coupled carbon cycle to investigate the effect of emission timing in form of four drastically different pathways. All pathways emit an identical total of 1200 Pg C over 200 years, which is about the IPCC estimate to stay below 2 °K of warming, and the approximate amount needed to double the atmospheric CO<sub>2 </sub>concentration. The four pathways differ only in their CO<sub>2 </sub>emission rates, which include a constant, a negative parabolic (ramp-up/ramp-down), a linearly decreasing, and an exponentially increasing emission trajectory. These experiments are idealized, but designed not to exceed the observed maximum emission rates, and thus can be placed in the context of the observed system.</p> <p>We find that the resulting atmospheric CO<sub>2 </sub>concentration, after all the carbon has been emitted, can vary as much as 100 ppm between the different pathways. The simulations show that for pathways, where the system is exposed to higher rates of CO<sub>2 </sub>emissions early in the forcing timeline, there is considerably less excess CO<sub>2 </sub>in the atmosphere at the end. These pathways also show an airborne fraction approaching zero in the final decades of the simulation. At this point, the carbon sinks have reached a strength that removes more carbon from the atmosphere than is emitted. In contrast, the exponentially increasing pathway with high CO<sub>2 </sub>emission rates in the last decades of the simulation, the pathway usually studied, shows a fairly stable airborne fraction. We propose a new general framework to estimate the atmospheric growth rate of CO<sub>2 </sub>not only as a function of the emission rate, but also include the aspect of time the system has been exposed to excess CO<sub>2 </sub>in the atmosphere. As a result, the transient temperature response is a function not only of the cumulative CO<sub>2 </sub>emissions, but also of the time the system was exposed to the excess CO<sub>2</sub>. We also apply this framework to other Earth system models and observational records of CO<sub>2 </sub>concentration and emissions.</p> </div> </div> </div><div> <div> <div> <p>The Earth system is currently in a phase of increasing, nearly exponential CO<sub>2 </sub>forcing. The impact of excess CO<sub>2 </sub>exposure time could become apparent as we approach the point of maximum CO<sub>2 </sub>emission rate, affecting the achievability of the climate targets.</p> </div> </div> </div>


2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yuanqiao Wu ◽  
Ed Chan ◽  
Joe R. Melton ◽  
Diana L. Verseghy

Abstract. Peatlands store large amounts of soil carbon and constitute an important component of the global carbon cycle. Accurate information on the global extent and distribution of peatlands is presently lacking but it important for earth system models (ESMs) to be able to simulate the effects of climate change on the global carbon balance. The most comprehensive peatland map produced to date is a qualitative presence/absence product. Here, we present a spatially continuous global map of peatland fractional coverage using the extremely randomized tree machine learning method suitable for use as a prescribed geophysical field in an ESM. Inputs to our statistical model include spatially distributed climate data, soil data and topographical slopes. Available maps of peatland fractional coverage for Canada and West Siberia were used along with a proxy for non-peatland areas to train and test the statistical model. Regions where the peatland fraction is expected to be zero were estimated from a map of topsoil organic carbon content below a threshold value of 13 kg/m2. The modelled coverage of peatlands yields a root mean square error of 4 % and a coefficient of determination of 0.91 for the 10,978 tested 0.5 degree grid cells. We then generated a complete global peatland fractional coverage map. In comparison with earlier qualitative estimates, our global modelled peatland map is able to reproduce peatland distributions in places remote from the training areas and capture peatland hot spots in both boreal and tropical regions, as well as in the southern hemisphere. Additionally we demonstrate that our machine-learning method has greater skill than solely setting peatland areas based on histosols from a soil database.


2012 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 917-966 ◽  
Author(s):  
C. Stepanek ◽  
G. Lohmann

Abstract. In this manuscript we describe the experimental procedure employed at the Alfred Wegener Institute in Germany in the preparation of the simulations for the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP). We present a description of the utilized community earth system models (COSMOS) and document the procedures which we applied to transfer the Pliocene Research, Interpretation and Synoptic Mapping Project (PRISM) mid-Pliocene reconstruction into model forcing fields. The model setup and spin-up procedure are described for both the paleo and preindustrial (PI) time-slices of PlioMIP experiments 1 and 2, and general results that depict the performance of our model setup for mid-Pliocene conditions are presented. The mid-Pliocene as simulated with our COSMOS-setup and PRISM boundary conditions is both warmer and wetter than the PI. The globally averaged annual mean surface air temperature in the mid-Pliocene standalone atmosphere (fully coupled atmosphere-ocean) simulation is 17.35 °C (17.82 °C), which implies a warming of 2.23 °C (3.40 °C) relative to the respective PI control simulation.


1995 ◽  
Vol 38 (1-4) ◽  
pp. 29-62 ◽  
Author(s):  
R.L. Walko ◽  
W.R. Cotton ◽  
M.P. Meyers ◽  
J.Y. Harrington

2017 ◽  
Vol 17 (17) ◽  
pp. 10195-10221 ◽  
Author(s):  
Constantino Listowski ◽  
Tom Lachlan-Cope

Abstract. The first intercomparisons of cloud microphysics schemes implemented in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) mesoscale atmospheric model (version 3.5.1) are performed on the Antarctic Peninsula using the polar version of WRF (Polar WRF) at 5 km resolution, along with comparisons to the British Antarctic Survey's aircraft measurements (presented in part 1 of this work; Lachlan-Cope et al., 2016). This study follows previous works suggesting the misrepresentation of the cloud thermodynamic phase in order to explain large radiative biases derived at the surface in Polar WRF continent-wide (at 15 km or coarser horizontal resolution) and in the Polar WRF-based operational forecast model Antarctic Mesoscale Prediction System (AMPS) over the Larsen C Ice Shelf at 5 km horizontal resolution. Five cloud microphysics schemes are investigated: the WRF single-moment five-class scheme (WSM5), the WRF double-moment six-class scheme (WDM6), the Morrison double-moment scheme, the Thompson scheme, and the Milbrandt–Yau double-moment seven-class scheme. WSM5 (used in AMPS) and WDM6 (an upgrade version of WSM5) lead to the largest biases in observed supercooled liquid phase and surface radiative biases. The schemes simulating clouds in closest agreement to the observations are the Morrison, Thompson, and Milbrandt schemes for their better average prediction of occurrences of clouds and cloud phase. Interestingly, those three schemes are also the ones allowing for significant reduction of the longwave surface radiative bias over the Larsen C Ice Shelf (eastern side of the peninsula). This is important for surface energy budget consideration with Polar WRF since the cloud radiative effect is more pronounced in the infrared over icy surfaces. Overall, the Morrison scheme compares better to the cloud observation and radiation measurements. The fact that WSM5 and WDM6 are single-moment parameterizations for the ice crystals is responsible for their lesser ability to model the supercooled liquid clouds compared to the other schemes. However, our investigation shows that all the schemes fail at simulating the supercooled liquid mass at some temperatures (altitudes) where observations show evidence of its persistence. An ice nuclei parameterization relying on both temperature and aerosol content like DeMott et al. (2010) (not currently used in WRF cloud schemes) is in best agreement with the observations, at temperatures and aerosol concentration characteristic of the Antarctic Peninsula where the primary ice production occurs (part 1), compared to parameterization only relying on the atmospheric temperature (used by the WRF cloud schemes). Overall, a realistic double-moment ice microphysics implementation is needed for the correct representation of the supercooled liquid phase in Antarctic clouds. Moreover, a more realistic ice-nucleating particle alone is not enough to improve the cloud modelling, and water vapour and temperature biases also need to be further investigated and reduced.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jean Bidlot

<p>The global analyses and medium range forecasts from the European Centre for Medium range Weather Forecasts rely on a state-of-the-art Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) system. To best represent the air-sea exchanges, it is tightly coupled to an ocean wave model.  As part of ECMWF approach to Earth System Model, it is also coupled to a global ocean model for all its forecasting systems from the medium range up to the seasonal time scale.</p><p>Because the feedback from and to the ocean can be significant, it is only in the fully coupled system that parameterisation for air-sea processes should be revisited. For instance, it is now accepted that the drag coefficient should generally attained maximum values for storm winds but should level or even decrease for very strong winds, namely in tropical cyclones or intense mid-latitude wind storms.</p><p>A modification of the wind input source was tested, whereby the Charnock coefficient estimated by the wave model and therefore the drag coefficient sharply reduce for large winds (> 30 m/s). As a consequence, ECMWF tendency to under predict strong tropical cyclones was sharply alleviated, in better agreement with observational evidence. This change is now planned for operational implementation with the next model cycle (CY47R1, June 2020).</p><p>Experimental evidences also point to a sea state/wind dependency of the heat and moisture fluxes.  Following an extension of the wind wave generation theory, a sea state dependent parameterisation for the roughness length scales for heat and humidity has been tested. Again, a proper assessment of the different parameterisations warrants the fully coupled system. Experimentations so far indicate the benefit of such change. Ongoing work aims at future operational implementation.</p>


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