scholarly journals Statistical estimation of global surface temperature response to forcing under the assumption of temporal scaling

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eirik Myrvoll-Nilsen ◽  
Sigrunn Holbek Sørbye ◽  
Hege-Beate Fredriksen ◽  
Håvard Rue ◽  
Martin Rypdal
Keyword(s):  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Long Range ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Temperature Response ◽  
R Package ◽  
Balance Model ◽  
Temperature Record ◽  
Modeling Framework ◽  
Transient Climate Response ◽  
Reliable Quantification

Abstract. Reliable quantification of the global mean surface temperature (GMST) response to radiative forcing is essential for assessing the risk of dangerous anthropogenic climate change. We present the statistical foundations for an observation-based approach, using a stochastic linear-response model that is consistent with the long-range temporal dependence observed in global temperature variability. We have incorporated the model in a latent Gaussian modeling framework, which allows for the use of integrated nested Laplace approximations (INLAs) to perform full Bayesian analysis. As examples of applications, we estimate the GMST response to forcing from historical data and compute temperature trajectories under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) for future greenhouse gas forcing. For historic runs in the Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) ensemble, we estimate response functions and demonstrate that one can infer the transient climate response (TCR) from the instrumental temperature record. We illustrate the effect of long-range dependence by comparing the results with those obtained from a 1-box energy balance model. The software developed to perform the given analyses is publicly available as the R-package INLA.climate.

scholarly journals Statistical estimation of global surface temperature response to forcing under the assumption of temporal scaling

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 329-345
Author(s):  
Eirik Myrvoll-Nilsen ◽  
Sigrunn Holbek Sørbye ◽  
Hege-Beate Fredriksen ◽  
Håvard Rue ◽  
Martin Rypdal
Keyword(s):  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Long Range ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Temperature Response ◽  
R Package ◽  
Temperature Record ◽  
Modeling Framework ◽  
Transient Climate Response ◽  
Intercomparison Project ◽  
Reliable Quantification

Abstract. Reliable quantification of the global mean surface temperature (GMST) response to radiative forcing is essential for assessing the risk of dangerous anthropogenic climate change. We present the statistical foundations for an observation-based approach using a stochastic linear response model that is consistent with the long-range temporal dependence observed in global temperature variability. We have incorporated the model in a latent Gaussian modeling framework, which allows for the use of integrated nested Laplace approximations (INLAs) to perform full Bayesian analysis. As examples of applications, we estimate the GMST response to forcing from historical data and compute temperature trajectories under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) for future greenhouse gas forcing. For historic runs in the Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) ensemble, we estimate response functions and demonstrate that one can infer the transient climate response (TCR) from the instrumental temperature record. We illustrate the effect of long-range dependence by comparing the results with those obtained from one-box and two-box energy balance models. The software developed to perform the given analyses is publicly available as the R package INLA.climate.

scholarly journals Emergent Scale Invariance and Climate Sensitivity

Climate ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 6 (4) ◽  
pp. 93 ◽  
Author(s):  
Martin Rypdal ◽  
Hege-Beate Fredriksen ◽  
Eirik Myrvoll-Nilsen ◽  
Kristoffer Rypdal ◽  
Sigrunn Sørbye
Keyword(s):  
Climate Sensitivity ◽  
Scale Invariance ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Temperature Response ◽  
Temperature Record ◽  
Radiative Balance ◽  
Global Surface ◽  
Earth System Models ◽  
Climate Responses ◽  
Best Estimates

Earth’s global surface temperature shows variability on an extended range of temporal scales and satisfies an emergent scaling symmetry. Recent studies indicate that scale invariance is not only a feature of the observed temperature fluctuations, but an inherent property of the temperature response to radiative forcing, and a principle that links the fast and slow climate responses. It provides a bridge between the decadal- and centennial-scale fluctuations in the instrumental temperature record, and the millennial-scale equilibration following perturbations in the radiative balance. In particular, the emergent scale invariance makes it possible to infer equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) from the observed relation between radiative forcing and global temperature in the instrumental era. This is verified in ensembles of Earth system models (ESMs), where the inferred values of ECS correlate strongly to estimates from idealized model runs. For the range of forcing data explored in this paper, the method gives best estimates of ECS between 1.8 and 3.7 K, but statistical uncertainties in the best estimates themselves will provide a wider likely range of the ECS.

scholarly journals Anthropogenic and Natural Radiative Forcing: Positive Feedbacks

2018 ◽  
Vol 6 (4) ◽  
pp. 146 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jean-Louis Pinault
Keyword(s):  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Rossby Waves ◽  
Temperature Response ◽  
Heat Fluxes ◽  
Lapse Rate ◽  
Positive Feedbacks ◽  
Long Period ◽  
Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies ◽  
The Impact

This article is based on recent work intended to estimate the impact of solar forcing mediated by long-period ocean Rossby waves that are resonantly forced—the ‘Gyral Rossby Waves’ (GRWs). Here, we deduce both the part of the anthropogenic and climate components within the instrumental surface temperature spatial patterns. The natural variations in temperature are estimated from a weighted sum of sea surface temperature anomalies in preselected areas of subtropical gyres representative of long-period GRWs. The temperature response to anthropogenic forcing is deduced by subtracting the climate component from the instrumental temperature. Depending on whether the inland regions are primarily impacted by latent or sensible heat fluxes from the oceans, positive feedbacks occur. This suggests that the lapse rate and the high troposphere cloud cover have a driving role in the amplification effect of anthropogenic climate forcing, while specifying the involved mechanisms.

scholarly journals The Relationship between Land–Ocean Surface Temperature Contrast and Radiative Forcing

2011 ◽  
Vol 24 (13) ◽  
pp. 3239-3256 ◽  
Author(s):  
F. Hugo Lambert ◽  
Mark J. Webb ◽  
Manoj M. Joshi
Keyword(s):  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Heat Transport ◽  
Temperature Change ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Co2 Concentration ◽  
Ocean Surface ◽  
Heat Fluxes ◽  
Balance Model ◽  
Surface Temperature Change

Abstract Previous work has demonstrated that observed and modeled climates show a near-time-invariant ratio of mean land to mean ocean surface temperature change under transient and equilibrium global warming. This study confirms this in a range of atmospheric models coupled to perturbed sea surface temperatures (SSTs), slab (thermodynamics only) oceans, and a fully coupled ocean. Away from equilibrium, it is found that the atmospheric processes that maintain the ratio cause a land-to-ocean heat transport anomaly that can be approximated using a two-box energy balance model. When climate is forced by increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration, the heat transport anomaly moves heat from land to ocean, constraining the land to warm in step with the ocean surface, despite the small heat capacity of the land. The heat transport anomaly is strongly related to the top-of-atmosphere radiative flux imbalance, and hence it tends to a small value as equilibrium is approached. In contrast, when climate is forced by prescribing changes in SSTs, the heat transport anomaly replaces “missing” radiative forcing over land by moving heat from ocean to land, warming the land surface. The heat transport anomaly remains substantial in steady state. These results are consistent with earlier studies that found that both land and ocean surface temperature changes may be approximated as local responses to global mean radiative forcing. The modeled heat transport anomaly has large impacts on surface heat fluxes but small impacts on precipitation, circulation, and cloud radiative forcing compared with the impacts of surface temperature change. No substantial nonlinearities are found in these atmospheric variables when the effects of forcing and surface temperature change are added.

scholarly journals A Limited Role for Unforced Internal Variability in Twentieth-Century Warming

2019 ◽  
Vol 32 (16) ◽  
pp. 4893-4917 ◽  
Author(s):  
Karsten Haustein ◽  
Friederike E. L. Otto ◽  
Victor Venema ◽  
Peter Jacobs ◽  
Kevin Cowtan ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Twentieth Century ◽  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Low Frequency ◽  
Internal Variability ◽  
External Forcing ◽  
Anthropogenic Aerosol ◽  
Transient Climate Response ◽  
The North ◽  
Aerosol Forcing

AbstractThe early twentieth-century warming (EW; 1910–45) and the mid-twentieth-century cooling (MC; 1950–80) have been linked to both internal variability of the climate system and changes in external radiative forcing. The degree to which either of the two factors contributed to EW and MC, or both, is still debated. Using a two-box impulse response model, we demonstrate that multidecadal ocean variability was unlikely to be the driver of observed changes in global mean surface temperature (GMST) after AD 1850. Instead, virtually all (97%–98%) of the global low-frequency variability (>30 years) can be explained by external forcing. We find similarly high percentages of explained variance for interhemispheric and land–ocean temperature evolution. Three key aspects are identified that underpin the conclusion of this new study: inhomogeneous anthropogenic aerosol forcing (AER), biases in the instrumental sea surface temperature (SST) datasets, and inadequate representation of the response to varying forcing factors. Once the spatially heterogeneous nature of AER is accounted for, the MC period is reconcilable with external drivers. SST biases and imprecise forcing responses explain the putative disagreement between models and observations during the EW period. As a consequence, Atlantic multidecadal variability (AMV) is found to be primarily controlled by external forcing too. Future attribution studies should account for these important factors when discriminating between externally forced and internally generated influences on climate. We argue that AMV must not be used as a regressor and suggest a revised AMV index instead [the North Atlantic Variability Index (NAVI)]. Our associated best estimate for the transient climate response (TCR) is 1.57 K (±0.70 at the 5%–95% confidence level).

scholarly journals Transient Climate Response in a Two-Layer Energy-Balance Model. Part II: Representation of the Efficacy of Deep-Ocean Heat Uptake and Validation for CMIP5 AOGCMs

2013 ◽  
Vol 26 (6) ◽  
pp. 1859-1876 ◽  
Author(s):  
O. Geoffroy ◽  
D. Saint-Martin ◽  
G. Bellon ◽  
A. Voldoire ◽  
D. J. L. Olivié ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Thermal Properties ◽  
Energy Balance ◽  
Surface Temperature ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Deep Ocean ◽  
Energy Balance Model ◽  
Balance Model ◽  
Ocean Heat Uptake ◽  
Transient Climate Response ◽  
Heat Uptake

Abstract In this second part of a series of two articles analyzing the global thermal properties of atmosphere–ocean coupled general circulation models (AOGCMs) within the framework of a two-layer energy-balance model (EBM), the role of the efficacy of deep-ocean heat uptake is investigated. Taking into account such an efficacy factor is shown to amount to representing the effect of deep-ocean heat uptake on the local strength of the radiative feedback in the transient regime. It involves an additional term in the formulation of the radiative imbalance at the top of the atmosphere (TOA), which explains the nonlinearity between radiative imbalance and the mean surface temperature observed in some AOGCMs. An analytical solution of this system is given and this simple linear EBM is calibrated for the set of 16 AOGCMs of phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) studied in Part I. It is shown that both the net radiative fluxes at TOA and the global surface temperature transient response are well represented by the simple EBM over the available period of simulations. Differences between this two-layer EBM and the previous version without an efficacy factor are analyzed and relationships between parameters are discussed. The simple model calibration applied to AOGCMs constitutes a new method for estimating their respective equilibrium climate sensitivity and adjusted radiative forcing amplitude from short-term step-forcing simulations and more generally a method to compute their global thermal properties.

scholarly journals Estimating the Impact of Artificially Injected Stratospheric Aerosols on the Global Mean Surface Temperature in the 21th Century

Climate ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 6 (4) ◽  
pp. 85 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sergei Soldatenko
Keyword(s):  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Global Temperature ◽  
Balance Model ◽  
Solar Radiation Management ◽  
Aerosol Layer ◽  
Aerosol Emission ◽  
Global Mean Surface Temperature ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Global Mean

In this paper, we apply the optimal control theory to obtain the analytic solutions of the two-component globally averaged energy balance model in order to estimate the influence of solar radiation management (SRM) operations on the global mean surface temperature in the 21st century. It is assumed that SRM is executed via injection of sulfur aerosols into the stratosphere to limit the global temperature increase in the year 2100 by 1.5 °C and keeping global temperature over the specified period (2020–2100) within 2 °C as required by the Paris climate agreement. The radiative forcing produced by the rise in the atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases is defined by the Representative Concentration Pathways and the 1pctCO2 (1% per year CO2 increase) scenario. The goal of SRM is formulated in terms of extremal problem, which entails finding a control function (the albedo of aerosol layer) that minimizes the amount of aerosols injected into the upper atmosphere to satisfy the Paris climate target. For each climate change scenario, the optimal albedo of the aerosol layer and the corresponding global mean surface temperature changes were obtained. In addition, the aerosol emission rates required to create an aerosol cloud with optimal optical properties were calculated.

scholarly journals The Moist Adiabat, Key of the Climate Response to Anthropogenic Forcing

Climate ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (3) ◽  
pp. 45 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jean-Louis Pinault
Keyword(s):  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Temperature Response ◽  
Heat Fluxes ◽  
Climate System ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Longitudinal Distribution ◽  
Absorption Bands ◽  
Anthropogenic Forcing ◽  
Heat Exchanges

A straightforward mechanism based on properties of the moist adiabat is proposed to construe the observed latitudinal and longitudinal distribution of the anthropogenic forcing efficiency. Considering precipitation patterns at the planetary scale, idealized environmental adiabats leading to low-pressure systems are deduced. When the climate system responds to a small perturbation, which reflects radiative forcing that follows increasing anthropogenic emissions, the dry and moist adiabatic lapse rates move away from each other as the temperature of the moist adiabat at the altitude z = 0 increases. When the atmosphere becomes unstable, under the influence of the perturbation, a positive feedback loop occurs because of a transient change in the emission level height of outgoing longwave radiation in the saturated absorption bands of water vapor. During these periods of instability, the perturbation of the climate system is exerted with the concomitant warming of the surface temperature. In contrast, the return of the surface temperature to its initial value before the development of the cyclonic system is very slow because heat exchanges are mainly ruled by latent and sensible heat fluxes. Consequently, the mean surface temperature turns out to result from successive events with asymmetrical surface–atmosphere heat exchanges. The forcing efficiency differs according to whether atmospheric instability has a continental or oceanic origin. Hence the rendition of the latitudinal and longitudinal distribution of the observed surface temperature response to anthropogenic forcing, which specifies in detail the mechanisms involved in the various climate systems, including the Arctic amplification.

scholarly journals An empirical model of global climate – Part 1: A critical evaluation of volcanic cooling

2013 ◽  
Vol 13 (8) ◽  
pp. 3997-4031 ◽  
Author(s):  
T. Canty ◽  
N. R. Mascioli ◽  
M. D. Smarte ◽  
R. J. Salawitch
Keyword(s):  
Surface Temperature ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Volcanic Eruptions ◽  
Meridional Overturning Circulation ◽  
Temperature Record ◽  
Surface Cooling ◽  
Global Cooling ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Observed reductions in Earth's surface temperature following explosive volcanic eruptions have been used as a proxy for geoengineering of climate by the artificial enhancement of stratospheric sulfate. Earth cools following major eruptions due to an increase in the reflection of sunlight caused by a dramatic enhancement of the stratospheric sulfate aerosol burden. Significant global cooling has been observed following the four major eruptions since 1900: Santa María, Mount Agung, El Chichón and Mt. Pinatubo, leading IPCC (2007) to state "major volcanic eruptions can, thus, cause a drop in global mean surface temperature of about half a degree Celsius that can last for months and even years". We use a multiple linear regression model applied to the global surface temperature anomaly to suggest that exchange of heat between the atmosphere and ocean, driven by variations in the strength of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), has been a factor in the decline of global temperature following these eruptions. The veracity of this suggestion depends on whether sea surface temperature (SST) in the North Atlantic, sometimes called the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, but here referred to as Atlantic Multidecadal Variability (AMV), truly represents a proxy for the strength of the AMOC. Also, precise quantification of global cooling due to volcanoes depends on how the AMV index is detrended. If the AMV index is detrended using anthropogenic radiative forcing of climate, we find that surface cooling attributed to Mt. Pinatubo, using the Hadley Centre/University of East Anglia surface temperature record, maximises at 0.14 °C globally and 0.32 °C over land. These values are about a factor of 2 less than found when the AMV index is neglected in the model and quite a bit lower than the canonical 0.5 °C cooling usually attributed to Pinatubo. This result is driven by the high amplitude, low frequency component of the AMV index, demonstrating that reduced impact of volcanic cooling upon consideration of the AMV index is driven by variations in North Atlantic SST that occur over time periods much longer than those commonly associated with major volcanic eruptions. The satellite record of atmospheric temperature from 1978 to present and other century-long surface temperature records are also consistent with the suggestion that volcanic cooling may have been over estimated by about a factor of 2 due to prior neglect of ocean circulation. Our study suggests a recalibration may be needed for the proper use of Mt. Pinatubo as a proxy for geoengineering of climate. Finally, we highlight possible shortcomings in simulations of volcanic cooling by general circulation models, which are also being used to assess the impact of geoengineering of climate via stratospheric sulfate injection.

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