scholarly journals Quantifying the added value of convection-permitting climate simulations in complex terrain: a systematic evaluation of WRF over the Himalayas

2017 ◽  
Vol 8 (3) ◽  
pp. 507-528 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ramchandra Karki ◽  
Shabeh ul Hasson ◽  
Lars Gerlitz ◽  
Udo Schickhoff ◽  
Thomas Scholten ◽  
...  

Abstract. Mesoscale dynamical refinements of global climate models or atmospheric reanalysis have shown their potential to resolve intricate atmospheric processes, their land surface interactions, and subsequently, realistic distribution of climatic fields in complex terrains. Given that such potential is yet to be explored within the central Himalayan region of Nepal, we investigate the skill of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with different spatial resolutions in reproducing the spatial, seasonal, and diurnal characteristics of the near-surface air temperature and precipitation as well as the spatial shifts in the diurnal monsoonal precipitation peak over the Khumbu (Everest), Rolwaling, and adjacent southern areas. Therefore, the ERA-Interim (0.75°) reanalysis has been dynamically refined to 25, 5, and 1 km (D1, D2, and D3) for one complete hydrological year (October 2014–September 2015), using the one-way nested WRF model run with mild nudging and parameterized convection for the outer but explicitly resolved convection for the inner domains. Our results suggest that D3 realistically reproduces the monsoonal precipitation, as compared to its underestimation by D1 but overestimation by D2. All three resolutions, however, overestimate precipitation from the westerly disturbances, owing to simulating anomalously higher intensity of few intermittent events. Temperatures are generally reproduced well by all resolutions; however, winter and pre-monsoon seasons feature a high cold bias for high elevations while lower elevations show a simultaneous warm bias. Unlike higher resolutions, D1 fails to realistically reproduce the regional-scale nocturnal monsoonal peak precipitation observed in the Himalayan foothills and its diurnal shift towards high elevations, whereas D2 resolves these characteristics but exhibits a limited skill in reproducing such a peak on the river valley scale due to the limited representation of the narrow valleys at 5 km resolution. Nonetheless, featuring a substantial skill over D1 and D2, D3 simulates almost realistic shapes of the seasonal and diurnal precipitation and the peak timings even on valley scales. These findings clearly suggest an added value of the convective-scale resolutions in realistically resolving the topoclimates over the central Himalayas, which in turn allows simulating their interactions with the synoptic-scale weather systems prevailing over high Asia.

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ramchandra Karki ◽  
Shabeh Hasson ◽  
Lars Gerlitz ◽  
Udo Schickhoff ◽  
Thomas Scholten ◽  
...  

Abstract. Mesoscale dynamical refinements of global climate models or atmospheric reanalysis have shown their potential to resolve the intricate atmospheric processes, their land surface interactions, and subsequently, realistic distribution of climatic fields in complex terrains. Given that such potential is yet to be explored within the central Himalayan region of Nepal, we investigate the skill of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with different spatial resolutions in reproducing the spatial, seasonal and diurnal characteristics of the near-surface air temperature and precipitation, as well as, the spatial shifts in the diurnal monsoonal precipitation peak over the Khumbu (Everest), Rolwaling and adjacent southern areas. Therefore, the ERA-Interim (0.75°) reanalysis has been dynamically refined to 25, 5 and 1 km (D1, D2 and D3) for one complete hydrological year (Oct 2014–Sep 2015), using the one-way nested WRF model run with mild-nudging and parameterized convection for the outer but explicitly resolved convection for the inner domains. Our results suggest that D3 realistically reproduces the monsoonal precipitation, as compared to its underestimation by D1 but overestimation by D2. All three resolutions however overestimate precipitation from the westerly disturbances, owing to simulating anomalously higher intensity of few intermittent events. Temperatures are though generally well reproduced by all resolutions, winter and pre-monsoon seasons feature a high cold bias for high elevations while lower show a simultaneous warm bias. Contrary to higher resolutions, D1 fails to realistically reproduce the regional-scale nocturnal monsoonal peak precipitation observed at the Himalayan foothills and its diurnal shift towards high elevations, whereas D2 resolves these characteristics but exhibits a limited skill in reproducing such peak at the river valley scale due to the limited representation of the narrow valleys at 5 km resolution. Nonetheless, featuring a substantial skill over D1 and D2, D3 simulates almost realistic shapes of the seasonal and diurnal precipitation and the peak timings even at valley scales. These findings clearly suggest an added value of the convective scale resolutions in realistically resolving the topo-climates over the central Himalaya, which in turn allow simulating their interactions with the synoptic scale weather systems prevailing over High Asia.


2016 ◽  
Vol 31 (1) ◽  
pp. 197-216 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jeffrey D. Massey ◽  
W. James Steenburgh ◽  
Jason C. Knievel ◽  
William Y. Y. Cheng

Abstract Operational Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model forecasts run over Dugway Proving Ground (DPG) in northwest Utah, produced by the U.S. Army Test and Evaluation Command Four-Dimensional Weather System (4DWX), underpredict the amplitude of the diurnal temperature cycle during September and October. Mean afternoon [2000 UTC (1300 LST)] and early morning [1100 UTC (0400 LST)] 2-m temperature bias errors evaluated against 195 surface stations using 6- and 12-h forecasts are –1.37° and 1.66°C, respectively. Bias errors relative to soundings and 4DWX-DPG analyses illustrate that the afternoon cold bias extends from the surface to above the top of the planetary boundary layer, whereas the early morning warm bias develops in the lowest model levels and is confined to valleys and basins. These biases are largest during mostly clear conditions and are caused primarily by a regional overestimation of near-surface soil moisture in operational land surface analyses, which do not currently assimilate in situ soil moisture observations. Bias correction of these soil moisture analyses using data from 42 North American Soil Moisture Database stations throughout the Intermountain West reduces both the afternoon and early morning bias errors and improves forecasts of upper-level temperature and stability. These results illustrate that the assimilation of in situ and remotely sensed soil moisture observations, including those from the recently launched NASA Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) mission, have the potential to greatly improve land surface analyses and near-surface temperature forecasts over arid regions.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mickaël Lalande ◽  
Martin Ménégoz ◽  
Gerhard Krinner

<p>The High Mountains of Asia (HMA) region and the Tibetan Plateau (TP), with an average altitude of 4000 m, are hosting the third largest reservoir of glaciers and snow after the two polar ice caps, and are at the origin of strong orographic precipitation. Climate studies over HMA are related to serious challenges concerning the exposure of human infrastructures to natural hazards and the water resources for agriculture, drinking water, and hydroelectricity to whom several hundred million inhabitants of the Indian subcontinent are depending. However, climate variables such as temperature, precipitation, and snow cover are poorly described by global climate models because their coarse resolution is not adapted to the rugged topography of this region. Since the first CMIP exercises, a cold model bias has been identified in this region, however, its attribution is not obvious and may be different from one model to another. Our study focuses on a multi-model comparison of the CMIP6 simulations used to investigate the climate variability in this area to answer the next questions: (1) are the biases in HMA reduced in the new generation of climate models? (2) Do the model biases impact the simulated climate trends? (3) What are the links between the model biases in temperature, precipitation, and snow cover extent? (4) Which climate trajectories can be projected in this area until 2100? An analysis of 27 models over 1979-2014 still show a cold bias in near-surface air temperature over the HMA and TP reaching an annual value of -2.0 °C (± 3.2 °C), associated with an over-extended relative snow cover extent of 53 % (± 62 %), and a relative excess of precipitation of 139 % (± 38 %), knowing that the precipitation biases are uncertain because of the undercatch of solid precipitation in observations. Model biases and trends do not show any clear links, suggesting that biased models should not be excluded in trend and projections analysis, although non-linear effects related to lagged snow cover feedbacks could be expected. On average over 2081-2100 with respect to 1995-2014, for the scenarios SSP126, SSP245, SSP370, and SSP585, the 9 available models shows respectively an increase in annual temperature of 1.9 °C (± 0.5 °C), 3.4 °C (± 0.7 °C), 5.2 °C (± 1.2 °C), and 6.6 °C (± 1.5 °C); a relative decrease in the snow cover extent of 10 % (± 4.1 %), 19 % (± 5 %), 29 % (± 8 %), and 35 % (± 9 %); and an increase in total precipitation of 9 % (± 5 %), 13 % (± 7 %), 19 % (± 11 %), and 27 % (± 13 %). Further analyses will be considered to investigate potential links between the biases at the surface and those at higher tropospheric levels as well as with the topography. The models based on high resolution do not perform better than the coarse-gridded ones, suggesting that the race to high resolution should be considered as a second priority after the developments of more realistic physical parameterizations.</p>


2020 ◽  
Vol 21 (12) ◽  
pp. 2829-2853 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marouane Temimi ◽  
Ricardo Fonseca ◽  
Narendra Nelli ◽  
Michael Weston ◽  
Mohan Thota ◽  
...  

AbstractA thorough evaluation of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model is conducted over the United Arab Emirates, for the period September 2017–August 2018. Two simulations are performed: one with the default model settings (control run), and another one (experiment) with an improved representation of soil texture and land use land cover (LULC). The model predictions are evaluated against observations at 35 weather stations, radiosonde profiles at the coastal Abu Dhabi International Airport, and surface fluxes from eddy-covariance measurements at the inland city of Al Ain. It is found that WRF’s cold temperature bias, also present in the forcing data and seen almost exclusively at night, is reduced when the surface and soil properties are updated, by as much as 3.5 K. This arises from the expansion of the urban areas, and the replacement of loamy regions with sand, which has a higher thermal inertia. However, the model continues to overestimate the strength of the near-surface wind at all stations and seasons, typically by 0.5–1.5 m s−1. It is concluded that the albedo of barren/sparsely vegetated regions in WRF (0.380) is higher than that inferred from eddy-covariance observations (0.340), which can also explain the referred cold bias. At the Abu Dhabi site, even though soil texture and LULC are not changed, there is a small but positive effect on the predicted vertical profiles of temperature, humidity, and horizontal wind speed, mostly between 950 and 750 hPa, possibly because of differences in vertical mixing.


2021 ◽  
Vol 17 (4) ◽  
pp. 1665-1684
Author(s):  
Leonore Jungandreas ◽  
Cathy Hohenegger ◽  
Martin Claussen

Abstract. Global climate models experience difficulties in simulating the northward extension of the monsoonal precipitation over north Africa during the mid-Holocene as revealed by proxy data. A common feature of these models is that they usually operate on grids that are too coarse to explicitly resolve convection, but convection is the most essential mechanism leading to precipitation in the West African Monsoon region. Here, we investigate how the representation of tropical deep convection in the ICOsahedral Nonhydrostatic (ICON) climate model affects the meridional distribution of monsoonal precipitation during the mid-Holocene by comparing regional simulations of the summer monsoon season (July to September; JAS) with parameterized and explicitly resolved convection. In the explicitly resolved convection simulation, the more localized nature of precipitation and the absence of permanent light precipitation as compared to the parameterized convection simulation is closer to expectations. However, in the JAS mean, the parameterized convection simulation produces more precipitation and extends further north than the explicitly resolved convection simulation, especially between 12 and 17∘ N. The higher precipitation rates in the parameterized convection simulation are consistent with a stronger monsoonal circulation over land. Furthermore, the atmosphere in the parameterized convection simulation is less stably stratified and notably moister. The differences in atmospheric water vapor are the result of substantial differences in the probability distribution function of precipitation and its resulting interactions with the land surface. The parametrization of convection produces light and large-scale precipitation, keeping the soils moist and supporting the development of convection. In contrast, less frequent but locally intense precipitation events lead to high amounts of runoff in the explicitly resolved convection simulations. The stronger runoff inhibits the moistening of the soil during the monsoon season and limits the amount of water available to evaporation in the explicitly resolved convection simulation.


2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (9) ◽  
pp. 3975-3993 ◽  
Author(s):  
Miguel Nogueira ◽  
Clément Albergel ◽  
Souhail Boussetta ◽  
Frederico Johannsen ◽  
Isabel F. Trigo ◽  
...  

Abstract. Earth observations were used to evaluate the representation of land surface temperature (LST) and vegetation coverage over Iberia in two state-of-the-art land surface models (LSMs) – the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Carbon-Hydrology Tiled ECMWF Scheme for Surface Exchanges over Land (CHTESSEL) and the Météo-France Interaction between Soil Biosphere and Atmosphere model (ISBA) within the SURface EXternalisée modeling platform (SURFEX-ISBA) for the 2004–2015 period. The results showed that the daily maximum LST simulated by CHTESSEL over Iberia was affected by a large cold bias during summer months when compared against the Satellite Application Facility on Land Surface Analysis (LSA-SAF), reaching magnitudes larger than 10 ∘C over wide portions of central and southwestern Iberia. This error was shown to be tightly linked to a misrepresentation of the vegetation cover.  In contrast, SURFEX simulations did not display such a cold bias. We show that this was due to the better representation of vegetation cover in SURFEX, which uses an updated land cover dataset (ECOCLIMAP-II) and an interactive vegetation evolution, representing seasonality. The representation of vegetation over Iberia in CHTESSEL was improved by combining information from the European Space Agency Climate Change Initiative (ESA-CCI) land cover dataset with the Copernicus Global Land Service (CGLS) leaf area index (LAI) and fraction of vegetation coverage (FCOVER). The proposed improvement in vegetation also included a clumping approach that introduces seasonality to the vegetation cover. The results showed significant added value, removing the daily maximum LST summer cold bias completely, without reducing the accuracy of the simulated LST, regardless of season or time of the day. The striking performance differences between SURFEX and CHTESSEL were fundamental to guiding the developments in CHTESSEL highlighting the importance of using different models. This work has important implications: first, it takes advantage of LST, a key variable in surface–atmosphere energy and water exchanges, which is closely related to satellite top-of-atmosphere observations, to improve the model's representation of land surface processes. Second, CHTESSEL is the land surface model employed by ECMWF in the production of their weather forecasts and reanalysis; hence systematic errors in land surface variables and fluxes are then propagated into those products. Indeed, we showed that the summer daily maximum LST cold bias over Iberia in CHTESSEL is present in the widely used ECMWF fifth-generation reanalysis (ERA5). Finally, our results provided hints about the interaction between vegetation land–atmosphere exchanges, highlighting the relevance of the vegetation cover and respective seasonality in representing land surface temperature in both CHTESSEL and SURFEX. As a whole, this work demonstrated the added value of using multiple earth observation products for constraining and improving weather and climate simulations.


2017 ◽  
Vol 145 (12) ◽  
pp. 4727-4745 ◽  
Author(s):  
Elena Tomasi ◽  
Lorenzo Giovannini ◽  
Dino Zardi ◽  
Massimiliano de Franceschi

The paper presents the results of high-resolution simulations performed with the WRF Model, coupled with two different land surface schemes, Noah and Noah_MP, with the aim of accurately reproducing winter season meteorological conditions in a typical Alpine valley. Accordingly, model results are compared against data collected during an intensive field campaign performed in the Adige Valley, in the eastern Italian Alps. In particular, the ability of the model in reproducing the time evolution of 2-m temperature and of incoming and outgoing shortwave and longwave radiation is examined. The validation of model results highlights that, in this context, WRF reproduces rather poorly near-surface temperature over snow-covered terrain, with an evident underestimation, during both daytime and nighttime. Furthermore it fails to capture specific atmospheric processes, such as the temporal evolution of the ground-based thermal inversion. The main cause of these errors lies in the miscalculation of the mean gridcell albedo, resulting in an inaccurate estimate of the reflected solar radiation calculated by both Noah and Noah_MP. Therefore, modifications to the initialization, to the land-use classification, and to both land surface models are performed to improve model results, by intervening in the calculation of the albedo, of the snow cover, and of the surface temperature. Qualitative and quantitative analyses show that, after these changes, a significant improvement in the comparability between model results and observations is achieved. In particular, outgoing shortwave radiation is lowered, 2-m temperature maxima increased accordingly, and ground-based thermal inversions are better captured.


2017 ◽  
Vol 14 (18) ◽  
pp. 4209-4227 ◽  
Author(s):  
Johanne H. Rydsaa ◽  
Frode Stordal ◽  
Anders Bryn ◽  
Lena M. Tallaksen

Abstract. Increased shrub and tree cover in high latitudes is a widely observed response to climate change that can lead to positive feedbacks to the regional climate. In this study we evaluate the sensitivity of the near-surface atmosphere to a potential increase in shrub and tree cover in the northern Fennoscandia region. We have applied the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with the Noah-UA land surface module in evaluating biophysical effects of increased shrub cover on the near-surface atmosphere at a fine resolution (5.4 km  ×  5.4 km). Perturbation experiments are performed in which we prescribe a gradual increase in taller vegetation in the alpine shrub and tree cover according to empirically established bioclimatic zones within the study region. We focus on the spring and summer atmospheric response. To evaluate the sensitivity of the atmospheric response to inter-annual variability in climate, simulations were conducted for two contrasting years, one warm and one cold. We find that shrub and tree cover increase leads to a general increase in near-surface temperatures, with the highest influence seen during the snowmelt season and a more moderate effect during summer. We find that the warming effect is stronger in taller vegetation types, with more complex canopies leading to decreases in the surface albedo. Counteracting effects include increased evapotranspiration, which can lead to increased cloud cover, precipitation, and snow cover. We find that the strength of the atmospheric feedback is sensitive to snow cover variations and to a lesser extent to summer temperatures. Our results show that the positive feedback to high-latitude warming induced by increased shrub and tree cover is a robust feature across inter-annual differences in meteorological conditions and will likely play an important role in land–atmosphere feedback processes in the future.


2019 ◽  
Vol 34 (6) ◽  
pp. 1849-1865
Author(s):  
Francisco Salamanca Palou ◽  
Alex Mahalov

Abstract This paper examines summer- and wintertime variations of the surface and near-surface urban heat island (UHI) for the Phoenix metropolitan area using the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), near-surface meteorological observations, and the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model during a 31-day summer- and a 31-day wintertime period. The surface UHI (defined based on the urban–rural land surface temperature difference) is found to be higher at night and during the warm season. On the other hand, the morning surface UHI is low and frequently exhibits an urban cool island that increases during the summertime period. Similarly, the near-surface UHI (defined based on the urban–rural 2-m air temperature difference) is higher at night and during summertime. On the other hand, the daytime near-surface UHI is low but rarely exhibits an urban cool island. To evaluate the WRF Model’s ability to reproduce the diurnal cycle of near-surface meteorology and surface skin temperature, two WRF Model experiments (one using the Bougeault and Lacarrere turbulent scheme and one with the Mellor–Yamada–Janjić turbulent parameterization) at high spatial resolution (1-km horizontal grid spacing) are conducted for each 31-day period. Modeled results show that the WRF Model (coupled to the Noah-MP land surface model) tends to underestimate to some extent surface skin temperature during daytime and overestimate nighttime values during the wintertime period. In the same way, the WRF Model tends to accurately reproduce the diurnal cycle of near-surface air temperature, including maximum and minimum temperatures, and wind speed during summertime, but notably overestimates nighttime near-surface air temperature during wintertime. This nighttime overestimation is especially remarkable with the Bougeault and Lacarrere turbulent scheme for both urban and rural areas.


2007 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 210-244 ◽  
Author(s):  
W. J. Shuttleworth

Abstract. In the spirit of the Special Issue of HESS to which it contributes, this paper documents the origin and development of the science of natural evaporation from land surfaces over the last 30–35 years, since the symposium A View from the Watershed was held to commemorate the opening of the new Institute of Hydrology (IH) building in 1973. Important subsequent technical progress includes the ability to measure routinely the diurnal cycle of near-surface meteorological variables using automatic weather stations, and of surface energy and momentum exchanges using automated implementations of the Bowen Ratio/Energy Budget technique and the Eddy Correlation technique, along with the capability to estimate the "fetch" for which these measurements apply. These improvements have been complemented by new methods to measure the separate components of evaporation, including: the interception process using randomly relocated below-canopy gauges, transpiration fluxes from individual leaves/shoots using porometers and from plants/plant components using stem-flow gauges and soil evaporation using micro-lysimeters and soil moisture depletion methods. In recent years progress has been made in making theory-based area-average estimates of evaporation using scintillometers, and model-based area-average estimates by assembling many streams of relevant data into Land Data Assimilation Systems. Theoretical progress has been made in extending near-surface turbulence theory to accommodate the effect of the "excess" boundary layer resistance to leaf-to-air transfer of energy and mass fluxes relative to that for momentum, and to allow for observed shortcoming in stability factors in the transition layer immediately above vegetation. Controversy regarding the relative merits of multi-layer model and "big leaf" representations of whole-canopy exchanges has been resolved in favour of the latter approach. Important gaps in the theory of canopy-atmosphere interactions have been filled, including recognising the need, separately, to represent dry-canopy and wet-canopy evaporation in models and the capability to describe wet-to-dry canopy transitions as well as the ability to describe sparse vegetation canopies which only partly cover the underlying soil. There is progress in methods of estimating crop water requirements, but an important recommendation of this paper is that this progress should continue by introducing use of an effective stomatal resistance rather than crop factors. The paper draws attention to relevant theoretical insight on this issue. Progress in theoretical understanding of evaporation processes has been used in the creation of numerous Land Surface Parameterisations (LSPs), the models used to represent land-surface interaction in climate and weather forecast models, and there have been important advances in describing the behaviour of plant stomata in LSPs. A major investment over the last 25 years in conducting Large-Scale Field Experiments, the better to measure, understand and model coupled land-surface/atmosphere interactions, has resulted in improvements in the capabilities of global climate models and the ability of mesoscale meteorological models to describe the enhanced circulation resulting from different forms of land-surface heterogeneity. Progress in understanding why early equations for potential evapotranspiration can be adequate in certain conditions is reviewed. The paper concludes with recommendations for future research.


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