scholarly journals iCRESTRIGRS: a coupled modeling system for cascading flood–landslide disaster forecasting

2016 ◽  
Vol 20 (12) ◽  
pp. 5035-5048 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ke Zhang ◽  
Xianwu Xue ◽  
Yang Hong ◽  
Jonathan J. Gourley ◽  
Ning Lu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Slope Stability ◽  
Disaster Preparedness ◽  
Flash Flood ◽  
Significant Risk ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
True Positive Rate ◽  
Prototype Model ◽  
Coupled Modeling ◽  
Hazard Management ◽  
Hurricane Ivan

Abstract. Severe storm-triggered floods and landslides are two major natural hazards in the US, causing property losses of USD 6 billion and approximately 110–160 fatalities per year nationwide. Moreover, floods and landslides often occur in a cascading manner, posing significant risk and leading to losses that are significantly greater than the sum of the losses from the hazards when acting separately. It is pertinent to couple hydrological and geotechnical modeling processes to an integrated flood–landslide cascading disaster modeling system for improved disaster preparedness and hazard management. In this study, we developed the iCRESTRIGRS model, a coupled flash flood and landslide initiation modeling system, by integrating the Coupled Routing and Excess STorage (CREST) model with the physically based Transient Rainfall Infiltration and Grid-Based Regional Slope-Stability (TRIGRS) landslide model. The iCRESTRIGRS system is evaluated in four river basins in western North Carolina that experienced a large number of floods, landslides and debris flows triggered by heavy rainfall from Hurricane Ivan during 16–18 September 2004. The modeled hourly hydrographs at four USGS gauge stations show generally good agreement with the observations during the entire storm period. In terms of landslide prediction in this case study, the coupled model has a global accuracy of 98.9 % and a true positive rate of 56.4 %. More importantly, it shows an improved predictive capability for landslides relative to the stand-alone TRIGRS model. This study highlights the important physical connection between rainfall, hydrological processes and slope stability, and provides a useful prototype model system for operational forecasting of flood and landslide.

scholarly journals iCRESTRIGRS: A coupled modeling system for cascading flood-landslide disaster forecasting

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ke Zhang ◽  
Xianwu Xue ◽  
Yang Hong ◽  
Jonathan J. Gourley ◽  
Ning Lu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Slope Stability ◽  
Early Warning ◽  
Early Warning System ◽  
Flash Flood ◽  
Significant Risk ◽  
Warning System ◽  
Prototype System ◽  
Coupled Modeling ◽  
Hazard Management ◽  
Landslide Disaster

Abstract. Severe storm-triggered floods and landslides are two major natural hazards in the U.S., causing property losses of $6 billion and approximately 110–160 fatalities per year nationwide. Moreover, floods and landslides often occur in a cascading manner, posing significant risk and leading to losses that are significantly greater than the sum of the losses from the individual hazards. It is pertinent to couple hydrological and geotechnical modelling processes toward an integrated flood-landslide cascading disaster early warning system for improved disaster preparedness and hazard management. In this study, we developed the iCRESTRIGRS model, a coupled flash flood and landslide disaster early warning system, by integrating the Coupled Routing and Excess STorage (CREST) model with the physically based Transient Rainfall Infiltration and Grid-Based Regional Slope-Stability (TRIGRS) landslide model. The iCRESTRIGRS system is evaluated in four river basins in western North Carolina that experienced a large number of floods, landslides and debris flows, triggered by heavy rainfall from Hurricane Ivan during September 16–18, 2004. The modelled hourly hydrographs at four USGS gauge stations show generally good agreement with the observations during the entire storm period. In terms of landslide prediction in this case study, the coupled model has a global accuracy of 89.5 % and a true positive rate of 50.6 %. More importantly, it shows an improved predictive capability for landslides relative to the stand-alone TRIGRS model. This study highlights the important physical connection between rainfall, hydrological processes and slope stability, and provides a useful prototype system for operational forecasting of flood and landslide.

scholarly journals KESIAPAN WARGA SEKOLAH DALAM MENGHADAPI BENCANA BANJIR BANDANG DI SMA NEGERI 2 BOGOR

2019 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Chyndy Kasmila ◽  
Tirton Nefianto ◽  
L Lasmono
Keyword(s):  
Disaster Preparedness ◽  
Teaching And Learning ◽  
Flash Flood ◽  
Provincial Government ◽  
Preparedness Planning ◽  
Analysis Technique ◽  
Disaster Preparedness Planning ◽  
Knowledge And Attitude ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Research Analysis

Disaster preparedness in schools is still on the minimum level, whereas schools necessarily are the centers of teaching and learning activities to give proper education for the nation’s better future. The purpose of this research is to analyze the preparedness of SMAN 2 Bogor to face flash flood disaster, and to analyze the impact of its occurrence. This research uses qualitative method, and the locus is Sukaresmi Village, Tanah Sareal Sub-district, Bogor City, West Java. The data is obtained from predetermined informants and analyzed by qualitative analysis technique. The parameters used in the analysis are knowledge and attitude parameters, policies and guidelines, emergency response plans, disaster warning systems, also resource mobilization. The results show that disaster preparedness in SMAN 2 Bogor is held by using various resources of school residents and supporting facilities, yet it has not been maximally done to increase the capacity of students and other elements of SMAN 2 Bogor. In general, schools only focus on the academic achievement, which ultimately leads to the lack of sensitivity toward people’s welfare needs. Awareness of disaster preparedness should not be owned only by the students, but also by educators, officials, and all elements of the school. However, this research analysis focuses more on the students. The unawareness of disaster preparedness planning is the main factor which makes the socialization and capacity improvement can not be done sustainably. Co-ordination and consultation with Provincial Government and Regional Disaster Management Agency is the necessary thing to do for the disaster prepardness planning.

scholarly journals A New Coupled Modeling Approach to Simulate Terrestrial Water Storage in Southern California

Water ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 808 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fernando De Sales ◽  
David E. Rother
Keyword(s):  
Southern California ◽  
Water Storage ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Atmospheric Conditions ◽  
Terrestrial Water Storage ◽  
Aquifer Recharge ◽  
Coupled Modeling ◽  
Aquifer Systems ◽  
Terrestrial Water ◽  
Fully Coupled

The study introduces a new atmosphere-land-aquifer coupled model and evaluates terrestrial water storage (TWS) simulations for Southern California between 2007 and 2016. It also examines the relationship between precipitation, groundwater, and soil moisture anomalies for the two primary aquifer systems in the study area, namely the Coastal Basin and the Basin and Range aquifers. Two model designs are introduced, a partially-coupled model forced by reanalysis atmospheric data, and a fully-coupled model, in which the atmospheric conditions were simulated. Both models simulate the temporal variability of TWS anomaly in the study area well (R2 ≥ 0.87, P < 0.01). In general, the partially-coupled model outperformed the fully-coupled model as the latter overestimated precipitation, which compromised soil and aquifer recharge and discharge. Simulations also showed that the drought experienced in the area between 2012 and 2016 caused a decline in TWS, evapotranspiration, and runoff of approximately 24%, 65%, and 11%, and 20%, 72% and 8% over the two aquifer systems, respectively. Results indicate that the models first introduced in this study can be a useful tool to further our understanding of terrestrial water storage variability at regional scales.

Ocean–wave coupled modeling in COAMPS-TC: A study of Hurricane Ivan (2004)

2013 ◽  
Vol 69 ◽  
pp. 181-194 ◽  
Author(s):  
Travis A. Smith ◽  
Sue Chen ◽  
Timothy Campbell ◽  
Paul Martin ◽  
W. Erick Rogers ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Ocean Wave ◽  
Coupled Modeling ◽  
Hurricane Ivan

scholarly journals Investigating factors for disaster preparedness among residents of Kuala Lumpur

2014 ◽  
Vol 2 (5) ◽  
pp. 3683-3709 ◽  
Author(s):  
E. Mohammad-pajooh ◽  
K. Ab. Aziz
Keyword(s):  
Disaster Preparedness ◽  
Significant Contribution ◽  
Flash Flood ◽  
Kuala Lumpur ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
Correlation And Regression Analysis ◽  
Demographic Indicators ◽  
High Level ◽  
Social Demographic ◽  
Near Future

Abstract. The review of past researches discussed that factors such as climate change and movement toward urbanization will result in more frequent and severe disasters in the near future (Yasuhara et al., 2011). Flash flood is the most common type of disaster that residents of Kuala Lumpur (KL) come across, thus in this study, it was desired to discover the factors affecting preparedness among residents of KL as well as assessing the variation of individual preparedness among residents. With the aid of SPSS analysis, the reliability of data, correlation and regression analysis between the investigated factors and disaster preparedness were obtained. According to this research it was found that level of preparedness of residents of KL is still below average; majority of social demographic indicators such as income, education, age, and property ownership showed significant contribution to the variation of disaster preparedness among the residents. For instance men were much more prepared in comparison to women; residents with high level of income and education had also significantly higher preparedness compared to those with low level of income and education. Race was the only factor that differs from the findings of previous studies; since race does not affect the preparedness.

scholarly journals Cause and mechanism of the Seti River flood, 5th May 2012, western Nepal

2013 ◽  
Vol 46 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shreekamal Dwivedi ◽  
Yojana Neupane
Keyword(s):  
Disaster Preparedness ◽  
Flash Flood ◽  
Seismic Station ◽  
Source Area ◽  
Western Slope ◽  
The North ◽  
Outburst Floods ◽  
Hourly Rainfall ◽  
Inaccessible Area ◽  
The Impact

A catastrophic flash flood has occurred in the Seti River in the morning of May 5, 2012. An attempt has been made to find out the cause of the flood which originated form very remote inaccessible area lying in the Western slope of the Annapurna IV peak. Comparative Analysis of the Landsat ETM satellite images of 20th April, 2012 and 6th May, 2012 revealed that the area of about 32000 square meter of the southern ridge 1.5 kilometer away from the Annapurna IV peak failed in the north western direction. The impact of descending mass of the failed mountain from 6850 meters to 4500 meters almost vertically pulverized the ice, sediment and rock. The impact even triggered seismicity at 9:09.56 AM, local time which was recorded all over the 21 stations of National Seismological Centre. The closest seismic station at Dansing which is 32 km. south west from the area recorded the high signals for 70 minutes which corresponds to the duration of the debris flow. Lab analysis of the flood water sample revealed the density of the flow as 1.88 gm/cc. Analysis of the satellite based hourly rainfall GSMaP NRT from the period form 20th April-6th May 2012 revealed that there were just 4 occurrences of rainfall which amounted less than I mm/hour in the source area of the avalanche. The rainfall > 6mm/hour which occurred in the Kharapani area on 4 May was localized rainfall which did not extend to the avalanche area. Lack of systematic disaster preparedness caused huge loss of life and property even though the early warning message was received from the Ultralight pilot who was flying close to the area. The avalanche triggered high intensity floods which have similar characteristics to glacier lake outburst floods (GLOFs) have emerged as a new hazard in the Himalaya.

scholarly journals SURVEY OF FLOOD DISASTER PREPAREDNESS AMONG SCHOOL-AGE CHILDREN AT KEMIRI VILLAGE, PANTI DISTRICT, JEMBER

2017 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 17
Author(s):  
Latifa Aini Susumaningrum ◽  
Yerry Pristiwandono
Keyword(s):  
Natural Disaster ◽  
Disaster Preparedness ◽  
Flash Flood ◽  
Univariate Analysis ◽  
Simple Random Sampling ◽  
Active Role ◽  
Study Data ◽  
Flood Disaster ◽  
School Age Children ◽  
School Age

School-age children as one of population play an important role in flood natural disaster preparedness. The occurrence of flood natural disaster in Kemiri village of Panti gave both material and immaterial impacts. Flood natural disaster preparedness that can be carried out independently by the community can help empower the community independently or jointly reduce its impact. This research was a descriptive explorative research that aimed to determine the ability of school-age children about preparing themselves in the preparedness of natural flood disasters. The sample was taken by simple random sampling with 75 school age children participated in this study. Data were collected by using flood disaster preparedness questionnaire and analyzed with univariate analysis in percentage form. The results obtained that school-age children were still lacking in the 7 indicators of preparedness toward natural flash flood disaster. It was shown from each indicator that majority of children still do not have the ability toward flood natural disaster preparedness. School-age children as part of a community need to get a disaster preparedness skill that will help them take an active role in the communinity including at home and school.

Integrated Coupled Modelling Study to Assess CO2 Sequestration Potential in a Depleted Gas Field

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ahmad Ismail Azahree ◽  
Farhana Jaafar Azuddin ◽  
Siti Syareena Mohd Ali ◽  
Muhammad Hamzi Yakup ◽  
Mohd Azlan Mustafa ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Storage Capacity ◽  
Co2 Storage ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Co2 Injection ◽  
Storage Site ◽  
Coupled Modeling ◽  
Reservoir Properties ◽  
Gas Field ◽  
Sequestration Potential ◽  
Injection Phase

Abstract A depleted gas field is selected as CO2 storage site for future high CO2 content gas field development in Malaysia. The reservoir selected is a carbonate buildup of middle to late Miocene age. This paper describes an integrated modeling approach to evaluate CO2 sequestration potential in depleted carbonate gas reservoir. Integrated dynamic-geochemical and dynamic-geomechanics coupled modeling is required to properly address the risks and uncertainties such as, effect of compaction and subsidence during post-production and injection. The main subsurface uncertainties for assessing the CO2 storage potential are (i) CO2 storage capacity due to higher abandonment pressure (ii) CO2 containment due to geomechanical risks (iii) change in reservoir properties due to reaction of reservoir rock with injected CO2. These uncertainties have been addressed by first building the compositional dynamic model adequately history matched to the production data, and then coupling with geomechanical model and geochemical module during the CO2 injection phase. This is to further study on the trapping mechanisms, caprock integrity, compaction-subsidence implication towards maximum storage capacity and injectivity. The initial standalone dynamic modeling poses few challenges to match the water production in the field due to presence of karsts, extent of a baffle zone between the aquifer and producing zones and uncertainty in the aquifer volume. The overall depletion should be matched, since the field abandonment pressure impacts the CO2 injectivity and storage capacity. A reasonably history matched coupled dynamic-geomechanical model is used as base case for simulating CO2 injection. The dynamic-geomechanical coupling is done with 8 stress steps based on critical pressure changes throughout production and CO2 injection phase. Overburden and reservoir properties has been mapped in Geomechanical grid and was run using two difference constitutive model; Mohr's Coulomb and Modified Cam Clay respectively. The results are then calibrated with real subsidence measurement at platform location. This coupled model has been used to predict the maximum CO2 injection rate of 100 MMscf/d/well and a storage capacity of 1.34 Tscf. The model allows to best design the injection program in terms of well location, target injection zone and surface facilities design. This coupled modeling study is used to mature the field as a viable storage site. The established workflow starting from static model to coupled model to forecasting can be replicated in other similar projects to ensure the subsurface robustness, reduce uncertainty and risk mitigation of the field for CO2 storage site.

scholarly journals Evaluation of Risk Factors forClostridium difficileInfection Based on Immunochromatography Testing and Toxigenic Culture Assay

2018 ◽  
Vol 56 (12) ◽  
Author(s):  
Toshio Ohshima ◽  
Takako Osaki ◽  
Yukari Yamamoto ◽  
Satomi Asai ◽  
Hayato Miyachi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Significant Risk ◽  
Significant Risk Factor ◽  
True Positive Rate ◽  
Toxin Detection ◽  
Fecal Samples ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Test Kit ◽  
Toxigenic Culture ◽  
Positive Rate

ABSTRACTIn recent years, the diagnostic method of choice forClostridium difficileinfection (CDI) is a rapid enzyme immunoassay in which glutamate dehydrogenase (GDH) antigen andC. difficiletoxin can be detected (C. diffQuik Chek Complete; Alere Inc.) (Quik Chek). However, the clinical significance remains unclear in cases that demonstrate a positive result for GDH antigen and are negative for toxin. In this study, we used the Quik Chek test kit on fecal samples, with an additional toxin detection step using a toxigenic culture assay for the aforementioned cases. CDI risk factors were assessed among the 3 groups divided by the Quik Chek test results. The study involved 1,565 fecal samples from patients suspected to have CDI who were hospitalized during the period of April 2012 to March 2014. The 3 groups were defined as follows: both GDH antigen positive and toxin positive (by Quik Chek test) (toxin-positive [TP] group,n= 109), both GDH antigen and toxin negative (toxin-negative [TN] group,n= 111), and positive only for GDH antigen but toxin positive with subsequent toxigenic culture (toxigenic culture [TC] group,n= 72). The gender, age, number of hospitalization days, white blood cell (WBC) counts, serum albumin levels, body mass index (BMI), fecal consistency, and use of antibacterials and proton pump inhibiters (PPIs) were analyzed. The positive rate for the fecal direct Quik Chek test was 7.0% (109/1,565 cases). However, toxigenic culture assays using the Quik Chek test for only the GDH-antigen-positive/toxin-negative samples were 35.3% positive (72/204 cases). As a result, the true positive rate forC. difficiletoxin detection was estimated to be 11.6% (181/1,565 cases). Moreover, significant differences (P< 0.05) in the number of hospitalization days (>50 days), WBC counts (>10,000 WBCs/μl), and use of PPIs comparing the TN, TP, and TC groups, were observed. The odds ratios (ORs) for the development of CDI were 1.61 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.94 to 2.74) and 2.98 (95% CI, 1.59 to 5.58) for numbers of hospitalization days, 2.16 (95% CI, 1.24 to 3.75) and 2.24 (95% CI, 1.21 to 4.14) for WBC counts, and 9.03 (95% CI, 4.9 to 16.6) and 9.15 (95% CI, 4.59 to 18.2) for use of PPIs in the TP and TC groups, respectively. These findings demonstrated that the use of PPIs was a significant risk factor for CDI development. Moreover, antibacterials such as carbapenems, cephalosporins, and fluoroquinolones were demonstrated to be risk factors. In conclusion, identification of the TC group of patients is thought to be important, as this study demonstrates that this group bears the same high risk of developing CDI as the TP group.

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