scholarly journals Economic Growth and Demographic Dividend Nexus in Nigeria: A Vector Autoregressive (VAR) Approach

2019 ◽  
Vol 15 (2) ◽  
pp. 37 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ademola Obafemi Young
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Labour Force ◽  
Demographic Dividend ◽  
Dynamic Interactions ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
Economic Support ◽  
Beneficial Impact ◽  
Working Age ◽  
Support Ratio ◽  
Macroeconomic Implications

In demography and population economics discourse, the macroeconomic implications of an upsurge in working age population, notably the labour force, on economic growth has been widely studied and the inherent beneficial impact has become known as demographic dividend. However, the exact mechanism linking the dividend to growth remains a perennial question. This motivates the current study to investigate empirically the dividend-growth nexus in the context of Nigerian economy in a multivariate VAR model spanning between the period 1970 and 2017. Specifically, the paper attempted to answer the question: Is the Nigerian Demographic Dividend an Education-triggered Dividend? Innovation Accounting Techniques was applied to assess the dynamic interactions among the variables. The empirical evidence obtained revealed that the innovation in gross enrollment made much contribution to the variation in economic growth relative to innovation in economic support ratio. The magnitude ranges between 20.09 and 27.54 percent. This result, thus, lend credence to the theoretical view of the education-triggered dividend model which ascribes to education twofold roles of helping to lessen fertility and also enhancing productivity but invalidates the conventional dividend paradigm.

scholarly journals The effect of education on the demographic dividend: an analysis of the Brazilian case

2020 ◽  
Vol 37 ◽  
pp. 1-15
Author(s):  
Bruno Guimarães de Melo ◽  
Eduardo Rios-Neto
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Demographic Transition ◽  
Educational Expansion ◽  
Dependency Ratio ◽  
Post Secondary Education ◽  
Demographic Dividend ◽  
Post Secondary ◽  
Economic Support ◽  
Support Ratio ◽  
Brazilian Case

The demographic dividend has aroused interest among demographers and economists because it is seen as a window of oportunity for the economic development of countries that have experienced a demographic transition. There are reasons to question the sole virtuosity of the pure demographic dividend in economic growth. Crespo-Cuaresma et al. (2014) found that educational expansion has an important role in economic gains during the demographic dividend. To verify these results for the Brazilian case, we performed a decomposition exercise of economic support ratio (ESR), an alternative to demographic dependency ratio, to analyze the first demographic dividend. A simulation, applied for the period from 1970 to 2100 considering three scenarios of educational expansion, shows that educational expansion was and will be responsible for a big share of the economic gains of the Brazilian demographic dividend period, outperforming the change in age structure effect. In addition, an increase in a work-age population with post-secondary education appears to potentialize these results.

scholarly journals Education rather than age structure brings demographic dividend

2019 ◽  
Vol 116 (26) ◽  
pp. 12798-12803 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wolfgang Lutz ◽  
Jesus Crespo Cuaresma ◽  
Endale Kebede ◽  
Alexia Prskawetz ◽  
Warren C. Sanderson ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Human Capital ◽  
Age Structure ◽  
Fertility Decline ◽  
Demographic Dividend ◽  
Resource Base ◽  
Population Policies ◽  
Dependency Ratios ◽  
Working Age ◽  
Negative Impacts

The relationship between population changes and economic growth has been debated since Malthus. Initially focusing on population growth, the notion of demographic dividend has shifted the attention to changes in age structures with an assumed window of opportunity that opens when falling birth rates lead to a relatively higher proportion of the working-age population. This has become the dominant paradigm in the field of population and development, and an advocacy tool for highlighting the benefits of family planning and fertility decline. While this view acknowledges that the dividend can only be realized if associated with investments in human capital, its causal trigger is still seen in exogenous fertility decline. In contrast, unified growth theory has established human capital as a trigger of both demographic transition and economic growth. We assess the relative importance of changing age structure and increasing human capital for economic growth for a panel of 165 countries during the time period of 1980–2015. The results show a clear dominance of improving education over age structure and give evidence that the demographic dividend is driven by human capital. Declining youth dependency ratios even show negative impacts on income growth when combined with low education. Based on a multidimensional understanding of demography that considers education in addition to age, and with a view to the additional effects of education on health and general resilience, we conclude that the true demographic dividend is a human capital dividend. Global population policies should thus focus on strengthening the human resource base for sustainable development.

scholarly journals Demographic Window of Opportunity in Nepal

2018 ◽  
Vol 18 (17) ◽  
pp. 133-140 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hom Nath Chalise
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
National Development ◽  
Window Of Opportunity ◽  
Age Group ◽  
Demographic Dividend ◽  
Working Age ◽  
Age Structures

The demographic dividend (or window of opportunity) is the period during which a country's population experiences age structures that are highly favourable for development. Greater proportion of population becomes young and working age group. This cuts spending on dependents and spurring economic growth. Demographic dividend has importance in the national development if it is understood well and planned well for the national development. Nepal has already entered in demographic window of opportunity and this dividend phase ends around 2045. Government is lacking to utilize this dividend in the absence of stable government and proper policy requirements.

Population Composition and Its Effect on Economic Growth

2021 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 86-100
Author(s):  
Deboshmita Brahma
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Negative Relationship ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Ideal Condition ◽  
Demographic Dividend ◽  
Third Phase ◽  
Significant Negative Relationship ◽  
Working Age ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
The Government

Background: The relationship between population and economic growth has always been a subject of debate. There has never been any clear consensus amongst economists about the nature and extent of influence that population has on the economic growth of a country. Objective: This paper aims to explore the influence exerted by the age structure of the population on the economic growth of a country. Method: The paper uses secondary data to find the relation between Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita levels of countries and their respective Age Dependency Ratio.Result: There is a significant negative relationship between them, which implies that, if a country has a rise in a high proportion of the dependent population, per capita income will tend to be lower. Conclusion: The paper then makes a special study of the prospect of demographic dividend in India. The country is in the third phase of demographic transition, implying that the proportion of the working-age population is greater than the dependent population. This provides an ideal condition for the Government to reap the benefits of demographic dividend and achieve higher levels of economic growth.

scholarly journals Integration of the Demographic Dividend into Government Plans: A Case of the Kwazulu-Natal Province of South Africa

2021 ◽  
Vol 1 (2) ◽  
pp. 88-102
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
South Africa ◽  
Age Structure ◽  
Economic Policies ◽  
Demographic Dividend ◽  
Rapid Economic Growth ◽  
Kwazulu Natal ◽  
Working Age ◽  
Population Reference Bureau ◽  
The Right

The Population reference Bureau policy brief, (Gribble and Bremmer, 2012):1) described the demographic dividend as “…the accelerated economic growth that may result from a decline in a country’s mortality and fertility and the subsequent change in the age structure of the population. With fewer births each year, a country’s young dependent population grows smaller in relation to the working-age population. With fewer people to support, a country has a window of opportunity for rapid economic growth if the right social and economic policies developed and investments made”. Several South Africa based studies have explored age structure and the prospects of a demographic dividend. These studies range from those that explore timing of the dividend to those that investigate readiness to harness the dividend. Three aspects of the demographic dividend are investigated by this research. Firstly, the paper will explore the age structure of KwaZulu-Natal population to ascertain the timing of the age-structure (youth bulge) that is a pre-requisite for the dividend. Secondly, demographic, health and education characteristics that are knows to affect the achievement of the dividend will be examined. Lastly, the extent of integration of the demographic dividend into Integrated Development Plans (IDPs) in the province will be explored.

scholarly journals Impact of the demographic dividend on economic growth

2018 ◽  
Vol 2 (4) ◽  
pp. 85-135
Author(s):  
Zarina Kazbekova
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Russian Federation ◽  
Population Decline ◽  
Gdp Per Capita ◽  
Demographic Dividend ◽  
Working Age ◽  
Real Gdp Per Capita ◽  
The Russian Federation ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
Working Age Population

In the context of the working-age population decline in the Russian Federation, the study of the influence of the dynamics of the share of the working -age population on economic growth is of particular interest. The main purpose of the article is to assess the contribution of the first demographic dividend to the GDP per capita growth rate in Russia betwеen 1997 and 2015. The main methods used by the author of this work are statistical analysis and econometric modeling based on Rosstat data. According to the results obtained in the course of this study, the first demographic dividend provided about 13% growth of real GDP per capita in the Russian Federation in 1997-2015. It has been proved that the age structure of the population is important.

Some Factors in Growth Reconsidered by Robert Eisner, (Lecture Series No. 21). Athens: Center of Planning and Economic Research, 1966. pp.63.

1967 ◽  
Vol 7 (4) ◽  
pp. 547-547
Author(s):  
Gunnar Floystad
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Simple Model ◽  
Labour Force ◽  
Economic Research ◽  
Positive Relation ◽  
Employment Level ◽  
Rate Of Growth ◽  
Lecture Series ◽  
Sustained Rate

Eisner's book contains two lectures which were read at the Center of Planning and Economic Research in Athens. In his first lecture the author raises the question: does a higher level of employment contribute to a more rapid, sustained rate of economic growth? A number of economists, including P.A. Samuelson, A.W. Philips and Harry Johnson, have argued that the positive relation between employment and growth is a transitory phenomenon which occurs only when the employment level changes. By using a simple model of the Harrod-Domar type he shows that the higher the level of employment or, more exactly, the higher the proportion of the labour force employed the greater will be the percentage rate of growth of output.

Has the Internet increased FDI, economic growth, and trade? Evidence from Asian economies

2021 ◽  
pp. 026666692199974
Author(s):  
Zi Hui Yin ◽  
Chang Hwan Choi
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
East Asia ◽  
South Asia ◽  
Internet Use ◽  
The Internet ◽  
Economic Factors ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
Western Asia ◽  
Asian Economies ◽  
Transaction Efficiency

This study examines the causal relationship between the Internet and economic factors in Asian economies between 1997 and 2017. The economic factors consist of gross domestic product (GDP), foreign direct investment (FDI), imports, and exports. A comparative analysis of East, South, and Western Asia was conducted using a panel vector autoregressive model. The findings show bidirectional causality between FDI and Internet use in South Asia, unidirectional causality from Internet use to FDI in East Asia, and unidirectional causality from FDI to Internet use in Western Asia. Moreover, the findings indicate unidirectional causality from exports to Internet use in East Asia and unidirectional causality from Internet use to exports in South Asia, but no impact in Western Asia. Finally, the results show unidirectional causality from Internet use to GDP in Western Asia. As these results suggest that Internet use has boosted economic performance in Asia, policy makers in the region should improve Internet use with a focus on economic growth, improving transaction efficiency, and facilitating foreign investment.

scholarly journals Revisiting the dynamic interactions between economic growth and environmental pollution in Italy: evidence from a gradient descent algorithm

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marco Mele ◽  
Cosimo Magazzino ◽  
Nicolas Schneider ◽  
Floriana Nicolai
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Gradient Descent ◽  
Statistical Data ◽  
Stochastic Gradient Descent ◽  
Policy Recommendations ◽  
Dynamic Interactions ◽  
Gradient Descent Algorithm ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Main Strand ◽  
Yearly Data

AbstractAlthough the literature on the relationship between economic growth and CO2 emissions is extensive, the use of machine learning (ML) tools remains seminal. In this paper, we assess this nexus for Italy using innovative algorithms, with yearly data for the 1960–2017 period. We develop three distinct models: the batch gradient descent (BGD), the stochastic gradient descent (SGD), and the multilayer perceptron (MLP). Despite the phase of low Italian economic growth, results reveal that CO2 emissions increased in the predicting model. Compared to the observed statistical data, the algorithm shows a correlation between low growth and higher CO2 increase, which contradicts the main strand of literature. Based on this outcome, adequate policy recommendations are provided.

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