The impact of climate change on the corn yield in Serbia

The aim of the paper is to show the impact of climate factors on the corn yield in Serbia. Contemporary climate reports show that climate is changing, and the emission of greenhouse gases is one of the main causes of climate change. In three different locations (West Bačka District, Šumadija District and Nišava District) different climatic conditions and corn yield were analyzed for the period from 1991 to 2011. In the research process, the model of multiple linear regression and Pearson coefficient of correlation was applied. Obtained results has shown that there is a high correlation between parameters of climate conditions and variance of corn yield. A small amount of precipitation quantity and high maximum values of temperatures in the vegetation period influenced the decrease in yield, which was particularly noticed during the period from 2000 to 2007. A lower yield of corn was established compared to the average yield in all three observed districts, in the Šumadija district, the yield was lower 48% in 2000 and 52% in 2007, in the West Bačka District, a yield was lower 40% in 2000 and 20% in 2007, and in the Nišava District, the yield was lower 65% in 2000 and 49% in 2007. There are perennial variations of climatic factors, especially temperature and precipitation quantity, which affect the realization of the economic profitability of growing agricultural plant species. Losses in agriculture can be higher in conditions of an unstable climate. It is necessary to more precisely predict climate change and create new hybrids and varieties for cultivation that will be adaptable to changed climate conditions. Adaptations of plants to climatic conditions changes will contribute to greater economy of agricultural production, and the provision of food for the world's population.

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Growth and reproductive characteristics of C4 weeds under climatic conditions of the Czech Republic

Plant Soil and Environment ◽

10.17221/77/2013-pse ◽

2013 ◽

Vol 59 (No. 7) ◽

pp. 309-315 ◽

Cited By ~ 4

Author(s):

J. Satrapová ◽

T. Hyvönen ◽

V. Venclová ◽

J. Soukup

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Czech Republic ◽

Climatic Factors ◽

Climatic Conditions ◽

Amaranthus Retroflexus ◽

Seed Number ◽

Weed Species ◽

The Czech Republic ◽

Climate Conditions ◽

The Impact

Climate change could promote the altitudinal spread of C4 weed species since they can benefit from warmer climate. The effects of altitude and climatic conditions (the sum of temperatures above 5°C and precipitation) on the biomass and seed production of two annual C4 weeds – Amaranthus retroflexus L. and Echinochloa crus-galli (L.) P. Beauv. – were studied in the Czech Republic. We included both temperature and precipitation variables in the study since they both serve as basic indicators of climate change and thus they have the greatest impact on plant development. The experiment was carried out by sowing both weed species on m2 area with four replicates in seven localities differing in altitude in 2010 and 2011. We found no significant impacts due to altitude on any variables measured. However, climatic factors explained 44.5% of the variation in plant dry biomass and 41.4% of the seed number produced by A. retroflexus. The same variables did not significantly contribute to the variation in above-ground biomass or seed number of E. crus-galli. These results show the impact of climate conditions to vary between species and not to limit reproduction at high altitudes.

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The impact of climate change on cocoa production in West Africa

International Journal of Climate Change Strategies and Management ◽

10.1108/ijccsm-01-2013-0007 ◽

2014 ◽

Vol 6 (3) ◽

pp. 296-314 ◽

Cited By ~ 3

Author(s):

Kenneth Ofori-Boateng ◽

Baba Insah

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

West Africa ◽

Climatic Factors ◽

Extreme Temperature ◽

Yield Response ◽

Content Type ◽

Impact Of Climate Change ◽

Temperature And Precipitation ◽

Cocoa Production ◽

The Impact

Purpose – The study aimed at examining the current and future impact of climate change on cocoa production in West Africa. Design/methodology/approach – A translog production function based on crop yield response framework was used. A panel model was estimated using data drawn from cocoa-producing countries in West Africa. An in-sample simulation was used to determine the predictive power of the model. In addition, an out-sample simulation revealed the effect of future trends of temperature and precipitation on cocoa output. Findings – Temperature and precipitation play a considerable role in cocoa production in West Africa. It was established that extreme temperature adversely affected cocoa output in the sub-region. Furthermore, increasing temperature and declining precipitation trends will reduce cocoa output in the future. Practical implications – An important implication of this study is the recognition that lagging effects are the determinants of cocoa output and not coincident effects. This finds support from the agronomic point of view considering the gestation period of the cocoa crop. Originality/value – Although several studies have been carried out in this area, this study modeled and estimated the interacting effects of factors that influence cocoa production. This is closer to reality, as climatic factors and agricultural inputs combine to yield output.

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Locomotion of Slope Geohazards Responding to Climate Change in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau and Its Adjacent Regions

Sustainability ◽

10.3390/su131910488 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 13 (19) ◽

pp. 10488

Author(s):

Yiru Jia ◽

Jifu Liu ◽

Lanlan Guo ◽

Zhifei Deng ◽

Jiaoyang Li ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Climatic Factors ◽

High Sensitivity ◽

Spatial Location ◽

Future Climate ◽

Tibet Plateau ◽

The South ◽

Climate Conditions ◽

Temperature And Precipitation ◽

Qinghai Tibet Plateau

Slope geohazards, which cause significant social, economic and environmental losses, have been increasing worldwide over the last few decades. Climate change-induced higher temperatures and shifted precipitation patterns enhance the slope geohazard risks. This study traced the spatial transference of slope geohazards in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP) and investigated the potential climatic factors. The results show that 93% of slope geohazards occurred in seasonally frozen regions, 2.6% of which were located in permafrost regions, with an average altitude of 3818 m. The slope geohazards are mainly concentrated at 1493–1988 m. Over time, the altitude of the slope geohazards was gradually increased, and the mean altitude tended to spread from 1984 m to 2562 m by 2009, while the slope gradient varied only slightly. The number of slope geohazards increased with time and was most obvious in spring, especially in the areas above an altitude of 3000 m. The increase in temperature and precipitation in spring may be an important reason for this phenomenon, because the results suggest that the rate of air warming and precipitation at geohazard sites increased gradually. Based on the observation of the spatial location, altitude and temperature growth rate of slope geohazards, it is noted that new geohazard clusters (NGCs) appear in the study area, and there is still a possibility of migration under the future climate conditions. Based on future climate forecast data, we estimate that the low-, moderate- and high-sensitivity areas of the QTP will be mainly south of 30° N in 2030, will extend to the south of 33° N in 2060 and will continue to expand to the south of 35° N in 2099; we also estimate that the proportion of high-sensitivity areas will increase from 10.93% in 2030 to 14.17% in 2060 and 17.48% in 2099.

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SWAT BASED ASSESSMENT AND PREDICTION OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND ITS IMPACT IN THENPENNAI SUB-BASIN OF SOUTH INDIA

ISPRS - International Archives of the Photogrammetry, Remote Sensing and Spatial Information Sciences ◽

10.5194/isprs-archives-xlii-5-557-2018 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol XLII-5 ◽

pp. 557-562

Author(s):

K. Nivedita Priyadarshini ◽

S. A. Rahaman ◽

S. Nithesh Nirmal ◽

R. Jegankumar ◽

P. Masilamani

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Assessment Tool ◽

Climate Change Impacts ◽

Climatic Conditions ◽

Scale Model ◽

Impact Of Climate Change ◽

Temperature And Precipitation ◽

The Government ◽

The Impact ◽

Soil And Water

Abstract. Climate change impacts on watershed ecosystems and hydrologic processes are complex. The key significant parameters responsible for balancing the watershed ecosystems are temperature and rainfall. Though these parameters are uncertain, they play a prime role in the projections of dimensional climate change studies. The impact of climate change is more dependent on temperature and precipitation which contributes at a larger magnitude for characterising global warming issues. This paper aims to forecast the variations of temperature and precipitation during the period of 2020&ndash;2050 for the northern part of Thenpennar sub basin. This study is modelled using SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) &ndash; a scale model developed to predict the impact of changes that occurs in land, soil and water over a period of time. This study is validated using the base period from 1980&ndash;2000 which shows the distribution of rainfall and temperature among 38 watersheds. The results from this study show that there is a decrease in the rainfall for a maximum of about 20% in the month of December during the predicted period of 2020 and 2050. This study assesses the possible adverse impact of climate change on temperature and precipitation of Thenpennai sub-basin. This kind of predictions will help the government agencies, rulers and decision makers in policy making and implementing the adaptation strategies for the changing climatic conditions.

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Land-surface feedbacks on temperature and precipitation in CMIP6-LS3MIP projections

10.5194/egusphere-egu21-12175 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Franco Catalano ◽

Andrea Alessandri ◽

Wilhelm May ◽

Thomas Reerink

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Soil Moisture ◽

Land Surface ◽

Hydrological Cycle ◽

Climate Change Signal ◽

Moisture Change ◽

Climate Conditions ◽

Temperature And Precipitation ◽

Systematic Biases ◽

The Impact

The Land Surface, Snow and Soil Moisture Model Intercomparison Project (LS3MIP) aims at diagnosing systematic biases in the land models of CMIP6 Earth System Models and assessing the role of land-atmosphere feedbacks on climate change. Two components of experiments have been designed: the first is devoted to the assessment of the systematic land biases in offline mode (LMIP) while the second component is dedicated to the analysis of the land feedbacks in coupled mode (LFMIP). Here we focus on the LFMIP experiments. In the LFMIP protocol (van den Hurk et al. 2016), which builds upon the GLACE-CMIP configuration, two sets of climate-sensitivity projections have been carried out in amip mode: in the first set (amip-lfmip-pdLC) the land feedbacks to climate change have been disabled by prescribing the soil-moisture states from a climatology derived from &#8220;present climate conditions&#8221; (1980-2014) while in the second set (amip-lfmip-rmLC) 30-year running mean of land-surface state from the corresponding ScenarioMIP experiment (O&#8217;Neill et al., 2016) is prescribed. The two sensitivity simulations span the period 1980-2100 with sea surface temperature and sea-ice conditions prescribed from the first member of historical and ScenarioMIP experiments. Two different scenarios are considered: SSP1-2.6 (f1) and SSP5-8.5 (f2).In this analysis, we focus on the differences between amip-lfmip-rmLC and amip-lfmip-pdLC at the end of the 21st Century (2071&#8211;2100) in order to isolate the impact of the soil moisture changes on surface climate change. The (2071-2100) minus (1985-2014) temperature change is positive everywhere over land and the climate change signal of precipitation displays a clear intensification of the hydrological cycle in the Northern Hemisphere. Warming and hydrological cycle intensification are larger in SSP5-8.5 scenario. Results show large differences in the feedbacks between wet, transition and semi-arid climates. In particular, over the regions with negative soil moisture change, the 2m-temperature increases significantly while the cooling signal is not significant over all the regions getting wetter. In agreement with Catalano et al. (2016), the larger effects on precipitation due to soil moisture forcing occur mostly over transition zones between dry and wet climates, where evaporation is highly sensitive to soil moisture. The sensitivity of both 2m-temperature and precipitation to soil moisture change is much stronger in the SSP5-8.5 scenario.

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One-third of global food production at risk for unprecedented climate conditions due to climate change

10.5194/egusphere-egu21-11923 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Matti Kummu ◽

Matias Heino ◽

Maija Taka ◽

Olli Varis ◽

Daniel Viviroli

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

At Risk ◽

Food Production ◽

Crop Production ◽

Climatic Factors ◽

Livestock Production ◽

Climatic Conditions ◽

Planetary Boundaries ◽

Climate Conditions ◽

Global Food

The majority of food production is based on agricultural practices developed for the stable Holocene climatic conditions, which now are under risk for rapid change due to climate change. Although various studies have assessed the potential changes in climatic conditions and their projected impacts on yields globally, there is no clear understanding on the climatic niche of the current food production. Nor, which areas are under risk of falling outside this niche.In this study we aim first at defining the novel concept Safe Climatic Space (SCS) by using a combination of three key climatic parameters. SCS is defined here as the climate conditions to which current food production systems (here crop production and livestock production separately) are accustomed to, an analogue to Safe Operating Space (SOS) concepts such as Planetary Boundaries and human climate niche. We use a combination of selected key climatic factors to define the SCS through the Holdridge Life Zone (HLZ) concept. It allows us to first define the SCS based on three climatic factors (annual precipitation, biotemperature and aridity) and to identify which food production areas would stay within it under changed future climate conditions.&#160;We show that a rapid and unhalted growth of GHG emissions (SSP5-8.5) could force 31% (25-37% with 5th-95th percentile confidence interval) of global food crop production and 34% (26-43%) of livestock production beyond the SCS by 2081-2100. Our results underpin the importance of committing to a low emission scenario (SSP1-2.6), whereupon the extent of food production facing unprecedented conditions would be a fraction: 8% (4-10%) for crop production and 4% (2-8%) for livestock production. The most vulnerable areas are the ones at risk of leaving SCS with low resilience to cope with the change, particularly South and Southeast Asia and Africa&#8217;s Sudano-Sahelian Zone.&#160;Our findings reinforce the existing research in suggesting that climate change forces humanity into a new era of reduced validity of past experiences and dramatically increased uncertainties. Future solutions should be concentrated on actions that would both mitigate climate change as well as increase resilience in food systems and societies, increase the food production sustainability that respects key planetary boundaries, adapt to climate change by, for example, crop migration and foster local livelihoods especially in the most critical areas.

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Calculating groundwater stress and climate change-induced vulnerability of karst aquifers on a global scale

10.5194/egusphere-egu21-929 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Philipp Nußbaum ◽

Márk Somogyvári ◽

Christopher Conrad ◽

Martin Sauter ◽

Irina Engelhardt

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Water Stress ◽

Climatic Factors ◽

Karst Aquifer ◽

Global Scale ◽

Stress Index ◽

Karst Aquifers ◽

Climate Zones ◽

Climate Conditions ◽

Temperature And Precipitation

Approximately 10% of the global population rely on groundwater from karst aquifers. Due to complex karst structures, these aquifers have high infiltration capacities and hydraulic conductivities, which makes them vulnerable to pollution and, as prediction and management are complicated, overexploitation. As populations are growing and demand rises, we assess the current level of groundwater stress in karst aquifers with Mediterranean climates and their vulnerability (defined as the change in groundwater stress) to expected changes in temperature and precipitation on the global scale.Our approach is based on a Groundwater Stress Index (GSI), which is calculated for 356 karst aquifers (as identified in the World Karst Aquifer Map) that have some of their area located in Mediterranean climate zones (Csa, Csb, and Csc after K&#246;ppen/Geiger). GSI are calculated from seven indicators: groundwater recharge, storage, and abstractions, surface runoff, climatic water balance, water-intensity of crops, and groundwater-dependent ecosystems. Each indicator is spatially and temporally averaged to describe a recent trend on aquifer level, resulting in one complex attribute table for the 356 aquifers. GSI is calculated as the average of the normalized indicators for each aquifer, ranging from 0 (no water stress) to 1 (extreme water stress).Aquifers are then grouped based on similarities in two classification parameters &#8211; degree of karstification (P1) and land cover (P2). Comparison of aquifers with similar classification parameters allows to focus more directly on the relationship between groundwater stress and climate, disregarding relatively constant influences. For each group (e.g., well-developed karst, primarily agriculturally used), we plot calculated GSI values with current temperature and precipitation data. By investigating four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) until 2100, we identify aquifers that mimic future climate conditions for others with similar P1 and P2. We then measure the difference in groundwater stress accompanied by altered climatic factors. This change is interpreted as vulnerability to climate change.This approach, which relies on present-day observed conditions, allows us to predict the effect of a changing climate without the need to develop a complex numerical model, which requires large amounts of data and functional understanding of aquifer behavior. While analysis is currently ongoing, we expect both groundwater stress and vulnerabilities to be high. Predicted climate zone shifts by Beck et al. (2018) indicate that, out of 356 karst aquifers with Mediterranean climates, 52 could move to more extreme arid climate zones by 2100.Results will be visualized in the form of vulnerability maps that may serve as an &#8220;early-warning system&#8221;. For particularly threatened aquifers, we will derive recommendations for more sustainable management by suggesting strategies to lower groundwater stress. This is done by taking a closer look at the aquifer&#8217;s indicator values and identifying factors that currently contribute the most to groundwater stress.

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The Influence of Climate Change on Oat Productivity in the Steppe Zone of Ukraine

Man and Environment. Issues of Neoecology ◽

10.26565/1992-4224-2020-34-04 ◽

2020 ◽

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Seedling Emergence ◽

Growing Season ◽

Vegetation Period ◽

Steppe Zone ◽

Climatic Conditions ◽

Photosynthetic Productivity ◽

Climatic Scenarios ◽

The Impact ◽

Yield Of Oats

Purpose. To assess the impact of climate change on oat productivity in the steppe zone of Ukraine. Methods. Statistical, mathematical modeling. Results. It is established that the seed sowing and of seedling emergence will be postponed to an earlier date. More favorable conditions are expected for the formation of seedling emergence, growth and development of plants during the period of "seedling - heading". Reduced background temperature will lead to a decrease in the value of total evaporation and a decrease in moisture demand by 47–58 mm. The moisture content of the first vegetation period will be significantly higher than in the middle perennial years. Agroclimatic conditions of the second half of the vegetation period of oats will develop at low temperatures and uneven moisture across the territory. The demand for moisture will increase everywhere by 12–28 mm. The supply of moisture will decrease. Using the model of the formation of the yield of agricultural crops, the influence of changes in the agro-climatic conditions of the growing season on the indicators of photosynthetic productivity of oat crops and the formation of the yield was assessed. Conclusions. It was concluded that a possible increase in the yield of oats in the Steppe zone of Ukraine under the implementation of climatic scenarios and early sowing terms. Changes in agroclimatic conditions in the implementation of climatic scenarios will lead to changes in the photosynthetic activity of oat crops: the relative leaf area will increase, the increase in total plant mass will increase, the photosynthetic potential of crops will grow during the growing season. Proposed cartographic schemes of the expected yield of oats in the Steppe zone of Ukraine.

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Evaluating sources of uncertainty in modelling the impact of probabilistic climate change on sub-arctic palsa mires

Natural Hazards and Earth System Science ◽

10.5194/nhess-11-2981-2011 ◽

2011 ◽

Vol 11 (11) ◽

pp. 2981-2995 ◽

Cited By ~ 23

Author(s):

S. Fronzek ◽

T. R. Carter ◽

M. Luoto

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Response Surfaces ◽

Impact Response ◽

Reliable Technique ◽

Entire Area ◽

Climate Conditions ◽

Northern Fennoscandia ◽

Temperature And Precipitation ◽

Modelling Techniques ◽

The Impact

Abstract. We present an analysis of different sources of impact model uncertainty and combine this with probabilistic projections of climate change. Climatic envelope models describing the spatial distribution of palsa mires (mire complexes with permafrost peat hummocks) in northern Fennoscandia were calibrated for three baseline periods, eight state-of-the-art modelling techniques and 25 versions sampling the parameter uncertainty of each technique – a total of 600 models. The sensitivity of these models to changes in temperature and precipitation was analysed to construct impact response surfaces. These were used to assess the behaviour of models when extrapolated into changed climate conditions, so that new criteria, in addition to conventional model evaluation statistics, could be defined for determining model reliability. Impact response surfaces were also combined with climate change projections to estimate the risk of areas suitable for palsas disappearing during the 21st century. Structural differences in impact models appeared to be a major source of uncertainty, with 60% of the models giving implausible projections. Generalized additive modelling (GAM) was judged to be the most reliable technique for model extrapolation. Using GAM, it was estimated as very likely (>90% probability) that the area suitable for palsas is reduced to less than half the baseline area by the period 2030–2049 and as likely (>66% probability) that the entire area becomes unsuitable by 2080–2099 (A1B emission scenario). The risk of total loss of palsa area was reduced for a mitigation scenario under which global warming was constrained to below 2 °C relative to pre-industrial climate, although it too implied a considerable reduction in area suitable for palsas.

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Impact of Climate Change on Banana Based Cropping Pattern in District Thatta, Sindh Province of Pakistan

Journal of Economic Impact ◽

10.52223/jei0301215 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 2 (3) ◽

pp. 103-109

Author(s):

Ghulam Nabi Dahri ◽

Basit Ali Talpur ◽

Ghulam Mustafa Nangraj ◽

Tehmina Mangan ◽

Muhammad Hassan Channa ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Climatic Factors ◽

Climatic Conditions ◽

Cropping Pattern ◽

Cropping Patterns ◽

Impact Of Climate Change ◽

Sindh Province ◽

Change Effect ◽

Climate Change Effect ◽

The Impact

Pakistan is one of the most vulnerable countries in the world due to changing climatic conditions. While a head facing the risk of food and nutrition insecurity. It is a land of variety both in terms of resources and people. The study focused on the district Thatta and its coastal district of Sindh province, to determine the complex problem-related climate change and effects; the district has received due to various climatic factors. Banana is known to be the most important fruit crop of Pakistan. It is cultivated over 34,800 hectares with the production of 154,800 tons. It is primarily grown in Sindh province because the soil and climatic conditions favour cultivating fruits and vegetables, further, this province shares 87 percent in the cultivation of the banana crop. The study aims to carry out the impact of climate change effect on banana cropping patterns. The present study aimed to observe the socio-economic characteristics of the farmers, review the present status of banana production in Sindh province, explore the status of cropping pattern in the study area, and examine climate change effect on banana cropping pattern, by using primary as well as secondary data. In Sindh province, Banana is cultivated in three main districts among them, Thatta shares 17.6 percent in the area and 17.1 percent production in the overall province. Furthermore, farmer’s perception regarding climate change, the majority proportion of farmers agreed temperature has raised and cropping pattern practices also effected and changed, while water-related issues are rising day by day in the study area.

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