scholarly journals Locomotion of Slope Geohazards Responding to Climate Change in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau and Its Adjacent Regions

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (19) ◽  
pp. 10488
Author(s):  
Yiru Jia ◽  
Jifu Liu ◽  
Lanlan Guo ◽  
Zhifei Deng ◽  
Jiaoyang Li ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climatic Factors ◽  
High Sensitivity ◽  
Spatial Location ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Tibet Plateau ◽  
The South ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Qinghai Tibet Plateau

Slope geohazards, which cause significant social, economic and environmental losses, have been increasing worldwide over the last few decades. Climate change-induced higher temperatures and shifted precipitation patterns enhance the slope geohazard risks. This study traced the spatial transference of slope geohazards in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP) and investigated the potential climatic factors. The results show that 93% of slope geohazards occurred in seasonally frozen regions, 2.6% of which were located in permafrost regions, with an average altitude of 3818 m. The slope geohazards are mainly concentrated at 1493–1988 m. Over time, the altitude of the slope geohazards was gradually increased, and the mean altitude tended to spread from 1984 m to 2562 m by 2009, while the slope gradient varied only slightly. The number of slope geohazards increased with time and was most obvious in spring, especially in the areas above an altitude of 3000 m. The increase in temperature and precipitation in spring may be an important reason for this phenomenon, because the results suggest that the rate of air warming and precipitation at geohazard sites increased gradually. Based on the observation of the spatial location, altitude and temperature growth rate of slope geohazards, it is noted that new geohazard clusters (NGCs) appear in the study area, and there is still a possibility of migration under the future climate conditions. Based on future climate forecast data, we estimate that the low-, moderate- and high-sensitivity areas of the QTP will be mainly south of 30° N in 2030, will extend to the south of 33° N in 2060 and will continue to expand to the south of 35° N in 2099; we also estimate that the proportion of high-sensitivity areas will increase from 10.93% in 2030 to 14.17% in 2060 and 17.48% in 2099.

Projecting future vegetation change for northeast China using CMIP6

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wei Yuan ◽  
Shuang-ye Wu ◽  
Shugui Hou
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Vegetation Change ◽  
Management Strategies ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Vegetation Changes ◽  
Emission Scenarios ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation

<p>This study aims to establish future vegetation changes in the east and central of northern China (ECNC), an ecologically sensitive region in the transition zonal from humid monsoonal to arid continental climate. The region has experienced significant greening in the past several decades. However, few studies exist on how vegetation will change with future climate change, and great uncertainties exist due to complex, and often spatially non-stationary, relationships between vegetation and climate. In this study, we first used historical NDVI and climate data to model this spatially variable relationship with Geographically Weighted Logit Regression. We found that temperature and precipitation could explain, on average, 43% of NDVI variance, and they could be used to model NDVI fairly well. We then establish future climate change using the output of 11 CMIP6 models for the medium (SSP245) and high (SSP585) emission scenarios for the mid-century (2041-2070) and late-century (2071-2100). The results show that for this region, both temperature and precipitation will increase under both scenarios. By late-century under SSP585, precipitation is projected to increase by 25.12% and temperature is projected to increase 5.87<sup>o</sup>C in ECNC. Finally, we used future climate conditions as input for the regression models to project future vegetation (indicated by NDVI). We found that NDVI will increase under climate change. By mid-century, the average NDVI in ECNC will increase by 0.024 and 0.021 under SSP245 and SSP585. By late-century, it will increase by 0.016 and 0.006 under SSP245 and SSP585 respectively. Although NDVI is projected to increase, the magnitude of increase is likely to diminish with higher emission scenarios, possibly due to the benefit of precipitation increase being gradually encroached by the detrimental effects of temperature increase. Moreover, despite the overall NDVI increase, the area likely to suffer vegetation degradation will also expands, particularly in the western part of ECNC. With higher emissions and later into the century, region with low NDVI is likely to shift and/or expand north-forward. Our results could provide important information on possible vegetation changes, which could help to develop effective management strategies to ensure ecological and economic sustainability in the future.</p>

Calculating groundwater stress and climate change-induced vulnerability of karst aquifers on a global scale

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Philipp Nußbaum ◽  
Márk Somogyvári ◽  
Christopher Conrad ◽  
Martin Sauter ◽  
Irina Engelhardt
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Stress ◽  
Climatic Factors ◽  
Karst Aquifer ◽  
Global Scale ◽  
Stress Index ◽  
Karst Aquifers ◽  
Climate Zones ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation

<p>Approximately 10% of the global population rely on groundwater from karst aquifers. Due to complex karst structures, these aquifers have high infiltration capacities and hydraulic conductivities, which makes them vulnerable to pollution and, as prediction and management are complicated, overexploitation. As populations are growing and demand rises, we assess the current level of groundwater stress in karst aquifers with Mediterranean climates and their vulnerability (defined as the change in groundwater stress) to expected changes in temperature and precipitation on the global scale.</p><p>Our approach is based on a Groundwater Stress Index (GSI), which is calculated for 356 karst aquifers (as identified in the World Karst Aquifer Map) that have some of their area located in Mediterranean climate zones (Csa, Csb, and Csc after Köppen/Geiger). GSI are calculated from seven indicators: groundwater recharge, storage, and abstractions, surface runoff, climatic water balance, water-intensity of crops, and groundwater-dependent ecosystems. Each indicator is spatially and temporally averaged to describe a recent trend on aquifer level, resulting in one complex attribute table for the 356 aquifers. GSI is calculated as the average of the normalized indicators for each aquifer, ranging from 0 (no water stress) to 1 (extreme water stress).</p><p>Aquifers are then grouped based on similarities in two classification parameters – degree of karstification (P1) and land cover (P2). Comparison of aquifers with similar classification parameters allows to focus more directly on the relationship between groundwater stress and climate, disregarding relatively constant influences. For each group (e.g., well-developed karst, primarily agriculturally used), we plot calculated GSI values with current temperature and precipitation data. By investigating four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) until 2100, we identify aquifers that mimic future climate conditions for others with similar P1 and P2. We then measure the difference in groundwater stress accompanied by altered climatic factors. This change is interpreted as vulnerability to climate change.</p><p>This approach, which relies on present-day observed conditions, allows us to predict the effect of a changing climate without the need to develop a complex numerical model, which requires large amounts of data and functional understanding of aquifer behavior. While analysis is currently ongoing, we expect both groundwater stress and vulnerabilities to be high. Predicted climate zone shifts by Beck et al. (2018) indicate that, out of 356 karst aquifers with Mediterranean climates, 52 could move to more extreme arid climate zones by 2100.</p><p>Results will be visualized in the form of vulnerability maps that may serve as an “early-warning system”. For particularly threatened aquifers, we will derive recommendations for more sustainable management by suggesting strategies to lower groundwater stress. This is done by taking a closer look at the aquifer’s indicator values and identifying factors that currently contribute the most to groundwater stress.</p>

scholarly journals Carbon Balance of Grasslands on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau under Future Climate Change: A Review

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 533
Author(s):  
Rong Leng ◽  
Quanzhi Yuan ◽  
Yushuang Wang ◽  
Qian Kuang ◽  
Ping Ren
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Carbon Balance ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Tibet Plateau ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Balance Study ◽  
Model Projection ◽  
Climatic Environment ◽  
The Future ◽  
Qinghai Tibet Plateau

Climate change has brought significant impacts upon the natural ecological environment and human social development. The future carbon balance study has become an important part of research on the impacts of climate change. The Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP) is a key area for studying climate change. Grassland, as a typical ecosystem of the QTP, embodies the sensitivity of the plateau to the climatic environment, so the carbon balance of grassland under future climate change conditions is important for studying global change. This paper reviewed the literature on carbon balance projection of grassland on the QTP under climate change. Two types of research methods were used to analyze and discuss the studies’ results, including experimental scenario projection and model projection. The experiment projected that appropriate temperature and moisture could enhance the carbon sink capacity of a grassland ecosystem, where moisture played a leading role. The model projection results showed that the carbon balance under different spatial and temporal scales were different. Although both can project the carbon balance of the study area, there are still some uncertainties. In addition, this research area should also consider the influence of human activity and plateau pikas to more accurately project the future carbon balance.

Quantifying sensitivity and exposure of multiple ecosystem services to climate change: A case study of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau 

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ting Hua ◽  
Wenwu Zhao ◽  
Paulo Pereira
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Ecosystem Services ◽  
Spatial Association ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Tibet Plateau ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Emission Pathway ◽  
Climatic Drivers ◽  
Qinghai Tibet Plateau

<p><strong>        </strong>Global warming has imposed a positive or adverse impact on ecosystem services and it will be further amplified in vulnerable areas like Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. However, there is a limited understanding of spatial interaction among ecosystem services and their climatic drivers at a fine resolution, regardless of the historical or future periods. This study attempted to fill this gap by detecting sensitivity and exposure of ecosystem services to climate change based on spatial moving window method, combined with Modis-based satellite datasets and various future scenarios dataset. We found that Carbon Sequence and Oxygen Production (CSOP) and habitat quality experienced significant growth, while water retention (WR) showed a fluctuation trend on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. For CSOP, 56.94% of the pixels showed a positive sensitivity to climate change, which is nearly twice the ones with negative sensitivity (26.72%). And there is an evident positive sensitivity between WR and precipitation. Also, there is substantial spatial heterogeneity in the exposure of ecosystem services to future climate changes. A high-emission pathway (SSP5-8.5) increases the intensity of exposure on ecosystem services than low-emission pathway, and disturbances accompanied by future climate change at specific elevation intervals should not be ignored. Identifying spatial association among the ecosystem services and climatic drivers is helpful for targeted management and sustainable development of soil in the context of global warming.</p><p><strong>Keywords</strong></p><p>Ecosystem services, Climate change, Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, Sensitivity, Exposure</p>

scholarly journals ANN Model-Based Simulation of the Runoff Variation in Response to Climate Change on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, China

2017 ◽  
Vol 2017 ◽  
pp. 1-13 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chang Juan ◽  
Wang Genxu ◽  
Mao Tianxu ◽  
Sun Xiangyang
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climatic Change ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Practical Significance ◽  
Tibet Plateau ◽  
Ann Model ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Runoff Variation ◽  
Input Variables ◽  
Qinghai Tibet Plateau

Precisely quantitative assessments of stream flow response to climatic change and permafrost thawing are highly challenging and urgent in cold regions. However, due to the notably harsh environmental conditions, there is little field monitoring data of runoff in permafrost regions, which has limited the development of physically based models in these regions. To identify the impacts of climate change in the runoff process in the Three-River Headwater Region (TRHR) on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, two artificial neural network (ANN) models, one with three input variables (previous runoff, air temperature, and precipitation) and another with two input variables (air temperature and precipitation only), were developed to simulate and predict the runoff variation in the TRHR. The results show that the three-input variable ANN model has a superior real-time prediction capability and performs well in the simulation and forecasting of the runoff variation in the TRHR. Under the different scenarios conditions, the forecasting results of ANN model indicated that climate change has a great effect on the runoff processes in the TRHR. The results of this study are of practical significance for water resources management and the evaluation of the impacts of climatic change on the hydrological regime in long-term considerations.

scholarly journals The impact of climate change on the corn yield in Serbia

2020 ◽  
Vol 25 (50) ◽  
pp. 133-140
Author(s):  
Gordana Petrović ◽  
Darjan Karabašević ◽  
Svetlana Vukotić ◽  
Vuk Mirčetić ◽  
Adriana Radosavac
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climatic Factors ◽  
Vegetation Period ◽  
Research Process ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Corn Yield ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Agricultural Plant ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
The Impact

The aim of the paper is to show the impact of climate factors on the corn yield in Serbia. Contemporary climate reports show that climate is changing, and the emission of greenhouse gases is one of the main causes of climate change. In three different locations (West Bačka District, Šumadija District and Nišava District) different climatic conditions and corn yield were analyzed for the period from 1991 to 2011. In the research process, the model of multiple linear regression and Pearson coefficient of correlation was applied. Obtained results has shown that there is a high correlation between parameters of climate conditions and variance of corn yield. A small amount of precipitation quantity and high maximum values of temperatures in the vegetation period influenced the decrease in yield, which was particularly noticed during the period from 2000 to 2007. A lower yield of corn was established compared to the average yield in all three observed districts, in the Šumadija district, the yield was lower 48% in 2000 and 52% in 2007, in the West Bačka District, a yield was lower 40% in 2000 and 20% in 2007, and in the Nišava District, the yield was lower 65% in 2000 and 49% in 2007. There are perennial variations of climatic factors, especially temperature and precipitation quantity, which affect the realization of the economic profitability of growing agricultural plant species. Losses in agriculture can be higher in conditions of an unstable climate. It is necessary to more precisely predict climate change and create new hybrids and varieties for cultivation that will be adaptable to changed climate conditions. Adaptations of plants to climatic conditions changes will contribute to greater economy of agricultural production, and the provision of food for the world's population.

scholarly journals Assessing the Impact of Climate Change on Potential Distribution of Meconopsis punicea and Its Influence on Ecosystem Services Supply in the Southeastern Margin of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

2022 ◽  
Vol 12 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ning Shi ◽  
Niyati Naudiyal ◽  
Jinniu Wang ◽  
Narayan Prasad Gaire ◽  
Yan Wu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Ecosystem Services ◽  
Potential Distribution ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Tibet Plateau ◽  
Suitable Habitat ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Model Output ◽  
Southeastern Margin ◽  
Qinghai Tibet Plateau

Meconopsis punicea is an iconic ornamental and medicinal plant whose natural habitat has degraded under global climate change, posing a serious threat to the future survival of the species. Therefore, it is critical to analyze the influence of climate change on possible distribution of M. punicea for conservation and sustainable utilization of this species. In this study, we used MaxEnt ecological niche modeling to predict the potential distribution of M. punicea under current and future climate scenarios in the southeastern margin region of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. Model projections under current climate show that 16.8% of the study area is suitable habitat for Meconopsis. However, future projections indicate a sharp decline in potential habitat for 2050 and 2070 climate change scenarios. Soil type was the most important environmental variable in determining the habitat suitability of M. punicea, with 27.75% contribution to model output. Temperature seasonality (16.41%), precipitation of warmest quarter (14.01%), and precipitation of wettest month (13.02%), precipitation seasonality (9.41%) and annual temperature range (9.24%) also made significant contributions to model output. The mean elevation of suitable habitat for distribution of M. punicea is also likely to shift upward in most future climate change scenarios. This study provides vital information for the protection and sustainable use of medicinal species like M. punicea in the context of global environmental change. Our findings can aid in developing rational, broad-scale adaptation strategies for conservation and management for ecosystem services, in light of future climate changes.

scholarly journals The Relative Contributions of Climate and Grazing on the Dynamics of Grassland NPP and PUE on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (17) ◽  
pp. 3424
Author(s):  
Huilin Yu ◽  
Qiannan Ding ◽  
Baoping Meng ◽  
Yanyan Lv ◽  
Chang Liu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Interannual Variation ◽  
Net Primary Productivity ◽  
Climatic Factors ◽  
Grazing Intensity ◽  
Tibet Plateau ◽  
Dominant Factor ◽  
Vegetation Growth ◽  
The Past ◽  
Qinghai Tibet Plateau

Net primary productivity (NPP) and precipitation-use efficiency (PUE) are crucial indicators in understanding the responses of vegetation to global change. However, the relative contributions of climate change and human interference to the dynamics of NPP and PUE remain unclear. During the past few decades, the impacts of climate change and human activities on alpine grasslands on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP) have been intensifying. The aims of the study were to investigate the spatiotemporal patterns of grassland NPP and PUE on the QTP during 2000–2017 and quantify how much of the variance in NPP and PUE can be attributed to the climatic factors (precipitation and temperature) and grazing intensity. The results showed that: (1) grassland NPP significantly increased with a rate of 0.6 g C m−2 year−1 over the past 18 years, mainly induced by the increased temperature and the enhanced precipitation. The temperature was the dominant factor for NPP interannual variation in mid-eastern QTP, and precipitation restrained vegetation growth most in the southwest and northeast. (2) The PUE was higher on the eastern and western parts of the plateau, but lower at the center. Regarding grassland types, the PUE of alpine steppe (0.19 g C m−2 mm−1) was significantly lower than those of alpine meadow (0.31 g C m−2 mm−1) and desert steppe (0.32 g C m−2 mm−1). (3) Precipitation was significantly and negatively correlated with PUE and contributed the most to the temporal variation of grassland PUE on the QTP (52.7%). (4) Furthermore, we found that the grazing activities had the lowest contributions to both NPP and PUE interannual variation, compared to temperature and precipitation. Thus, it is suggested that climate variability rather than grazing activities dominated vegetation changes on the QTP.

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