scholarly journals Retrospective economic judgments predict individual-level changes in vote preference in the US

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 272-289
Author(s):  
Hui Bai ◽  
Christopher M. Federico
Keyword(s):  
Economic Voting ◽  
Reciprocal Effects ◽  
Temporal Dimension ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Political Preferences ◽  
The Us ◽  
Vote Preference ◽  
Level Shifts ◽  
Over Time

While many studies have investigated what predicts citizens’ vote preferences, less is known about what predicts change in citizens’ vote preferences over time. This paper focuses on the role of judgments about national economy in the recent past (i.e., “sociotropic economic retrospections”). Two longitudinal studies show that sociotropic economic retrospections (along with partisanship, ideology, and whether incumbent is running for re-election) at a given time point predict within-person changes in vote choice over time. Furthermore, cross-lagged panel analyses found that sociotropic economic retrospections and political preferences may have reciprocal effects on each other. Together, these results illustrate the temporal dimension of economic voting by suggesting that sociotropic economic retrospections not only predict votes at single points in time, but also individual-level shifts in vote preference over time. As such, the association between sociotropic economic retrospections and vote preference is more dynamic than past literature suggests.

scholarly journals Trends in Disability Among Adults 55-64 in the United States and England From 2002 to 2016

2020 ◽  
Vol 4 (Supplement_1) ◽  
pp. 303-303
Author(s):  
HwaJung Choi ◽  
Robert Schoeni ◽  
Tsai-Chin Cho ◽  
Kenneth Langa
Keyword(s):  
Activities Of Daily Living ◽  
Daily Living ◽  
Income Group ◽  
The United States ◽  
Annual Change ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Income Groups ◽  
The Us ◽  
Disability Prevalence ◽  
Over Time

Abstract The paper’s goal is to assess whether and, if so, the extent to which prevalence in disability of adults near retirement ages in the US increased over time compared to their peers in England and examine income group differences in the relative trends. This study uses 2002-2016 Health and Retirement Study (HRS) and English Longitudinal Study of Ageing (ELSA) focusing on adults aged 55-64. Annual percent changes over the period of 2002-2016 for limitations in instrumental activities of daily living (IADL) and activities of daily living (ADL) are estimated for each survey (HRS and ELSA) using multivariable logistic regressions to adjust for individual-level characteristics While disability prevalence of adults ages 55-64 in England improved over the years of 2002-2016 (annual % change= -2.01 for IADL; - 2.53 for ADL), disability prevalence of US adults has not improved and in fact even worsened in terms of IADL (annual % change= +1.35). There are substantial variations in the IADL/ADL trends by income groups. In the US, the adverse trends in disability were more pronounced among the lowest income groups (annual % change in IADL=1.76 for bottom 20% vs. -2.08 for top 20%; annual % change in ADL=1.08 for bottom 20% vs. -2.08 for top 20%). In England, the disability status improved over time for all but the lowest income group. We will examine further to identify specific factors contributing to divergent/convergent trends in disability between the US and England.

scholarly journals Developing Improvisation Skills: The Influence of Individual Orientations

2020 ◽  
pp. 000183922097569
Author(s):  
Pier Vittorio Mannucci ◽  
Davide C. Orazi ◽  
Kristine de Valck
Keyword(s):  
Qualitative Analysis ◽  
Role Playing ◽  
Social Structures ◽  
Formal Training ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Stage Process ◽  
Development Trajectories ◽  
Live Action ◽  
Over Time

The growing relevance of improvisation for successful organizing calls for a better understanding of how individuals develop improvisation skills. While research has investigated the role of training and simulations, little is known about how individuals develop improvisation skills when formal training is not an option and how individual-level factors shape development trajectories. We explore these issues in a longitudinal qualitative analysis of live action role-playing. Our findings reveal a three-stage process of improvisation development shaped by the presence of task and social structures, which act as both constraints and resources. Moreover, our findings illuminate how collaborative and competitive orientations shape whether improvisers perceive these structures as a resource that they need to nurture and renew (i.e., collaborative) or to seize and exploit (i.e., competitive). We also show that individual orientations are not always enduring but can change over time, engendering four types of improvisation development trajectories. Our work provides a longitudinal account of how individual orientations shape the process of improvisation development. In so doing, we also explain why individuals who are skilled improvisers do not necessarily improvise effectively as a collective, and we reconcile different conceptualizations of improvisation.

scholarly journals Party Positions, Asset Ownership, and Economic Voting

2019 ◽  
Vol 67 (4) ◽  
pp. 912-931 ◽  
Author(s):  
Timothy Hellwig ◽  
Ian McAllister
Keyword(s):  
Competitive Advantage ◽  
Economic Voting ◽  
Conventional Wisdom ◽  
Supply Side ◽  
Asset Ownership ◽  
Important Condition ◽  
Party Positions ◽  
Key Concepts ◽  
Over Time

Conventional wisdom holds that asset owners favor parties on the center-right. This assumption, however, ignores the possibility that party positions may shift over time and across contexts. The electoral payoff from ownership thus depends on how the policies of the major parties treat those assets. In this article, we argue that the prediction that asset holders support right-of-center parties rests on the position-taking strategies of parties. We test this expectation with evidence from six elections in Australia and with a dataset of post-election surveys in 25 advanced democracies. Utilizing different measures for key concepts, both analyses support our claims. Study findings identify the supply side of electoral competition as an important condition for patrimonial economic voting and, more generally, confirm the role of parties in mobilizing voters around issues on which they have a competitive advantage.

scholarly journals When Do Citizens Respond Politically to the Local Economy? Evidence from Registry Data on Local Housing Markets

2019 ◽  
Vol 113 (2) ◽  
pp. 499-516 ◽  
Author(s):  
MARTIN VINÆS LARSEN ◽  
FREDERIK HJORTH ◽  
PETER THISTED DINESEN ◽  
KIM MANNEMAR SØNDERSKOV
Keyword(s):  
Housing Prices ◽  
Housing Markets ◽  
Economic Voting ◽  
Local Economy ◽  
Economic Conditions ◽  
Panel Survey ◽  
Detailed Data ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Process Context

Recent studies of economic voting have focused on the role of the local economy, but with inconclusive results. We argue that while local economic conditions affect incumbent support on average, the importance of the local economy varies by citizens’ interactions with it. More recent and frequent encounters with aspects of the local economy make those aspects more salient and, in turn, feature more prominently in evaluations of the incumbent government. We label this process “context priming.” We provide evidence for these propositions by studying local housing markets. Linking granularly detailed data on housing prices from Danish public registries to both precinct-level election returns and an individual-level panel survey, we find that when individuals interact with the housing market, their support for the incumbent government is more responsive to changes in local housing prices. The study thus provides a framework for understanding when citizens respond politically to the local economy.

scholarly journals ‘The enemy within’: Campaign attention and motivated reasoning in voter perceptions of intra-party conflict

2020 ◽  
pp. 135406882090640
Author(s):  
Carolina Plescia ◽  
Sylvia Kritzinger ◽  
Jakob-Moritz Eberl
Keyword(s):  
Information Processing ◽  
Motivated Reasoning ◽  
Election Campaign ◽  
Election Campaigns ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Party Strategies ◽  
Voter Perceptions ◽  
Broad Interest ◽  
Over Time

In spite of broad interest in internal party dynamics, with previous literature relatedly demonstrating that voters are not oblivious to party infighting, very little attention has been paid to the antecedents of voter perceptions of intra-party conflict. This article addresses this research deficit with the support of empirical evidence gathered over the course of the 2017 Austrian national election campaign. The study examines variations in perceived intra-party conflict over time, both across parties and within the same party. We find that although voter perceptions largely mirror actual distinctions in intra-party fighting, conspicuous individual-level variations can also be identified owing to attention to the election campaign and motivated reasoning in information processing. These results have important consequences for our understanding of voter perceptions of intra-party conflict and the role of election campaigns, with potential implications for party strategies during election campaigns.

EXPRESS: Trust Propensity across Cultures: The Role of Collectivism

2021 ◽  
pp. 1069031X2110366
Author(s):  
Stanford A. Westjohn ◽  
Peter Magnusson ◽  
George R. Franke ◽  
Yi Peng
Keyword(s):  
Past Research ◽  
Trust Game ◽  
Outcome Variable ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Individual ◽  
Trust Propensity ◽  
Explanatory Mechanism ◽  
Level Analysis

Does collectivism influence an individual's willingness to trust others? Conflicting empirical results from past research and the role of trust in international marketing make this question important to resolve. We investigate this question across cultures and at the individual level with four studies using multiple methods. Study 1 establishes correlational evidence between societal-level collectivism and individual-level trust propensity with results from a multi-level analysis of data from over 6,000 respondents in 36 different countries. Study 2 offers an individual-level analysis using the trust game, introducing a more rigorous behavioral outcome variable. Study 3 contributes causal evidence at the individual level based on experiments in both the US and China and offers evidence of social projection as the explanatory mechanism. Finally, Study 4 demonstrates managerial relevance by using advertising to prime collectivism and assessing its effect on trust in the firm.

The Contrasting Effects of Education on Fertility over Time Casalguidi, 1819–1960

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-15
Author(s):  
Matteo Manfredini ◽  
Marco Breschi ◽  
Alessio Fornasin
Keyword(s):  
Birth Control ◽  
Demographic Transition ◽  
Positive Association ◽  
Control Methods ◽  
Reproductive Behaviors ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Level Data ◽  
Transitional Phase ◽  
Over Time

Abstract Education has been frequently claimed to shape demographic outcomes. Mortality, fertility, and nuptiality have all been attested to be affected to some extent by education attainment. This article investigates the effects of education on fertility over time in a rural Italian community once controlled for potential confounders. Using individual-level data drawn from various sources, the study analyzes the role of education in shaping reproductive behaviors not only during the demographic transition (1890–1960) but also in the pretransitional period (1819–59). The results highlight the contrasting effects of literacy on fertility, which passed from a positive association in the ancien régime to a negative one in the transitional phase. Educated couples were therefore forerunners in the process of fertility decline because they were not only in the position to be the most pressed to control reproduction but also because they were likely aware of reproductive mechanisms, had the knowledge of more effective birth-control methods, had the economic possibility to get them, and had the necessary capacity to use them.

Why Do People Engage in Unlawful Political Protest? Examining the Role of Authoritarianism in Illegal Protest Behavior

2021 ◽  
pp. 1532673X2110532
Author(s):  
Isabel Inguanzo ◽  
Araceli Mateos ◽  
Homero Gil de Zúñiga
Keyword(s):  
Ordinary Least Squares ◽  
Political Protest ◽  
Panel Survey ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
The Us ◽  
Relevant Variables ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Different Levels

Prior research on individual-level drivers of protest has primarily focused on legal protest. However, less is known about what makes people engage in unlawful protest activities. Building upon previous literature on the collective action dilemma, socialization on violent and high-risk social movements, and political psychology, we expect that illegal protest frequency varies at different levels of authoritarianism. We explore the relationship between authoritarian values and illegal protest by analyzing a two-wave panel survey data gathered in the US. The results of cross-sectional, lagged, and autoregressive ordinary least squares (OLS) regression models show that when controlling for legal protest and other relevant variables in protest behavior, authoritarianism predicts illegal protest following an inverted U-shaped relationship. In other words, average levels of authoritarianism predict more frequent engagement in illegal protest, while this frequency decreases as approaching the poles of the authoritarianism scale.

Devolution

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
James Mitchell
Keyword(s):  
Public Policy ◽  
Party Systems ◽  
Collective Identities ◽  
Constitutional Development ◽  
Political Preferences ◽  
Economic Developments ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Different Parts ◽  
Over Time

This chapter attempts to draw out comparisons and make sense of devolution as a UK-wide phenomenon. Devolution has taken a variety of forms at different times in different parts of the UK. A key aim of the chapter is to describe these varieties and explain why no common form of devolution emerged. Devolution may be a form of constitutional development but it has always been linked to wider socio-demographic and economic developments as much as to the sense of collective identities. Some interpretations emphasize the role of national identity in the demands for devolution in Scotland and Wales while others lay more emphasis on differences in political preferences that stimulated demands for self-government. No understanding of the politics of devolution is complete without an appreciation of the roles of identity, the party systems, political and public policy preferences, and how these changed over time.

scholarly journals College roommates have a modest but significant influence on each other’s political ideology

2020 ◽  
Vol 118 (2) ◽  
pp. e2015514117
Author(s):  
Logan Strother ◽  
Spencer Piston ◽  
Ezra Golberstein ◽  
Sarah E. Gollust ◽  
Daniel Eisenberg
Keyword(s):  
Peer Effects ◽  
Political Ideology ◽  
College Education ◽  
Political Polarization ◽  
Political Preferences ◽  
Political Views ◽  
College Roommates ◽  
Shed Light ◽  
Over Time

Does college change students’ political preferences? While existing research has documented associations between college education and political views, it remains unclear whether these associations reflect a causal relationship. We address this gap in previous research by analyzing a quasi-experiment in which university students are assigned to live together as roommates. While we find little evidence that college students as a whole become more liberal over time, we do find strong evidence of peer effects, in which students’ political views become more in line with the views of their roommates over time. This effect is strongest for conservative students. These findings shed light on the role of higher education in an era of political polarization.

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