scholarly journals Climate change promotes hybridisation between deeply divergent species

PeerJ ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 5 ◽  
pp. e3072 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniele Canestrelli ◽  
Roberta Bisconti ◽  
Andrea Chiocchio ◽  
Luigi Maiorano ◽  
Mauro Zampiglia ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Bufo Bufo ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Distribution Models ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Chance Events ◽  
Ultimate Cause ◽  
Species Groups ◽  
Near Future

Rare hybridisations between deeply divergent animal species have been reported for decades in a wide range of taxa, but have often remained unexplained, mainly considered chance events and reported as anecdotal. Here, we combine field observations with long-term data concerning natural hybridisations, climate, land-use, and field-validated species distribution models for two deeply divergent and naturally sympatric toad species in Europe (Bufo bufoandBufotes viridisspecies groups). We show that climate warming and seasonal extreme temperatures are conspiring to set the scene for these maladaptive hybridisations, by differentially affecting life-history traits of both species. Our results identify and provide evidence of an ultimate cause for such events, and reveal that the potential influence of climate change on interspecific hybridisations goes far beyond closely related species. Furthermore, climate projections suggest that the chances for these events will steadily increase in the near future.

scholarly journals Climate change promotes hybridisation between deeply divergent species

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniele Canestrelli ◽  
Roberta Bisconti ◽  
Andrea Chiocchio ◽  
Luigi Maiorano ◽  
Mauro Zampiglia ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Bufo Bufo ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Distribution Models ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Chance Events ◽  
Ultimate Cause ◽  
Species Groups ◽  
Near Future

AbstractRare hybridisations between deeply divergent animal species have been reported for decades in a wide range of taxa, but have often remained unexplained, mainly considered chance events and reported as anecdotal. Here, we combine field observations with long-term data concerning natural hybridizations, climate, land-use, and field-validated species distribution models for two deeply divergent and naturally sympatric toad species in Europe (Bufo bufo and Bufotes viridis species groups). We show that climate warming and seasonal extreme temperatures are conspiring to set the scene for these maladaptive hybridisations, by differentially affecting life-history traits of both species. Our results identify and provide evidence of an ultimate cause for such events, and reveal that the potential influence of climate change on interspecific hybridisations goes far beyond closely related species. Furthermore, climate projections suggest that the chances for these events will steadily increase in the near future.

scholarly journals Vineyard-specific climate projections help growers manage risk and plan adaptation in the Paso Robles AVA

2022 ◽  
Vol 75 (3) ◽  
pp. 142-150
Author(s):  
Nicholas Babin ◽  
Jazlyn Guerrero ◽  
Diego Rivera ◽  
Ajay Singh
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Adaptation ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Wine Grape ◽  
Support Tools ◽  
Plan Adaptation ◽  
The One ◽  
Dry Farming ◽  
Near Future

California's wine grape growers will face increasing challenges under a changing climate as most production occurs near the boundaries of current varieties' climatic thresholds. As part of this study, we developed a method for transforming downscaled climate information from the publicly available Cal-Adapt database into useful and useable climate projections for vineyard managers and advisors in the Paso Robles American Viticultural Area. We shared vineyard-specific projections during interviews of 20 managers and advisors. Overall, interviewees expressed trust in the projections and found them helpful in reducing their psychological distance from climate change. The projections prompted consideration of strategies for managing future climate risk and planning adaptation, with the majority of adaptations associated with long-term decisions such as row orientation, variety selection, dry farming, crop diversification and relocation. Agri-climatic decision support tools such as the one prototyped here may prove especially helpful for incorporating climate adaptation into the long-term business planning and vineyard redevelopment decisions facing managers and advisors in the near future. This approach could be extended to other California wine grape regions or to other perennial crops with expected vulnerabilities to climate change.

scholarly journals Sediment Mining

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Homayoun Fathollahzadeh ◽  
Fabio Kaczala ◽  
Amit Bhatnagar ◽  
William Hogland
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Contaminated Sediments ◽  
Management Options ◽  
Metals Recovery ◽  
Environmental Footprints ◽  
Valuable Metals ◽  
Short And Long Term ◽  
Near Future

The main dilemma of contaminated sediments has been the proper management with reduced environmental footprints. Furthermore, by considering the fact that global warming and climate change may complicate the choice of management options, finding appropriate solutions become extremely critical. In the present work, mining of contaminated sediments to recover valuable constituents such as metals and nutrients is proposed as sustainable strategy, both through enhancing resilience of ecosystem and remediation. Contaminated sediments in the Oskarshamn harbor, southeast of Sweden were collected and analyzed through a modified sequential extraction in order to evaluate the feasibility of metals recovery. The results have shown that among different metals present in the sediments, Cu and Pb can be initially considered as economically feasible to recover. The shifting in the concept of dredging and further remediation of contaminated sediments towards sediment mining and recover of valuable metals can be considered in the near future as a sustainable strategy to tackle contaminated harbor/ports areas. However, it must be highlighted that short and long-term environmental impacts related to such activities should be addressed.

scholarly journals Back to the Future: Using Long-Term Observational and Paleo-Proxy Reconstructions to Improve Model Projections of Antarctic Climate

Geosciences ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (6) ◽  
pp. 255 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thomas J. Bracegirdle ◽  
Florence Colleoni ◽  
Nerilie J. Abram ◽  
Nancy A. N. Bertler ◽  
Daniel A. Dixon ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Ice Core ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Past Performance ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Proxy Reconstructions

Quantitative estimates of future Antarctic climate change are derived from numerical global climate models. Evaluation of the reliability of climate model projections involves many lines of evidence on past performance combined with knowledge of the processes that need to be represented. Routine model evaluation is mainly based on the modern observational period, which started with the establishment of a network of Antarctic weather stations in 1957/58. This period is too short to evaluate many fundamental aspects of the Antarctic and Southern Ocean climate system, such as decadal-to-century time-scale climate variability and trends. To help address this gap, we present a new evaluation of potential ways in which long-term observational and paleo-proxy reconstructions may be used, with a particular focus on improving projections. A wide range of data sources and time periods is included, ranging from ship observations of the early 20th century to ice core records spanning hundreds to hundreds of thousands of years to sediment records dating back 34 million years. We conclude that paleo-proxy records and long-term observational datasets are an underused resource in terms of strategies for improving Antarctic climate projections for the 21st century and beyond. We identify priorities and suggest next steps to addressing this.

scholarly journals The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) for CMIP6

2016 ◽  
Vol 9 (9) ◽  
pp. 3461-3482 ◽  
Author(s):  
Brian C. O'Neill ◽  
Claudia Tebaldi ◽  
Detlef P. van Vuuren ◽  
Veronika Eyring ◽  
Pierre Friedlingstein ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
21St Century ◽  
Integrated Assessment ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Model Intercomparison ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Scenario Model ◽  
Intercomparison Project

Abstract. Projections of future climate change play a fundamental role in improving understanding of the climate system as well as characterizing societal risks and response options. The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) is the primary activity within Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) that will provide multi-model climate projections based on alternative scenarios of future emissions and land use changes produced with integrated assessment models. In this paper, we describe ScenarioMIP's objectives, experimental design, and its relation to other activities within CMIP6. The ScenarioMIP design is one component of a larger scenario process that aims to facilitate a wide range of integrated studies across the climate science, integrated assessment modeling, and impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability communities, and will form an important part of the evidence base in the forthcoming Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessments. At the same time, it will provide the basis for investigating a number of targeted science and policy questions that are especially relevant to scenario-based analysis, including the role of specific forcings such as land use and aerosols, the effect of a peak and decline in forcing, the consequences of scenarios that limit warming to below 2 °C, the relative contributions to uncertainty from scenarios, climate models, and internal variability, and long-term climate system outcomes beyond the 21st century. To serve this wide range of scientific communities and address these questions, a design has been identified consisting of eight alternative 21st century scenarios plus one large initial condition ensemble and a set of long-term extensions, divided into two tiers defined by relative priority. Some of these scenarios will also provide a basis for variants planned to be run in other CMIP6-Endorsed MIPs to investigate questions related to specific forcings. Harmonized, spatially explicit emissions and land use scenarios generated with integrated assessment models will be provided to participating climate modeling groups by late 2016, with the climate model simulations run within the 2017–2018 time frame, and output from the climate model projections made available and analyses performed over the 2018–2020 period.

scholarly journals Susceptibility of Hydropower Generation to Climate Change: Karun III Dam Case Study

Water ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (5) ◽  
pp. 1025 ◽  
Author(s):  
Maryam Beheshti ◽  
Ali Heidari ◽  
Bahram Saghafian
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Power Generation ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Average Power ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Precipitation Trend ◽  
Hydropower Generation ◽  
Near Future ◽  
Far Future

Climate change can cause serious problems for future hydropower plant projects and make them less economically justified. Changing precipitation patterns, rising temperatures, and abrupt snow melting affect river stream patterns and hydropower generation. Thus, study of climate change impacts during the useful life of a hydropower dam is essential and its outcome should be considered in assessing long-term dam feasibility. The aim of this research is to evaluate the impacts of climate change on future hydropower generation in the Karun-III dam located in the southwest region of Iran in two future tri-decadal periods: near (2020–2049) and far (2070–2099). Had-CM3 general circulation model predictions under A2 and B2 SRES scenarios were applied, and downscaled by a statistical downscaling model (SDSM). An artificial neural network (ANN) and HEC-ResSim reservoir model respectively simulated the rainfall–runoff process and hydropower generation. The projections showed that the Karun-III dam catchment under the two scenarios will generally become warmer and wetter with a slightly larger increase in annual precipitation in the near than the far future. Runoff followed the precipitation trend by increasing in both periods. The runoff peak also switched from April to March in both scenarios, due to higher winter precipitation, and earlier snowmelt, which was caused by temperature rise. According to both scenarios, hydropower generation increased more in the near future than in the far future. Annual average power generation increased gradually by 26.7–40.5% under A2 and by 17.4–29.3% under B2 in 2020–2049. In the far period, average power generation increased by 1.8–8.7% in A2 and by 10.5–22% under B2. In the near future, A2 showed energy deduction in the months of June and July, while B2 revealed a decrease in the months of April and June. Additionally, projections in the 2070–2099 under A2 exhibited energy reduction in the months of March through July, while B2 revealed a decrease in April through July. The framework utilized in this study can be exploited to analyze the susceptibility of hydropower production in the long term.

scholarly journals Impact of Climate Change on Livestock Returns and Rangeland Ecosystem Sustainability in the Southwest

2018 ◽  
Vol 47 (2) ◽  
pp. 336-356 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gregory L. Torell ◽  
Katherine D. Lee
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Current Method ◽  
Adaptive Methods ◽  
Livestock Grazing ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Stocking Rate ◽  
Forage Production ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Stocking Rates

Climate change will increase variability in temperature and precipitation on rangelands, impacting ecosystem services including livestock grazing. Facing uncertainty about future climate, managers must know if current practices will maintain rangeland sustainability. Herein, the future density of an invasive species, broom snakeweed, is estimated using a long-term ecological dataset and climate projections. We find that livestock stocking rates determined using a current method result in lower forage production, allowable stocking rate, and grazing value than an economically efficient stocking rate. Results indicate that using ecology and adaptive methods in management are critical to the sustainability of rangelands.

Understanding the Climate-Sensitive Decisions and Information Needs of Freshwater Resource Managers in Hawaii

2013 ◽  
Vol 5 (4) ◽  
pp. 293-308 ◽  
Author(s):  
Melissa L. Finucane ◽  
Rachel Miller ◽  
L. Kati Corlew ◽  
Victoria W. Keener ◽  
Maxine Burkett ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Information Needs ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Uncertain Information ◽  
Climate Information ◽  
Freshwater Resources ◽  
Freshwater Resource ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Climate Literacy

Abstract Understanding how climate science can be useful in decisions about the management of freshwater resources requires knowledge of decision makers, their climate-sensitive decisions, and the context in which the decisions are being made. A mixed-methods study found that people managing freshwater resources in Hawaii are highly educated and experienced in diverse professions, they perceive climate change as posing a worrisome risk, and they would like to be better informed about how to adapt to climate change. Decision makers with higher climate literacy seem to be more comfortable dealing with uncertain information. Those with lower climate literacy seem to be more trusting of climate information from familiar sources. Freshwater managers in Hawaii make a wide range of climate-sensitive decisions. These decisions can be characterized on several key dimensions including purpose (optimization and evaluation), time horizon (short term and long term), level of information uncertainty (known, uncertain, deeply uncertain, and completely unknown), and information type (quantitative and qualitative). The climate information most relevant to decision makers includes vulnerability assessments incorporating long-term projections about temperature, rainfall distribution, storms, sea level rise, and streamflow changes at an island or statewide scale. The main barriers to using available climate information include insufficient staff time to locate the information and the lack of a clear legal mandate to use the information. Overall, the results suggest that an integrated and systematic approach is needed to determine where and when uncertain climate information is useful and how a larger set of organizational and individual variables affect decision making.

scholarly journals Winter tourism under climate change in the Pyrenees and the French Alps: relevance of snowmaking as a technical adaptation

2019 ◽  
Vol 13 (4) ◽  
pp. 1325-1347 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pierre Spandre ◽  
Hugues François ◽  
Deborah Verfaillie ◽  
Marc Pons ◽  
Matthieu Vernay ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Reference Period ◽  
Winter Tourism ◽  
French Alps ◽  
Ski Resorts ◽  
The Alps ◽  
Natural Snow ◽  
Snow Conditions ◽  
Near Future

Abstract. Climate change is increasingly regarded as a threat for winter tourism due to the combined effect of decreasing natural snow amounts and decreasing suitable periods for snowmaking. The present work investigated the snow reliability of 175 ski resorts in France (Alps and Pyrenees), Spain and Andorra under past and future conditions using state-of-the-art snowpack modelling and climate projections using Representative Concentration Pathways RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The natural snow reliability (i.e. without snowmaking) elevation showed a significant spatial variability in the reference period (1986–2005) and was shown to be highly impacted by the ongoing climate change. The reliability elevation using snowmaking is projected to rise by 200 to 300 m in the Alps and by 400 to 600 m in the Pyrenees in the near future (2030–2050) compared to the reference period for all climate scenarios. While 99 % of ski lift infrastructures exhibit adequate snow reliability in the reference period when using snowmaking, a significant fraction (14 % to 25 %) may be considered in a critical situation in the near future. Beyond the mid-century, climate projections highly depend on the scenario with either steady conditions compared to the near future (RCP2.6) or continuous decrease in snow reliability (RCP8.5). Under RCP8.5, our projections show that there would no longer be any snow-reliable ski resorts based on natural snow conditions in the French Alps and Pyrenees (France, Spain and Andorra) at the end of the century (2080–2100). For this time period and this scenario, only 24 resorts are projected to remain reliable with snowmaking, all being located in the Alps.

scholarly journals Water Quality Sustainability Evaluation under Uncertainty: A Multi-Scenario Analysis Based on Bayesian Networks

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (17) ◽  
pp. 4764 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anna Sperotto ◽  
Josè Luis Molina ◽  
Silvia Torresan ◽  
Andrea Critto ◽  
Manuel Pulido-Velazquez ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Bayesian Networks ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Large Variability ◽  
Nutrient Loadings

With increasing evidence of climate change affecting the quality of water resources, there is the need to assess the potential impacts of future climate change scenarios on water systems to ensure their long-term sustainability. The study assesses the uncertainty in the hydrological responses of the Zero river basin (northern Italy) generated by the adoption of an ensemble of climate projections from 10 different combinations of a global climate model (GCM)–regional climate model (RCM) under two emission scenarios (representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5). Bayesian networks (BNs) are used to analyze the projected changes in nutrient loadings (NO3, NH4, PO4) in mid- (2041–2070) and long-term (2071–2100) periods with respect to the baseline (1983–2012). BN outputs show good confidence that, across considered scenarios and periods, nutrient loadings will increase, especially during autumn and winter seasons. Most models agree in projecting a high probability of an increase in nutrient loadings with respect to current conditions. In summer and spring, instead, the large variability between different GCM–RCM results makes it impossible to identify a univocal direction of change. Results suggest that adaptive water resource planning should be based on multi-model ensemble approaches as they are particularly useful for narrowing the spectrum of plausible impacts and uncertainties on water resources.

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