scholarly journals Beyond Deaths per Capita: Comparative CoViD-19 Mortality Indicators

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Patrick Heuveline ◽  
Michael Tzen
Keyword(s):  
New York ◽  
New Jersey ◽  
Life Expectancy ◽  
Death Rate ◽  
Crude Death Rate ◽  
Total Size ◽  
Life Expectancy At Birth ◽  
The Us ◽  
Indirect Standardization ◽  
Age And Sex

AbstractThe number of CoViD-19 deaths more reliably tracks the progression of the disease across populations than the number of confirmed cases. Substantial age and sex differences in CoViD-19 death rates imply that the number of deaths should be adjusted not just for the total size of the population, but also for its age-and-sex distribution. Following well-established practices in demography, this article discusses several measures based on the number of CoViD-19 deaths over time and across populations. The first measure is an unstandardized occurrence/exposure rate comparable to the Crude Death Rate. To date, the highest value has been in New York, where at its peak it exceeded the state 2017 Crude Death Rate. The second measure is an indirectly standardized rate that can be derived even when the breakdown of CoViD-19 deaths by age and sex required for direct standardization is unavailable. For populations with such breakdowns, we show that direct and indirect standardization yield similar results.Standardization modifies comparison across populations: while New Jersey now has the highest unstandardized rate, Baja California (Mexico) has the highest standardized rate. Finally, extant life tables allow to estimate reductions in life expectancy at birth. In the US, life expectancy is projected to decline this year by more (-.68) than the worst year of the HIV epidemic, or the worst three years of the opioid crisis, and to reach its lowest level since 2008. Substantially larger reductions, exceeding two years, are projected for Ecuador, Chile, New York, New Jersey and Peru.

scholarly journals Beyond deaths per capita: comparative COVID-19 mortality indicators

BMJ Open ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (3) ◽  
pp. e042934 ◽  
Author(s):  
Patrick Heuveline ◽  
Michael Tzen
Keyword(s):  
Life Expectancy ◽  
Death Rate ◽  
Population Distribution ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Secondary Outcome ◽  
Crude Death Rate ◽  
Life Expectancy At Birth ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Age And Sex ◽  
Direct Standardisation

ObjectivesFollowing well-established practices in demography, this article discusses several measures based on the number of COVID-19 deaths to facilitate comparisons over time and across populations.SettingsNational populations in 186 United Nations countries and territories and populations in first-level subnational administrative entities in Brazil, China, Italy, Mexico, Peru, Spain and the USA.ParticipantsNone (death statistics only).Primary and secondary outcome measuresAn unstandardised occurrence/exposure rate comparable to the Crude Death Rate; an indirectly age-and-sex standardised rate that can be derived even when the breakdown of COVID-19 deaths by age and sex required for direct standardisation is unavailable; the reduction in life expectancy at birth corresponding to the 2020 number of COVID-19 deaths.ResultsTo date, the highest unstandardised rate has been in New York, at its peak exceeding the state 2017 crude death rate. Populations compare differently after standardisation: while parts of Italy, Spain and the USA have the highest unstandardised rates, parts of Mexico and Peru have the highest standardised rates. For several populations with the necessary data by age and sex for direct standardisation, we show that direct and indirect standardisation yield similar results. US life expectancy is estimated to have declined this year by more than a year (−1.26 years), far more than during the worst year of the HIV epidemic, or the worst 3 years of the opioid crisis, and to reach its lowest level since 2008. Substantially larger reductions, exceeding 2 years, are estimated for Panama, Peru, and parts of Italy, Spain, the USA and especially, Mexico.ConclusionsWith lesser demand on data than direct standardisation, indirect standardisation is a valid alternative to adjust international comparisons for differences in population distribution by sex and age-groups. A number of populations have experienced reductions in 2020 life expectancies that are substantial by recent historical standards.

scholarly journals Reductions in US life expectancy from COVID-19 by Race and Ethnicity: Is 2021 a repetition of 2020?

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Theresa Andrasfay ◽  
Noreen Goldman
Keyword(s):  
Life Expectancy ◽  
Race And Ethnicity ◽  
Ethnic Disparities ◽  
White Population ◽  
Widespread Distribution ◽  
Life Expectancy At Birth ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Racial Ethnic ◽  
Black And Latino

COVID-19 had a huge mortality impact in the US in 2020 and accounted for the majority of the 1.5-year reduction in 2020 life expectancy at birth. There were also substantial racial/ethnic disparities in the mortality impact of COVID-19 in 2020, with the Black and Latino populations experiencing reductions in life expectancy at birth over twice the reduction experienced by the White population. Despite continued vulnerability of the Black and Latino populations, the hope was that widespread distribution of effective vaccines would mitigate the overall impact and reduce racial/ethnic disparities in 2021. In this study, we use cause-deleted life table methods to estimate the impact of COVID-19 mortality on 2021 US period life expectancy. Our partial-year estimates, based on provisional COVID-19 deaths for January-early October 2021 suggest that racial/ethnic disparities have persisted and that life expectancy at birth in 2021 has already declined by 1.2 years from pre-pandemic levels. Our projected full-year estimates, based on projections of COVID-19 deaths through the end of 2021 from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, suggest a 1.8-year reduction in US life expectancy at birth from pre-pandemic levels, a steeper decline than the estimates produced for 2020. The reductions in life expectancy at birth estimated for the Black and Latino populations are 1.6-2.4 times the impact for the White population.

scholarly journals Black and White Differences in Life Expectancy in 4 US States, 1969-2013

2019 ◽  
Vol 134 (6) ◽  
pp. 634-642 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jay S. Kaufman ◽  
Corinne A. Riddell ◽  
Sam Harper
Keyword(s):  
New York ◽  
Life Expectancy ◽  
Racial Differences ◽  
State Level ◽  
Decomposition Methods ◽  
The United States ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Age Group ◽  
Life Expectancy At Birth ◽  
Racial Gap

Objectives: Racial differences in mortality in the United States have narrowed and vary by time and place. The objectives of our study were to (1) examine the gap in life expectancy between white and black persons (hereinafter, racial gap in life expectancy) in 4 states (California, Georgia, Illinois, and New York) and (2) estimate trends in the contribution of major causes of death (CODs) to the racial gap in life expectancy by age group. Methods: We extracted data on the number of deaths and population sizes for 1969-2013 by state, sex, race, age group, and 6 major CODs. We used a Bayesian time-series model to smooth and impute mortality rates and decomposition methods to estimate trends in sex- and age-specific contributions of CODs to the racial gap in life expectancy. Results: The racial gap in life expectancy at birth decreased in all 4 states, especially among men in New York (from 8.8 to 1.1 years) and women in Georgia (from 8.0 to 1.7 years). Although few deaths occurred among persons aged 1-39, racial differences in mortality at these ages (mostly from injuries and infant mortality) contributed to the racial gap in life expectancy, especially among men in California (1.0 year of the 4.3-year difference in 2013) and Illinois (1.9 years of the 6.7-year difference in 2013). Cardiovascular deaths contributed most to the racial gap in life expectancy for adults aged 40-64, but contributions decreased among women aged 40-64, especially in Georgia (from 2.8 to 0.5 years). The contribution of cancer deaths to inequality increased in California and Illinois, whereas New York had the greatest reductions in inequality attributable to cancer deaths (from 0.6 to 0.2 years among men and from 0.2 to 0 years among women). Conclusions: Future research should identify policy innovations and economic changes at the state level to better understand New York’s success, which may help other states emulate its performance.

scholarly journals Clinical Figure and Rate of Mortality Among Chronic Schizophrenics: A Local Assessment

2020 ◽  
Vol 2 (02) ◽  
pp. 01-04
Author(s):  
Saeed Shafti
Keyword(s):  
Mental Disorders ◽  
Life Expectancy ◽  
Cause Of Death ◽  
Death Rate ◽  
Psychiatric Patients ◽  
Crude Death Rate ◽  
Aged Patients ◽  
Male And Female ◽  
Female Patients ◽  
Schizophrenic Patients

Introduction: Researchers have consistently reported that people with mental disorders have elevated mortality compared with the general population. In Iran there are not systematic psychiatric case registers that could allow us to study precisely the mortality of psychiatric patients. The aim of the current study was to determine the mortality rate and clinical profile of death in a group of non-western chronic elderly schizophrenic patients. Methods: chronic geriatric subdivision of Razi Psychiatric hospital with a capacity around 220 beds (110 for each of male and female elderly patients) had been selected as the specific arena of investigation. For the present retrospective survey, all recorded deceases during the last sixty months (April of 2014-August 2019) in the said senior wards had been included in the current study. Clinical diagnosis, too, was essentially based on ‘Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders’, 5th edition (DSM-5). Results: Among eight-hundreds and frothy chronic elderly schizophrenic patients, sixty-nine deceases had been registered by the mortality committee of the hospital. As said by results, the annual rate of mortality among elderly schizophrenic patients in the present assessment was around 0.015 (0.15 per 1,000 individuals per year) and 0.017 (0.17 per 1,000 individuals per year) among male and female aged patients, respectively, which were significantly lower than current native crude death rate (p<0.000). While the age of the expired female patients was significantly more than the died male schizophrenics (p < 0.001), the life expectancy of both male and female expired patients was significantly shorter than the public’s life expectancy (p< 0.000). Besides, in the present evaluation, while cardiac illness was the main leading cause of death among old schizophrenics, reasons like suicide, falls, drug use or tuberculosis, were not applicable at all. Conclusion: While the rate of mortality among elderly schizophrenics was significantly lower than public’s crude death rate, age of the deceased female patients was significantly longer than the male expired patients and life expectancy of both male and female died patients was significantly lower than native public’s life expectancy. Cardiac disorder, as well, was the main leading cause of death among aged schizophrenic patients.

scholarly journals DAMPAK RESESI EKONOMI PADA PENURUNAN KEMATIAN DAN PENINGKATAN ANGKA HARAPAN HIDUP DI INDONESIA*

Populasi ◽  
2016 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Siswanto Agus Wilopo
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Life Expectancy ◽  
Death Rate ◽  
Economic Recession ◽  
High Rate ◽  
Life Expectancy At Birth ◽  
Government Role ◽  
Current Economic Crisis ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Individual

Since July 1997, Indonesia has suffered a monetary crisis that has led to a high rate of inflation and economic recession. This situation has inflicted an impact on the individual at two levels that is through the family and then the government role. Economic recession ean also have a direct and indirect influence on the degree of public health. There is a phenomenon of epidemiological polarization, which has a bigger impact on handling public health issues during recession. Without a program and more effective and efficient activities compared with the previous years, the current economic crisis will endanger the pattern of the declining death rate and increasing life expectancy at birth. Although various studies indicate that recession and economic fluctuation does notalways lead to a stagnationand decline inpublic health, the economic conditions in Indonesia arefundamentally different from those in other countries going through a similar experience. Efforts to maintain a momentum in reducing death rate and increasing life expectancy require reinventingpublic health policy.

scholarly journals On a Coupled Time-Dependent Sir Models Fitting with New York and New-Jersey States COVID-19 Data

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Benjamin Ambrosio ◽  
M.A. Aziz-Alaoui
Keyword(s):  
New York ◽  
New Jersey ◽  
Death Rate ◽  
Transmission Rate ◽  
Hot Spot ◽  
Model Fitting ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Sir Model ◽  
Exponential Increase ◽  
Over Time

This article describes a simple Susceptible Infected Recovered (SIR) model fitting with COVID-19 data for the month of march 2020 in New York (NY) state. The model is a classical SIR, but is non-autonomous; the rate of susceptible people becoming infected is adjusted over time in order to fit the available data. The death rate is also secondarily adjusted. Our fitting is made under the assumption that due to limiting number of tests, a large part of the infected population has not been tested positive. In the last part, we extend the model to take into account the daily fluxes between New Jersey (NJ) and NY states and fit the data for both states. Our simple model fits the available data, and illustrates typical dynamics of the disease: exponential increase, apex and decrease. The model highlights a decrease in the transmission rate over the period which gives a quantitative illustration about how lockdown policies reduce the spread of the pandemic. The coupled model with NY and NJ states shows a wave in NJ following the NY wave, illustrating the mechanism of spread from one attractive hot spot to its neighbor.

5. The drivers

2018 ◽  
pp. 35-52
Author(s):  
Sarah Harper
Keyword(s):  
Life Expectancy ◽  
Age Structure ◽  
Death Rate ◽  
Crude Birth Rate ◽  
Population Migration ◽  
Crude Death Rate ◽  
Closed Population ◽  
Open Population ◽  
Size Growth ◽  
And Migration

The size, growth, density, distribution, and age structure or composition of a population is broadly dependent on three drivers: fertility (numbers of births), mortality (number of deaths), and migration (number of moves in and out of that population). ‘The drivers’ explores the ideas behind our understanding of these drivers on which most demographic analysis is focused. It explains that the main measures of fertility in a population are the Crude Birth Rate and the Total Fertility Rate. The main measures of mortality are the Crude Death Rate and life expectancy. Migration is different in that while mortality and fertility are typically studied within a closed population, migration introduces the notion of an open population.

Clinical Profile of Mortality among Chronic Schizophrenic Patients: A Local Pilot Survey in Iran

2020 ◽  
Vol 16 (2) ◽  
pp. 127-131
Author(s):  
Saeed Shoja Shafti ◽  
Alireza Memarie ◽  
Masomeh Rezaie ◽  
Behjat Rahimi
Keyword(s):  
Life Expectancy ◽  
Death Rate ◽  
Psychiatric Patients ◽  
Native People ◽  
Crude Death Rate ◽  
Present Sample ◽  
Male And Female ◽  
Female Patients ◽  
Schizophrenic Patients ◽  
Native Crude

Background: Many scholars believe that mental disorders may increase the risk of mortality among psychiatric patients in comparison with ordinary people. Unfortunately, since there is no systematic psychiatric case register system in Iran, a precise study of the rate of mortality of psychiatric patients in Iran is not easy. Objective: The objective of the current study included estimation of the rate of mortality and clinical profile of the died patients in a group of non-western aged schizophrenic patients. Methods: Senior section of Razi psychiatric hospital was selected as the specific field of investigation, and all elderly schizophrenic patients (≥65 years old), who had been hospitalized there, were nominated as the accessible sample and estimated with respect to the objectives of the present assessment. For survey, all deaths in the said district, which had occurred throughout the last sixty months (April of 2014-August 2019), had been listed by the supervisor of the mortality committee of the hospital. The clinical diagnosis was based on ‘Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders’, 5th edition, criteria. Results: Among 840 chronic elderly schizophrenic patients, 69 deaths were registered by the mortality committee of the hospital. As evident by the results, the annual rate of mortality among elderly schizophrenic patients in the present assessment was around 0.015 (0.15 per 1,000 individuals per year) and 0.017 (0.17 per 1,000 individuals per year) among male and female aged patients, respectively, which was significantly lower than the native crude death rate. While the average age of the expired female patients was significantly longer than male cases, the life expectancy of both male and female patients was significantly shorter than the life expectancy of native people. Besides, while among the present sample of old schizophrenics cardiac disease was the main leading cause of death, other causes, like violence, suicide, road traffic accidents, falls, fires, drug use, tuberculosis, drowning, epilepsy, and Parkinson’s disease were not liable at all. Conclusion: While the rate of mortality among aged schizophrenics was significantly lower than the native crude death rate, the age of the expired female patients was significantly longer than the male cases and the life expectancy of both male and female patients was significantly shorter than the life expectancy of native people. Cardiac disorder was the leading cause of death among the present sample of aged schizophrenics.

scholarly journals Ambient Air Pollution and Mortality Rate in Nigeria: An ARDL Approach

2021 ◽  
Vol 1 (4) ◽  
pp. 22-29
Author(s):  
Nuhu Sunday Amos ◽  
Ilemona Adofu
Keyword(s):  
Carbon Dioxide ◽  
Air Pollution ◽  
Mortality Rate ◽  
Life Expectancy ◽  
Death Rate ◽  
Carbon Dioxide Emission ◽  
Ambient Air ◽  
Ambient Air Pollution ◽  
Crude Death Rate ◽  
Negative Effect

The study on ambient air pollution and mortality rate in Nigeria is an attempt to evaluate the effect of ambient air pollution proxied by carbon dioxide on non-accidental, cardiovascular and respiratory disease related mortality in Nigeria from 1970-2019. Time series data adopted from World Development Indicators were analyzed using Auto Regressive Distributed Lag Model. Results suggest a positive relationship between CO2 and crude death rate in Nigeria. Thus, the result of ARDL for lnCruder as the dependent variable showed that carbon dioxide emission was positively related to the crude death rate. Consequently, one unit increase in the quantity of carbon dioxide emission increased the death rate by 19% at lag 1, all things being equal. A similar result was obtained for CO2 and life expectancy where carbon dioxide emission was found to have a negative effect on life expectancy. The study concludes that carbon dioxide emission has a negative effect on human health and causes death in human beings. Therefore, further study is recommended on ways of abating carbon dioxide emissions through the use of technologies that generate less carbon dioxide and the adoption of domestic practices that reduce the quantity of CO2 produced in the environment.

scholarly journals Impact of COVID-19 Mortality on U.S. Life Expectancy by Socioeconomic Rank of County of Residence

2021 ◽  
Vol 5 (Supplement_1) ◽  
pp. 236-236
Author(s):  
Denys Dukhovnov ◽  
Magali Barbieri
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Life Expectancy ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
Socioeconomic Disparities ◽  
National Data ◽  
Disadvantaged Communities ◽  
Life Expectancy At Birth ◽  
The Us ◽  
Spatio Temporal ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Mortality disparities due to COVID-19 pandemic in the US accentuated the gap in the targeted public health and education response among disadvantaged communities. We use county data from John Hopkins University of Medicine in conjunction with county socioeconomic decile rankings, and weekly national data from the Centers for Disease Control to uncover the impact of county-level socioeconomic deprivation on the spatio-temporal dynamic of COVID-19 mortality. We estimate that over the course of 2020, the pandemic reduced the life expectancy at birth by 1.33 years (95% CI 1.0-1.56), and by 0.84 years (95% CI 0.59-1.0) by age 85 across all county SES decile groups, relative to the previous year's projection. The highest losses occurred in counties at the ends of the deprivation spectrum, and least affecting those in its middle. Decomposition of the impact of the COVID-19 mortality by seasonal time periods of 2020 reveals that coastal urban and high-SES counties endured a heavy death toll in the initial stages of the pandemic, though managed to cut it by more than a half by the end of 2020. The least affluent, inland, and rural counties have experienced a dramatic and lasting increase in deaths toward the second half of the year. We find that preexisting socioeconomic disparities before COVID-19 remained in force during the pandemic, leaving populations at all ages residing in underserved communities at a greater risk. This both calls into question and further instructs the ongoing public health interventions enabling more effective and equitable infectious disease mitigation strategies.

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