Tracing the Evolution of Clonal Hematopoiesis to AML Using Longitudinal Pre-Diagnosis Blood Samples

The acquisition of somatic mutations in hematopoietic stem and progenitor cells (HSPCs) is increasingly common with age (`clonal hematopoiesis'). If sequential acquisition and clonal expansion of mutations occurs, progression to Acute Myeloid Leukemia (AML) can occur. While the mutational landscape of clonal hematopoiesis antecedent to AML development has been well-defined (Abelson et al. 2018, Desai et al. 2018), the timing of acquisition and growth dynamics of these high-risk mutations remain largely unknown. At what age are these mutations acquired? Are the fitness effects (growth rates) conferred by specific mutations predictable from person-to-person and how do fitness effects change with additive mutations? Are the clonal dynamics that precede AML development characterised by strong competition between clones (clonal interference)? To answer these questions, we identified 220 women from the United Kingdom Collaborative Trial of Ovarian Cancer Screening (UKCTOCS) who were cancer-free at enrolment but subsequently developed AML during the >12 years follow-up. 50 of these women had annual blood samples collected at multiple time-points pre-AML diagnosis (mean: 5 time-points, range: 2-11). Deep error-corrected duplex sequencing, with a variant allele frequency (VAF) detection limit of 0.1%, was performed on peripheral blood DNA from these women, as well as from age- and timepoint-matched controls who remained blood cancer free. A custom designed next-generation sequencing (NGS) panel was used to enable detection of mutations in 34 clonal hematopoiesis/AML-associated genes, genome-wide mosaic chromosomal alterations (mCAs) and AML-associated translocations. Having samples from multiple timepoints enabled the fitness effects (growth rates) of mutations to be calculated, as well as the additive effect of further mutations. These growth rates, in combination with insights from evolutionary theory, allowed the acquisition time of many mutations to be estimated, with initiating driver mutations often arising in the first 2 decades of life in the pre-AML cases. Growth trajectory dynamics of co-occurring mutations enabled the clonal composition to be inferred in many instances and revealed linear evolution of successive mutations in some pre-AML cases, but a branching pattern with clear evidence of clonal interference in others. Specific variants, which we have previously identified as 'highly fit' in clonal hematopoiesis (Watson et al. 2020), were significantly enriched in pre-AML cases compared to controls and were often detectable at VAFs >10% more than 5 years pre-diagnosis. NPM1 mutations, which characteristically occur `late' in AML development, could be detected as early as 2 years pre-diagnosis, highlighting the benefit afforded by error-corrected low VAF variant calling, particularly in high-risk individuals. Our findings, exploiting longitudinal blood samples collected pre-AML combined with an integrated assessment of multiple types of genetic changes, reveal key insights into the evolutionary dynamics of mutations in the years preceding AML development. Understanding which features distinguish pre-malignant from benign clonal evolution is key for risk stratification of individuals with clonal hematopoiesis to allow rational monitoring and identification of individuals that may benefit from early intervention studies. Figure 1 Figure 1. Disclosures Watson: Johnson & Johnson: Consultancy; Inivata: Consultancy. Menon: Abcodia Ltd: Current holder of individual stocks in a privately-held company. Blundell: Johnson & Johnson: Consultancy; Inivata: Consultancy.

The effect of weak clonal interference on average fitness trajectories in the presence of macroscopic epistasis

Adaptation dynamics on fitness landscapes is often studied theoretically in the strong-selection, weak-mutation (SSWM) regime. However, in a large population, multiple beneficial mutants can emerge before any of them fixes in the population. Competition between mutants is known as clonal interference, and how it affects the form of long-term fitness trajectories in the presence of epistasis is an open question. Here, by considering how changes in fixation probabilities arising from weak clonal interference affect the dynamics of adaptation on fitness-parameterized landscapes, we find that the change in the form of fitness trajectory arises only through changes in the supply of beneficial mutations (or equivalently, the beneficial mutation rate). Furthermore, a depletion of beneficial mutations as a population climbs up the fitness landscape can speed up the functional form of the fitness trajectory, while an enhancement of the beneficial mutation rate does the opposite of slowing down the form of the dynamics. Our findings suggest that by carrying out evolution experiments in both regimes (with and without clonal interference), one could potentially distinguish the different sources of macroscopic epistasis (fitness effect of mutations vs. change in fraction of beneficial mutations).

Following the Trail of One Million Genomes: Footprints of SARS-CoV-2 Adaptation to Humans

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has accumulated genomic mutations at an approximately linear rate since it first infected human populations in late 2019. Controversies remain regarding the identity, proportion, and effects of adaptive mutations as SARS-CoV-2 evolves from a bat- to a human-adapted virus. The potential for vaccine-escape mutations poses additional challenges in pandemic control. Despite being of great interest to therapeutic and vaccine development, human-adaptive mutations in SARS-CoV-2 are masked by a genome-wide linkage disequilibrium under which neutral and even deleterious mutations can reach fixation by chance or through hitchhiking. Furthermore, genome-wide linkage equilibrium imposes clonal interference by which multiple adaptive mutations compete against one another. Informed by insights from microbial experimental evolution, we analyzed close to one million SARS-CoV-2 genomes sequenced during the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic and identified putative human-adaptive mutations according to the rates of synonymous and missense mutations, temporal linkage, and mutation recurrence. Furthermore, we developed a forward-evolution simulator with the realistic SARS-CoV-2 genome structure and base substitution probabilities able to predict viral genome diversity under neutral, background selection, and adaptive evolutionary models. We conclude that adaptive mutations have emerged early, rapidly, and constantly to dominate SARS-CoV-2 populations despite clonal interference and purifying selection. Our analysis underscores a need for genomic surveillance of mutation trajectories at the local level for early detection of adaptive and immune-escape variants. Putative human-adaptive mutations are over-represented in viral proteins interfering host immunity and binding host-cell receptors and thus may serve as priority targets for designing therapeutics and vaccines against human-adapted forms of SARS-CoV-2.

Clonal Interference and Mutation Bias in Small Bacterial Populations in Droplets

Experimental evolution studies have provided key insights into the fundamental mechanisms of evolution. One striking observation is that parallel and convergent evolution during laboratory evolution can be surprisingly common. However, these experiments are typically performed with well-mixed cultures and large effective population sizes, while pathogenic microbes typically experience strong bottlenecks during infection or drug treatment. Yet, our knowledge about adaptation in very small populations, where selection strength and mutation supplies are limited, is scant. In this study, wild-type and mutator strains of the bacterium Escherichia coli were evolved for about 100 generations towards increased resistance to the β-lactam antibiotic cefotaxime in millifluidic droplets of 0.5 µL and effective population size of approximately 27,000 cells. The small effective population size limited the adaptive potential of wild-type populations, where adaptation was limited to inactivating mutations, which caused the increased production of outer-membrane vesicles, leading to modest fitness increases. In contrast, mutator clones with an average of ~30-fold higher mutation rate adapted much faster by acquiring both inactivating mutations of an outer-membrane porin and particularly inactivating and gain-of-function mutations, causing the upregulation or activation of a common efflux pump, respectively. Our results demonstrate how in very small populations, clonal interference and mutation bias together affect the choice of adaptive trajectories by mediating the balance between high-rate and large-benefit mutations.

Polygenic adaptation, clonal interference, and the evolution of mutators in experimental Pseudomonas aeruginosa populations

In bacterial populations, switches in lifestyle from motile, planktonic growth to surface-grown biofilm is associated with persistence in both infections and non-clinical biofilms. Studies have identified the first steps of adaptation to biofilm growth but have yet to replicate the extensive genetic diversity observed in chronic infections or in the natural environment. We conducted a 90-day long evolution experiment with Pseudomonas aeruginosa PA14 in growth media that promotes biofilm formation in either planktonic culture or in a biofilm bead model. Surprisingly, all populations evolved extensive genetic diversity with hundreds of mutations maintained at intermediate frequencies, while fixation events were rare. Instead of the expected few beneficial mutations rising in frequency through successive sweeps, we observe a remarkable 40 genes with parallel mutations spanning both environments and often on coexisting genotypes within a population. Additionally, the evolution of mutator genotypes (mutS or mutL mutator alleles) that rise to high frequencies in as little as 25 days contribute to the extensive genetic variation and strong clonal interference. Parallelism in several transporters (including pitA, pntB, nosD, and pchF) indicate probable adaptation to the arginine media that becomes highly alkaline during growth. Further, genes involved in signal transduction (including gacS, aer2, bdlA, and PA14_71750) reflect likely adaptations to biofilm-inducing conditions. This experiment shows how extensive genetic and phenotypic diversity can arise and persist in microbial populations despite strong selection that would normally purge diversity.ImportanceHow biodiversity arises and is maintained in clonally reproducing organisms like microbes remains unclear. Many models presume that beneficial genotypes will outgrow others and purge variation via selective sweeps. Environmental structure like biofilms may oppose this process and preserve variation. We tested this hypothesis by evolving P. aeruginosa populations in biofilm-promoting media for three months and found both adaptation and diversification that were mostly uninterrupted by fixation events that eliminate diversity. Genetic variation tended to be greater in lines grown using a bead model of biofilm growth but many lineages also persisted in planktonic lines. Convergent evolution affecting dozens of genes indicates that selection acted on a wide variety of traits to improve fitness, causing many adapting lineages to co-occur and persist. This result demonstrates that some environments may expose a large fraction of the genome to selection and select for many adaptations at once, causing enduring diversity.

Molecular signatures of resource competition: clonal interference drives the emergence of ecotypes

Microbial ecosystems harbor an astonishing diversity that can persist for long times. To understand how such diversity is generated and maintained, ecological and evolutionary processes need to be integrated at similar timescales, but this remains a difficult challenge. Here, we extend an ecological model of resource competition to allow for evolution via de novo mutation, focusing on large and rapidly adapting asexual populations. Through numerical and analytical approaches, we characterize adaptation and diversity at different levels and show how clonal interference – the interaction between simultaneously emerging lineages – shapes the eco-evolutionary dynamics. We find that large mutational inputs can foster diversification under sympatry, increasing the probability that phenotypically and genetically distinct clusters arise and stably coexist, constituting an initial form of community. Our findings have implications beyond microbial populations, providing novel insights about the interplay between ecology and evolution in clonal populations.

Mutation bias can shape adaptation in large asexual populations experiencing clonal interference

The extended evolutionary synthesis invokes a role for development in shaping adaptive evolution, which in population genetics terms corresponds to mutation-biased adaptation. Critics have claimed that clonal interference makes mutation-biased adaptation rare. We consider the behaviour of two simultaneously adapting traits, one with larger mutation rate U , the other with larger selection coefficient s , using asexual travelling wave models. We find that adaptation is dominated by whichever trait has the faster rate of adaptation v in isolation, with the other trait subject to evolutionary stalling. Reviewing empirical claims for mutation-biased adaptation, we find that not all occur in the ‘origin-fixation’ regime of population genetics where v is only twice as sensitive to s as to U . In some cases, differences in U are at least ten to twelve times larger than differences in s , as needed to cause mutation-biased adaptation even in the ‘multiple mutations’ regime. Surprisingly, when U > s in the ‘diffusive-mutation’ regime, the required sensitivity ratio is also only two, despite pervasive clonal interference. Given two traits with identical v , the benefit of having higher s is surprisingly small, occurring largely when one trait is at the boundary between the origin-fixation and multiple mutations regimes.

Selective Interference and the Evolution of Sex

Selection acts upon genes linked together on chromosomes. This physical connection reduces the efficiency by which selection can act because, in the absence of sex, alleles must rise and fall together in frequency with the genome in which they are found. This selective interference underlies such phenomena as clonal interference and Muller’s Ratchet and is broadly termed Hill-Robertson interference. In this review, I examine the potential for selective interference to account for the evolution and maintenance of sex, discussing the positive and negative evidence from both theoretical and empirical studies, and highlight the gaps that remain.

Rapid emergence of clonal interference during malaria parasite cultivation

Laboratory cultivation of the malaria parasite Plasmodium falciparum has underpinned nearly all advances in malariology in the past 30 years. When freshly isolated clinical isolates are adapted to in vitro culture mutations rapidly fix increasing the parasite growth rate and stability. While the dynamics of culture adaptation are increasingly well characterized, we know little about the extent of genomic variation that arises and spreads during long term culture. To address this we cloned the 3D7 reference strain and maintained a culture for ~84 asexual cycles (167 days). Growth rate of the culture population increased 1.14-fold over this timeframe. We used single cell genome sequencing of parasites at cycles 21 and 84 to measure the accumulation of diversity in vitro . This parasite population showed strong signals of adaptation across this time frame. By cycle 84 two dominant clades had arisen and were segregating with the dynamics of clonal interference. This highlights the continual process of adaptation in malaria parasites, even in parasites which have been extensively adapted to long term culture.